Batum trade revisited

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Natebishop3 said:
Yes, we made the trade for a shooting guard and power forward and then WENT OUT AND SIGNED A REPLACEMENT SMALL FORWARD.
Click to expand...

And AGAIN we could've moved Nic over to SG... The question is:

Do we think we should've done the trade?

My answer is no.
 
dviss1 said:
And AGAIN we could've moved Nic over to SG... The question is:

Do we think we should've done the trade?

My answer is no.
Click to expand...

Let's take a look at that genius idea -

Nic has been primarily playing shooting guard this season for Charlotte. Here are his numbers compared to CJ

http://bkref.com/tiny/076cT

CJ - 20.9 ppg, 4.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals
Nic - 14.9 ppg, 5.8 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals

Lets look at the shooting percentages:

CJ - 44.8% FG, 42% from three, and a TS% of 54.5%
Nic - 42.6% FG, 34.8% from three, and a TS% of 54.6%

PER:

CJ - 17.7
Nic - 15.7
 
dviss1 said:
And AGAIN we could've moved Nic over to SG... The question is:

Do we think we should've done the trade?

My answer is no.
Click to expand...

And again....then you have to bring CJ into the equation. This was a year about player development. And we still could end up with a higher seed than the year before.

My answer is yes.
 
Natebishop3 said:
We had not signed Aminu yet, so how you could not include him is ridiculous. How do you know he would have signed here if we didn't have a vacancy at the starting small forward spot?
Click to expand...

It's not ridiculous at all. And you seem to be getting pretty worked up about this. Not sure why. The bottom line is regardless of CJ's improvement. I think we could have the exact same team now only with Batum instead of Vonleh/Henderson. I fully believe with 30+ mins off the bench CJ would be up for 2 awards instead of one.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Let's take a look at that genius idea -

Nic has been primarily playing shooting guard this season for Charlotte. Here are his numbers compared to CJ

http://bkref.com/tiny/076cT

CJ - 20.9 ppg, 4.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals
Nic - 14.9 ppg, 5.8 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals

Lets look at the shooting percentages:

CJ - 44.8% FG, 42% from three, and a TS% of 54.5%
Nic - 42.6% FG, 34.8% from three, and a TS% of 54.6%

PER:

CJ - 17.7
Nic - 15.7
Click to expand...

Jesus dude..
 
I'm not really sure how this is even still a debate. Batum is incredibly overrated. Soft, shoots low percentages, turns the ball over. The Blazers are much better off using their resources elsewhere.
 
dviss1 said:
CJ comes off the bench for 30+ mins per game and wins 2 awards instead of 1.
Click to expand...

Does he though? Or was he jump started with confidence by being a starter? I think he would have been a contender for 6th man no doubt. But would he be as good as he is now? Im not so sure. He has built his skills going up against the best(starters) would he have developed as quick if going against opponents benches primarily?
 
Strenuus said:
Or we don't know what we have in CJ and he doesn't blossom like he does.

I can see both sides.
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No that's not the other side at all. That's a false choice. You're trying to argue that CJ wouldn't flourish with 30+ MPG and tell the honest truth:

You don't really buy that do you?
 
dviss1 said:
CJ comes off the bench for 30+ mins per game and wins 2 awards instead of 1.
Click to expand...

You seem to be using a lot of hypotheticals. Well if this happened, then this would happen and then this would happen and then this could happen.

Here are the facts -

We traded Batum for Henderson and Vonleh, and then we went out and used some of our cap space to sign Batum's replacement. That's a fact. Those things happened.

Batum went to Charlotte and was made the starting shooting guard. Again, that's a fact.

CJ was made the starting shooting guard and is the front runner for MIP. Fact.

You can speculate all you want about how things could have played out, but on balance we're looking at what did happen to evaluate the success or failure of this trade. What DID happen is CJ is having an excellent season as the starting shooting guard. What DID happen is Aminu is playing solidly as our starting small forward. What DID happen is Henderson has been a huge part of our bench unit. What DID happen is we acquired a very young power forward to be our PFOTF. Those things DID happen.

You can speculate all you want about whether Aminu would have signed here, or CJ could have come off the bench and still played as well, or whether Batum would have signed an extension here. Those things didn't happen.
 
