Baffled and Confounded by the "Hickson Situation"

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I'm baffled, confounded and behooved by this whole rigismort.
 
magnifier661 said:
That's all fine and dandy; but Hickson was having the same troubles with other PFs out there. Look at MM's advanced stats against other PFs. I remembered his lunch being handed to him when he tried defending Griffin and Lee. Just because he plays center on Portland doesn't mean he doesn't have stats that support his ineffective defense on other PFs.
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First let me make clear that I'm not arguing that Hickson is a good defender. There, done.
Now, Griffin and Lee hand many defenders' asses to them - this isn't something unique to Hickson. LMA would get his ass handed to him if he were defending them. As for PER - well, you're barking up the wrong tree with that stat. But let's not forget that players generally get better over their first handful of seasons. It shouldn't be out of the question that Hickson has improved as a defender. Just because he was bad against PFs during his first two (?) years with CLE, and his year with probably the worst run franchise in the league, doesn't mean he's not getting better...and that he can't continue to get better. Hickson is 24 (23?). He's young. He should continue to get better. LMA? Not really developing - maybe refining, but most of his development window has come and gone.
 
blue9 said:
First let me make clear that I'm not arguing that Hickson is a good defender. There, done.
Now, Griffin and Lee hand many defenders' asses to them - this isn't something unique to Hickson. LMA would get his ass handed to him if he were defending them. As for PER - well, you're barking up the wrong tree with that stat. But let's not forget that players generally get better over their first handful of seasons. It shouldn't be out of the question that Hickson has improved as a defender. Just because he was bad against PFs during his first two (?) years with CLE, and his year with probably the worst run franchise in the league, doesn't mean he's not getting better...and that he can't continue to get better. Hickson is 24 (23?). He's young. He should continue to get better. LMA? Not really developing - maybe refining, but most of his development window has come and gone.
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Aldridge actually plays griffin well. He's really good at defending Duncan too
 
Mediocre Man said:
The guy got his lunch handed to him at the 4 well throughout his career

15.2 for and 17.4 against as a 4 in Cleveland in 09-10

14.5 for and 17.6 against as a 4 in Cleveland in 10-11

JJ is an average player on a good team who gives up way more than he brings.

JJ is a good player on a bad team who gives up a little less than he brings
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reminds me of Zbo
 
There's only two questions you need to ask, if the answer to both comes back "no" then you'll have your answer about what to do with him.

Is JJ the longterm answer at either starting center or starting power forward? Nope

Is JJ likely to accept less cash to be a backup player in a year where there's a lot of free agency money to be spent? Probably not.

So put aside stats and whether or not you like him or that his teammates like him; the economics, his natural position and lack of defensive ability/awareness make it nearly impossible that he'll be here next season. Maybe he completely strikes out in free agency and has to come back to Neil hat in hand, and takes a 3 year 4 million dollar deal to be a backup 4/5 but the odds of that happening are slim to none when they already have money committed to Freeland and Claver appears to have some promise as a backup 4.
 
Regardless who is our starting center, we need an over haul on defense. Boston is a perfect example of how we should be. They are old with a 17 year veteran PF as their center, yet they play aggressive team D away from the basket and get great weak side help. Lillard mentioned how physical Boston was on D, minimizing the need for someone back there blocking shots. (Paraphrasing from his In house media day interview)

Coaching is key. I went to the SA-Clipper game this week and was continually shaking my head at how well SA played with their second unit. (Let alone their 1st unit) The players on the floor were not that good, but they bought into the system. On any other team those guys would suck defensively.

I like Stotts a lot, but by next year he needs a new game plan. This starting team should be better on D. Can JJ buy into it? I don't know but I think the rest can. But yeah an upgrade is needed at center on the defensive end, AND we need a new commitment, AND a new game plan as well.
 
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Sure we all would like to have Hickson come off our bench. But not at the cost of pricing us out of the ability to upgrade our starting center position, which is priority one. More and more, teams are going to lose valuable players due to economics and the cap. Under the current CBA we are not immune to it. That's the way it is. Losing Hickson, if it results in signing or trading for a better starting center, is a form of one step back to take two steps forward. Same with if we could get a top 10 lotto pick this year (which is seeming less and less likely).
 
If you think Hickson's going to ease off after his contract year, then you should also think that decreasing the rebounding will give him more energy for non-stat pursuits like defense.

He may become a decent defender once he stops building his stats for the contract.
 
At least Hickson Trys & puts in an effort on defense.
Watch Aldridge - he hardly ever leaves his feet on defense, preferring to swipe at players down low like a guard. This negates his length advantage.

