SharpesTriumph
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Portland is an awkward trade fit. Based purely on talent (because Morey doesn't worry about things like "it's going to be uncomfortable having a holding-out Ben Simmons"), Lillard is too heavy a trade return and McCollum is too light. Simmons is massively talented--it just so happens the one thing he doesn't do well is the most important single trait right now. But the 76ers have been successful with him before--they were a double-doink Leonard shot away from the Eastern Conference Finals a couple years ago. The best way for the 76ers to fade into irrelevance is to blow the Simmons trade and get back someone who isn't star level. McCollum isn't star level. Morey knows that, which is why he's taking his sweet time--while I think some of his reported trade proposals have been absurd, I do agree with his process in taking his time. They have Simmons under lock and key for four years, he's not about to disappear as a trade option imminently Morey's better off waiting to see if some team gets desperate or some star becomes disgruntled.
And what's his dream scenario? That both factors happen in Portland. If by the trade deadline, Portland is mired in, say, tenth place (because seeds 6-10 are all within a few games of each other), it's not impossible that Olshey will be getting desperate and Lillard will be unhappy. I still don't think Olshey moves Lillard in that situation, but it becomes not-impossible perhaps. At least, that's something Morey can hope on. But he can also hope a team like Sacramento gets desperate and offers up De'Aaron Fox or some other situation of that ilk. Short of trying to get out of the gate with as many early regular season wins as possible, there's not much upside for Philadelphia to trade Simmons for McCollum, IMO.
Great post. Yes I agree with it. While CJ might be the best player today that Philly can get, it doesn't make sense for them to make this trade if the goal is to contend and beat Brooklyn. Morey is a title or bust guy, so I see him risking whatever negatives happen this season with a Simmons holdout.
I feel like Simmons camp will cave on the hold out first... if in a few months he has lost over $10 million his attitude may change. It has been confirmed Ben can never get back those lost dollars even if Philly and the new team later tried. If we are months into this and Philly says hey we will do this for years if need be can you imagine Ben still holding out? It's truly an unprecedent situation.
Once Morey has traded Ben for a lesser starter (CJ, Hield, DiAngelo Russell) he won't be able to later flip that player for an all star the way he could if he had kept Simmons. So I agree Philly is not going to trade Ben.