Allen Crabbe to Undergo Foot Surgery

[e_blazer]

So, you're saying Olshey gets the Blazers under the luxury tax this season? If so, how do you think he accomplishes this?

Denny's earlier post said:

I am counting on NO shedding at least $10M worth of salaries (aside from Ezeili, Connaughton, and Quarterman) this summer and trade deadline. Something like Leonard and Davis gone for cap space. That gets us ~$5-6M in room to pay rookies and minimum contract vets and MLE and so on.

Personally, I still think the key to getting under the $122M LT threshold is moving Crabbe this summer in an unbalanced trade. Hopefully, Brooklyn still wants him enough to take his contract. If worse came to worst, there's also the stretch provision that could be used to waive him and spread his cap hit out over seven years at something like $8M per year. That would be a bitter pill to swallow, and probably grounds for a firing your GM, but it would get the Blazers under the threshold in combination with dumping Ezeli.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I already explained how.

He loses $10M to start with by releasing Ezeli and the other two nonguaranteed contracts.

Leonard and Davis for cap space gets another ~$15.5M

From $137M (over the LT) to $137M - $10M - $15.5M = $111.5M (under the LT)

Give or take a $million

Hmm...I can see someone taking Davis, but you honestly think there's a market out there for Leonard?

Personally, I don't see it.

BTW, that plan (assuming we use all 3 draft picks) leaves us with 12 players on the roster.

 

[BBert]

Once Crabbe gets his foot healed properly, he's going to be defensive juggernaut, and better off the dribble.

Right? Right?

Left?

 

[Orion Bailey]

Olshey stacked a lot of chips on Crabbe and Leonard taking big steps forward and being, if not quite stars, top-end complementary players. He also apparently misjudged Turner as such a player (I can't imagine he thought Turner had major steps left to take in his development) while Turner is good as a low-paid reserve, not as an Andre Iguodala type.

If those three players were extremely high-quality players, this would be an expensive but really good team. But as it appears that Olshey's bets look likely (at this point) to be losers, it's just an expensive and mediocre team. (Mediocre only due to Nurkic who is still on a rookie-level deal--once Nurkic gets his next deal, this team will be insanely expensive for mediocrity.)

Adding Nurks salary and play ONLY ups the expense but not the level of play?

Small sample size, but when Nurk was here and playing we were far better than mediocre.....

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I was using Reddick as an example because its easy to compare. Crabbe got paid on potential, which is what usually happens with young players. You said Redick produces at 1.5x that of Crabbe http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Allen Crabbe&player_id1_select=Allen Crabbe&player_id1=crabbal01&player_id2_hint=J.J. Redick&player_id2_select=J.J. Redick&player_id2=redicjj01 No he doesn't. Pretty much all Reddick has on Crabbe is the fact he gets more shots and gets one more assist a game. Reddick has him barely in ORTG and DRTG Every other category Crabbe beats Reddick out in, no matter if you look at per 36 or 100 possessions. That is with Crabbes 2 very lack luster starting seasons in while Reddick has 10 years of solid play to outweigh his first three seasons.
I think we overpaid Crabbe but I dont' think he will be hard to move especially since teams that want him will look at him as a starter while we have him in a bench roll. The SG/SF positions aren't exactly stacked in todays NBA, lots of teams have a need at one of those two holes and with how valued the 3p shot is getting elite 3p shooters will become more valuable. Hell WoJ said we had teams calling about Crabbe at the deadline so I don't think Crabbes contract is going to be an albatross around this teams neck, I think we move him fairly easily if we need to.

great post.

This seems to be ignored by some. If you want to compare Crabbe to someone, compare his to other FAs from last year. Or, compare his to KCP who will likely get the same or more $$$ than Crabbe.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I already explained how.

He loses $10M to start with by releasing Ezeli and the other two nonguaranteed contracts.

Leonard and Davis for cap space gets another ~$15.5M

From $137M (over the LT) to $137M - $10M - $15.5M = $111.5M (under the LT)

Give or take a $million

I think you need to add about $7 million to your numbers.

I doubt if the Blazers release Connaughton. I think the coaching staff and his teammates like the way he fits in with the team and the offensive schemes. When he was pressed into duty, he seemed to fit in just fine. At ~$1.5 million, I think they are grooming him as a potential cheap Crabbe replacement. As long as he can knock down the wide open catch and shoot 3, (which he has shown he can do in a limited sample size), I think he's actually better than Crabbe. He's a better rebounder and better passer. He's less one-dimensional than Crabbe. So far, through two seasons, his career trajectory mimics Crabbe's very closely. It was during Crabbe's third season that he started to get significant minutes. If we can move Crabbe, this could be that season for Connaughton.