I suspect that Neil had a really good idea that Aminu would be coming in. I also suspect he didn't know for sure what Lamarcus would do.

We as fans have the benefit of picking an choosing how we evaluate, in order to suit the point we are trying to make. GM's don't have that luxury so much every move is intertwined in the big picture. Let's pretend draft day goes the way it did, then We go into free agency but things go a little different after Aminu agrees to sign at midnight.

Lamarcus chooses to stay, because of that we re-up Robin and also Wesley. We have already replaced Batum with Aminu and with that trade with Charlotte we have a 1a 1b at the 2 (CJ hasn't emerged yet, but still looks like Lillard light) we have this lineup....

PG Lillard/McCollum/Frazier
SG Matthews/Henderson/Pat
SF Aminu/Crabbe
PF Aldridge/Leonard/Vonleh
C Lopez/Plumlee/Kaman

Then we go ahead and make the deal for Harkless to fill out the roster.... That is a really freaking good team, even if Wesley weren't able to go which was debatable at the time.... But Obviously Neil also made moves that left us covered in the event that Lamarcus did leave.
 
Orion Bailey said:
Does he though? Or was he jump started with confidence by being a starter? I think he would have been a contender for 6th man no doubt. But would he be as good as he is now? Im not so sure. He has built his skills going up against the best(starters) would he have developed as quick if going against opponents benches primarily?
Click to expand...

C'mon now... Listen to your own argument.

With 30+ per you're going up against multiple defenders. One could even argue that's a better way to develop.
 
Natebishop3 said:
You seem to be using a lot of hypotheticals. Well if this happened, then this would happen and then this would happen and then this could happen.

Here are the facts -

We traded Batum for Henderson and Vonleh, and then we went out and used some of our cap space to sign Batum's replacement. That's a fact. Those things happened.

Batum went to Charlotte and was made the starting shooting guard. Again, that's a fact.

CJ was made the starting shooting guard and is the front runner for MIP. Fact.

You can speculate all you want about how things could have played out, but on balance we're looking at what did happen to evaluate the success or failure of this trade. What DID happen is CJ is having an excellent season as the starting shooting guard. What DID happen is Aminu is playing solidly as our starting small forward. What DID happen is Henderson has been a huge part of our bench unit. What DID happen is we acquired a very young power forward to be our PFOTF. Those things DID happen.

You can speculate all you want about whether Aminu would have signed here, or CJ could have come off the bench and still played as well, or whether Batum would have signed an extension here. Those things didn't happen.
Click to expand...

What's silly about another one of your long drawn-out posts is it's all speculation as to what would have happened if the trade had not gone down.
 
dviss1 said:
No that's not the other side at all. That's a false choice. You're trying to argue that CJ wouldn't flourish with 30+ MPG and tell the honest truth:

You don't really buy that do you?
Click to expand...

How can I buy a hypothetical that someone coming off the bench is going to produce the same as a starter?

How do you know he gets 30 minutes? What if he gets 25, 20...

A hypothetical arbitrary numbers doesn't equal truth.

Remember, we only got a 2 game taste of CJ... that doesn't automatically put him up at 30+ minutes off the bench....

But that's just hypothetical from me, because we don't know either way.
 
Schilly said:
I suspect that Neil had a really good idea that Aminu would be coming in. I also suspect he didn't know for sure what Lamarcus would do.

We as fans have the benefit of picking an choosing how we evaluate, in order to suit the point we are trying to make. GM's don't have that luxury so much every move is intertwined in the big picture. Let's pretend draft day goes the way it did, then We go into free agency but things go a little different after Aminu agrees to sign at midnight.

Lamarcus chooses to stay, because of that we re-up Robin and also Wesley. We have already replaced Batum with Aminu and with that trade with Charlotte we have a 1a 1b at the 2 (CJ hasn't emerged yet, but still looks like Lillard light) we have this lineup....

PG Lillard/McCollum/Frazier
SG Matthews/Henderson/Pat
SF Aminu/Crabbe
PF Aldridge/Leonard/Vonleh
C Lopez/Plumlee/Kaman

Then we go ahead and make the deal for Harkless to fill out the roster.... That is a really freaking good team, even if Wesley weren't able to go which was debatable at the time.... But Obviously Neil also made moves that left us covered in the event that Lamarcus did leave.
Click to expand...

