Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?

[Nikolokolus]

I've been thinking a bit lately about all of the rampant good vibes that seem to be flooding the team and the fan base, and I've begun to wonder are we getting way ahead of ourselves? Greg is pretty rusty and is coming off a huge surgery and long rehab, our starting point guard is already down with a pulled hammy, and we get to start the season entering a buzzsaw of playoff caliber teams and tough road games all of which could spell a very slow start and a big hole to try and climb out of.

So that's my question to you guys: are we expecting too much success with the, still, youngest team in the NBA? And if so, how would you react to this team missing the playoffs?

(personally I'm still standing by my prediction of 47 wins and a seventh seed)

 

[maxiep]

Absolutely not. We've been so used to losing and disappointment we're afraid to be optimistic. I have very high hopes for this team and nothing I've seen or heard since the beginning of training camp has dissuaded me.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I think so.

Most posters on these boards see the team thru Rose Garden colored glasses. If I had never been to a Blazer board before and came here I'd think we had 10 all-stars and several more in waiting. There's not a whole lot of objectivity.

However, that said, we do have the makings of a very good team that has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs this year as many teams in the west are weaker than last year. Also, in 2 or 3 years we should easily be a playoff team.

 

[Reep]

I'm actually with St. Nik on this one a bit. I don't think Oden will be the factor that people think--at least not right away. Even in college every other game or so Oden would come up with a 12 pt, 5-6 reb game. Out of 32 games in college, he had 9 games of 6 boards or less. He is bigger, but I don't seem him coming out of the gate quickly. He'll have a few ESPN dunks and blocks, but his overall stat line will likely be less than filling. The most interesting measure for G.O. early on will be how he plays the second half of the first game against Bynum. Will it flip the switch for him or will he get frustrated?

I also think if Blake is injured the team could be in a world of hurt early on, because nobody else (with the exception of Roy and Rudy) is ready to be a starting PG.

However, having said that, I think at least one person will step up and do better than we expect. I think Rudy will be very solid and may even join Roy in the back court if Blake is injured. I also think Bayless will make himself be ready for minutes and will be a factor after the first month or so. He has shown the ability to learn quickly in the past.

 

[Moo2K4]

I don't know if you guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment. I think most of you guys have realistic expectations based on the talent of your team. There's no denying you guys are stockpiled on talent, it's just a matter of putting it all together and keeping everyone healthy.

 

[Cake]

I've been thinking a bit lately about all of the rampant good vibes that seem to be flooding the team and the fan base, and I've begun to wonder are we getting way ahead of ourselves? Greg is pretty rusty and is coming off a huge surgery and long rehab, our starting point guard is already down with a pulled hammy, and we get to start the season entering a buzzsaw of playoff caliber teams and tough road games all of which could spell a very slow start and a big hole to try and climb out of.

So that's my question to you guys: are we expecting too much success with the, still, youngest team in the NBA? And if so, how would you react to this team missing the playoffs?

(personally I'm still standing by my prediction of 47 wins and a seventh seed)

I have two immediate reactions.

1- Who cares? If people have high expectations, that's great. If we don't live up to the expectations, then so be it.

2- People underestimate how much talent we have added. Fernandez is a stud and he's ready to step in and immediately contribute at a high level. Oden's defense will change games, and he's an excellent rebounder. He'll get enough easy points down low just by being bigger and stronger than any other option we had last season. Add in another year of seasoning for Aldridge and Roy...we're stacked already and 48 wins should be the basement of expectations for us.

I'd be a bit disappointed in missing the playoffs...just like I have been the last few years. But it's not going to affect whether or not I have high expectations. If we do make the playoffs, watch out...because I bet we're playing a better quality of basketball in April/May than we are in November/December.

 

[Ed O]

I am rooting for 45+ wins and/or a playoff spot. If we get either these, I will be happy. If we get both then it's a bonus. If we get neither then it's a disappointment.

That's a reasonable goal for me.

Maybe BP wasn't talking about me, though, because I rarely am thought to be wearing Rose Garden-colered glasses.

Ed O.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

As soon as the "Imagine Oden Next Year" billboard went up, we were setting ourselves up for disappointment.

 

[gatorpops]

I don't know if you guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment. I think most of you guys have realistic expectations based on the talent of your team. There's no denying you guys are stockpiled on talent, it's just a matter of putting it all together and keeping everyone healthy.

