Exclusive Are the Blazers good at drafting? A historical look -

[42N8Bounce]

Although it's fun to watch multiple players develop this season, as the losses pile up my attention drifts to the draft...

Back in 2020, I downloaded the NBA draft history to see how the Blazers stacked up against the other teams.

Exclusive Thread 'Blazers Draft History Data'

Aug 31, 2020

Since the Blazers season is over, I thought I'd have a little fun with some Blazers draft history data. I downloaded all of the draft data back to 1970 (For those who don't know, that the starting year for the Blazers.).

Some questions I wanted to answer:
- How do the Blazers' draft selections stack up against other teams'?
- Who was the Blazers best value draft pick?
- Who was the Blazers worst value draft pick?
- Who was the best Blazers GM?

Keep in mind, drafting is different than putting a good team together. Often a very good player is drafted by the Blazers, only to be quickly...

• 42N8Bounce
• Replies: 23
• Forum: Portland Trail Blazers

• 

I've refreshed the data for years 2006 thru 2020. In summary, I calculated the average Win-Share for each pick in the draft, then compared that to the value each team got from that pick. For example, the average Win-Share for a player picked #10 is 27.1. The Blazers drafted Zach Collins at #10 in 2017. So far in his career, he has a 11.9 Win-Share. The Blazers only got 11.9 / 27.1 = 43.9% value from that pick.

Totaling up all of the picks, here's how the Blazers stack up -

Between 2006 and 2020, the Blazers are the 10th best NBA team at getting value out of their draft picks.

Here's a look at some of the picks during that time -


The Blazers knocked it out of the park with Lillard and Aldridge. Not so much with Oden and Collins.

Here's where some of the Blazer young guns sit in comparison to their 'expectations':

They're all young. They've got plenty of time to live up to expectations. Just stay healthy!

I hope you enjoyed the analysis!

 

[wizenheimer]

what happens to the Blazer score if you take out Dame's 104.1 winshares

 

[42N8Bounce]

what happens to the Blazer score if you take out Dame's 104.1 winshares

If we remove Dame, they fall down to 100.2%

On the flip side, if we remove Oden, they rise to 118.9%

 

[andalusian]

The blazers seem to do well when they draft proven college players (oden is the exception because of health) and pretty shite when drafting for upside (batum being the exception).

Seems to track with the current young guys, with DC being the only sure thing on the roster so far

 

[blazerfan11]

The blazers seem to do well when they draft proven college players (oden is the exception because of health) and pretty shite when drafting for upside (batum being the exception).

Seems to track with the current young guys, with DC being the only sure thing on the roster so far

Murray played 3 years at Iowa and hasn't done that much in the NBA. He has nice games here and there, solid inside, but his 25.5% 3-point shooting with the Blazers falls way short of his 34.8% at Iowa.

 

[andalusian]

Murray played 3 years at Iowa and hasn't done that much in the NBA. He has nice games here and there, solid inside, but his 25.5% 3-point shooting with the Blazers falls way short of his 34.8% at Iowa.

Yet, he feels like the kind of guy that would be in the league for many years

 

[kjironman1]

It's these kinds of things that has me wondering if they are going to tank again this year eventually?

 

[Everything Beagle]

It's these kinds of things that has me wondering if they are going to tank again this year eventually?

We’re going to draft Old Man Dame this summer

 

[Everything Beagle]

Yet, he feels like the kind of guy that would be in the league for many years

He can’t produce without a good point guard in with him, which limits when he can produce in a game. If he’s a bench guy who needs to be in with a starter level PG, that’s middle of the second, middle of the fourth production… it’s not glamourous but you only need to hit a couple shots and make a couple stops to earn your keep. It’s where you can make hay as a cheap guy with some skills. This is the Mark Bryant niche. Didn’t he play for like 20 years?

 

[GoZers]

WIthout going into metrics or analysis, my eyeballs tell me that the team isnt good at drafting. Each year we have guys who are expected to take 'the leap', and it just doesnt seem to happen. Roy, Lillard, LMA were outstanding picks. Ages ago. Since then, some Olshey 2nd round picks were good I guess.

