Portland fans probably won't like the win total listed at the bottom of the preview. Go ahead, you can sneak a look. Just scroll back up when you're done, you dirty hippie.
It's not egregious, the predicted record. I'm not calling for the Trail Blazers to fall off the face the Earth. In fact, I'm adding a win to their 2008-09 win total, a season that saw them win fewer games than the team's point differential suggested.
But it is just one more win, for a team expected to do big things. 60-win things. Championship things.
Why? I'm having a hard time telling you. This is a championship caliber team, even though it couldn't get out of the first round last year. It's loaded, it has more talent than last season, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Blazers eventually racked up those 60 wins. Or more.
So why just one more? Injuries, I guess, but I'm not going to pretend to know who randomly gets hurt this year. Andre Miller might pout a bit, but even if he is out of shape and reliving his time spent with the Los Angeles Clippers back during 2002-03, he can't be any worse than the backup point guards that Portland trotted out last year. Really, there's no reason.
It's just how I think it shakes out. The West is stacked, again, and wins are going to be hard to come by. Do you really want to take some wins away from the Lakers or Spurs and hand them to the Trail Blazers ... just ‘cause? I don't.
The team will be much better in 2009-10. The offseason included picking up a few rookies who won't play and essentially trading Sergio Rodriguez for Miller, and that's about it. Every other step up will come from internal development.
For most teams, that's a bit of a bummer. When your team boasts Brandon Roy(notes) (possibly the league's most underappreciated superstar), LaMarcus Aldridge(notes), and Greg Oden(notes), this is a great thing. To say nothing of Martell Webster(notes), Travis Outlaw(notes), Rudy Fernandez(notes), or (especially) Nicolas Batum(notes). This team is loaded with great, young players; and I don't even really care for Jerryd Bayless(notes).
And every year, until they hit their prime, youngsters take their production up a step as compared with the season before. And the Trail Blazers? Every player on the Blazers, who was a Blazers last season, will be better than the year before. Every one. That's so huge.
I don't like to be in the business of sussing out the spring while sitting in the midst of October, but I honestly think Portland is the clear number two in the West. Better than San Antonio, better than Denver, better than anyone else.
I don't have them winning as much as the Spurs in the regular season, for whatever reason, but I think they have the best chance at knocking off the Lakers. This team could go from the lottery to a championship in just two years.
Everyone's got to stay on point, though. Everyone has to be willing to walk the million mile journey and stay focused, and I think Nate McMillan's the sort of guy who can keep that focus for this (still, very) young team. I'm not worried about Portland taking a step back. Roy's too good, in all areas. With Oden in shape, he'll truly shape up that iffy Trail Blazer defense. The depth is there, the scoring is the best in the league per possession, and we're still early in this particular game.
This is the year of the second big jump, Portland. Just don't measure it by regular season win total.
Prediction: 55-27
— Kelly Dwyer
