Batum ready to replace Roy at 2 guard

[RoyToy]

Is having his salary on the books for ZERO production a better value?

His salary wouldn't be on the books. It'd only be on Paul Allen's never-ending checkbook. That's it. It wouldn't affect the team at all and their ability to improve the team with a lower payroll by staying out of the luxury tax.

 

[RR7]

His never ending checkbook? If it was still the SPAM never ending checkbook, then he'd pay the 8 million in LT payment, and keep Roy, since he'll be paying him one way or another.

 

[Draco]

Why do posters keep brining this up as if it means ANYTHING.

Ever heard of sunk costs?

Roy gets his MAX money NO MATTER WHAT!

Paul Allen pays the check if he is in Portland or not.

The luxury tax matters and is important. Saying Roy "isn't worth" or "won't earn" his MAX deal is just nothing more than bitchin'.

You can't complain away the debt. You can't whine away the committment. You can't argue "fairness" or "worth" in an attempt to wash away the contract. And, AGAIN, Amesty does not eliminate the Blazers writing big checks to Roy.

Not true. Paul Allen does not have to pay all of Roy's contract. If Roy is an amensty cut the team submitting a blind bid will pay that portion of his contract. It could be a very significant portion, I could potentially see a team putting in 4 years $25 million for Roy. So instead of Paul Allen having to pay the $68 million remaining he would only have to pay $43 million. This excludes luxury tax savings, and only considers your so called "sunk costs"

 

[Blazinaway]

Stop right there.

Jeez, can't these sports writers get anything right.

Roy has a guaranteed contract. Paul Allen will pay $15 mil for Roy this season regardless.

Saying "$15mil is a pretty penny....." is entirely beside the point.

PA will pay 15 mil MINUS whatever another team signs Roy for, if that's 4-5 mil that's not too bad.

what's really crazy is a guy whose knees are so bad can possibly make so much money for FOUR more years - only in the NBA where "amazing" happens...lol

 

[Masbee]

Not true. Paul Allen does not have to pay all of Roy's contract. If Roy is an amensty cut the team submitting a blind bid will pay that portion of his contract. It could be a very significant portion, I could potentially see a team putting in 4 years $25 million for Roy. So instead of Paul Allen having to pay the $68 million remaining he would only have to pay $43 million. This excludes luxury tax savings, and only considers your so called "sunk costs"

hmmm. That is a catch-22 though, isn't it.

If the Blazers amnesty Roy so fast it creates a vortex, what makes you think some team is going to invest $25 mil in him?

I find that unlikely. Team's would be cautious making a big, long investment in Roy (no amnesty allowed on their committment and no insurance is available on Roy - you knew that, right?), if his team dumps the face of the franchise at the earliest possible opportunity.

If you had room to pay $25mil for a guard, wouldn't you spend it on Crawford? I would. Dude's a healthy, insurable, baller.

If Canzano rumor is true (I doubt), we may find out soon enough.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Not true. Paul Allen does not have to pay all of Roy's contract. If Roy is an amensty cut the team submitting a blind bid will pay that portion of his contract. It could be a very significant portion, I could potentially see a team putting in 4 years $25 million for Roy. So instead of Paul Allen having to pay the $68 million remaining he would only have to pay $43 million. This excludes luxury tax savings, and only considers your so called "sunk costs"

Right, it could potentially save PA more than 20 million this year alone. Assuming we go under the tax threshold

 

[Blazinaway]

hmmm. That is a catch-22 though, isn't it.

If the Blazers amnesty Roy so fast it creates a vortex, what makes you think some team is going to invest $25 mil in him?

I find that unlikely. Team's would be cautious making a big, long investment in Roy (no amnesty allowed on their committment and no insurance is available on Roy - you knew that, right?), if his team dumps the face of the franchise at the earliest possible opportunity.

If you had room to pay $25mil for a guard, wouldn't you spend it on Crawford? I would. Dude's a healthy, insurable, baller.