Also, we will have a little over $5 million in cap holds/guaranteed contracts for our three draft picks (if we don't trade them).

Rosters are expanding to 17 next season. We will need cheap players to fill out those roster spots. You don't have to have 17 players on your roster, but the point is to allow the team more flexibility in using the G League for development of their young players. You won't need to cut those guys to clear roster spots like you did in the past.

You also assume we can dump both Leonard and Davis on other teams without taking back any salary. I'm not sure that is realistic.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Once Crabbe gets his foot healed properly, he's going to be defensive juggernaut, and better off the dribble.

Right? Right?

Left?

That's the most disappointing thing about this entire thread. Crabbe has so many areas of his game he needs to improve, losing out on part, or most, of a summer of development work is a big set back. I'd love nothing more to see Crabbe show improvement in his ball handling and ability to create an occasional shot for himself. Basically, to become something other than a one-dimensional catch and shoot player that is totally reliant on his teammates to create shots for him.

Take a page out of Wes Mattthews' off season routine and come back every fall with one new offensive skill. For someone who is a 3-point specialist, a one dribble step back jumper would be a nice addition.

Last summer he got paid and, disappointingly, did not use the summer to add any new skills to his very limited game.

Any improvement Crabbe makes helps the team. Either he becomes a better player that helps the team win more, or he increases his trade value, making it easier to move him.

So, back to the original subject, I wish Crabbe a most speedy and complete recovery from his surgery. Hope to see him in the gym working on his game ASAP.

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

Hmm...I can see someone taking Davis, but you honestly think there's a market out there for Leonard?

Personally, I don't see it.

BTW, that plan (assuming we use all 3 draft picks) leaves us with 12 players on the roster.

And $5M in LT space and exceptions (MLE, perhaps BAE, to sign our own draft picks) to use that space. I don't remember the Blazers using the BAE last season.

I don't assume there's no market for Leonard. Worst case is he'd be used as cap ballast in a trade of some sort. Plus we have draft picks to sweeten a deal, if necessary.

 

[Denny Crane]

I think you need to add about $7 million to your numbers.

I doubt if the Blazers release Connaughton. I think the coaching staff and his teammates like the way he fits in with the team and the offensive schemes. When he was pressed into duty, he seemed to fit in just fine. At ~$1.5 million, I think they are grooming him as a potential cheap Crabbe replacement. As long as he can knock down the wide open catch and shoot 3, (which he has shown he can do in a limited sample size), I think he's actually better than Crabbe. He's a better rebounder and better passer. He's less one-dimensional than Crabbe. So far, through two seasons, his career trajectory mimics Crabbe's very closely. It was during Crabbe's third season that he started to get significant minutes. If we can move Crabbe, this could be that season for Connaughton.

Also, we will have a little over $5 million in cap holds/guaranteed contracts for our three draft picks (if we don't trade them).

Rosters are expanding to 17 next season. We will need cheap players to fill out those roster spots. You don't have to have 17 players on your roster, but the point is to allow the team more flexibility in using the G League for development of their young players. You won't need to cut those guys to clear roster spots like you did in the past.

You also assume we can dump both Leonard and Davis on other teams without taking back any salary. I'm not sure that is realistic.

BNM

You don't pay luxury tax on cap holds.

 

[PDXFonz]

There's much worse cap hits than a 25 year old 7 footer who can hit 3s.

 

[Minstrel]

Adding Nurks salary and play ONLY ups the expense but not the level of play?

Small sample size, but when Nurk was here and playing we were far better than mediocre.....

Perhaps. The team was way below mediocre before Nurkic. They had a well above-par record with him, but against a soft stretch in the schedule. I don't think the team is likely to win at that rate for a full year. And if we assume Nurkic will miss some games to injury, you'd adjust the wins down a bit. My main point is that even with Nurkic, this isn't particularly close to a contender as constructed. If it were, the expense wouldn't be a big deal. And Nurkic's contract status is a hidden time bomb--at some point, the team will have to pay him way more, but that won't add any talent, it'll just keep Nurkic. So future flexibility to add pieces around this core seems like a pipe dream right now.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

And $5M in LT space and exceptions (MLE, perhaps BAE, to sign our own draft picks) to use that space. I don't remember the Blazers using the BAE last season.

