Around the NBA 2022 Playoffs: The Thread

[e_blazer]

I wish they had Olshey for the second round picks

I wish they had Olshey so they could fire his ass for a second time.

 

[illmatic99]

I wish they had Olshey for the second round picks

he hit on every single second rounder in 10 yrs. it's quite an achievement that people like to dismiss. he had a very clear strategy-- pick players from strong college programs and had a definable skill, rather than high upside unknowns. it was a relatively low-risk strategy, but it worked.

i do like the infusion of Schmitz to the staff particularly for this context, though.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I dont get why people don’t like Mathurin. Shoots well, he’s 6’6’, athletic. Why are we allergic to those guys? Because of Simons? Mathurin can play SF and SG.

Cause he's not really 6'6", didn't play defense, and shot pretty poorly in the catch-and-shoot. I don't see him flourishing alongside Dame and/or Ant.

 

[Hoopguru]

lil of both. this has now become a talking point among the NBA media folk last few days. Who is the next Wiggins, and can our team rescue him with a change of scenery?

Apparent criteria for said target:
- strong foundational talent who is miscast as a #1.
- coachable, desire to improve.
- willingness to listen. Recall his anti-vax stance to start the year. But he listened to his teammates who convinced him to change his mind for the team.
- strong skills at least on one end of the floor. Wiggins was always a strong defender. His offensive inefficiency was more the problem in Minny.
- zero injury history.
- Overpaid with dwindling trade value.

Possible names for us:
- Karl Towns, but his trade value is sky high at the moment unfortunately.
- Ben Simmons (injury list building)
- Jonathan Isaac (again a long injury history)
- Bagley
- Bamba
- Ayton
- Toppin

Ayton is sticking out to me. He's only 23. Can he take a leap? If he has a higher ceiling than where he is now, why not kick the tires?

Kenny Smith said when Wiggins was traded to GS he would become an all star. I heard his reasoning today, it was because he didn't have to be that 25 ppg consistent scorer, that he could shine everywhere else in his game. Which is exactly what he did during the season and playoffs. Defend, assist, boards!

 

[blazerfan11]

I dont get why people don’t like Mathurin. Shoots well, he’s 6’6’, athletic. Why are we allergic to those guys? Because of Simons? Mathurin can play SF and SG.

I think a lot of NBA teams like him. He could end up in Detroit if Ivey is gone by the 5th pick, or end up in Indiana.
Some Blazer fans are looking to plug holes in the lineup instead of trying to figure out who the best player available at the 7th pick is.

 

[blazerfan11]

Cause he's not really 6'6", didn't play defense, and shot pretty poorly in the catch-and-shoot. I don't see him flourishing alongside Dame and/or Ant.

Yes, he really is 6'6". That was his measurement in shoes at the combine.
His standing reach of 8'8" is only one inch less than 6' 7.5" Dyson Daniels standing reach of 8'9".

 

[Shaboid]

I know it's a team game, and I'm admittedly a duck hater, but look at GPII getting a ring before that Pritchard guy! It almost makes it okay for me that the fucking warriors won. Ugh, I'm conflicted.

Go Beavs!

 

[illmatic99]

Cause he's not really 6'6", didn't play defense, and shot pretty poorly in the catch-and-shoot. I don't see him flourishing alongside Dame and/or Ant.

can you point to where this catch and shoot number is coming from? i saw that mentioned a few times but don't know where it's from. Doesn't match my eye test. His release looks terrific and i think very scalable to NBA range, and he moves really well off the ball with his cuts to the hoop.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

can you point to where this catch and shoot number is coming from? i saw that mentioned a few times but don't know where it's from. Doesn't match my eye test. His release looks terrific and i think very scalable to NBA range, and he moves really well off the ball with his cuts to the hoop.

https://prospectingleads.substack.com/p/bennedict-mathurin-tell-me-what-you

Very strangely, this indicates that he scored 1.1 PPP in guarded C/S, but only 0.786 in open C/S (17th percentile). I think that's the figure that has been pointed out repeatedly.

Kinda undercuts my prior post...