If Canzano rumor is true (I doubt), we may find out soon enough.

first of all Crawfor will get a lot more than that and Roy at 4 mil per will IMO will look like a good gamble to at least 2 or 3 teams IMO

 

[RR7]

save him more than 20 million? Roughly 8-10 in luxury tax payments. So by more than 20 this year, you think someone's bidding 10-12 million for Roy?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Why do posters keep brining this up as if it means ANYTHING.

Ever heard of sunk costs?

Roy gets his MAX money NO MATTER WHAT!

Paul Allen pays the check if he is in Portland or not.

The luxury tax matters and is important. Saying Roy "isn't worth" or "won't earn" his MAX deal is just nothing more than bitchin'.
You can't complain away the debt. You can't whine away the committment. You can't argue "fairness" or "worth" in an attempt to wash away the contract. And, AGAIN, Amesty does not eliminate the Blazers writing big checks to Roy.

Awesome post.

 

[Mediocre Man]

save him more than 20 million? Roughly 8-10 in luxury tax payments. So by more than 20 this year, you think someone's bidding 10-12 million for Roy?

If we extend Oden, won't that push us about double Roy's salary over the tax threshold? I have us at about 85 million with Oden QO.

 

[RR7]

I think we are closer to 80 right now. Of course, cutting Roy, he gets that full savings of the roughly 8-10 in LT plus 6(seems unlikely) in waiver signing by keeping the roster as is. Cutting him so we can then spend 5 million of the MLE takes away any real savings from Roy getting signed elsewhere.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think we are closer to 80 right now. Of course, cutting Roy, he gets that full savings of the roughly 8-10 in LT plus 6(seems unlikely) in waiver signing by keeping the roster as is. Cutting him so we can then spend 5 million of the MLE takes away any real savings from Roy getting signed elsewhere.

So let me get this straight.

I thought by waiving Roy, the Blazers would save his luxury tax $1 for $1 hit, which would be 15+ million. (maybe more because of the new CBA. I know Durant's salary went up) Then a team that signed Roy would save the Blazers another 5-6 million. Isn't that right?

 

[RR7]

storyteller has us at 80 million. That includes Oden at the QO. It also includes holds of Freeland, Claver and Mills. All 3 under contract outside of US. That cuts roughly 3 million off of that total. So looking at 77. So that's a little under 7 in LT payment. So he saves that 7, and then maybe 5 of someone bidding on him.

 

[RR7]

So let me get this straight.

I thought by waiving Roy, the Blazers would save his luxury tax $1 for $1 hit, which would be 15+ million. (maybe more because of the new CBA. I know Durant's salary went up) Then a team that signed Roy would save the Blazers another 5-6 million. Isn't that right?

His LT hit isn't 15 million. The LT is off of the total team salary. So at 80 million, it's 10 million in LT.

 

[Denny Crane]

No one ever said Roy won't continue to get paid

But having his salary on the books for the average production he's going to give you is TERRIBLE value. Only a fool would allow that to happen. It cripples your payroll and what you can try and do to improve your team. It's stupid money. And paying a higher luxury tax because of his contract? Even more stupid. It makes no sense to keep him around at this point.

Blazers fans are the pet owner that won't put their dog to sleep even though it's blind, deaf and has diabetes. Learn to know when to call it quits.

Paying him after using the amnesty clause on him and then paying someone else (like Wade) the same money ($15M) would be like paying $30M for Wade.

Or like a $1 for $1 tax. That's on top of any luxury tax.

It's REALLY expensive to cut him unless they (just about) don't want to sign anyone at all.

 

[Draco]

hmmm. That is a catch-22 though, isn't it.

If the Blazers amnesty Roy so fast it creates a vortex, what makes you think some team is going to invest $25 mil in him?

I find that unlikely. Team's would be cautious making a big, long investment in Roy (no amnesty allowed on their committment and no insurance is available on Roy - you knew that, right?), if his team dumps the face of the franchise at the earliest possible opportunity.

