As of today Hollingers says..

[MIXUM]

Blazers have 36% chance of playoffs! Holy shit does an indy loss cause that much damage???

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds


Memphis now 61% and Jazz at 50%

Houston at 32%

WOW

 

[andalusian]

... and that's why Cho needs to trade the vets (Camby/Miller/Joel) for something - even if it means lottery.

The Camby injury really killed the playoffs hopes for this team, imho.

 

[MIXUM]

um... no. we are 6-3 without him.

what hurt us? losing on the raod vs wash, philly, gs(xmas), nets, two last minute losses to okc, and a home loss to sac.

 

[hasoos]

Its more than the Indy loss. They lost to Denver right before that, and they didn't look good in either game. They didn't look good in the Cleveland game either, but pulled it out.

I agree that the Camby loss has hurt the team. The team has been losing the rebound war a lot lately, and those extra posessions are wearing down an already thin team.

 

[andalusian]

um... no. we are 6-3 without him.

Actually 6-4 - and two of these losses were against not the greatest teams with big that could contain LMA and hurt us when playing against an immobile Joel and Dante (Indiana, Kings). Going 8-2 instead of 6-4 in the last 10 would have changed the outlook of these predictions (as they are heavily weighted for the last 10 games).

Add the fact that the Celtics also had a size advantage against the Blazers - and Camby being out lead to a lot of the players playing more minutes and being much more tired against Denver (where they did well for 3 quarters before running out of steam) - and it is pretty clear that Camby's absence was a big blow in the last 10 games.

This team went from being at least better in rebounds with Camby - to being undermanned, undersized and too tired. Camby's loss really screwed this team's playoffs odds.

 

[MIXUM]

i disagree and hes coming back friday

 

[andalusian]

What do you disagree with - that it's 6-4 instead of 6-3? Go check the log. That the formula is heavily weighed on the last 10 games - go check the formula. That LMA is much more dominant when his is fresh? Go check that SAS game. That Dante and Joel are not as good as Camby this year?

What is there to disagree with? It's all facts.

 

[hasoos]

i disagree and hes coming back friday

Well here is the flaw in your thinking Mixum. You assume that because their record was decent during the stretch that he didn't effect them. But you miss the fact they could have won more games with him in the lineup. Go back and look at the losses to Indy and Denver and look at the rebounding, and tell me he wouldn't have made a difference again.

 

[e_blazer]

Man, I guess it's a good thing that Hollinger's formula isn't used by the NBA to determine which teams get into the playoffs.

 

[PapaG]

Hollinger thought David West was a lock for the All Star game.

 

[THE HCP]

^HAHAHA!

 

[maxiep]

Hollinger has a formula. In this case, it points to us having a little better than a one-in-three chance. Big deal.

 

[andalusian]

... woot woot - as of today the Blazers playoff odds are better than Memphis's after a long time it was not so - and this is even before Rudy Gay's disappearance can be felt by the formula...

Since I have had a post up there saying that this is why Camby/Miller should be trade material - I would like to replace it with - Camby more than Miller, and Miller only for a slam dunk.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I don't understand why people care about this? I mean the L*kers had a 99.9% chance of beating Cleveland last night. These numbers mean nothing, especially before the trade deadline

 

[andalusian]

I don't understand why people care about this? I mean the L*kers had a 99.9% chance of beating Cleveland last night. These numbers mean nothing, especially before the trade deadline

Because it is interesting - and with a large sample size seem to be pretty close to reality.

 

[crowTrobot]

... woot woot - as of today the Blazers playoff odds are better than Memphis's

and LMA has a PER over 22 for the first time

 

[Minstrel]

I don't understand why people care about this? I mean the L*kers had a 99.9% chance of beating Cleveland last night.

So if someone offered you a 50-50 bet on a Lakers-Cavs game, you'd be just as happy to take the Cavs as the Lakers? Because the "numbers mean nothing?"

Odds are odds. They aren't guarantees, they just reflect probabilities. Obviously, Hollinger's probability formula isn't necessarily flawless, but for those who think he's one of the better publicly available basketball statisticians, it's an interesting thing to look at, how all the teams currently look in terms of playoff viability.

Sure, things could change a lot at the trade deadline but these reflect how the teams have been playing so far. Most teams won't make a major move. In fact, it's possible that not even one team in the playoff race will make a totally transforming move.