Batum, Bayless, Fernandez and Webster

[mook]

Figured it'd be interesting to compare our four young guys most people think of when "upside" and "tons of young talent" are concerned. I left out Oden because I just get too depressed when I think about him much. I also left out Roy and Aldridge, because it's a lot more clear where those guys will level off.

Figured I'd also throw in some numbers from past youngsters we used to put so much hope in at similar ages, just for the sake of comparison.

Stats are just for the year at the age mentioned.

PER..WinShr..age..mpg..years in NBA..player

18.8 ... 0.7 ... 21 ... 22 ... 2 ... Batum
15.8 ... 2.0 ... 21 ... 19 ... 2 ... Bayless
14.6 ... 1.7 ... 24 ... 23... 2 ... Fernandez
12.8 ... 3.1 ... 23 ... 28 ... 5 ... Webster
15.0 ... 5.3 ... 24 ... 27 ... 6 ... Outlaw (last season)
13.0 ... 0.6 ... 20 ... 24 ... 2 ... Telfair (by far his best before or since)
13.0 ... 3.2 ... 24 ... 27 ... 3 ... Jack
19.6 ... 7.1 ... 22 ... 38 ... 3 ... Randolph (back when he was on a rookie deal and was widely loved)

Do I have much of a point to make? Not really. Just thought it'd be interesting to compare past youngsters to the current crop and see how they measure up.

I guess what really leaps out is just how vastly superior our current stable is compared to scrubs like Telfair and Jack. You caught the odd glimpse that those two guys might one day be decent, but it involved a fair amount of wishful thinking. This stable is hovering right around "average NBA starter" right now, which is fantastic for guys who are so young.

I know Batum's numbers are really only based on 9 games, so it's pretty questionable to cite them. But I've watched those 9 games, and you know what? He didn't look to me like he was doing anything other-worldly. He looked a lot like he did in Europe in the summer. Maybe even a step slower and less involved. I really question if his PER "comes down to earth," or whether this is roughly what we can expect for the rest of the year.

Kind of interesting to think about how next year Batum will be the same age and level of experience Randolph was when he absolutely exploded on the league.

 

[jlprk]

I spent 11 minutes putting it into a chart, just like you should have.

PER..win shares..age..mpg..years..player

18.8 0.7 21 22 2 Batum
15.8 2.0 21 19 2 Bayless
14.6 1.7 24 ?? 2 Fernandez
12.8 3.1 23 28 5 Webster
15.0 5.3 24 27 6 Outlaw
13.0 0.6 20 24 2 Telfair
13.0 3.2 24 27 3 Jack
19.6 7.1 22 38 3 Randolph

 

[jlprk]

Final version. Then I can actually analyze the numbers.

PER..win shares..age..mpg..years..player

18.8 0.7 21 22 2 Batum
15.8 2.0 21 19 2 Bayless
14.6 1.7 24 ?? 2 Fernandez
12.8 3.1 23 28 5 Webster
15.0 5.3 24 27 6 Outlaw (last season)
13.0 0.6 20 24 2 Telfair (by far his best before or since)
13.0 3.2 24 27 3 Jack
19.6 7.1 22 38 3 Randolph (back when he was on a rookie deal and was widely loved)

 

[andalusian]

Win-share accumulates - it makes very little sense to compare it without knowing the minutes played. A better comparison would be Win-share per minute.

 

[jlprk]

I guess what really leaps out is just how vastly superior our current stable is compared to scrubs like Telfair and Jack.

Playing on a winning team increases Win Shares and PER. If today's young players had been on Telfair's team, their stats would have been lower, too. The 2 most comparable players on the chart are Outlaw and Webster, with Outlaw definitely looking better.

 

[julius]

Figured it'd be interesting to compare our four young guys most people think of when "upside" and "tons of young talent" are concerned. I left out Oden because I just get too depressed when I think about him much. I also left out Roy and Aldridge, because it's a lot more clear where those guys will level off.