I don’t understand how this would be a catch-22 or a vortex…

If you cut Roy now teams believe he still has potential for an NBA role, he had a great game 4 in the playoffs. But we saw day in and day out he couldn’t keep up with the grind of the NBA season. He sucked for the majority of the playoffs. Teams blew $25 million deals last off-season on guys like Drew Gooden, Darko Millicic and Travis Outlaw. I think a team would be willing to risk a similar amount of money on Roy today.

But if we hold on to him for a faster paced lockout year with back-to-back-to-backs and as he struggles, the bid for his contract could be far lower to virtually non-existent.

Think of this situation from another perspective, if your saying teams would be hesitant to give Brandon $25 million today, why are we even discussing the idea of keeping him at $68 million today?

 

[PapaG]

I don’t understand how this would be a catch-22 or a vortex…

If you cut Roy now teams believe he still has potential for an NBA role, he had a great game 4 in the playoffs. But we saw day in and day out he couldn’t keep up with the grind of the NBA season. He sucked for the majority of the playoffs. Teams blew $25 million deals last off-season on guys like Drew Gooden, Darko Millicic and Travis Outlaw. I think a team would be willing to risk a similar amount of money on Roy today.

But if we hold on to him for a faster paced lockout year with back-to-back-to-backs and as he struggles, the bid for his contract could be far lower to virtually non-existent.

Why does Roy care what he's getting paid? He's already on a max contract. What I don't know is if there is a given amount of money that a team claiming him needs to spend on his contract. Couldn't a team put in a claim for him, and then pay him the vet minimum? Take Dallas, or Miami, or even Chicago. What would stop any of those teams from making a claim on Roy, and then selling him the idea of Paul Allen paying for his max contract, while taking the vet minimum to give those teams that much less to pay?

Or, if nobody claims Roy, then what is stopping an elite team from adding Brandon Roy at practically zero cost? I think the idea of cutting Roy before even seeing him at camp is extremely stupid, but then again, nothing the Vulcans have done for years have made much sense.

Think of this situation from another perspective, if your saying teams would be hesitant to give Brandon $25 million today, why are we even discussing the idea of keeping him at $68 million today?

Because that's not the cap/tax hit for this year. Reading above, waiving Roy and then using the full MLE on some players is basically $5 million in real-time savings. Unless the Blazers can find some offense off the bench with that MLE, the team gets worse, IMO. Either way, the Roy situation is going to make some fans happy, and other fans irate. I don't think there is any obvious 'correct' decision to make, so we're all left to our opinions.

 

[Draco]

Why does Roy care what he's getting paid? He's already on a max contract. What I don't know is if there is a given amount of money that a team claiming him needs to spend on his contract. Couldn't a team put in a claim for him, and then pay him the vet minimum? Take Dallas, or Miami, or even Chicago. What would stop any of those teams from making a claim on Roy, and then selling him the idea of Paul Allen paying for his max contract, while taking the vet minimum to give those teams that much less to pay?

Or, if nobody claims Roy, then what is stopping an elite team from adding Brandon Roy at practically zero cost? I think the idea of cutting Roy before even seeing him at camp is extremely stupid, but then again, nothing the Vulcans have done for years have made much sense.

I don't think you understand the concept of a blind bid by teams under the salary cap.

 

[PapaG]

I don't think you understand the concept of a blind bid by teams under the salary cap.

What if nobody bids on him? Or what if the blind bid amounts to the vet minimum? I guess I just don't see a long list of teams under the cap that would be willing to offer the MLE for Roy, or anything resembling a long-term contract. If he's as washed up as some people seem to think, why would anybody commit to him for anything more the a vet minimum contract?

 

[RoyToy]

Paying him after using the amnesty clause on him and then paying someone else (like Wade) the same money ($15M) would be like paying $30M for Wade.

Or like a $1 for $1 tax. That's on top of any luxury tax.

