What remains clear is that even if he does emerge victorious, as the latest polls suggest, it will be in the midst of the biggest political backlash of his life, one that may prove more consequential in shaping his second term than whatever win he can muster on the ballot.
“The last ... years have been a huge disappointment, to Afghans and the West,” said one European diplomatic source.
“People hold him personally responsible. They may vote for him, but make no mistake, they are electing him by default,” she said.
Gone is the man who once symbolized national unity, the politician installed by the West after it ousted the Taliban and framed him as a dream come true.
Back then, Mr. Karzai sounded all the right notes on issues ranging from security to social reform – in impeccable English, no less. Even designer Tom Ford seemed to be on his side, branding him “the chicest man on the planet.”
Now, Mr. Karzai is under fire from all sides.
He has been blamed for failing to suppress the Taliban insurgency that rages in the south, turning a blind eye to Afghanistan's burgeoning drug trade and tolerating rampant corruption.
He is a President, who, these days, rarely leaves his palace. Some observers suggest the isolation has led to soul-searching.
“If he does win, my sense is it will actually not be more of the same,” said Chris Alexander, who served as Canada's ambassador to Afghanistan during the country's first presidential election.
He recalled the mood at that time as “nothing short of euphoric ... as though everybody had just accomplished the impossible.”
This time around it feels more like a race against time, with the future of Afghanistan hanging in the balance.
In Kabul, the prevailing mood among Western officials is one of resignation.
The sense of hope that was the hallmark of the last election has been displaced by frustration over Mr. Karzai's failures.
Diplomatic sources, who spoke to The Globe and Mail on the condition they would not be named because they did not want to comment publicly on possible outcomes before the vote, said that Mr. Karzai is under intense pressure from the West – particularly NATO countries – to deliver on a set list of priorities within the first six months of a second term or face a range of consequences, including the possible withdrawal of aid and military support.
“The President has been very much made aware of these expectations,” said a source with the United Nations, who has been in Afghanistan for nearly five years. “He knows what he needs to do.”
A sense of urgency has taken hold among Afghanistan's key NATO supporters, “the patience of a lot of his former allies has run out,” a former Western diplomat said.
Negotiating peace with the Taliban tops the list of priorities, through direct talks or finding other ways to diffuse support for the insurgency through social reform.
While Mr. Karzai has made sporadic gestures towards dialogue with the more moderate elements of the Taliban, through a Saudi-sponsored mediation process and also the promise to launch an insurgent rehabilitation program, his efforts have been seen as slow and ineffective.
“He will want to cut some kind of deal with the Taliban right away so the insurgency crests and falls away on his watch,” said one former envoy, who has spent nearly twenty years in Afghanistan.
“Once [the Taliban leadership] sees he's properly installed and he won't disappear, they may be inclined to deal with him,” he said.
The second issue Mr. Karzai is under pressure to immediately tackle is corruption.
Senior American officials have already expressed interest in a post-election plan for Afghanistan that would establish a chief executive to serve beneath him if he wins a second term.
The post is designed for a technocrat, such as Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister who is challenging Mr. Karzai for the presidency.
The overtures, first floated 10 days ago, were seen by some as a tacit endorsement of Mr. Karzai from Washington.
The timing coincided with polling that showed he would likely win a second term.
“There is this widespread view that even if Karzai is corrupt, it's better to keep him in power because at least his pockets are already full,” said a European diplomatic source.
The list of benchmarks against which Mr. Karzai's performance will be judged is long: “He needs to lock into a structured, large-scale institution-building agenda. The army and police need to double in size. The justice system needs to start delivering not just policy papers, but convictions against corrupt officials and terrorists,” a former UN official said.
The larger question is whether a re-elected Karzai can deliver.
Many argue the mathematics of how he does in Thursday's vote will have an effect on “what sort of Karzai we will get,” as one analyst put it.
If he wins an outright majority, in the wake of accusations of electoral fraud and a flurry of backroom deals, some observers say he will feel invincible to his critics and it will be business as usual.
They argue a runoff vote is in the best interests of Afghanistan and would serve as a wake-up call to Mr. Karzai.
Others say he needs a strong mandate in the first round to effectively govern, and warn a runoff would force him to make promises to his opponents in exchange for their political support, which he would ultimately have to repay.
However, under the terms of the Afghan constitution, Mr. Karzai cannot run for a third term, and would presumably be freer to impose policy during a second term with no pressure for re-election.
Friends and allies say for Mr. Karzai, a second term is about his legacy.
“He knows things need to change. He wants a second chance and promises to bring big changes to the government,” said Hajji Abdul Baqi, a 60-year old Kandahari who has been friends with Mr. Karzai for 30 years and had tea with him two weeks ago.
“Maybe he will fail, but Karzai is not worried he will fail. He worries about the foreigners.”