 

[illmatic99]

https://prospectingleads.substack.com/p/bennedict-mathurin-tell-me-what-you

Very strangely, this indicates that he scored 1.1 PPP in guarded C/S, but only 0.786 in open C/S (17th percentile). I think that's the figure that has been pointed out repeatedly.

Kinda undercuts my prior post...

those numbers don't make sense, or this description:

The off-ball scoring package here is pretty (transitions into ridiculous Eminem impression) phenomenal. There are few players in this class with his ability to hit difficult shots off the catch whether flying around screens or shooting over a heavy contest. His footwork and fluidity getting into his shot is really impressive off-ball and creates a floor of offensive value that should allow him to stick in the league on that alone. Off-ball shooters that provide gravity not just in spot-up situations but out of movement actions are worth their weight in gold and go a long way in driving offensive success.

this is what i saw from him when scouting. i don't see him shooting less than 37/38 % ever in his career even on decent volume. the footwork and release are picture perfect. And given his movement off the ball to the basket with perfect timing, i see him as an ideal fit next to ball dominant guard(s).

 

[blazerfan11]

Cause he's not really 6'6", didn't play defense, and shot pretty poorly in the catch-and-shoot. I don't see him flourishing alongside Dame and/or Ant.

He didn't play defense? Ever, at all? His defense, potential and actual, is/was much better than Anfernee Simons and Damian Lillard.
Look at the discussion about Andrew Wiggins. In Minnesota, he was asked to be "the Man." At Golden State he was asked to focus much more on defense. There is no physical reason why Mathurin can't do that too, and be a plus defender.
Go to the 9:40 point in this video and tell me how often we have seen Anfernee Simons or Damian Lillard play the level of defense that Mathurin has already shown. Moving his feet to stay in front of his man, blocking shots, stripping balls, getting steals in passing lanes.

 

[illmatic99]

@PtldPlatypus this is in complete contrast to that number. I think we are misinterpreting that.

https://lookcharms.com/draft-2022-the-profile-of-bennedict-mathurin-arizona/

- Majority of his shots come off catch and shoot scenarios.
- He shot only 35% on shots off the dribble, but 38% overall, meaning his C&S efficiency was greater.

This confirms what I saw in the footage. Dude works really well off ball, but is a work in progress off the dribble.

 

[illmatic99]

Another one:

https://www.si.com/nba/pelicans/nba/mathurin-leads-pelicans-list-of-international-draft-prospects

Arizona was heavy on Mathurin's off-ball actions leading to catch and shoot three-pointers while shooting 37% on 225 attempts last season. He flirted with 40% in two seasons with the Wildcats.

 

[calvin natt]

Cause he's not really 6'6", didn't play defense, and shot pretty poorly in the catch-and-shoot. I don't see him flourishing alongside Dame and/or Ant.

Meh. He will be a stud. If he was perfect he’d be going at 1. Shot well at AZ.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

he hit on every single second rounder in 10 yrs. it's quite an achievement that people like to dismiss. he had a very clear strategy-- pick players from strong college programs and had a definable skill, rather than high upside unknowns. it was a relatively low-risk strategy, but it worked.

i do like the infusion of Schmitz to the staff particularly for this context, though.

Do we know that Olshey actually 'made' those picks? No GM really makes any pick independently. I would imagine the lower the pick, the more a GM would defer to the recommendations of his scout team.

 

[illmatic99]

Do we know that Olshey actually 'made' those picks? No GM really makes any pick independently. I would imagine the lower the pick, the more a GM would defer to the recommendations of his scout team.

you would hope that cronin contributed to that thought process to some extent.

 

[TBpup]

I dont get why people don’t like Mathurin. Shoots well, he’s 6’6’, athletic. Why are we allergic to those guys? Because of Simons? Mathurin can play SF and SG.

Apparently, there is a large difference in shots off a fast break, and in the half-court offense. Some scout had him at something like 26% shooting on jumpers in the half-court.

 

[illmatic99]

Apparently, there is a large difference in shots off a fast break, and in the half-court offense. Some scout had him at something like 26% shooting on jumpers in the half-court.