Figured I'd also throw in some numbers from past youngsters we used to put so much hope in at similar ages, just for the sake of comparison.

Stats are just for the year at the age mentioned.

Batum
Age: 21
PER: 18.8
Years in league: 2
Win Shares: .7
MPG: 22

Bayless
Age: 21
PER: 15.8
Years in league: 2
Win Shares: 2
MPG: 19

Fernandez
Age: 24
PER: 14.6
Years in league: 2
Win Shares: 1.7
MPG:

Webster
Age: 23
PER: 12.8
Years in league: 5
Win Shares: 3.1
MPG: 28

What's interesting is all of these guys (cept Webster) have a better PER then Butler does this year.

 

[Minstrel]

Win-share accumulates - it makes very little sense to compare it without knowing the minutes played. A better comparison would be Win-share per minute.

That just makes it another rate stat. A raw win share comparison factors in the virtues of actually playing more minutes. abeing able to stay on the floor is an important, valuable thing.

It's important to have both rate stats and cumulative stats.

 

[andalusian]

That just makes it another rate stat. A raw win share comparison factors in the virtues of actually playing more minutes. abeing able to stay on the floor is an important, valuable thing.

It's important to have both rate stats and cumulative stats.

It makes absolutely no sense to compare Batum's 7 games win-share to an entire year of ZBo at the same age. Sure - accumulative stats make sense when you compare single season performance of players - but there is nothing to be learned from them without the mention of minutes when you basically do a comparative analysis at a young age, which, by definition, seems to be more about potential.

 

[Minstrel]

It makes absolutely no sense to compare Batum's 7 games win-share to an entire year of ZBo at the same age. Sure - accumulative stats make sense when you compare single season performance of players

For a random number of games, like Batum's, I agree. I was just speaking generally, as you seemed to be (to me, anyway). Comparing win scores for players with different MPG has plenty of value...but it should be over a similar number of games and a significant sample. Everything shouldn't be normalized to minutes.

 

[jlprk]

I was just speaking generally

Andalusian is talking about this group of players, not generally. Minutes per game is how to compare players who don't get many minutes.

 

[Minstrel]

Andalusian is talking about this group of players, not generally.

Apparently. It seemed to me a general comment about win shares and minutes.

 

[hasoos]

Playing on a winning team increases Win Shares and PER. If today's young players had been on Telfair's team, their stats would have been lower, too. The 2 most comparable players on the chart are Outlaw and Webster, with Outlaw definitely looking better.

At the same time, being superior players increases all of those numbers you mention above. Put it this way. I don't think it is an accident we are winning more games.

 

[mook]

I spent 11 minutes putting it into a chart, just like you should have.

PER..win shares..age..mpg..years..player

18.8 0.7 21 22 2 Batum
15.8 2.0 21 19 2 Bayless
14.6 1.7 24 ?? 2 Fernandez
12.8 3.1 23 28 5 Webster
15.0 5.3 24 27 6 Outlaw
13.0 0.6 20 24 2 Telfair
13.0 3.2 24 27 3 Jack
19.6 7.1 22 38 3 Randolph

Thanks. I'm going to put that at the top so people don't have to read my clunky version.

 

[hasoos]

What's interesting is all of these guys (cept Webster) have a better PER then Butler does this year.

Well I know a lot of folks will disagree with me, but I don't think PERS is all that. For instance, Sergio Rodriguez has a higher PERS than Derek Rose. But would you take him over Derek Rose on your team?

 

[axs88]

Well I know a lot of folks will disagree with me, but I don't think PERS is all that. For instance, Sergio Rodriguez has a higher PERS than Derek Rose. But would you take him over Derek Rose on your team?

What the fuck is 'PERS'?

 

[mook]

Playing on a winning team increases Win Shares and PER. If today's young players had been on Telfair's team, their stats would have been lower, too.

Win Share, yes.

PER? I'm not so sure. Randolph put up a really nice PER on a 41 win team.

