An early look at the offseason

[Further]

Just figured we could talk about our future team.

Players (years left include now and options either way)
Aldridge - signed long term
Batum - signed 2 years
Bayless - signed 2 years
Cunningham - signed 2 years
Fernandez - signed 2 years (rumblings of forcing a trade or Europe)
Miller - 3 years
Oden - 2 years and may or may not want a contract extension but not leaving either way
Pendergraph - 3 years
Przybilla - 2 years
Roy - long term
Webster - long term

Mills - expiring
Howard - expiring w/o bird but cheap enough to keep if both sides agree
Diener - expiring w/o bird rights
Camby - expiring with bird rights

Blazers have several Euro players but only Koponen and Freeland stand any chance of coming over this offseason.

Blazers have MLE

Blazers have the 19th and 42nd pick in the draft



First off, my assumptions going forward. I assume that Greg will return @ 90-100%, however I don't expect him to ever play 82 games. I still have hopes that he can be a 70 game player and for my own sanity, that will be my assumption for the time being. Joel, I don't know if he will ever come back at close to full speed. Unfortunately, even though he is a very solid player when healthy, he drops off very quick when injured. I expect nothing from him ever again, and hope I am wrong. All other injuries I assume will be totally corrected by next season.

If I were GM
Bring back Camby. Overpay or give an extra year if that's what it takes, he will be desperately needed next season.
Forget about Deiner
Mills and Howard only get contracts after all other trades/draftpicks/summer camps are complete. They are not needed and most likely will not be kept. If Howard want to retire, hire him as an assistant.

The players that I expect to be off the table unless true star is returning
Roy
Aldridge
Oden
Batum
possibly Miller

That means that any trades that go down will made using picks, money, Rudy, webster, Bayless, Cunningham, Perndergraph or Przybilla.



What I think we need for next year
1) A back up PG with a deadly long ball. Sometimes teams are just able to collapse on the Blazers giving LMA and Roy no area to work. only having shooting from the SF position is not enough. This does not mean that Bayless is out in my mind, just that he is not the answer at this moment. Koponen might be someone to look at.

2) A gritty BU PF. This might be pendergraph or even Cunningham. I am just not sure.

3) A revamp or audit of our medical / conditioning staff. I am not saying they are to blame, but I really think enough bad things have happened that Paul Allen should hire a consultant just to analyze the situation and see if things should be done differently.



What are your thoughts?

 

[hasoos]

Don't forget the free agents that are below the"elite" level guys that will get the most attention. I think most folks recognize the value that some veteran guys brought in this year. There will be more of those looking for homes next year. This year I was lobbying for keeping a roster spot open to sign a vet. Milwaukee brought in Stackhouse as a backup SF and he played awesome for them. Next year Ray Allen will be looking for someplace to finish out his career too. What would it be like to go from Rudy shooting 37% to having one of the best 3 point shooters of all time as a 3rd guard?

 

[MIXUM]

bayless needs t be traded and a backup pg will be needed who can shoot the 3. blake imo

cunningham and pendergraph are not the answers

trade rudy

get a new gm

resign camby

wait to resign gimp known as greg... greg the gimp g-n-g

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

we need a veteran shooter/scorer off the bench. someone like what Jamaal Crawford is doing in Atlanta.

 

[RR7]

I agree with your keepers. Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Batum and Miller(Barring a big upgrade at PG, which is unlikely). I think this offseason could be when we scrap alot of the youth, and go with the realization that you win with your core, and by keeping your core together. And that core is Roy, Oden, Aldridge and Batum. Other guys are fringe pieces, but people need to realize it is unlikely we keep 10 guys all around 26 on the team, which seems like what many have wanted for the past two years. Oh, no, he's 28, too old for our core.

I think re-signing Camby is a definite. If that happens, I'd explore trading Joel, with a combo of Jerry, Rudy, Webster our pick and our Euros. I love Rudy, adn want him to stick around. I want him to retire a Blazer. I'm just unsure if it'd happen.

I think Ray Allen would be a very interesting choice. Especially in a reduced role, off of his 35 minutes a game he is being asked to play currently. Would he come here? Maybe with other moves, if he saw/thought we had a legit chance of winning. I think, if we keep those 4 core guys and Miller, and are able to re-sign Joel, you look at filling a 1-2, a 2-3, and possibly a 3-4 and 4-5. Cunningham fits in that 3-4 slot, and Pendergraph in the 4-5 slot. Ray Allen fits in that 2-3 slot. So would someone like Mike Miller. I'd look to trade Joel in a S&T for a MLE type of player(Ray Allen, Mike Miller), and then use the MLE as well, to bring someone over. Also utilize the Bi-Annual Exception and the vet minimum.

 

[Draco]

I expect Camby to resign. I'd rather see a 2 year deal even if we have to overpay a couple million per year.

