Biggest draft busts :(

[PapaG]

I think almost no player has so much talent that he's a "good bet" (i.e. higher than 50% chance) to be an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Durant's elite start certainly makes him one of the best current bets, but he's still probably at a lower 50% chance to end up with a total career as great as Stockton's.

And he's definitely no Jordan. He may have more career totals than Jordan at the same age, since he entered the NBA earlier, but he hasn't yet come even close to young Jordan's dominance. His total PER, for example, is lower than Jordan's from ages 21 to 22 and Jordan was about to embark on almost unprecedented numbers starting in his age 23 season. Durant's PER actually declined significantly this past seaon, from about 26 to 23. Nothing suggests that Durant is about to rip off a completely historic tear of seasons. It's possible, but definitely very, very unlikely.

That said, it's hardly pooh-poohing Durant to say he's not nearly as good as probably the greatest basketball player ever. I think Durant is a fantastic player.

Durant's usage went down as well, while Westbrook's increased almost 6 points. OKC is going to have to make a decision on Westbrook, who was fairly terrible in the playoffs, and how he fits with Durant, who was better than in the regular season, despite having an even lower usage rate.

What is amazing to me is that Westbrook has a career Ortg of 105, and a career Drtg of 108, was even worse in these playoffs, yet is seen by some posters here as the franchise player for OKC. I think OKC needs to trade him after this year if he can't figure out how to play with a clearly superior talent in Durant.

 

[PapaG]

I disagree. Players have only been coming out of college after their freshman year for 20 years or so.

I think that the number of games played is important when considering statistics--moreso than age.

Durant (as I said) is off to a fantastic start. He's been a great scorer. I don't think that it's likely he'll keep it up, and even if he did there's no Barkley and Stockton to go with his Jordan to justify Oden being a bigger bust than Bowie if we take into consideration opportunity cost (as the original content seemed to do in this thread).

Ed O.

Yeah, Bowie is a bigger bust. Obviously.

You pass on the GOAT, that's the price you pay. What's funny is that Hakeem would likely not have a title if Jordan hadn't played baseball for a year. Would Hakeem then be considered the "greatest" bust? By "greatest", I mean great player who actually was a bust only because of not winning a title, and because of Jordan winning 8 in a row?

 

[Minstrel]

What is amazing to me is that Westbrook has a career Ortg of 105, and a career Drtg of 108, was even worse in these playoffs, yet is seen by some posters here as the franchise player for OKC. I think OKC needs to trade him after this year if he can't figure out how to play with a clearly superior talent in Durant.

I think Westbrook isn't close to the talent that Durant is, but he's pretty damn good. Before they ditch Westbrook, they should attempt to find a coach who can use both optimally.

Of course, if they can find a good trade for Westbrook, they should be ready to do that. But it's hard to get equal value for a young star...the players of around his value are rarely available. Turning him into a group of lesser players probably will make them a worse team, as quality-for-quantity trades generally favor the team getting the quality. Of course, that doesn't mean it's impossible for such a trade to benefit the franchise but, as I said, I'd look at the coaching first.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think if we win the coin flip, Phi Slamma Jamma's Portland Chapter has as many rings as MJ would've ended up with.

 

[Minstrel]

I think if we win the coin flip, Phi Slamma Jamma's Portland Chapter has as many rings as MJ would've ended up with.

Quite possible. Olajuwon reached an NBA Finals way before Jordan did, but his team was beaten in 6 by a vastly superior Celtics team. Then the destruction by injuries of Sampson made Houston rather run-of-the-mill til they rebuilt in the '90s. Had Olajuwon landed on those Drexler Portland teams which, in real reality, came close to winning titles, Olajuwon probably puts them over the top in at least 2-3 seasons, if not more.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

many careers start off amazing, only to derail (roy, to an extent cp3)

remember when ken griffy jr was a shoe in to hit 800 homers?

dwight gooden was the second coming of christ his first few years.

etc, etc.

all that means is nothing is a sure thing

 

[3RA1N1AC]

I think if we win the coin flip, Phi Slamma Jamma's Portland Chapter has as many rings as MJ would've ended up with.

agreed

 

[PapaG]

I think if we win the coin flip, Phi Slamma Jamma's Portland Chapter has as many rings as MJ would've ended up with.