Seems to me that if you have lousy teammates, you'd have more rebounding and scoring and ball handling opportunities, which if you are halfway decent could lead to a better PER. Provided your FG% doesn't take too much of a hit from being better defended.

Anyway, I probably should've added Qyntel Woods, since he was also once a "promising young stud" for this team. *shudder* In his rookie year he had a PER of 11.2 and a WS of .2. It's amazing to me now how giddy we all were over the guy back then.

John Nash had pretty thoroughly beaten down our expectations, I guess. On the current roster Woods would likely be sitting behind Dante Cunningham.

 

[maxiep]

What the fuck is 'PERS'?

It's what Measure 66 and 67 is funding.

 

[andalusian]

Apparently. It seemed to me a general comment about win shares and minutes.

No. It was in the context of the thread.

 

[hasoos]

What the fuck is 'PERS'?

It's something I formed a bad habit of calling the PER stat.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Well I know a lot of folks will disagree with me, but I don't think PERS is all that. For instance, Sergio Rodriguez has a higher PERS than Derek Rose. But would you take him over Derek Rose on your team?

PER is good and bad. You have to use it in the proper context. Putting up a high PER in an occasional 6 or 7 minutes of meaningless garbage time against the other team's third stringers isn't the same as posting the same PER when starting and playing 36 MPG against the best players in the league.

All it really proves is the first player is the king of garbage time (our 12th man is better than your 12th man, see Randolph, Shavlik 2008-09 PER = 19.4).

It's not JUST about sample size, it's also about the role on the team and the level of competition during the minutes played. Starters need to produce on a nightly basis against the other team's best players. End of bench guys get to pad their stats in meanigless minutes against the other team's scrubs who are more interested in padding their own stats than actually playing defense.

In a nutshell, PER is most useful for comparing players who play the same position and similar minutes.

BNM

 

[hasoos]

PER is good and bad. You have to use it in the proper context. Putting up a high PER in an occasional 6 or 7 minutes of meaningless garbage time against the other team's third stringers isn't the same as posting the same PER when starting and playing 36 MPG against the best players in the league.

All it really proves is the first player is the king of garbage time (our 12th man is better than your 12th man, see Randolph, Shavlik 2008-09 PER = 19.4).

It's not JUST about sample size, it's also about the role on the team and the level of competition during the minutes played. Starters need to produce on a nightly basis against the other team's best players. End of bench guys get to pad their stats in meanigless minutes against the other team's scrubs who are more interested in padding their own stats than actually playing defense.

In a nutshell, PER is most useful for comparing players who play the same position and similar minutes.

BNM

Surely. It is also about sample size. But PER does not take into the effect all the bullshit Washington has had going on this season. There is a lot of bad ju ju there, and some of the players just need out and a fresh start to get their motor running. You can throw out any stats you want. Caron Butler was rookie of the year when he entered the league, and made the all star team years later. Those are the marks of a guy who plays consistently well from year to year. They don't look at PER to determine those accolades. They watch the games, and use their brains.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Surely. It is also about sample size. But PER does not take into the effect all the bullshit Washington has had going on this season. There is a lot of bad ju ju there, and some of the players just need out and a fresh start to get their motor running. You can throw out any stats you want. Caron Butler was rookie of the year when he entered the league, and made the all star team years later. Those are the marks of a guy who plays consistently well from year to year. They don't look at PER to determine those accolades. They watch the games, and use their brains.

Caron Butler did not win Rookie of the Year. He came in 3rd in the voting behind Amare and Yao Ming. He did, rightfully, make 1st team all rookie.

You give too much credit to those who vote on things like ROY and all-star appearances. Most don't look at PER. Most aren't that sophisticated. Many voters simply look at scoring stats - if a guy scores a lot, he must be good, right?. This is why a guy like Adam Morrison made 2nd team all rookie in spite of being a very shitty player.

In Butler's case, you simply need a bigger sample size. Look at what he's done in recent years, his age, health status and judge him based on the big picture, not just the current trainwreck in DC.

BNM