I see so many pluses for this team that I do not think my 50 win prediction is unrealistic.

1. Stockpiled talent. (negates injury)

2. An extra BIG in the middle over last year. (adds defense, rebounds, and at least 10 more pts per game)

3. Addition of Rudy and Bayless over Jack. (adds much better passing and movement and penetration)

4. Every young player on this team has another off season of skill improvement so age is not as much of a factor.

5. Last year they came together very well and won an extra amount of games because of it. They will again.

6. Last years record was against a stacked Western Conference.

7. Some of the teams like Spurs and Dallas and Phoenix will suffer because of Huston and Portland's improvement.

8. The Rose Garden is our house and will become nearly impossible for other teams to win here.

9. I do not believe that the East has improved as much as most think. A couple of teams have though.

10. And last but not least, we will have "some" fastbreaks this year where we had nearly none. I expect at least to average at least 5 or 6 per game for at least 10 more points per game.


g Blazer

 

[Drttimmy]

I don't think we are. The schedule is tough early on, but, historically, it seems previous year playoff teams take a few months to get into full gear. Whereas, the team came in early again this year, and from what we saw at the scrimmage, a lot of the players already seem in mid-season form. So, it may be a good thing the early season schedule is loaded. Jump on the good teams while they're ironing out the kinks, then clean up on the easier back end.

If you're talking about individual players--Oden and Bayless in particular-- then, yeah, I think we are. I don't think we're going to see the Oden we saw at OSU until late in the year, if at all this year. That's the player we remember and set the expectations at, so I think we're bound to be disappointed to start.

Bayless seems to still be figuring out team basketball, which should be an issue with him at his age. I think Nate will wisely pick his spots playing him, so his stats won't be eye-popping and this will probably disappoint some fans.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I am rooting for 45+ wins and/or a playoff spot. If we get either these, I will be happy. If we get both then it's a bonus. If we get neither then it's a disappointment.

That's a reasonable goal for me.

Maybe BP wasn't talking about me, though, because I rarely am thought to be wearing Rose Garden-colered glasses.

Ed O.

That sounds about right.

Very young team + tough early schedule = ugly. It is quite possible that the team will spend the 2nd half of the season just digging themselves out of the hole they dug in the 1st half.

 

[BlazerFanForLife]

It's very well possible that we might be expecting way too much from this team, it is also possible that this team could build upon its success from last year and make a run at the Western Conference Finals or even the 'Ship. That said this is the time of year when all we can do is rampantly guess and dream up scenarios of what will happen without even seeing our starting five play together. I think its more likely that we get far in the playoffs than that we miss them completely, but I've always been an optimist, heck even the Knicks think they can make the playoffs this year. Hah

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

Part of being a fan is expecting/hoping for great things from your team, especially when things are looking good like they are for our Trail Blazers.

 

[Tortimer]

I glad more of our fans are being optimist then the other way around. It could come back to bite us and have us being more upset then we should be if we don't do good. I'm still thinking we will be a 6th-8th seed this year. I think a lot of people are sort disappointed with Oden already but they shouldn't be. Oden hasn't play a single NBA game and hasn't played even a scrimmage until recently for over a year. He has gain muscle but still isn't in shape and hasn't got his explosive skills back or his basketball skills yet. I think he will improve as the year goes on and will be playing really well after the all star game or at least by the end of the year. I'm sure the Blazers will do ok even with the really tough first 24 games. I'm hoping they go .500 but even if they are only a little below .500 we will still be good with the tough schedule. For me it will be fun just watching them improve even if their record isn't that good at first. I predict we will have a few real good wins in the first 5 games which IMO will be a good sign for later in the year.

 

[The Professional Fan]

I absolutely do not think that the 8th seed is overly optimistic. Anything beyond that is gravy. Even though I expect some gravy.

 

[gatorpops]

That sounds about right.

Very young team + tough early schedule = ugly. It is quite possible that the team will spend the 2nd half of the season just digging themselves out of the hole they dug in the 1st half.

And it's just as possible that the team will not be in the deep hole many seem to think.

g: Blazer pimp:

 

[mook]

The 27 mpg Jarret Jack wasted last year will be sopped up by Rudy Fernandez.
Frye and Aldridge should no longer have to play any minutes out of position at center.
Aldridge and Roy are a year more experienced.