Did the Plumlee trade happen yet? I think we did that after TT decided to bolt.
 
Strenuus said:
How can I buy a hypothetical that someone coming off the bench is going to produce the same as a starter?

How do you know he gets 30 minutes? What if he gets 25, 20...

A hypothetical arbitrary numbers doesn't equal truth.

Remember, we only got a 2 game taste of CJ... that doesn't automatically put him up at 30+ minutes off the bench....

But that's just hypothetical from me, because we don't know either way.
Click to expand...

I never said he would produce the same as a starter. I said he would be up for two Awards. I fully believe this.
 
dviss1 said:
I never said he would produce the same as a starter. I said he would be up for two Awards. I fully believe this.
Click to expand...

And if we would have drafted Chris Paul, we still would have been bad enough to draft Roy and we still would have been bad enough to draft Durant and this team would have won multiple championships and Roy's knees would have stayed healthy and we would have won 80 games, blah blah blah.
 
It's all about upside.

Vonleh has a build that you rarely see. He plays much bigger than his 6'9" height. His base is already strong enough to check most centers - and he's only 20.

His stats are fugly but he has shown a defensive awareness that should project that he will be very good defensive pf/c.

Batum's PER36 numbers are pretty much the same with his USG% at a career high.
 
Strenuus said:
To get those awards, he'd have to put up these numbers.
Click to expand...

No he wouldn't. How much did the 6 man of the year average last year? How much did CJ average last year? I would wager to say CJ could average 16 to 18 off the Bench. Compared to his six points a game last year, that's a huge jump.
 
dviss1 said:
C'mon now... Listen to your own argument.

With 30+ per you're going up against multiple defenders. One could even argue that's a better way to develop.
Click to expand...

But your the one providing hypotheticals as the basis of your argument, so I am countering. You have not used the facts once to validate your opinion. I did listen to my own argument and I stand by it.
I still love ya though! :)

The key is, like Schilly pointed out, is a GM is always thinking big picture and not isolating things. I believe NO knew very well the changes he was going to make and overall had a big picture of how to do it. And the record of the team proves it worked out. I seriously question whether we would have won any more games with Nic and not Hendo and Vonleh. Regardless of Aminu, but you put Aminu into the mix (as many have pointed out is essential to how the dominos fell) then it was a clear win for us.
 
dviss1 said:
No he wouldn't. How much did the 6 man of the year average last year? How much did CJ average last year? I would wager to say CJ could average 16 to 18 off the Bench. Compared to his six points a game last year, that's a huge jump.
Click to expand...

But how do you know he even gets a shot at 30+ minutes?

This is all hypothetical, and nothing comes of it.

Lets come back to reality.
 
Strenuus said:
But how do you know he even gets a shot at 30+ minutes?

This is all hypothetical, and nothing comes of it.

Lets come back to reality.
Click to expand...

Because that's the entire basis of their argument. Hypotheticals and excluding a key component to the argument.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Because that's the entire basis of their argument. Hypotheticals and excluding a key component to the argument.
Click to expand...

"You're not going to win! I'm gonna make stuff up and announce it as fact!!!!!"
 
honkicracker said:
...trusting Batum to not make flat foot, one armed passes is a huge risk...But personally? I never liked Batum. His weak attempts inside letting someone like Tim Frazier cause him to miss a wide open layup(that should be a dunk) bothered me greatly. I appreciate Aminu's ability to attack the rim with both hands. It's enjoyable to see someone using their body to their advantage, rather than playing smaller than their height suggests.
Click to expand...

Fez Hammersticks said:
Vonleh has a build that you rarely see. He plays much bigger than his 6'9" height. His base is already strong enough to check most centers - and he's only 20...Batum's PER36 numbers are pretty much the same with his USG% at a career high.
Click to expand...

Vonleh for Batum. We traded a tired, always-injured SG for a young PF. A flimsy forward who doesn't want to be a forward, for a strong forward who can play center sometimes.
 
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