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My goodness look at PJ Tucker. Meanwhile blazers couldn’t get a rebound to save their life all series Against the lakers. And PJ Tucker is amongst trees grabbing offensive rebounds like it’s nothing
 
D’Antoni is a much better coach than Stotts.
 
Too bad

Wanted the Fakers to go down 0-2
 
God houston is the pure definition of feast or famine. That ain’t it
 
I really love that Westbrick has been trending on twitter during and after every Rockets game lately.
 
Tince said:
We had a bunch of sizable comebacks this year didn't we?
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I know we did have a bunch that we won but right now all I can think of is that amazing comeback in the bubble against Boston that we couldn't hold on to. Ugh!
 
wizenheimer said:
the one thing I'll say about that is that none of us posting here makes a dollar evaluating draft prospects. What does Olshey make...3 million/year? That means the standards of success and failure are completely different
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But 16 posts in the same thread saying the same thing over and over again? How about we go back three years and find out exactly who was thinking Bam was going to be better than Collins?
You know why Olshey didn't pick him? Because absolutely NO ONE said he would be better than Zach Collins. And as a matter of fact lets see where they are at the end of next year? Something tells me the gap between the two will not be that much.
 
kjironman1 said:
But 16 posts in the same thread saying the same thing over and over again? How about we go back three years and find out exactly who was thinking Bam was going to be better than Collins?
You know why Olshey didn't pick him? Because absolutely NO ONE said he would be better than Zach Collins. And as a matter of fact lets see where they are at the end of next year? Something tells me the gap between the two will not be that much.
Click to expand...

Oh damn you believe in Zach that MUCH ? I’ll tell you this though, I wouldn’t be mad if I was wrong. But I HIGHLY doubt it. Bam is very special
 
kjironman1 said:
But 16 posts in the same thread saying the same thing over and over again? How about we go back three years and find out exactly who was thinking Bam was going to be better than Collins?
You know why Olshey didn't pick him? Because absolutely NO ONE said he would be better than Zach Collins. And as a matter of fact lets see where they are at the end of next year? Something tells me the gap between the two will not be that much.
Click to expand...

whatever that "something" is you should have it examined. Adebayo is about 3 tiers better than Zach. In a playoff game today he had 26 points on 13 shots, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. Bam averaged 16 pts, 10 rebs, and 5 asts this year. For Zach to match that, he'd have to increase his scoring by 127%, his rebounding by 62% and his assists by 240%. He'd have to more than double his PER and improve his winshare/48 by 3.2 times. I won't even calculate how much he'd have to upgrade his BPM, but Zach is at -3.1 while Abedayo is at +3.4. That's a mile-wide gulf

I get that some of you guys are still high on Zach, but trying to argue he's close to the same level as John Collins or Bam Adebayo is just loopy. It's made loopier when the argument is based on the theory he'll get that good sometime next year. He's the same age as John Collins and Adebayo....why wouldn't they improve at the same rate that Zach does?
 
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kjironman1 said:
But 16 posts in the same thread saying the same thing over and over again? How about we go back three years and find out exactly who was thinking Bam was going to be better than Collins?
You know why Olshey didn't pick him? Because absolutely NO ONE said he would be better than Zach Collins. And as a matter of fact lets see where they are at the end of next year? Something tells me the gap between the two will not be that much.
Click to expand...
I'm with you on what your saying but I did think Bam was going to be great and Collins was an unknown to me because he didn't start at Gonzaga and didn't do what Bam did at the combine. I wasn't mad about the pick though and I just think criticizing draft picks is asinine. Every GM misses on draft picks a lot, so it's just part of the game... especially when you are drafting where we have been since drafting Dame (anywhere 10 or later). It's even more ridiculous to be judging picks as hits or misses before they've had a chance to develop.
 
I don't get why people compare players who have different roles on teams as though their stats should be the same.

While Bam is the 5th (I'm not counting Winslow since he missed most of the season) on the team in shots per game, the Heat also had no one who had the volume or shots as Dame or CJ (or anyone who SHOULD have that volume of shots). Their top* player shot 13.6 shots per game. That'd be tied for 3rd most on the Blazers (Nurk, if healthy all year).