Those three facts alone should be worth 7-10 more wins this year.

 

[tlongII]

We won't miss the playoffs. We might start slowly, but we'll get it going later in the season.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The 27 mpg Jarret Jack wasted last year will be sopped up by Rudy Fernandez.
Frye and Aldridge should no longer have to play any minutes out of position at center.
Aldridge and Roy are a year more experienced.

Those three facts alone should be worth 7-10 more wins this year.

Point 3 I agree with.

Point 2 is a mixed blessing. Not to sound like a broken record, but after a year of inactivity, Oden needs and deserves time to get back in the groove. You can argue that having Frye and LMA play center is a liability on defense, but it certainly wasn't on offense.

Point 1 is certainly true in the long term - but the short term is an entirely different matter. Not only are we without Jack (a flawed but under-rated player), we are also facing uncertainty over Blake's health. If Blake misses (or is physically limited) for any appreciable ammount of time, our back-court could be a mess. Not to mention the added workload it dumps on Roy.

One final note - and I know this will piss people off - but for the (roughly) half a season he was healthy, Jones was better than Webster. Not having that safety net at SF could cost a couple of games right there.

 

[KingSpeed]

I wonder how much we'll miss Jack and Jones. I know lots of people despise Jack on this board, but he was a tough player and showed some leadership on the floor. Jones also showed leadership and played some solid defense and hit that three point shot for us. We were absolutely HORRIBLE when he didn't play. Look at the record. It's not good. Yes, we're adding Rudy, but will he make the same impact that Jones made? Only time will tell.

Go Blazers

 

[STOMP]

I think so.

Most posters on these boards see the team thru Rose Garden colored glasses. If I had never been to a Blazer board before and came here I'd think we had 10 all-stars and several more in waiting. There's not a whole lot of objectivity.

However, that said, we do have the makings of a very good team that has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs this year as many teams in the west are weaker than last year. Also, in 2 or 3 years we should easily be a playoff team.

I haven't predicted playoffs in some time. In fact, I started predicting the lotto the day they traded out Sheed for spare parts that most everyone in this community was doing over attaining.

I rated Roy and Aldridge as the top 2 prospects in their draft and of course like most everyone salivated over the prospect of adding Greg. Prior to Oden going down last year I was predicting 50 wins and took heat for it. They lost him yet still went 500 as the 3rd youngest team in league history... I viewed that as confirmation that along with a select few others (Hi mook and TH), I was right. We shall see, but I think there is a new sheriff in town with a message to send... I'm thinking homecourt in round 1 is within the realm of realistic.

STOMP

 

[Minstrel]

I've been pretty pessimistic about Portland's chances ever since Bonzi and Sheed were dealt for pennies on the dollar. This year, I'm optimistic. However, I'm tempering that enthusiasm a bit, because I don't want to ruin what should be a fun season with disappointment created by possibly too high expectations.

Enthusiastically, I can "see" this team contending for 55-60 wins. It has an absurd amount of talent and they all seem like smart, hard-working players. Low chances of implosion.

Tempered expectations are...if they make the playoffs, as any seed, I will be happy. That's all I need this year.

I think the result of those two things is that I can dream on the team, but still keep a very attainable goal (and one fairly necessary to legitimately show improvement) to avoid being upset by them "failing" to win 60 games.

 

[gatorpops]

I wonder how much we'll miss Jack and Jones. I know lots of people despise Jack on this board, but he was a tough player and showed some leadership on the floor. Jones also showed leadership and played some solid defense and hit that three point shot for us. We were absolutely HORRIBLE when he didn't play. Look at the record. It's not good. Yes, we're adding Rudy, but will he make the same impact that Jones made? Only time will tell.

Go Blazers

I watched the clip on O'live of the fan fest again and again and I saw Rudy making plays. One time the pass came to him on the right wing and with one motion he threw it to the top of the key. Smooth! Set up the play. Another time he was directing Bayless I think from the same spot to go to the corner. He just know Basketball and is instintive in the game. Like a point he knows the next move or two ahead. Many players like Webster and more so Outlaw don't seem to see that. Jones was good this way also to a lesser degree maybe. Rudy is so much more a player. He is like a vet in what he brings because he really is one.

g Blazer

 

[mook]