I would throw around max MLE money at the best player available, and just work our way down the list until we find one that sticks. If we can't get a max MLE free agent then even taking a look at a player like Blake would be fine. He does have a good three ball, is familiar with setting up the offense, familar with the team. He is fine as a backup just not a 30mpg starter.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Just to address one point. While I want to see Camby return, I think it probably won't happen. Vulcan is running the team now and Allen isn't making decisions. I'd like to see us pick up the best defenseive center possible with our first round pick and let him play behind Oden & Godzilla.

 

[hasoos]

Just to address one point. While I want to see Camby return, I think it probably won't happen. Vulcan is running the team now and Allen isn't making decisions. I'd like to see us pick up the best defenseive center possible with our first round pick and let him play behind Oden & Godzilla.

I see this opinion a lot. It seems that nobody looks at the fact that Paul Allen is sick and might want to win now, and that, might over ride all decisions. Why do folks overlooks this? Beats me. But I know if I was Paul, and sick like he is, I would probably be dumping more money into the team, not less.

 

[MIXUM]

off season begins the 24th or 26th

 

[mgb]

I agree bring Camby back, but this is a contract year so I would be a little bit worried that he might not play with such intensity once he gets his contract. Not saying he won't, but I don't know him well enough.

We need another backup pg, but I don't think he has to be a 3 point threat, just be able to consistently hit a mid range jumper. That's really what Miller is good at and is all we need to keep defenses honest. Being able to hit a 3 pointer is nice, but I'd rather have a real consistent mid range jumper as I said.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think I'm fine with Pendergraph and Dante as the backup or third string 3/4 and 4/5 respectively. I do think Camby is priority number 1, and getting an heir apparent to Miller is 1a and to that end I think they need to combine, Joel, Jerryd, Rudy and/or Martell any way they can to get a decent to good long term answer at the point; I don't think any stars are going to be available, but maybe Ramon Sessions, Kyle Lowry, Mario Chalmers or somebody like that could be had if the price is right.

 

[RR7]

I don't think any stars are going to be available, but maybe Ramon Sessions, Kyle Lowry, Mario Chalmers or somebody like that could be had if the price is right.

I've never been a big fan of the idea, but I think someone like Felton could be a possibility in that position. For the MLE or some of it.

 

[BrianFromWA]

off season begins the 24th or 26th

Of June, when KP's about to make his draft picks after a couple of weeks of championship parades and cleaning confetti out of his hair.

 

[Further]

there are a lot of teams with big cap space and some of the big names will not be leaving. This means that teams will be overpaying more than usual this off season for talent. too much money burning holes in the pockets of GM's.

 

[BrianFromWA]

though some of the smart ones are talking about not blowing their entire wad until 2011, when a) the cap will probably be a bunch higher and b) you'll have a few more "names" to look at.

For instance, NYK could sign someone like Joe Johnson, re-sign Lee to a 1-yr 13M contract or so, and then next year poach Carmelo with the Max.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I've never been a big fan of the idea, but I think someone like Felton could be a possibility in that position. For the MLE or some of it.

I actually think he might be good. I haven't seen him play much but somehow have the impression that he's a good defender. And if Larry Brown came around on him, that's a good sign. (I think Charlotte will let him go, though, particularly if Brown leaves, because they'll want to give DJ Augustin a chance.)

Of course the IDEAL thing is for Koponen to come over...

 

[RR7]

I also want Koppo to come over, I just want him to learn the NBA game for a year or two. I hate the dropoff we experience from vet starter(even when it was Blake) to inexperienced backup. I think it was mentioned in a TrueHoop article about Miller imposing his will, directing and molding the game the way he wanted it, Bayless coming in and screwing that up,a nd Miller fixing it. I have hopes for Koppo, but worry we'd experience that same thing next season with him as our backup to Miller. If we got Felton for the MLE, I think you start Miller, bring Felton in as #2, and have Koppo get spot minutes here and there. Miller's gone in a year or two. Then, either Felton takes over the starting spot or, hopefully, Koppo does, and at or near the MLE, Felton isn't all that expensive of a backup.

 

[hasoos]

I also want Koppo to come over, I just want him to learn the NBA game for a year or two. I hate the dropoff we experience from vet starter(even when it was Blake) to inexperienced backup. I think it was mentioned in a TrueHoop article about Miller imposing his will, directing and molding the game the way he wanted it, Bayless coming in and screwing that up,a nd Miller fixing it. I have hopes for Koppo, but worry we'd experience that same thing next season with him as our backup to Miller. If we got Felton for the MLE, I think you start Miller, bring Felton in as #2, and have Koppo get spot minutes here and there. Miller's gone in a year or two. Then, either Felton takes over the starting spot or, hopefully, Koppo does, and at or near the MLE, Felton isn't all that expensive of a backup.