Hakeem would have had his career in Portland impacted by injuries and/or age, though.

Regards,

Bill Walton
Sam Bowie
Arvydas Sabonis
Greg Oden

 

[Natebishop3]

Well, I disagree in that Barkley played in a day where you could be very physical in the post. Besides, is it Durant's fault that he is 6'10" and can score from the perimeter by creating his own offense?

Durant is a freak, and I just laugh at people who try to pooh-pooh him in order to make Oden seems like a less-disastrous pick.

I think the current no-handcheck rules are far more influential on the game than Barkley being physical in the post. They still allow superstars to be physical in the post, but taking away the handcheck made it very difficult to guard slashers. Also, I think the NBA protects superstars more than they did when Jordan, Stockton, and Barkley were rookies.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

limpacted by age? like he would have eventually gotten old?

 

[PapaG]

limpacted by age? like he would have eventually gotten old?

Sabonis. Derrr

 

[Minstrel]

Sabonis. Derrr

So Olajuwon wouldn't have come over to Portland from the University of Houston until he was in his 30s? The NCAA would probably have helped expedite the process for Portland.

 

[PapaG]

I think the current no-handcheck rules are far more influential on the game than Barkley being physical in the post. They still allow superstars to be physical in the post, but taking away the handcheck made it very difficult to guard slashers. Also, I think the NBA protects superstars more than they did when Jordan, Stockton, and Barkley were rookies.

Watch an NBA game from Magic Johnson's heyday. There was almost no contact allowed. The Pistons of Daly and the Knicks of Riley completely changed the game. Even with the "new" rules, the game is much more physical now than it was 20-30 years ago, IMO. Watching some of those old games is like watching a pick-up game at the gym, but with much better shooters. Michael Cooper was considered an elite defender, and he weighed 170 lbs. soaking wet.

 

[Natebishop3]

Watch an NBA game from Magic Johnson's heyday. There was almost no contact allowed. The Pistons of Daly and the Knicks of Riley completely changed the game. Even with the "new" rules, the game is much more physical now than it was 20-30 years ago, IMO. Watching some of those old games is like watching a pick-up game at the gym, but with much better shooters. Michael Cooper was considered an elite defender, and he weighed 170 lbs. soaking wet.

I think it will be interesting in fix or six years to look back and compare numbers from Durant's ten years in the league to some of those other players ten years in the league.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Suppose Greg spontaneously combusts tomorrow: even then he's a bust like Len Bias was a bust.

(In case it's not obvious, I think it's silly to label Len Bias a bust.)

 

[PapaG]

So Olajuwon wouldn't have come over to Portland from the University of Houston until he was in his 30s? The NCAA would probably have helped expedite the process for Portland.

As a Blazer center, would that have surprised you?

Dumb debate, anyhow. I assume you know what I meant, though.

 

[PapaG]

I think it will be interesting in fix or six years to look back and compare numbers from Durant's ten years in the league to some of those other players ten years in the league.

Well, in terms of NBA scoring leaders, Durant is on the low end in the past 40 years, even including his 30 ppg season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Basketball_Association_season_scoring_leaders

Durant's 27.7 ppg this year is the second-lowest since George Gervin in 1977. The game is much tougher these days in terms of scoring, IMO.

 

[julius]

Imho, LaRue counts as one for the simple fact he was picked based on 1 game.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

tracy mcgradys 19-22 years > durants 19-22 years

and lets see if durant can put up 32 ppg with a 30.2 PER and lead the league in ws/48 next year in his age 23 season

 

[Shooter]

If we look at unfulfilled potential, then Bias is higher on the list, given he didn't play a single NBA game.