I watched the clip on O'live of the fan fest again and again and I saw Rudy making plays. One time the pass came to him on the right wing and with one motion he threw it to the top of the key. Smooth! Set up the play. Another time he was directing Bayless I think from the same spot to go to the corner. He just know Basketball and is instintive in the game. Like a point he knows the next move or two ahead. Many players like Webster and more so Outlaw don't seem to see that. Jones was good this way also to a lesser degree maybe. Rudy is so much more a player. He is like a vet in what he brings because he really is one.

g Blazer

No doubt. I watched every Spain game during the Olympics, too, and he constantly reminded me how smooth Roy looked right off the bat during his first summer league here. I don't know if he'll be as good as Roy was immediately, but on the continuum between Jack and Roy, he's much more like Roy in the polish of his game.

At this point in his rookie year, Jack was an intriguing prospect who we were optimistically projecting to be an NBA player. Pretty good for a non-lottery combo guard.

Nobody is debating that Fernandez is an NBA player--it's a question of whether he has future All-Star in him.

 

[mook]

I think the result of those two things is that I can dream on the team, but still keep a very attainable goal (and one fairly necessary to legitimately show improvement) to avoid being upset by them "failing" to win 60 games.

I'm pretty comfortable with predicting a 51-55 win season, but I don't have the same emotion tied to that prediction that I did with, say, the 2000 team. With this team I realize we have a lot of new parts and a ton of youth, and we could get derailed by 10 wins just because stuff happens. (It happened last year with Oden.) If we had gotten that badly derailed in 2000 with a fully loaded veteran team, I would have been mad as hell.

Going into 2000, I thought we had a 90% probability of going to 55 wins. Going into this season, I think we have a 60% probability of going to 53 or so wins. I think it's likely we'll succeed, but my expectations are tempered by a greater probability of failure.

So my prediction is high, but my expectations are lower. What's the difference? In 2000 if we'd gone off the rails, I'd be looking for Dunleavy's head. In 2008 if things go off the rails, I'll be looking for 2009.

 

[mook]

Point 3 I agree with.

You are wise. Or you would've been if you'd stopped there.

Point 2 is a mixed blessing. Not to sound like a broken record, but after a year of inactivity, Oden needs and deserves time to get back in the groove. You can argue that having Frye and LMA play center is a liability on defense, but it certainly wasn't on offense.

I really don't think Oden will be much of a downgrade on offense at Center than Aldridge and Frye were. Neither guy is really great at getting cheap buckets under the basket, so we ran something of a spread perimeter offense most of the time. We took more jumpshots than most NBA teams.

Oden is going to change all that. He's going to get several buckets a game just by being under the hoop and being bigger and stronger than anybody else there. He may not score more points than those guys did while playing center, but he'll do it at a higher percentage. And he'll create better spacing, because teams are going to have to protect the middle at all times.

Point 1 is certainly true in the long term - but the short term is an entirely different matter. Not only are we without Jack (a flawed but under-rated player), we are also facing uncertainty over Blake's health. If Blake misses (or is physically limited) for any appreciable ammount of time, our back-court could be a mess. Not to mention the added workload it dumps on Roy.

I think Fernandez is better than either of those guys right now, even without a chance to adjust to the NBA game. I could be wrong, but we'll start to find out within a few days just gauging his play in preseason.

I never hated Jack, and I actually like Blake. But at this stage in their careers they are both backup guards on most playoff teams. This team is better prepared to handle an injury to Blake than they were last year.

Roy's job gets easier this year, even if Blake is hindered. Aldridge looks better. Oden and Fernandez are new offensive options. Even Outlaw and Webster may continue to progress. Last year we didn't stand a chance if Roy had a bad game. This year we do.

One final note - and I know this will piss people off - but for the (roughly) half a season he was healthy, Jones was better than Webster. Not having that safety net at SF could cost a couple of games right there.

You are right. Jones was a better SF. He had a lethal perimeter shot and he was smarter. But Rudy looked pretty smart and had a pretty good perimeter shot in the Olympics too. And with Oden our perimeter shooters are going to be getting more open looks this season.

 

[andalusian]

I will be very surprised if this team does not win at least 47 games - I actually think that 50 is where they will end.

If all we get from Oden is a Pryzbilla like performance - it is a huge upgrade - since we are not being outrebounded and pushed around for half the game. If we get more (and I expect we will get much more) - it will be gravy.