Hickson, at least, puts forth a respectable effort. Whereas Aldridge is atrocious mentally & physically on defense to go along with a girl scout type 'motor'.
 
I play pickup a lot with a guy who can score on just about anybody. He's an older guy so (predictably) he's referred to as "Old School" by everyone. He never misses at the three and he flips in the most ridiculous bank shots you ever saw.

But he's a total defensive sieve. I love the guy, so I'll pick him on my team, but my heart sinks because he makes everything so much harder for everyone else.

Now, with Old School it's partly that he doesn't try and partly that he's old (even more than me). Actually Hickson reminds me of the younger guys who are just chickens with their heads cut off. They ball-watch and have no concept of help defense or defensive spacing. Playing with people like that is just exhausting for everyone else. Hickson might actually be okay at defense if he was playing one-on-one, but in a team game you have to understand team defense, and that something players like Batum and Aldridge (and even slow-footed players like Larry Bird back in the day) understand while JJ seems just too spacey to get.

He's loveable because he hustles, rebounds and gets nice dunks, but our defense is atrocious with him in.
 
"Mark Twain quote: He uses statistics like a drunk uses lamp posts, for support not for illumination"
 
I made the case for Hickson on this board just a few days ago. I think the guy is great, and I hope we keep him. Double-double guys are not that common, and as you point out, he's young with many years ahead of him.
 
JJ might not have had very much value at trade trade line but I can pretty much guarantee he will have plenty of value come when he hits the free agent market. The Blazers are not going to be able to afford JJ. If JJ does not have big time value when he hits the free agent market putting up these kinds of numbers and outplaying centers\PF I don't even know if I want him on my team next year. That would pretty much mean there is something wrong with JJ's motor, maybe meaning his motor that we don't know it may only works when he's due for a big contract kinda like Bobby Simmons. Remember Simmons he was a real bad ass when he was going for a contract also. So don't get to attached.
 
Here's the Blazers' +/- stats for this season:

Code: 
Player 1 	Team 		+ 	- 	+/- 	Min 	 	G
J. Jeffries 	Trail Blazers 	642 	-636 	6 	326:19 		36
E. Maynor 	Trail Blazers 	20 	-16 	4 	14:49 		1
S. Pavlovic 	Trail Blazers 	846 	-846 	0 	420:39 		33
L. Babbitt 	Trail Blazers 	1,136 	-1,149 	-13 	570:38 		46
V. Claver 	Trail Blazers 	857 	-872 	-15 	436:50 		32
N. Smith 	Trail Blazers 	473 	-493 	-20 	255:27 		31
L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	4,138 	-4,166 	-28 	2045:04 	54
W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	3,430 	-3,469 	-39 	1675:58 	48
J. Freeland 	Trail Blazers 	512 	-564 	-52 	288:22 		32
D. Lillard 	Trail Blazers 	4,400 	-4,452 	-52 	2157:04 	56
R. Price 	Trail Blazers 	945 	-1,019 	-74 	509:50 		39
M. Leonard 	Trail Blazers 	1,209 	-1,318 	-109 	642:07 		44
W. Barton 	Trail Blazers 	949 	-1,079 	-130 	520:37 		48
N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	4,306 	-4,443 	-137 	2130:33 	55
[B]J. Hickson [/B]	Trail Blazers 	3,217 	-3,363 	-146 	1620:36 	55

I know I'm about the only one who doesn't think this stat is worthless, but it is interesting that Hickson plays the least of any starter but we've been outscored the most while he's been on the court.
 
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It would be interesting to see that normalized for minutes played.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Here's the Blazers' +/- stats for this season:

Code: 
Player 1 	Team 		+ 	- 	+/- 	Min 	 	G
J. Jeffries 	Trail Blazers 	642 	-636 	6 	326:19 		36
E. Maynor 	Trail Blazers 	20 	-16 	4 	14:49 		1
S. Pavlovic 	Trail Blazers 	846 	-846 	0 	420:39 		33
L. Babbitt 	Trail Blazers 	1,136 	-1,149 	-13 	570:38 		46
V. Claver 	Trail Blazers 	857 	-872 	-15 	436:50 		32
N. Smith 	Trail Blazers 	473 	-493 	-20 	255:27 		31
L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	4,138 	-4,166 	-28 	2045:04 	54
W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	3,430 	-3,469 	-39 	1675:58 	48
J. Freeland 	Trail Blazers 	512 	-564 	-52 	288:22 		32
D. Lillard 	Trail Blazers 	4,400 	-4,452 	-52 	2157:04 	56
R. Price 	Trail Blazers 	945 	-1,019 	-74 	509:50 		39
M. Leonard 	Trail Blazers 	1,209 	-1,318 	-109 	642:07 		44
W. Barton 	Trail Blazers 	949 	-1,079 	-130 	520:37 		48
N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	4,306 	-4,443 	-137 	2130:33 	55
[B]J. Hickson [/B]	Trail Blazers 	3,217 	-3,363 	-146 	1620:36 	55