What scout? sometimes i feel like these evals were of a completely different player.

here's what KOC said today:

• His role was to spot up and shoot 3s during his freshman season and he drilled 41.8 percent of them. As a sophomore, he was asked to do a lot more but he still made 38.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples, which includes a large number on extremely high difficulty. He’s a dynamic weapon who can shoot off movement, or attack straight off the catch.
• 
  
• He shouldn’t be expected to be a lead playmaker. He’s probably best suited to play in an offense that features multiple ball handlers. He’s not a main facilitator because his playmaking is solid but not spectacular. Think about him like Jamal Murray, whose game is enhanced by Nikola Jokic.

 

[TBpup]

What scout? sometimes i feel like these evals were of a completely different player.

here's what KOC said today:

• His role was to spot up and shoot 3s during his freshman season and he drilled 41.8 percent of them. As a sophomore, he was asked to do a lot more but he still made 38.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples, which includes a large number on extremely high difficulty. He’s a dynamic weapon who can shoot off movement, or attack straight off the catch.
• 
  
• He shouldn’t be expected to be a lead playmaker. He’s probably best suited to play in an offense that features multiple ball handlers. He’s not a main facilitator because his playmaking is solid but not spectacular. Think about him like Jamal Murray, whose game is enhanced by Nikola Jokic.

Don't remember specifically. It was a week or so ago in a number of pods. They all seemed to be using the same data because it was mentioned multiple times in a 2-3 day window.

 

[JDC]

Don't remember specifically. It was a week or so ago in a number of pods. They all seemed to be using the same data because it was mentioned multiple times in a 2-3 day window.

I'm pretty sure they're using Bart Torvik's "far 2" numbers. He was a little over 27% in that area both years at Arizona.

 

[Hoopguru]

Enes Kanter Freedom: 'The NBA is a 100 percent American-made organization that the Chinese dictatorship runs'

Enes Kanter Freedom: The NBA, in my opinion, is the most hypocritical organization out there. So we need to keep pushing the NBA to stand up for what is right. The NBA is a 100 percent American-made organization that the Chinese dictatorship runs. That is unacceptable. Someone, whether it’s the Senate or other politicians, needs to say “enough is enough.” And it’s not just the NBA. Chinese-controlled US institutions also include Hollywood and academia. Someone has to stop this.

– via OutKick

 

[illmatic99]

Don't remember specifically. It was a week or so ago in a number of pods. They all seemed to be using the same data because it was mentioned multiple times in a 2-3 day window.

I'm pretty sure they're using Bart Torvik's "far 2" numbers. He was a little over 27% in that area both years at Arizona.

man, i dunno what to trust. it certainly does not align with what i saw in his game.

 

[Driew]

He didn't play defense? Ever, at all? His defense, potential and actual, is/was much better than Anfernee Simons and Damian Lillard.
Look at the discussion about Andrew Wiggins. In Minnesota, he was asked to be "the Man." At Golden State he was asked to focus much more on defense. There is no physical reason why Mathurin can't do that too, and be a plus defender.
Go to the 9:40 point in this video and tell me how often we have seen Anfernee Simons or Damian Lillard play the level of defense that Mathurin has already shown. Moving his feet to stay in front of his man, blocking shots, stripping balls, getting steals in passing lanes.

Holy shit that was impressive. You make a good case for him.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

somebody needs to do a comparison of Warriors vs Blazers revenue. I think GS has led the NBA in gate receipts for years now. I think they have a new local TV contract worth several times that of Portland. And an international streaming rights deal. And naming rights contracts worth millions a year

it's easy to make a giant financial commitment when the cash is constantly flowing in. And of course it's easier to make that commitment when you definitely know you're a contender and not a pretender. In other words, comparison of financial situations might be a lot of apples to oranges. The age old big-market/small-market skew. It very well might be the Warriors can be profitable with a 350M payroll while Portland can't be at half that number

If the Blazers win a Championship it could change quickly. If they win two it will change quickly! Winning brings fans from all over and that brings $$$

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Hello.

So. Dubs win another.