Loved Jones - but Rudy is an upgrade. I actually liked Jack as well -and we will miss him a bit at the start of the year - but Bayless will grow to give us what Jack gave us pretty quickly.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I will be very surprised if this team does not win at least 47 games - I actually think that 50 is where they will end.

If all we get from Oden is a Pryzbilla like performance - it is a huge upgrade - since we are not being outrebounded and pushed around for half the game. If we get more (and I expect we will get much more) - it will be gravy.

Loved Jones - but Rudy is an upgrade. I actually liked Jack as well -and we will miss him a bit at the start of the year - but Bayless will grow to give us what Jack gave us pretty quickly.

As for the over-under on wins we've all got our "feel" for what will happen so there's really no right or wrong answer until mid April, but if all we get from Oden is a "Przybilla like" performance then that's not an upgrade, since we already have a center named Przybilla; allthat nets you is about 4 points per game along with 9ish boards. Oden has to be an upgrade over Joel for this team to have success (and this is not to knock Joel's game, because he's a defensive stud).

As for Rudy and Bayless filling the shoes of Jones and Jack, I see both players as clear upgrades over what we had before, Rudy will of course have to adjust to the NBA 3-point line, and Bayless is going to need to work on not over-dribbling, but both players are clearly better athletes, and in terms of the veteran presence that Jones provided, I see Rudy as being a consumate professional, and not your typical rookie, (kind of like Luis Scola).

The real variables in all of this is how quickly and well does everybody gel, how quickly all of our rookies adapt to the pace of the NBA, and whether or not team chemistry holds when a few (probably deserving) players aren't getting the minutes they'd like -- this especially worries me with so many guys coming into contract years.

 

[andalusian]

As for the over-under on wins we've all got our "feel" for what will happen so there's really no right or wrong answer until mid April, but if all we get from Oden is a "Przybilla like" performance then that's not an upgrade, since we already have a center named Przybilla; allthat nets you is about 4 points per game along with 9ish boards. Oden has to be an upgrade over Joel for this team to have success (and this is not to knock Joel's game, because he's a defensive stud).

Your math is wrong. Pryzbilla played 23.8 MPG last year. that's a half of a game. The other half - the team was undersized and underpowered.

If all you get is another Pryzbilla - it means you are not undersized and underpowered for the 2nd half of the game (since you will have Pryzbilla coming to replace Oden when he goes out and vice versa). It means this team no longer gets outrebounded.

This was the biggest problem of the Blazers last year. For 1/2 a game they were outrebounded and could not guard the interior. Another Pryzbilla solves this issue.

Of course, I expect Oden to be an upgrade over Pryzbilla on the offensive end with a bit of time - and probably on the defensive end from pretty much the get go. Add the fact that Oden puts a lot of pressure on the other team's defense and frees Aldridge (or gets the other team's bigs in foul trouble) - and it is clear that having him in the lineup - even if his offensive production is low - is huge.

The funny thing is, that Oden in the lineup will also make Pryzbilla a bigger and better offensive threat. He will not have to go against the other team's best bigs all the time - or if he does - they will already be tired from battling Oden in the middle.

Look for Joel to have a wonderful offensive year (by his standards). Everyday will be playing against Golden states day for him...

 

[Nikolokolus]

Your math is wrong. Pryzbilla played 23.8 MPG last year. that's a half of a game. The other half - the team was undersized and underpowered.

If all you get is another Pryzbilla - it means you are not undersized and underpowered for the 2nd half of the game (since you will have Pryzbilla coming to replace Oden when he goes out and vice versa). It means this team no longer gets outrebounded.

This was the biggest problem of the Blazers last year. For 1/2 a game they were outrebounded and could not guard the interior. Another Pryzbilla solves this issue.

Of course, I expect Oden to be an upgrade over Pryzbilla on the offensive end with a bit of time - and probably on the defensive end from pretty much the get go. Add the fact that Oden puts a lot of pressure on the other team's defense and frees Aldridge (or gets the other team's bigs in foul trouble) - and it is clear that having him in the lineup - even if his offensive production is low - is huge.

The funny thing is, that Oden in the lineup will also make Pryzbilla a bigger and better offensive threat. He will not have to go against the other team's best bigs all the time - or if he does - they will already be tired from battling Oden in the middle.

Look for Joel to have a wonderful offensive year (by his standards). Everyday will be playing against Golden states day for him...

I'll drink to that.