Bam is a good player, no doubt, but people seem to forget that his (offensive) role would be completely different. I'm not sure his #'s would be anywhere close to what they are now, and not significantly different then Zach's here.

Especially if you consider how the team is made up now. with Ariza, Hood and Anthony all potentially competing for minutes and shots next year. Those shots are going to have to come from somewhere, and I suspect it'll be the PF spot/Zach.



By "top" I meant the player who shot the most, not their best player.
 
wizenheimer said:
whatever that "something" is you should have it examined. Adebayo is about 3 tiers better than Zach. In a playoff game today he had 26 points on 13 shots, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. Bam averaged 16 pts, 10 rebs, and 5 asts this year. For Zach to match that, he'd have to increase his scoring by 127%, his rebounding by 62% and his assists by 240%. He'd have to more than double his PER and improve his winshare/48 by 3.2 times. I won't even calculate how much he'd have to upgrade his BPM, but Zach is at -3.1 while Abedayo is at +3.4. That's a mile-wide gulf

I get that some of you guys are still high on Zach, but trying to argue he's close to the same level as John Collins or Bam Adebayo is just loopy. It's made loopier when the argument is based on the theory he'll get that good sometime next year. He's the same age as John Collins and Adebayo....why wouldn't they improve at the same rate that Zach does?
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First off John Collins plays for a team where they depend on him greatly. Much different situation. In his 3 seasons he has played nearly 5000 professional NBA mins.
Bam Adebayo has played a total over 5600 professional minutes and has been largely uninjured.

Now understand something here. This conversation is not about trashing either John Collins or Bam Adebayo. I personally would have loved getting either and having them in a Blazer uniform. They have both been healthy and they are both great character guys But in contrast this is about where Zach is and where he was taken in the draft. Bam Coming from Kentucky where he had a stellar career and JC coming from Wake Forest where he also played very well and had a great college run. There is a legitimate conversation here as to why they were not recruited higher? Believe me when i tell you i am certain more than just Olshey is thinking "Wow i wiffed on that!".

I use a couple of old time metrics that a bunch of the newer "Stat Guys" don't like much anymore but they have always worked for me. Games started and minutes played give you a look at not only their overall experience but what their prospective team is asking them to do. Remember the Blazers had a great defending PF in Aminu that worked as hard as any player in the league for Zach's first two years for him to excel and grow into his position. We all watched various times when Zach came in and provided a huge spark and showed flashes of what he is capable of in this league. He is absolutely no Meyers Leonard.
Zach has played a grand total of 2691 mins and has started a total of 12 games where JC has started 126 and Bam has started 119 games. That alone will give you a little look at the level the game has slowed down for each of them. Zach pretty much lost his entire 3rd year which was supposed to be his "Coming Out" party and actually has been if you look at just how well the team performed when he was playing the 10-3 record speaks volumes.

Now lets look at your stats. Another poster said you cherry pick and in this case it seems as though you might have fallen victim to that. You took Bam's totals this year but seem to have left off Career. Bam's career numbers are only 10.5 points per game. Zach is at 7 this year. 5.7 for career. But how can we honestly compare these numbers when one player was out with a shoulder injury the entire year and then injured his foot in the playoffs and the other just logged a team high 44 minutes and was asked to be the #1 option on offense. I'm betting Zach if asked to play 44 minutes as a number one option on offense and was told to stay out of the paint and not get fouls because they needed him on offense he could easily get 26 points and just defensive rebounding alone he could get 10. If he had the ball in his hands as much as Bam i'm betting 6 assists would happen without question. Way closer than three tiers below don't you think?

The portion of my post YOU highlighted said
kjironman1 said:
Something tells me the gap between the two will not be that much.
Click to expand...
Then you added this
wizenheimer said:
but trying to argue he's close to the same level as John Collins or Bam Adebayo is just loopy. It's made loopier when the argument is based on the theory he'll get that good sometime next year.
Click to expand...

