Aldridge plans to shoot more 3s

[MARIS61]

Well played.

Just so nobody thinks I meant Babbitt, I meant Maurice Lucas.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Just so nobody thinks I meant Babbitt, I meant Maurice Lucas.

Lucas shot threes?

 

[STOMP]

Well it's not like he's in rebounding position when he's shooting those 18' jumpers.

and neither is the opponent's best Bigs defender, who is also likely their best rebounder.

What happens when the cat is away?

STOMP

 

[huevonkiller]

It makes sense, but give him some time to adjust.

 

[blue9]

and neither is the opponent's best Bigs defender, who is also likely their best rebounder.

Well, I suppose. Because he's over doubling Lillard. But he has a clear path to the hoop to get the rebound - once he sees Lillard passing the ball he's hedging back towards the hoop.

 

[magnifier661]

and neither is the opponent's best Bigs defender, who is also likely their best rebounder.

What happens when the cat is away?

STOMP

I actually think it's a good move if Aldridge can hit them at a 38% skid. The best defender on the other team will have a tough time. I expect more zone from the beginning, then have to get up on Aldridge when he's wide open and draining threes.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Last year LMA shot 510 shots from 16' to 23', (6.9 per game) making 41.8% of them. The next highest total was Demar DeRozan (457, or 5.6 per game) and then Steph Curry and K*be at 384 (5.0 per game).

So even if LMA just maintained being as voluminous a chucker as Steph/K*be/DeRozan, and took those extra 2 shots per game from 3pt land instead of where he does, he would only have to shoot 27.9% on them to be more effective (and help the team more). If he was at, say, 33% instead of 28%, then he scores 30+ more per year (about half a point per game). And that's IF HE STILL CHUCKS AS MUCH AS K*BE AND STEPH CURRY!

Now, LMA isn't the only big who likes the long jumper. KG, Bosh, Melo, Horford and Scola are all in the 300's (about 4 shots per game) from there. But they all shoot better than LMA does. KG and Scola shoot 45 and 46%. Bosh shoots 52% on his mid-range shots. If LMA was able to curtail his 16-23' to KG/Bosh levels, and mix 2 more shots inside and 2 outside, it would be great. Assuming his career percentages (and adding in a 34% 3pt%, which personally I think is low), he would trade 7 16'-23' shots per game with a 41.8% clip (netting 5.8 ppg, on average) for 2 shots 0-15 feet (53.6%), 3 (16'-23') at 41.8%, and 2 3pters at 34%, those 7 shots would go up to 6.8 ppg. I'm not talking about turning him into a low post player, or getting any better at shooting than he already is. If he just took a step back twice a game, and a step in twice a game, he (and therefore, the Blazers) score 0.9 ppg more.

 

[dviss1]

Last year LMA shot 510 shots from 16' to 23', (6.9 per game) making 41.8% of them. The next highest total was Demar DeRozan (457, or 5.6 per game) and then Steph Curry and K*be at 384 (5.0 per game).

So even if LMA just maintained being as voluminous a chucker as Steph/K*be/DeRozan, and took those extra 2 shots per game from 3pt land instead of where he does, he would only have to shoot 27.9% on them to be more effective (and help the team more). If he was at, say, 33% instead of 28%, then he scores 30+ more per year (about half a point per game). And that's IF HE STILL CHUCKS AS MUCH AS K*BE AND STEPH CURRY!

Now, LMA isn't the only big who likes the long jumper. KG, Bosh, Melo, Horford and Scola are all in the 300's (about 4 shots per game) from there. But they all shoot better than LMA does. KG and Scola shoot 45 and 46%. Bosh shoots 52% on his mid-range shots. If LMA was able to curtail his 16-23' to KG/Bosh levels, and mix 2 more shots inside and 2 outside, it would be great. Assuming his career percentages (and adding in a 34% 3pt%, which personally I think is low), he would trade 7 16'-23' shots per game with a 41.8% clip (netting 5.8 ppg, on average) for 2 shots 0-15 feet (53.6%), 3 (16'-23') at 41.8%, and 2 3pters at 34%, those 7 shots would go up to 6.8 ppg. I'm not talking about turning him into a low post player, or getting any better at shooting than he already is. If he just took a step back twice a game, and a step in twice a game, he (and therefore, the Blazers) score 0.9 ppg more.