It's REALLY expensive to cut him unless they (just about) don't want to sign anyone at all.

So wouldn't keeping Roy mean Roy's costing the Blazers $30M with the luxury tax and everything included?

$30M for damaged goods. Heh. And I doubt the Blazers find another player to spend $15M on. Even in your scenario though, I'd rather spend $30M on the hypothetical "true" franchise player than damaged goods.

 

[Masbee]

Right, it could potentially save PA more than 20 million this year alone. Assuming we go under the tax threshold

No way the savings would be $20mil.

 

[Denny Crane]

So wouldn't keeping Roy mean Roy's costing the Blazers $30M with the luxury tax and everything included?

$30M for damaged goods. Heh. And I doubt the Blazers find another player to spend $15M on. Even in your scenario though, I'd rather spend $30M on the hypothetical "true" franchise player than damaged goods.

Think $45M, because that's the math

 

[Masbee]

So wouldn't keeping Roy mean Roy's costing the Blazers $30M with the luxury tax and everything included?

$30M for damaged goods. Heh. And I doubt the Blazers find another player to spend $15M on. Even in your scenario though, I'd rather spend $30M on the hypothetical "true" franchise player than damaged goods.

Math bad.

Try again.

 

[RoyToy]

Think $45M, because that's the math

Show me

 

[Masbee]

I don’t understand how this would be a catch-22 or a vortex…

We are talking a franchise player, cornerstone, dude who "saved" Blazer basketball as it came out of arena bankruptcy and "broken models".

If the Blazers can't severe ties with the franchise player fast enough, that sends the message to bidding teams that Roy - despite what he may say - is likely DONE as any kind of NBA caliber player.

Thus, your and others argument that teams will blind bid $25 mil for Roy are illogical.

Sure, there could be some crazy owner or GM that would do something stupid. But, relying on stupid is not a smart strategy. If the Blazers want to cut Roy, they should assume he gets picked up for the minimum and make their decision accordingly.

 

[Denny Crane]

Show me

Roy $15M + $15M tax + $15M new player

If someone signs Roy for $5M, it'd still cost $40M to add a $15M player (or players that add up to $15M).

If they just cut Roy, they save $30M, which is appealing to an owner who wants to save that kind of money.

 

[RoyToy]

Roy $15M + $15M tax + $15M new player

If someone signs Roy for $5M, it'd still cost $40M to add a $15M player (or players that add up to $15M).

If they just cut Roy, they save $30M, which is appealing to an owner who wants to save that kind of money.

I'm only gong by what's on the payroll and counts against the cap. Anything off the books is different when it comes to having the space to build the team up. Once Roy gets cut he wouldn't count against the cap, and the Blazers would be under the luxury tax. Adding Roy's off the books salary to another players salary that is on the books is two different things.

Keeping Roy - $15M salary, $15M luxury tax = $30M

Cut Roy - Off the books and no luxury tax. If they did add another $15M player(which is pretty unlikely) he'd be a $30M player because of the luxury tax(in theory). You don't add it to Roy's contract, not too mention you were probably able to attain that player because you cut Roy.

Is that wrong?

Keeping Roy's salary on the books just doesn't make sense. It's a crippling contract now and in the future.

 

[RR7]

that math is way off. Roy has a 15m salary. He does not currently equal 15 in LT payments. And we have no ability whatsoever to add a 15m player. I don't understand this at all.

 

[THE HCP]

I was never good at math! I'm so confused right now!

 

[Denny Crane]

that math is way off. Roy has a 15m salary. He does not currently equal 15 in LT payments. And we have no ability whatsoever to add a 15m player. I don't understand this at all.

With Oden's cap hold, the Blazers are ~$19M into the LT. If they simply cut Roy, they'll be $4M into the LT, saving $15M in luxury tax and $15M for his salary.

If Oden signs for the QO, you'll still be $14.5M into the LT with Roy. I assume you'll want to sign your draft picks.