At what point will you believe this team is for real?

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The Blazers are .778 right now, but they will not finish the season .788. They're looking like a solid ~.600 team. 49 games. Of course, that is barring injury.

Most of their wins have been the result of very good shooting. Yes, then eeked out a win at home against Phoenix on a bad shooting night, and beat Boston even though they didn't shoot well. They are good enough to beat bad teams without shooting well, but not good enough to be good teams when their shot isn't falling.

The defensive stats are still piss poor.
 
At what point will I believe this fantasy is real?

Oh, pinch me so I know I'm not dreaming!
 
Sinobas said:
They are good enough to beat bad teams without shooting well, but not good enough to be good teams when their shot isn't falling.
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How many teams beat good teams when they shoot bad? Not many. As long as you beat the bad teams and win half the games agaisnt the good teams you'll get HCA.
 
I'm convinced. If we stay healthy we'll be a top 3 seed.
 
Nikolokolus said:
That all sounds very nice, but it's unfortunately just not quite true. Wesley is an "OK" defensive player who is pretty good at hitting three point shots. Saying he's a better version of Bruce Bowen does Bruce Bowen an incredible disservice.
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Bruce Bowen was one of the dirtiest players in the league. I don't' consider Wes to be dirty.
 
magnifier661 said:
BUMP!!!!!!

Anyone doubting us now?
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Doubting what, that the Blazers are a "good" team? I think it's starting to look that way, but we won't really know until we see how they respond to the difficult part of their schedule.

I won't take anything away from their start because even though it's been a "mostly" cream-puff schedule, they've played well on the road and showed a lot of poise and overcome some in-game adversity to pluck a few wins they could have easily lost in prior years, but I still need to see how they fare over these next 7 games or so.

Mainly, I want to see if they're going to keep tempting fate by falling behind by double digits early and then trying to make a comeback to seal a win. That strategy is not sustainable and isn't the calling card of a dominant team.
 
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Natebishop3 said:
Bruce Bowen was one of the dirtiest players in the league. I don't' consider Wes to be dirty.
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I didn't say he wasn't dirty, I'm just saying he was an amazing defensive player in his prime and I don't see Wesley being on that level (yet).
 
Nikolokolus said:
Doubting what, that the Blazers are a "good" team? I think it's starting to look that way, but we won't really know until we see how they respond to the difficult part of their schedule.

I won't take anything away from their start because even though it's been a "mostly" cream-puff schedule, they've played well on the road and showed a lot of poise and overcome some in-game adversity to pluck a few wins they could have easily lost in prior years, but I still need to see how they fare against over these next 7 games or so.

Mainly, I want to see if they're going to keep tempting fate by falling behind by double digits early and then trying to make a comeback to seal a win. That strategy is not sustainable and isn't the calling card of a dominant team.
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Yes believe they are good!

Last season Miami had 6 games when they were down by double digits and came back to win during their crazy win streak. Actually this "testing fate" is just exactly ways to make teams stronger, believe harder! The "never say die" attitude is what makes a good team separate from bad teams.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I didn't say he wasn't dirty, I'm just saying he was an amazing defensive player in his prime and I don't see Wesley being on that level (yet).
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But my contention is that his dirty play made him a superior defender. Maybe if Wes started doing all the dirty shit that Bowen did, he'd be a better defender?
 
Our Strength of Schedule is coming around already: as of this morning, it's slightly above average a 0.20, good for 14th in the league (average of course being 0.00). By comparison, Indiana's is 30th at -3.06.

Additionally, our Defensive Rating has climbed to 11th over all at 104.1, just below the NBA average of 104.0... remember after 5 games it was something like 23rd.
 
Our defense was dammed impressive last night in the 4th quarter. It was a fuggin block party. Lopez was in a zone.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
Our Strength of Schedule is coming around already: as of this morning, it's slightly above average a 0.20, good for 14th in the league (average of course being 0.00). By comparison, Indiana's is 30th at -3.06.