That's a hell of a breakdown. Great post. Repped.

 

[blue9]

Repped!

 

[Natebishop3]

Last year LMA shot 510 shots from 16' to 23', (6.9 per game) making 41.8% of them. The next highest total was Demar DeRozan (457, or 5.6 per game) and then Steph Curry and K*be at 384 (5.0 per game).

So even if LMA just maintained being as voluminous a chucker as Steph/K*be/DeRozan, and took those extra 2 shots per game from 3pt land instead of where he does, he would only have to shoot 27.9% on them to be more effective (and help the team more). If he was at, say, 33% instead of 28%, then he scores 30+ more per year (about half a point per game). And that's IF HE STILL CHUCKS AS MUCH AS K*BE AND STEPH CURRY!

Now, LMA isn't the only big who likes the long jumper. KG, Bosh, Melo, Horford and Scola are all in the 300's (about 4 shots per game) from there. But they all shoot better than LMA does. KG and Scola shoot 45 and 46%. Bosh shoots 52% on his mid-range shots. If LMA was able to curtail his 16-23' to KG/Bosh levels, and mix 2 more shots inside and 2 outside, it would be great. Assuming his career percentages (and adding in a 34% 3pt%, which personally I think is low), he would trade 7 16'-23' shots per game with a 41.8% clip (netting 5.8 ppg, on average) for 2 shots 0-15 feet (53.6%), 3 (16'-23') at 41.8%, and 2 3pters at 34%, those 7 shots would go up to 6.8 ppg. I'm not talking about turning him into a low post player, or getting any better at shooting than he already is. If he just took a step back twice a game, and a step in twice a game, he (and therefore, the Blazers) score 0.9 ppg more.

So let me get this straight.... LMA shot the most jumpers from 16-23' in the league?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Yes. By a shot and a half a game over DeRozan, 2 over K*be/Steph, and 3 shots per game over guys like KG/Bosh/Melo/Horford/Scola

 

[Natebishop3]

Yes. By a shot and a half a game over DeRozan, 2 over K*be/Steph, and 3 shots per game over guys like KG/Bosh/Melo/Horford/Scola

That's fucked up.

No, seriously.... that's fucked up.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Here's another fun stat...LMA took more 16'-23' jumpers last year (510) than the following bigs took...period (all in 74 games or more, same as LMA played--no counting Rondo and Nash, who were injured for half the year, but also qualify)

Kuofos
Taj Gibson
DeAndre Jordan
Andrew Nicholson
Ed Davis
Glen Davis
Elton Brand
Tyson Chandler

If you want to make it "less than 6.9 shots per game", you can also add guys like Drummond, Kanter, Valanciunas...

 

[blue9]

That's fucked up.

No, seriously.... that's fucked up.

Are you starting to understand why I dislike him as a player so much?
Also, for some added color, Rondo shot 48% from that range. Rajon Rondo. The guy that everyone thinks of as a poor shooter.
When sorted for FG% from that range you have to go THREE PAGES DEEP before you find LMA - I believe he ranks #100 (after you exclude players playing <15mpg):
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=20&mins=15

 

[Natebishop3]

Are you starting to understand why I dislike him as a player so much?
Also, for some added color, Rondo shot 48% from that range. Rajon Rondo. The guy that everyone thinks of as a poor shooter.
When sorted for FG% from that range you have to go THREE PAGES DEEP before you find LMA - I believe he ranks #100 (after you exclude players playing <15mpg):
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=20&mins=15

Hey, I've been in favor of trading him.

 

[blue9]

Hey, I've been in favor of trading him.

Oh, okay. Rats, I thought we had a convert!

 

[dviss1]

Last year LMA shot 510 shots from 16' to 23', (6.9 per game) making 41.8% of them. The next highest total was Demar DeRozan (457, or 5.6 per game) and then Steph Curry and K*be at 384 (5.0 per game).

So even if LMA just maintained being as voluminous a chucker as Steph/K*be/DeRozan, and took those extra 2 shots per game from 3pt land instead of where he does, he would only have to shoot 27.9% on them to be more effective (and help the team more). If he was at, say, 33% instead of 28%, then he scores 30+ more per year (about half a point per game). And that's IF HE STILL CHUCKS AS MUCH AS K*BE AND STEPH CURRY!