You know I thought for quite a while I wouldn't want Koponen over here yet. But then a member of the Phoenix Suns of all teams changed my mind. Goran Dragic. He looked as bad as Koponen did when he first came into the league. Now he is playing pretty damn good in the scheme of things. So what the hell. Bring him over.

 

[Further]

the problem is that Kop is not super athletic, and it's hard for a PG to be 6'5" and keep up with the other PG's unless he is super athletic. Batum for example at 6'9" can guard most PG's, but that shows his freak of nature athleticism.

 

[RR7]

the problem is that Kop is not super athletic, and it's hard for a PG to be 6'5" and keep up with the other PG's unless he is super athletic. Batum for example at 6'9" can guard most PG's, but that shows his freak of nature athleticism.

Dragic's 6'4". He'll have the same difficulties. But that's when ideally you're putting Batum on the elite PGs, and also relying on team defense.

 

[BrianFromWA]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5099980

Salary cap set at 56.1M. Well done, league prognosticators (50.7 to 53.3).

NYK now has room for 2 maxes (~16.9M starting salary) and no one else. MIA's looking pretty if they keep Wade, sign a max (Bosh?) and still have around 12M left. If they send Beasley off in a S&T, they can have 3 maxes and a bunch of minimum contracts.

 

[hasoos]

Dragic's 6'4". He'll have the same difficulties. But that's when ideally you're putting Batum on the elite PGs, and also relying on team defense.

Yea you know what is the interesting wrinkle I want to throw out there, is the fact Batum replaced Parker on the French team when Tony was hurt, and they played pretty damn well. It raises the question. Do we possibly have a freak on our hands? A freak that it is worth going and getting another SF type so he can spend some minutes at PG? I am unsure. But I think it is worth investigating, because those types of freaks are rare.

 

[BrianFromWA]

In the draft thread I postulated that I could see us looking at Singler or Hayward or Pondexter for just that reason. Playing Nic more at the one allows us to get another defensive player (Webster, Pondexter) or ball-handler (Singler, Rudy) in the game. Batum/Roy/Player X is a pretty versatile way to go.
Edit: Much easier than finding a PG that can start with X/Roy/Batum

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Our biggest need is a backup PG. Bayless is most certainly a SG.

Johnny Flynn The triangle offense totally killed his game. The guy is a stud and a very nice PG prospect. They have Ricky Rubio waiting in the wings with Ramon Sessions on the roster. Flynn probably could be had.

Darren Collison He's like a better passing Aaron Brooks. With Paul 100% they could probably look to deal Collison with a bad contract.

Petteri Koponen In Vegas he showed a very nice first-step, passing ability, and shooting range. At 6'5" he's an intriguing prospect.

My favorite under the radar prospect is Jrue Holiday.

 

[RR7]

I think as far as finding a point to play with them, you go the Ron Harper mold, as long as they can play defense. I know Roy and Batum are a ways away from Jordan and Pippen, to say the least, but we don't need an incredible playmaking "true" PG, aren't going to find anyone that can shut down the smaller quicker guards, so find someone that'll play well off of them two, Oden and Aldridge. Decent shooter, decent playmaker, good defender. SMART. Basically, the assumption I am seeing and making is our PG is going to arguably be our worst starter. And I'm ok with that. And if we realize that, we can start to eliminate some of the expectations. I don't see Batum being a full time point for us. Same with Roy. But Someone like Kopo can. Or, even, Rudy. Yeah, yeah, he's not keeping up witht he quicker guards. Shit, Westbrook, one of the better guard defenders, just got his ass smoked the last two games by 30 something Andre Miller. Man to man PG defense is pretty over rated. The best of the best are going to get around defenders, regardless of how good the defender is. Is the player smart? Can he direct hi man to places he wants him to go? Understand team defense? I'd actually really like Rudy in that PG role for us, now that I think of it.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I really like Holiday, but I don't think he's anywhere close to "under the radar" among NBA people. I'd swap him straight-up for Bayless (or maybe Rudy) right now, but I don't think PHI would.

If we're looking at keeping Batum at the 3, figure out what GSW wants for Curry. Though imo it'd be easier getting CP3 from NOH than Curry from GSW.

 

[Further]

I have not been a Nate basher, but one thing I think is true, Nate is risk adverse. This leads to a drop in creativity. For this reason, I don't see Batum or Rudy getting enough of a leash at the PG spot to ever grow into that position. That may be the right answer, but it would take a couple months (at minimum) of giving them 20mpg unfettered at PG to see if it would work.

I am not even saying Nate is wrong to go with a short term answer instead of exploring other options that will likely result in more immediate losses, even if it could result in a more positive future. Basically, I just realize it ain't gonna happen regardless of the merit of the idea. Baring Miller going down, it's not in the cards.

 

[ehizzy3]

if ed davis somehow fell to us, id be so happy...id even think about moving up a few spots for him

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Well, we're now sitting at #22 after losing the coin toss between OKC and San Antonio.