Additionally, our Defensive Rating has climbed to 11th over all at 104.1, just below the NBA average of 104.0... remember after 5 games it was something like 23rd.
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Denver winning sure helped.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
Our Strength of Schedule is coming around already: as of this morning, it's slightly above average a 0.20, good for 14th in the league (average of course being 0.00). By comparison, Indiana's is 30th at -3.06.

Additionally, our Defensive Rating has climbed to 11th over all at 104.1, just below the NBA average of 104.0... remember after 5 games it was something like 23rd.
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I still don't understand how Sagarin's rating system has us so much lower than Indiana.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
Our Strength of Schedule is coming around already: as of this morning, it's slightly above average a 0.20, good for 14th in the league (average of course being 0.00). By comparison, Indiana's is 30th at -3.06.

Additionally, our Defensive Rating has climbed to 11th over all at 104.1, just below the NBA average of 104.0... remember after 5 games it was something like 23rd.
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I see that Minnesotas SOS is not as strong as Portlands. Does the SOS change (negatively) with a loss? Because they've played a decent schedule too, not sure how they're worse (SOS wise).
 
Samuel said:
I still don't understand how Sagarin's rating system has us so much lower than Indiana.
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Points differential. By the end of the season points differential has proven (mainly) to be a better predictor of success than just about anything else - even better than wins and losses earlier in the season.
 
magnifier661 said:
Yes believe they are good!

Last season Miami had 6 games when they were down by double digits and came back to win during their crazy win streak. Actually this "testing fate" is just exactly ways to make teams stronger, believe harder! The "never say die" attitude is what makes a good team separate from bad teams.
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I don't think history would back up this claim.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Points differential. By the end of the season points differential has proven (mainly) to be a better predictor of success than just about anything else - even better than wins and losses earlier in the season.
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And we'll see where it is at the end of the season. The SRS (Simple Ratings System) from basketball-reference has us 4th at 6.13. That's still a damned good place to be.
 
I seriously don't give a shit about SOS and all this crap. Just keep winning games. It will all work itself out.
 
These last 2 games have been most impressive. These were tough situations against good teams and both were won with defense suprisingly.

I don't think the team is as good as its record, but this is the most exciting season since the Roy, Lamarcus, and (healthy) Oden team.

The west is so tough we could land anywhere from 3 to 7 in the seedings. I see a first round exit at 6 or 7. A first round win at 3 to 5. But not likely to make it past round 2. This team is awesome for sure, but there's no playoff experience. My concern is who is going to hit the clutch buckets in the 4th quarter playoff pressure? Lamarcus and Dame are capable but untested.

The X factor for me is Wes. If he can sustain his current all-star like play until and throughout the playoffs we are legitimate contenders to make the finals (but there's no beating Miami). That said, I think we are a year, and maybe one piece away from being legit.
 
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agree completely that they're not as good as their record. But it's a much better start than I figured. I hope they keep it up, even if it's a .500 record there rest of the way.

(46-36 would make the playoffs, imho)
 
To the original question of this thread, I'm starting to believe right now. But I guess the question is what does "believe" mean? If it's that the Blazers are a good team that will make the playoffs, put me down for that. If it's that the Blazers will advance in the playoffs, I'm hoping, but unsure. If it's that the Blazers are a title contender, I'm just not that kind of believer. For me to start believing we are contenders I need to see a victory at San Antonio, Miami or Indiana.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
That feels right; we grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat two games in a row (Chicago and Golden State), and the pythagorean wins/losses bears this out.
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That's true. We could have easily been 11-4 if we didn't play out of our minds in the second halves of those two games. The rest were pretty much ours. Although the Phoenix win was really close too.
 
magnifier661 said:
That's true. We could have easily been 11-4 if we didn't play out of our minds in the second halves of those two games. The rest were pretty much ours. Although the Phoenix win was really close too.
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Tied against Toronto at the end of regulation and beat Phoenix by a point where they had the last shot.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Tied against Toronto at the end of regulation and beat Phoenix by a point where they had the last shot.
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So we could be 9-6 right now, had luck/drive not gone our way. That is still a respectable record, 6th in the west right now.
 
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