I know I'm about the only one who doesn't think this stat is worthless, but it is interesting that Hickson plays the least of any starter but we've been outscored the most while he's been on the court.
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The total min. Lillard has played so far is absurd.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
He's loveable because he hustles, rebounds and gets nice dunks, but our defense is atrocious with him in.
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Gee, I watch most of the games and I don't see a big improvement in our defense when Hickson goes to the bench. I think our team defense is the problem, not Hickson.
 
Shooter said:
Gee, I watch most of the games and I don't see a big improvement in our defense when Hickson goes to the bench. I think our team defense is the problem, not Hickson.
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Really watch him sometime, he's a total ball-watcher on D. I get that you like him and his hustle -- it's the one thing that doesn't make me scream "bench him!" at the TV when he's in -- but he's a big problem defensively and not just because he's undersized to play center.
 
Shooter said:
Gee, I watch most of the games and I don't see a big improvement in our defense when Hickson goes to the bench. I think our team defense is the problem, not Hickson.
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[video=youtube;nEcjyzurazs]
 
Hickson isn't our answer at Center for the future and as much as half this board seems to love to bash LA, he isn't nearly as good as LA either. So the question that must be asked is how much is JJ worth as a backup 4/5 that is going to get 24m a game. Depending on the other moves that are made (I'd rank getting a starting C and a backup guard to run the offense and play alongside Lillard a higher priority then anything else) i'd offer Hickson a 4/16-20m offer and if he excepts it great, if not then work out a S&T.
 
The board loves to bash Aldridge because Aldridge rarely leaves his feet. He loves to watch effort players go after the ball, while he waits for it to bounce off them onto him. A good fan, he should bring a colorful towel onto the floor so he can wave it and whoop it up while others move around.

Aldridge is why I love Hickson. What a contrast. Aldridge is worried about being in position for things to happen to himself. Hickson is worried about getting into position to make things happen to help followers like Aldridge.

So Aldridge fans say he's always in perfect position and Hickson's not. Hickson is an active leader and Aldridge is a passive parasite.
 
jlprk said:
The board loves to bash Aldridge because Aldridge rarely leaves his feet. He loves to watch effort players go after the ball, while he waits for it to bounce off them onto him. A good fan, he should bring a colorful towel onto the floor so he can wave it and whoop it up while others move around.

Aldridge is why I love Hickson. What a contrast. Aldridge is worried about being in position for things to happen to himself. Hickson is worried about getting into position to make things happen to help followers like Aldridge.

So Aldridge fans say he's always in perfect position and Hickson's not. Hickson is an active leader and Aldridge is a passive parasite.
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That's fairly accurate. I think Aldridge is a little more involved than you give him credit for, but there's no doubt that Hickson is more aggressive about going after rebounds and loose balls. That's why I love the guy. I'm going to start focusing on him just to see if he's as bad defensively as everyone is saying, but I have my doubts.
 
Shooter said:
That's fairly accurate. I think Aldridge is a little more involved than you give him credit for, but there's no doubt that Hickson is more aggressive about going after rebounds and loose balls. That's why I love the guy. I'm going to start focusing on him just to see if he's as bad defensively as everyone is saying, but I have my doubts.
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Funny that you mention that. I have been focusing on Hickson a lot since the whole "he doesn't play a lick of defense" going on in this board. I will tell you, they were 100% accurate then. But in the last 5-6 games; I've seen Hickson really step up defensively. He seems to really get up on his man now.

There are those times were he is only watching the ball and not his man though. That's extremely frustrating to me. Almost as frustrating as watching Aldridge play average D and lackluster rebounding until the second half.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Really watch him sometime, he's a total ball-watcher on D. I get that you like him and his hustle -- it's the one thing that doesn't make me scream "bench him!" at the TV when he's in -- but he's a big problem defensively and not just because he's undersized to play center.
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I have. I have also watched LMA completely screw up rotations. The game against Boston, there were several times LMA was the lone guy playing "zone" defense while everyone else was D-ing up their man.
 
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