GSW makes it to the finals four years in a row with the best two guard lineup in the NBA. One being offensive minded and one being defensive minded.
Klay goes down and they don't make the playoffs. Klay comes back and they win yet again.
Portland, with two offensive guards, cant even get to the finals. Portland trades one offensive guard.
It really seems fairly obvious putting another offensive guard next to Dame will not accomplish anything more than what CJ provided.
I love Ant and fully believe he has All Star potential. But I do not think he is a good pairing with Dame.
To me, if Portland were to contend, it would require Hart to start at the 2guard and Ant to come off the bench.

Now some might say he is gonna get paid too much for that.
I disagree. If I were management, and I felt he could be the long term future, then I do everything I can to sell him on Taking over the tram when Dame retires.
I would sell him on Portland wanting him to follow the mold of Dame and retire here and become the next face of the franchise.
I believe this could leverage a 3-4 year contract in the 12-15 mill range. I would sell him on doing what the team needs while Dame is here and then we will do the same for Ant when he is handed the BlazingTorch.
Tell him that as long as he continues to grow he will be the next max contract after Dame.

If this could be a sell, then all focus can be put into the forward spots, development of Nas and Winslow, development of the draft picks or another impact player we get in a trade.
And i could actually see us being pretty good. A few more tweaks and potential contenders.

Its all about defense. If we don't put a stopper next to Dame, I just don't see how it can work.
But if we can get an all nba defender at the two or three, I really believe we are close to contending. Dame is going to have his best and healthiest year of his career. Ant and Little are going to break out. Nurk will become content with his limited roll on offense and anchor down the paint on defense.
With the right move or two and playing the positions wisely, I cant help be somewhat optimistic for the future!

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I dont get why people don’t like Mathurin. Shoots well, he’s 6’6’, athletic. Why are we allergic to those guys? Because of Simons? Mathurin can play SF and SG.

Best player available when the time comes.
Picking anything different is not real smart no matter what your need seems to be.

 

[handiman]

he hit on every single second rounder in 10 yrs. it's quite an achievement that people like to dismiss. he had a very clear strategy-- pick players from strong college programs and had a definable skill, rather than high upside unknowns. it was a relatively low-risk strategy, but it worked.

I've wondered why Wendell Moore is looking like only a low- to mid-2nd round pick, as I like him more than top-10 teammate AJ Griffin, and he fits that strategy perfectly.

 

[TBpup]

I've wondered why Wendell Moore is looking like only a low- to mid-2nd round pick, as I like him more than top-10 teammate AJ Griffin, and he fits that strategy perfectly.

One of D69's value picks for where he is slated.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Hello.


To me, if Portland were to contend, it would require Hart to start at the 2guard and Ant to come off the bench.

Now some might say he is gonna get paid too much for that.
I disagree. If I were management, and I felt he could be the long-term future, then I do everything I can to sell him on Taking over the tram when Dame retires.
I would sell him on Portland wanting him to follow the mold of Dame and retire here and become the next face of the franchise.

I agree with you. Ant will get his minutes and he will get his money. Why wouldn't he want to win as well?
Even if he does come off the bench like many of us are asking for, Dame won't be playing all 82 games. Plenty of opportunities for Ant to start. And at the end of games when Chauncey goes offense-defense, Simons will be needed. Plus I think he improved quite a bit on defense last year. I see no reason for that trend to stop under Billups. He is athletic and will continue to get stronger.

 

[STOMP]

somebody needs to do a comparison of Warriors vs Blazers revenue. I think GS has led the NBA in gate receipts for years now. I think they have a new local TV contract worth several times that of Portland. And an international streaming rights deal. And naming rights contracts worth millions a year

it's easy to make a giant financial commitment when the cash is constantly flowing in. And of course it's easier to make that commitment when you definitely know you're a contender and not a pretender. In other words, comparison of financial situations might be a lot of apples to oranges. The age old big-market/small-market skew. It very well might be the Warriors can be profitable with a 350M payroll while Portland can't be at half that number

I'm sure the finances in Portland would improve exponentially if they drafted like Golden State has. It's not like the Warriors were a cash flowing gold mine when Gruber and Lacob bought them from their previous penny pinching sue everyone owner Chris Cohan.

STOMP