I don't assume there's no market for Leonard. Worst case is he'd be used as cap ballast in a trade of some sort. Plus we have draft picks to sweeten a deal, if necessary.

Under your plan, assuming we're able to deal Davis/Leonard for nothing, and counting the 3 draft picks, we'd only be about 1.5M under the tax with the 12 players that would be on the roster. Use of those exceptions would put us back over the tax again, and actually would hard cap us at the apron.

 

[Boob-No-More]

You don't pay luxury tax on cap holds.

You do when those cap holds become guaranteed contracts and all 1st round picks automatically get guaranteed contracts. Even if you cut a first rounder, you still pay his guaranteed rookie scale contract and it still counts against the luxury tax.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Under your plan, assuming we're able to deal Davis/Leonard for nothing, and counting the 3 draft picks, we'd only be about 1.5M under the tax with the 12 players that would be on the roster. Use of those exceptions would put us back over the tax again, and actually would hard cap us at the apron.

That $1.5 million would allow us to retain Connaughton and be just a hair under the tax threshold with 13 players under contract.

But, of course that assume we dump Davis and Meyers and take $0 salary in return. Far from a given.

I still think moving Crabbe and/or Turner is our best option to postpone being a tax payer for another year. Too bad Crabbe is injured right now. We could always wait and try to move one of those two at the trade deadline, but every other team will know we are desperate to unload them. So, we might not get the kind of offer we need. If we wait until the deadline we might only get offers that require us to take back an undesirable contract in return.

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

Under your plan, assuming we're able to deal Davis/Leonard for nothing, and counting the 3 draft picks, we'd only be about 1.5M under the tax with the 12 players that would be on the roster. Use of those exceptions would put us back over the tax again, and actually would hard cap us at the apron.

View attachment 14264

That assumes we keep/use the draft picks and not trade them, or not draft and eurostash them.

Like I said, there's $5-6M under the LT for NO to deal.

 

[Cippy91]

I hate this news. Wanted to get rid of him. So over rated by some people on here. I had hopes for him last season but this season he never made the jump, now he is expected back in time for training camp, great wont be improving on any aspect of his game. Spends more time on his hair than his actual game. That contract...

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That assumes we keep/use the draft picks and not trade them, or not draft and eurostash them.

Like I said, there's $5-6M under the LT for NO to deal.

And if we don't use them, them we have even more roster spots to fill. Not likely that they'll be able to do it much cheaper than worth rookie contracts.

 

[Denny Crane]

And if we don't use them, them we have even more roster spots to fill. Not likely that they'll be able to do it much cheaper than worth rookie contracts.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16







I believe Layman has a guaranteed contract.

 

[Rhal]

Perhaps. The team was way below mediocre before Nurkic. They had a well above-par record with him, but against a soft stretch in the schedule. I don't think the team is likely to win at that rate for a full year. And if we assume Nurkic will miss some games to injury, you'd adjust the wins down a bit. My main point is that even with Nurkic, this isn't particularly close to a contender as constructed. If it were, the expense wouldn't be a big deal. And Nurkic's contract status is a hidden time bomb--at some point, the team will have to pay him way more, but that won't add any talent, it'll just keep Nurkic. So future flexibility to add pieces around this core seems like a pipe dream right now.

We will just turn into what most veteran NBA playoff teams do after there good players get paid and thats a team with 2 or 3 large contracts that just seems to rotate role players around every year. Pretty much what the Spurs have done for years, what OKC did before Durant left, what the Clippers have been doing for years, what Dallas did for a long time as well. I'm sure the East did it as well but I havent' had any caffeine yet so I can't think of anyone besides the Heat that did it.

 

[Minstrel]

We will just turn into what most veteran NBA playoff teams do after there good players get paid and thats a team with 2 or 3 large contracts that just seems to rotate role players around every year. Pretty much what the Spurs have done for years, what OKC did before Durant left, what the Clippers have been doing for years, what Dallas did for a long time as well. I'm sure the East did it as well but I havent' had any caffeine yet so I can't think of anyone besides the Heat that did it.