Nobody said he is at the same level but to think his numbers will not get better with a full season in a starting role under him is even Loopier than anyone saying he will improve. What is even more telling is that you actually think Bam's numbers will continue to be "Three Tiers" your words not mine above Zach Collins. My bet here is Zach will get to around that 10-12 points and hopefully 8-10 rebounds a game in this system. but while on the floor Nurks numbers will go way up as well as help Dame create "WINS" on the court. Not every player can be the number one option or even the second option. But you will also see games when Zach will be the mismatch and he will score 20+ points get 3-4 blocks dish out 5-6 assists and pull in 10 rebounds. If he gets and stays healthy it will happen. Mark my words.

Now would you like to speak about 3 pt shooting or do we want to leave that out? Because Zach is on the floor as a fourth option on offense. He will be asked while playing with Damian Lillard, CJ McCollumn and Nurkic to spread the floor and be able to hit a three point shot. Zach is career 32% but this year 37% shooter from 3 pt. Do you want to look at Bam's numbers? Now JC can shoot the three no question. But again the guy isn't playing as a fourth option on offense now is he?
 
kjironman1 said:
First off John Collins plays for a team where they depend on him greatly. Much different situation. In his 3 seasons he has played nearly 5000 professional NBA mins.
Bam Adebayo has played a total over 5600 professional minutes and has been largely uninjured.

Now understand something here. This conversation is not about trashing either John Collins or Bam Adebayo. I personally would have loved getting either and having them in a Blazer uniform. They have both been healthy and they are both great character guys But in contrast this is about where Zach is and where he was taken in the draft. Bam Coming from Kentucky where he had a stellar career and JC coming from Wake Forest where he also played very well and had a great college run. There is a legitimate conversation here as to why they were not recruited higher? Believe me when i tell you i am certain more than just Olshey is thinking "Wow i wiffed on that!".

I use a couple of old time metrics that a bunch of the newer "Stat Guys" don't like much anymore but they have always worked for me. Games started and minutes played give you a look at not only their overall experience but what their prospective team is asking them to do. Remember the Blazers had a great defending PF in Aminu that worked as hard as any player in the league for Zach's first two years for him to excel and grow into his position. We all watched various times when Zach came in and provided a huge spark and showed flashes of what he is capable of in this league. He is absolutely no Meyers Leonard.
Zach has played a grand total of 2691 mins and has started a total of 12 games where JC has started 126 and Bam has started 119 games. That alone will give you a little look at the level the game has slowed down for each of them. Zach pretty much lost his entire 3rd year which was supposed to be his "Coming Out" party and actually has been if you look at just how well the team performed when he was playing the 10-3 record speaks volumes.

Now lets look at your stats. Another poster said you cherry pick and in this case it seems as though you might have fallen victim to that. You took Bam's totals this year but seem to have left off Career. Bam's career numbers are only 10.5 points per game. Zach is at 7 this year. 5.7 for career. But how can we honestly compare these numbers when one player was out with a shoulder injury the entire year and then injured his foot in the playoffs and the other just logged a team high 44 minutes and was asked to be the #1 option on offense. I'm betting Zach if asked to play 44 minutes as a number one option on offense and was told to stay out of the paint and not get fouls because they needed him on offense he could easily get 26 points and just defensive rebounding alone he could get 10. If he had the ball in his hands as much as Bam i'm betting 6 assists would happen without question. Way closer than three tiers below don't you think?

The portion of my post YOU highlighted said

Then you added this


Nobody said he is at the same level but to think his numbers will not get better with a full season in a starting role under him is even Loopier than anyone saying he will improve. What is even more telling is that you actually think Bam's numbers will continue to be "Three Tiers" your words not mine above Zach Collins. My bet here is Zach will get to around that 10-12 points and hopefully 8-10 rebounds a game in this system. but while on the floor Nurks numbers will go way up as well as help Dame create "WINS" on the court. Not every player can be the number one option or even the second option. But you will also see games when Zach will be the mismatch and he will score 20+ points get 3-4 blocks dish out 5-6 assists and pull in 10 rebounds. If he gets and stays healthy it will happen. Mark my words.