 

[42N8Bounce]

WIthout going into metrics or analysis, my eyeballs tell me that the team isnt good at drafting. Each year we have guys who are expected to take 'the leap', and it just doesnt seem to happen. Roy, Lillard, LMA were outstanding picks. Ages ago. Since then, some Olshey 2nd round picks were good I guess.

Good point. The 15 year window of data that I used for the analysis starts at 2020 and goes back. I wanted to have at least a 5 year window before really laying judgement on the player.

Out of the guys drafted in the last 5 years, who do you think will live up to expectations? (Average WS)

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

The bigger question might be are they actually developing their talent?

Clingan’s offense is dangerously close to the Myers Leonard system: park your ass behind the 3pt line and stay there until further notice.

Sharpe is teetering between being a 20ppg scorer with passable defense or a clone of Zach LaVine.

I will say though that they were finally starting to develop an actual identity under Billups.

 

[GoZers]

Good point. The 15 year window of data that I used for the analysis starts at 2020 and goes back. I wanted to have at least a 5 year window before really laying judgement on the player.

Out of the guys drafted in the last 5 years, who do you think will live up to expectations? (Average WS)
View attachment 77905

Sharpe and Scoot will have some great games. Maybe some great weeks. The rest of that list is bad. Clingan is fine as a big defensive stiff to man the rim. If he was on a great team of offensive players, he'd be somewhat valuable. Maybe. But that aint here. Sharpe is looking more and more like an exciting, occasionally awesome, but usually not, athlete who is always in the low efficiency range. Like someone else just mentioned - Zach Lavine. I hope I am wrong. Scoot, who knows. But kinda the same prognosis is my opinion. Rupert Murray and Yang are irrelevant. We need to un-earth the Yang thread during the draft.

 

[Everything Beagle]

WIthout going into metrics or analysis, my eyeballs tell me that the team isnt good at drafting. Each year we have guys who are expected to take 'the leap', and it just doesnt seem to happen. Roy, Lillard, LMA were outstanding picks. Ages ago. Since then, some Olshey 2nd round picks were good I guess.

What we’re not good with is expectation management. The numbers say our drafting is above average.

 

[Everything Beagle]

Although it's fun to watch multiple players develop this season, as the losses pile up my attention drifts to the draft...

Back in 2020, I downloaded the NBA draft history to see how the Blazers stacked up against the other teams.

Exclusive Thread 'Blazers Draft History Data'

Aug 31, 2020

Since the Blazers season is over, I thought I'd have a little fun with some Blazers draft history data. I downloaded all of the draft data back to 1970 (For those who don't know, that the starting year for the Blazers.).

Some questions I wanted to answer:
- How do the Blazers' draft selections stack up against other teams'?
- Who was the Blazers best value draft pick?
- Who was the Blazers worst value draft pick?
- Who was the best Blazers GM?

Keep in mind, drafting is different than putting a good team together. Often a very good player is drafted by the Blazers, only to be quickly...

• 42N8Bounce
• Replies: 23
• Forum: Portland Trail Blazers

• 

I've refreshed the data for years 2006 thru 2020. In summary, I calculated the average Win-Share for each pick in the draft, then compared that to the value each team got from that pick. For example, the average Win-Share for a player picked #10 is 27.1. The Blazers drafted Zach Collins at #10 in 2017. So far in his career, he has a 11.9 Win-Share. The Blazers only got 11.9 / 27.1 = 43.9% value from that pick.

Totaling up all of the picks, here's how the Blazers stack up -
View attachment 77897
Between 2006 and 2020, the Blazers are the 10th best NBA team at getting value out of their draft picks.

Here's a look at some of the picks during that time -
View attachment 77900

The Blazers knocked it out of the park with Lillard and Aldridge. Not so much with Oden and Collins.

Here's where some of the Blazer young guns sit in comparison to their 'expectations':
View attachment 77899
They're all young. They've got plenty of time to live up to expectations. Just stay healthy!

I hope you enjoyed the analysis!

It’s not really fair to compare Win Shares since we spent that entire time trying to lose on purpose so our coach could impress the mafia.