Now, LMA isn't the only big who likes the long jumper. KG, Bosh, Melo, Horford and Scola are all in the 300's (about 4 shots per game) from there. But they all shoot better than LMA does. KG and Scola shoot 45 and 46%. Bosh shoots 52% on his mid-range shots. If LMA was able to curtail his 16-23' to KG/Bosh levels, and mix 2 more shots inside and 2 outside, it would be great. Assuming his career percentages (and adding in a 34% 3pt%, which personally I think is low), he would trade 7 16'-23' shots per game with a 41.8% clip (netting 5.8 ppg, on average) for 2 shots 0-15 feet (53.6%), 3 (16'-23') at 41.8%, and 2 3pters at 34%, those 7 shots would go up to 6.8 ppg. I'm not talking about turning him into a low post player, or getting any better at shooting than he already is. If he just took a step back twice a game, and a step in twice a game, he (and therefore, the Blazers) score 0.9 ppg more.

I'm curious to see 12'-13' vs 11'-12'. I wonder how much of Stotts' system has to do with it.

 

[HailBlazers]

I'm curious to see 12'-13' vs 11'-12'. I wonder how much of Stotts' system has to do with it.

Likewise interested, and am sure that the hip surgery played a role as well.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm not positive this is what you were asking for, but let me know if it's not:

His percentages have been remarkably consistent--setting aside his rookie year, he's been between 40.3% and 42.8% every year in his career. Even his rookie year was 39%. He's not getting better, or worse.

Attempts by year:

2006-7 147 (3.0/game)
2007-8 357 (4.7/game)
2008-9 436 (5.4/game)
2009-10 369 (4.7/game)
2010-11 339 (4.4/game)
2011-12 304 (5.6/game)
2012-13 510 (6.9/game)

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Interesting analysis. The problem however is that he is taking more CONTESTED shots from that range than the other players which is why his efficiency is so low. He's posting up a godawful distance from the basket.

Last year LMA shot 510 shots from 16' to 23', (6.9 per game) making 41.8% of them. The next highest total was Demar DeRozan (457, or 5.6 per game) and then Steph Curry and K*be at 384 (5.0 per game).

So even if LMA just maintained being as voluminous a chucker as Steph/K*be/DeRozan, and took those extra 2 shots per game from 3pt land instead of where he does, he would only have to shoot 27.9% on them to be more effective (and help the team more). If he was at, say, 33% instead of 28%, then he scores 30+ more per year (about half a point per game). And that's IF HE STILL CHUCKS AS MUCH AS K*BE AND STEPH CURRY!

Now, LMA isn't the only big who likes the long jumper. KG, Bosh, Melo, Horford and Scola are all in the 300's (about 4 shots per game) from there. But they all shoot better than LMA does. KG and Scola shoot 45 and 46%. Bosh shoots 52% on his mid-range shots. If LMA was able to curtail his 16-23' to KG/Bosh levels, and mix 2 more shots inside and 2 outside, it would be great. Assuming his career percentages (and adding in a 34% 3pt%, which personally I think is low), he would trade 7 16'-23' shots per game with a 41.8% clip (netting 5.8 ppg, on average) for 2 shots 0-15 feet (53.6%), 3 (16'-23') at 41.8%, and 2 3pters at 34%, those 7 shots would go up to 6.8 ppg. I'm not talking about turning him into a low post player, or getting any better at shooting than he already is. If he just took a step back twice a game, and a step in twice a game, he (and therefore, the Blazers) score 0.9 ppg more.

 

[blue9]

Interesting analysis. The problem however is that he is taking more CONTESTED shots from that range than the other players which is why his efficiency is so low. He's posting up a godawful distance from the basket.

I don't believe that's the case. In all the games I watch he's generally wide open when shooting those shots. Those shots generally come about after LMA sets a screen for Lillard, and Lillard pulls a double-team resulting in LMA being wide open at the top of the key. Rarely is he shooting contested shots from that range.

 

[magnifier661]

I'm not positive this is what you were asking for, but let me know if it's not:

His percentages have been remarkably consistent--setting aside his rookie year, he's been between 40.3% and 42.8% every year in his career. Even his rookie year was 39%. He's not getting better, or worse.