Now would you like to speak about 3 pt shooting or do we want to leave that out? Because Zach is on the floor as a fourth option on offense. He will be asked while playing with Damian Lillard, CJ McCollumn and Nurkic to spread the floor and be able to hit a three point shot. Zach is career 32% but this year 37% shooter from 3 pt. Do you want to look at Bam's numbers? Now JC can shoot the three no question. But again the guy isn't playing as a fourth option on offense now is he?
Click to expand...

wow...that got you rolling. Good job. Be careful of multiple paragraphs though, some here might condemn you for it

let's simplify a little: can we agree that right now there's a really significant gap between the level of Zach's development and the level of development of Adebayo and J. Collins?

PER: Adebayo 20.3....John Collins 23.5....Zach 9.9
TS%: Adebayo .598....John Collins .659....Zach .538
FT Rate: Adebayo .484....John Collins .248....Zach .118
Reb Rate: Adebayo 17.0%....John Collins 16.4%....Zach 12.4%
winshare/48: Adebayo .168....John Collins .174....Zach .052
BPM: Adebayo 3.4....John Collins 3.1....Zach -3.1

yeah, that's pretty significant

now, that's just a snapshot of the just completed regular season and that's probably unfair to Zach because of the injury and only an 11 game sample size. Generally, those numbers are lower than his career numbers and he'd compared a little better if I'd used last season as his template. But we just don't know at this point if last season was a sign of things to come or a high water mark

nonetheless, that's where things were when the season ended. Besides that, several people have been harping on Portland's 8-3 record with Zach this season as some kind of gauge of Zach's impact. It's a dumb gauge of course, but since that's out there then it's a little more justified to use Zach's numbers this year in the comparison
********************************************************

* the room for improvement for all three players: I'll concede that the season Zach had theoretically leaves him with room for more improvement next season than the other two. That's a theory though. Without looking it up I believe all three players are within 4 months of each other in ages, so all three players have plenty of room for upside. And that's going to be true every off-season for the next 5-6 years. Hell, Dame improved this season from last season and he was 29 last season.
*********************************************************

* playing time: Zach and JC have played in the same number of games; Adebayo has played in about 60 more. Adebayo has earned his minutes, in large part by beating out Whiteside for the starting role. JC had to beat out Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala for the start. Zach had to beat out Aminu. Doesn't really look like any were just handed minutes until Zach was to start this season
**********************************************************

* opportunity: I disagree with the notion that players will post better numbers if they have bigger roles on crappy teams. On the surface of raw volume stats, sure; more shots = more points. But relevant context chases that assumption off the court. Mediocre players with big roles will post mediocre efficiency and mediocre impact rates. A player who will post an average TS% is more likely to post that average rate with more opportunity. Just look at CJ. Adebayo and JC have improved each season in efficiency and impact rates even as their roles increased. That should not be dismissed from the equation just because Zach hasn't had that opportunity yet. You guys keep saying Zach has a different role than the other two. I agree; Adebayo and JC have elevated themselves from role-players to legitimate starters and core pieces. They've earned that distinction. Zach is still a role player
************************************************************

* potential: it probably seems like I'm trashing Zach but I'm not. IMO, I'm pushing back against overreaches in comparisons. "Potential" is a relatively neutral term. I have the potential to have a good day right now but my wife can change that at any time. Potential is standing in a hall with a bunch of doors. Nobody knows what's behind the doors.

If you guys were arguing that next year, Zach could be better than Aminu I wouldn't have engaged. Zach was certainly better at defending Millsap in one game than Aminu was in 5. That would be Zach developing into a better role player than he is, and that's credible. But when the target is a player like Adebayo or JC that just seems a bridge too far to me
 
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wizenheimer said:
the one thing I'll say about that is that none of us posting here makes a dollar evaluating draft prospects. What does Olshey make...3 million/year? That means the standards of success and failure are completely different
Click to expand...