Those teams were contenders with just their core players and only needed to replace their cheap players, when they got expensive and left, with new cheap players. The Blazers aren't contenders with their existing core players and they massively overpaid for production they should be getting from cheap players putting them in a cap and tax vice that makes roster adjustment extremely hard.

To put it another way, if Lillard/McCollum/Nurkic alone made the team a title contender and then the rest of their players were cheap, but they were prepared to let those currently cheap players go when they got expensive to get "new, cheap Crabbe," "new, cheap Turner," etc, I could see the comparison. Instead, they're paying Crabbe and Turner like core pieces (and Leonard like a really good reserve) and that kills their ability to retool like those teams you mentioned. And even if they did manage to retool, they're retooling a team that isn't all that close to championship-caliber.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

View attachment 14279

View attachment 14280

View attachment 14281

I believe Layman has a guaranteed contract.

Yes, I understand that minimum contracts exist. Also, I realized that Spotrac didn't include Napier on the 2017-18 roster, so that's another guaranteed spot that I missed.

But, for the sake of argument, let's pretend that Olshey deals Davis/Leonard for nothing, cuts the NGC's, trades/stashes all 3 first round picks, and fills a spot with a player on a rookie minimum deal. How much space is left under the luxury tax line at that point for the 12th roster spot (the minimum required)? $4.27M. And there's no way any free agents of any quality come to Portland for that.



But sure, if we can find a taker for some of our dreck, cut another 20% of the roster, and don't use any picks--Neil has $4M under the tax line to deal with. But when was the last time a team went through an entire season with only 12 players on the roster--especially considering rosters are actually being expanded to 17 this season? It's a completely unrealistic scenario you've created.

 

[Strenuus]

Lots of good information guys. thanks.

 

[Denny Crane]

Yes, I understand that minimum contracts exist. Also, I realized that Spotrac didn't include Napier on the 2017-18 roster, so that's another guaranteed spot that I missed.

But, for the sake of argument, let's pretend that Olshey deals Davis/Leonard for nothing, cuts the NGC's, trades/stashes all 3 first round picks, and fills a spot with a player on a rookie minimum deal. How much space is left under the luxury tax line at that point for the 12th roster spot (the minimum required)? $4.27M. And there's no way any free agents of any quality come to Portland for that.

View attachment 14282

But sure, if we can find a taker for some of our dreck, cut another 20% of the roster, and don't use any picks--Neil has $4M under the tax line to deal with. But when was the last time a team went through an entire season with only 12 players on the roster--especially considering rosters are actually being expanded to 17 this season? It's a completely unrealistic scenario you've created.

You can have 11 on the roster and sign 10-day contracts to fill the 12th.

The Bulls did it for the whole season a few years ago.

If I were NO, I'd be looking to add a backup C who can start in a pinch. Like I posted earlier, he's done an amazing job of filling the C position for us at really low salaries.

All this doesn't preclude even bigger kinds of deals. Like we trade 2 guys for 3 with much less incoming salary, or the two going out make plenty of room under the LT.

NO isn't stupid or blind and neither is PA.

I also don't think that Crabbe is untradeable. Chandler Parsons scored a MAX/$22M contract in spite of missing 20-25 games in each of the previous two seasons, unable to play in all but 1 playoff game, and after having microfracture surgery and then surgery for a torn meniscus.

 

[Denny Crane]

Aminu's contract could easily be moved for cap space, too.

I was suggesting the least that NO might have to do to get us under the LT. Losing Aminu's contract would be a way to free up even more room to deal.

 

[ripcityboy]

Those teams were contenders with just their core players and only needed to replace their cheap players, when they got expensive and left, with new cheap players. The Blazers aren't contenders with their existing core players and they massively overpaid for production they should be getting from cheap players putting them in a cap and tax vice that makes roster adjustment extremely hard.

To put it another way, if Lillard/McCollum/Nurkic alone made the team a title contender and then the rest of their players were cheap, but they were prepared to let those currently cheap players go when they got expensive to get "new, cheap Crabbe," "new, cheap Turner," etc, I could see the comparison. Instead, they're paying Crabbe and Turner like core pieces (and Leonard like a really good reserve) and that kills their ability to retool like those teams you mentioned. And even if they did manage to retool, they're retooling a team that isn't all that close to championship-caliber.