Attempts by year:

2006-7 147 (3.0/game)
2007-8 357 (4.7/game)
2008-9 436 (5.4/game)
2009-10 369 (4.7/game)
2010-11 339 (4.4/game)
2011-12 304 (5.6/game)
2012-13 510 (6.9/game)

The more shot attempts last season seemed like many variables.

We had zero bench, no one to demand the double and the pace was much faster than the Nate years.

 

[Sinobas]

That may actually be better than his mid range game. If he only shoots 33% from 3pt range, it's much better than the 42% he makes mid range.

 

[Natebishop3]

The more shot attempts last season seemed like many variables.

We had zero bench, no one to demand the double and the pace was much faster than the Nate years.

I don't think that had as much to do with it as our new system under Stotts. It was pretty obvious that the coach was trying to make him into Dirk light.

 

[STOMP]

So let me get this straight.... LMA shot the most jumpers from 16-23' in the league?

well yeah, of course he did. Again he was among the league leaders in minutes played and he's the main option on a team that needs him on the High Post as they've no other decent options to give them proper spacing. 16-23' jumpers are the shots that High Post players take. With a rookie PG being the only off the dribble threat, PDX really struggled to get good open looks. While it would be awesome if LA could be a lot better and maybe jump over his man and dunk from the 3 point line (ideally while doing a flip) or back down the world on the low block, it remains a positive that he can get off a reasonable jumper on just about any single coverage as the clock winds down.

It appears again that he's their only real High Post option. I've pined for one to be added to allow LA to shine on the low block again but oh well...

STOMP

 

[Natebishop3]

well yeah, of course he did. Again he was among the league leaders in minutes played and he's the main option on a team that needs him on the High Post as they've no other decent options to give them proper spacing. 16-23' jumpers are the shots that High Post players take. With a rookie PG being the only off the dribble threat, PDX really struggled to get good open looks. While it would be awesome if LA could be a lot better and maybe jump over his man and dunk from the 3 point line (ideally while doing a flip) or back down the world on the low block, it remains a positive that he can get off a reasonable jumper on just about any single coverage as the clock winds down.

It appears again that he's their only real High Post option. I've pined for one to be added to allow LA to shine on the low block again but oh well...

STOMP

That just really surprised me. He was #1 by a large margin. I would have figured it would be a guard.

 

[handiman]

That just really surprised me. He was #1 by a large margin. I would have figured it would be a guard.

I'm surprised you're surprised by that. Guards don't play a mid-range game anymore. It's all deep 3's or drives to the hoop. Mid-range shooters are mostly high post bigs now.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm surprised you're surprised by that. Guards don't play a mid-range game anymore. It's all deep 3's or drives to the hoop. Mid-range shooters are mostly high post bigs now.

Actually, of the top 20 by volume, 9 are bigs (LMA, Dante Cunningham (?!), Jefferson, Melo, Horford, Bosh, Garnett, Scola, Josh Smith) and 11 guards (Derozan, Steph, K*be, Monta Ellis, JR Smith, Ridnour(?!), Klay, Westbrook, Jamal Crawford, Evan Turner, Jrue Holiday).

WTH is Minny doing giving 700 16'-23' shots to Dante Cunningham (39%) and Luke Ridnour (45%)?

 

[Pinwheel1]

WTH is Minny doing giving 700 16'-23' shots to Dante Cunningham (39%) and Luke Ridnour (45%)?

Was that last year? Minnesota didn't have many options last year.

As far as LMA taking a lot of mid range shots, who else did we have besides Dame? I hope Batum will take more this year as well as CJ, but hell we lack mid range shooters as well. LMA and Damian are our best.
Wes, Mo, Wright...all volume 3 pt shooters. Although Mo has the ability to hit the pull up mid range shot. Meyers as well, but how many shots will he get?

 

[BBert]

I don't think that had as much to do with it as our new system under Stotts. It was pretty obvious that the coach was trying to make him into Dirk light.

My impression as well.

As others have said, if he makes a few uncontested threes at a decent clip, instead of taking the same contested shot closer in at a tepid rate, it's not all bad. I liked Brian's suggestion that he replace four of his mid-range shots with two threes and two in the post.