Neil should be judged compared to other GMs. Is he doing better than average for the pick range he is given? Id say yes. I have plenty of other problems with Neils roster construction and shitty contracts he gives out, the draft is the one area I'm most happy with him.

I swear posters here expect him to draft the perfect player at every pick.

Its like criticizing a professional poker player because he doesnt get a royal flush.

The best drafting GMs miss all the time. Its a very inexact process. Look at all the shitty picks in the top 10 of Zach class. There's only two that are certainly superior and a number are total busts. Look at half the league that passed on Giannis and Kawhi.
 
wizenheimer said:
wow...that got you rolling. Good job. Be careful of multiple paragraphs though, some here might condemn you for it

let's simplify a little: can we agree that right now there's a really significant gap between the level of Zach's development and the level of development of Adebayo and J. Collins?

PER: Adebayo 20.3....John Collins 23.5....Zach 9.9
TS%: Adebayo .598....John Collins .659....Zach .538
FT Rate: Adebayo .484....John Collins .248....Zach .118
Reb Rate: Adebayo 17.0%....John Collins 16.4%....Zach 12.4%
winshare/48: Adebayo .168....John Collins .174....Zach .052
BPM: Adebayo 3.4....John Collins 3.1....Zach -3.1

yeah, that's pretty significant

now, that's just a snapshot of the just completed regular season and that's probably unfair to Zach because of the injury and only an 11 game sample size. Generally, those numbers are lower than his career numbers and he'd compared a little better if I'd used last season as his template. But we just don't know at this point if last season was a sign of things to come or a high water mark

nonetheless, that's where things were when the season ended. Besides that, several people have been harping on Portland's 8-3 record with Zach this season as some kind of gauge of Zach's impact. It's a dumb gauge of course, but since that's out there then it's a little more justified to use Zach's numbers this year in the comparison
********************************************************

* the room for improvement for all three players: I'll concede that the season Zach had theoretically leaves him with room for more improvement next season than the other two. That's a theory though. Without looking it up I believe all three players are within 4 months of each other in ages, so all three players have plenty of room for upside. And that's going to be true every off-season for the next 5-6 years. Hell, Dame improved this season from last season and he was 29 last season.
*********************************************************

* playing time: Zach and JC have played in the same number of games; Adebayo has played in about 60 more. Adebayo has earned his minutes, in large part by beating out Whiteside for the starting role. JC had to beat out Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala for the start. Zach had to beat out Aminu. Doesn't really look like any were just handed minutes until Zach was to start this season
**********************************************************

* opportunity: I disagree with the notion that players will post better numbers if they have bigger roles on crappy teams. On the surface of raw volume stats, sure; more shots = more points. But relevant context chases that assumption off the court. Mediocre players with big roles will post mediocre efficiency and mediocre impact rates. A player who will post an average TS% is more likely to post that average rate with more opportunity. Just look at CJ. Adebayo and JC have improved each season in efficiency and impact rates even as their roles increased. That should not be dismissed from the equation just because Zach hasn't had that opportunity yet. You guys keep saying Zach has a different role than the other two. I agree; Adebayo and JC have elevated themselves from role-players to legitimate starters and core pieces. They've earned that distinction. Zach is still a role player
************************************************************

* potential: it probably seems like I'm trashing Zach but I'm not. IMO, I'm pushing back against overreaches in comparisons. "Potential" is a relatively neutral term. I have the potential to have a good day right now but my wife can change that at any time. Potential is standing in a hall with a bunch of doors. Nobody knows what's behind the doors.

If you guys were arguing that next year, Zach could be better than Aminu I wouldn't have engaged. Zach was certainly better at defending Millsap in one game than Aminu was in 5. That would be Zach developing into a better role player than he is, and that's credible. But when the target is a player like Adebayo or JC that just seems a bridge too far to me
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I can respect your response. I absolutely do not agree with it on many levels but that doesn't mean i'm right and you are wrong.
Just gonna agree to disagree here.
Take care. Hope you enjoy your Labor Day.
 
I'm rooting for Boston to win it all. That way they get to add another title to their total and it'll piss off laker fans.
 
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