Bingo. Great post. I often time the Blazers are playing chess with checkers pieces. The other teams are moving to check mate in the time we are just looking straight ahead. You point this out to other Blazer fans and they are like, "How dare you! How dare you! Winning a championship is entirely possible here." And other teams fans say, "You guys are so stupid. How could you give so much money to that guy. You screwed yourselves." All you can do is enjoy the pleasant things that happen like Nurkic from time to time. Draft day is always fun too. But you have to pick your battles as a Blazer fan during the off-season.

 

[Shaboid]

The Blazers have announced that the surgery was successful at least. So there's that.

 

[Boob-No-More]

You can have 11 on the roster and sign 10-day contracts to fill the 12th.

The Bulls did it for the whole season a few years ago.

If I were NO, I'd be looking to add a backup C who can start in a pinch. Like I posted earlier, he's done an amazing job of filling the C position for us at really low salaries.

All this doesn't preclude even bigger kinds of deals. Like we trade 2 guys for 3 with much less incoming salary, or the two going out make plenty of room under the LT.

NO isn't stupid or blind and neither is PA.

I also don't think that Crabbe is untradeable. Chandler Parsons scored a MAX/$22M contract in spite of missing 20-25 games in each of the previous two seasons, unable to play in all but 1 playoff game, and after having microfracture surgery and then surgery for a torn meniscus.

I'm not sure if relying on other GMs being stupid is a solid strategy. You're entire scenario relies on other GMs taking our bad contracts and not forcing us to take on any of their bad contracts in return.

Even in the Parsons case, prior to injury, he was much better than Crabbe. In his two years in DAL, he averaged 17 ppg and had a PER > 16. Crabbe has not come close to either of those numbers. Obviously, MEM was counting on Parsons to return to his pre-injury form, or at least play as well as he did the previous season in DAL. It was a risk that certainly didn't pay off in year one of his contract. His production fell off a cliff.

With Crabbe, any GM that takes on that contract has to hope that Crabbe suddenly becomes a MUCH better player. He didn't improve on any of his weaknesses last summer and after foot surgery, probably won't make in progress in those areas this summer either. So, do you take on the $19 million a year salary of a PER = 11 one-dimensional specialist and hope he magically becomes something significantly better? If we can find a GM that dumb, we should offer them a package that also includes Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner, and do it quick before they get fired.

Man, if only David Kahn was still the GM in MIN. He used to love collecting our cast offs.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

The Blazers have announced that the surgery was successful at least. So there's that.

So relived they didn't have to amputate.

When was the last time a team announced that a player's surgery was unsuccessful?

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm not sure if relying on other GMs being stupid is a solid strategy. You're entire scenario relies on other GMs taking our bad contracts and not forcing us to take on any of their bad contracts in return.

Even in the Parsons case, prior to injury, he was much better than Crabbe. In his two years in DAL, he averaged 17 ppg and had a PER > 16. Crabbe has not come close to either of those numbers. Obviously, MEM was counting on Parsons to return to his pre-injury form, or at least play as well as he did the previous season in DAL. It was a risk that certainly didn't pay off in year one of his contract. His production fell off a cliff.

With Crabbe, any GM that takes on that contract has to hope that Crabbe suddenly becomes a MUCH better player. He didn't improve on any of his weaknesses last summer and after foot surgery, probably won't make in progress in those areas this summer either. So, do you take on the $19 million a year salary of a PER = 11 one-dimensional specialist and hope he magically becomes something significantly better? If we can find a GM that dumb, we should offer them a package that also includes Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner, and do it quick before they get fired.

Man, if only David Kahn was still the GM in MIN. He used to love collecting our cast offs.

BNM

"Prior to injury." So ignore the injuries?

Doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The guy misses good parts of two seasons, the most recent playoffs, and has had serious red flag injury/surgery issues, yet multiple GMs went after him.

Past performance isn't a predictor of future performance, especially if Crabbe were to become a starter elsewhere. Elsewhere without two uber high usage players on the team.

Neither of us has a crystal ball, but I do read a lot of GMs' quotes and sports articles about teams saying the big need is shooting. Shooting is something Crabbe is one of the elite at, and Meyers, for a 7'er is also.

 

[Denny Crane]

Cuban gave Harrison Barnes a MAX contract. Barnes had a 12.3 PER, and 11.7 PPG, missed 16 games, and had a 107 DRtg (111 with the Mavs as full time starter). Crabbe's career DRtg is 111.

Barnes was 23, Crabbe is 24, but was 23 when he was offered a MAX contract by a GM other than NO.