Excuse me??? A "bust" is someone who never plays up to his potential, not someone who dies before he even gets a chance to play. Len Bias does not belong on any list of this kind.

 

[Ed O]

Excuse me??? A "bust" is someone who never plays up to his potential, not someone who dies before he even gets a chance to play. Len Bias does not belong on any list of this kind.

Did he play up to his potential?

Ed O.

 

[Minstrel]

As a Blazer center, would that have surprised you?

I think the idea that he would not have come to Portland in his prime, due to some superstition, is just silly. He would have joined the Blazers, promptly shattered his leg in ten places and never recorded a point or block in the NBA. Science.

Dumb debate, anyhow.

What do you expect? It's clown town around here.

 

[Minstrel]

tracy mcgradys 19-22 years > durants 19-22 years

and lets see if durant can put up 32 ppg with a 30.2 PER and lead the league in ws/48 next year in his age 23 season

McGrady was a talent on the level of Kobe...he just didn't have the durability. But that wasn't clear in his first few seasons, so you never know.

Durant appears to be a Hall of Fame talent, but many things can happen to derail a career. What if he falls in with gangs and gets hooked on the weed?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Suppose Greg spontaneously combusts tomorrow: even then he's a bust like Len Bias was a bust.

(In case it's not obvious, I think it's silly to label Len Bias a bust.)

More like a tragic idiot. He (Bias) would need an extension ladder to reach "bust" status.

Sorry if that sounds cold - but the older I get, the less patience I have for people who have it all and decide to just piss it away.

Oden, OTOH is a bust. The reason he was a failure doesn't interest me because it makes no difference to the team's W/L record.

 

[MickZagger]

Did he play up to his potential?

Ed O.

Seriously?

 

[Minstrel]

I think we have a fundamental disconnect between posters over what constitutes a "bust." If you define it as "contributing no value to the team because you simply weren't good enough" then Bias doesn't qualify (and neither does Oden). If you define it as "a draft pick that resulted in little to no value to the team" then Bias could be argued as the ultimate bust (never played a minute for the team that selected him) and Oden has been a bust so far.

I think people who are reacting badly to Bias being called a "bust" are imputing a blame element to the label...and blaming a guy who died seems cold. If you simply define busts in terms of value received by the team, it's not cold at all. It's just reality.

 

[Ed O]

I think we have a fundamental disconnect between posters over what constitutes a "bust." If you define it as "contributing no value to the team because you simply weren't good enough" then Bias doesn't qualify (and neither does Oden). If you define it as "a draft pick that resulted in little to no value to the team" then Bias could be argued as the ultimate bust (never played a minute for the team that selected him) and Oden has been a bust so far.

I think people who are reacting badly to Bias being called a "bust" are imputing a blame element to the label...and blaming a guy who died seems cold. If you simply define busts in terms of value received by the team, it's not cold at all. It's just reality.

Exactly.

Anyone who read this thread should know that it seems to me that the original chart seems to use two criteria:

1. Production relative to perceived potential, and
2. Opportunity cost of players that the team could have drafted, instead.

Oden being number one based on these criteria seems silly to me, and I pointed out that Bowie has him beaten (quite soundly) on the second one and Bias has him beaten on the first.

Further, I asserted that EVEN IF Oden never played another NBA minute, that would remain to be the case.

I don't blame Bias for dying (although he did more to deserve it than Oden has done to deserve his injuries, as far as I can tell), but it's not about assigning blame when someone is called a bust. It is what it is. We don't need to think it means there's blame to assign.

(Except in the case of Bowie. Jordan was the obvious pick. )

Ed O.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think we have a fundamental disconnect between posters over what constitutes a "bust." If you define it as "contributing no value to the team because you simply weren't good enough" then Bias doesn't qualify (and neither does Oden). If you define it as "a draft pick that resulted in little to no value to the team" then Bias could be argued as the ultimate bust (never played a minute for the team that selected him) and Oden has been a bust so far.

I think people who are reacting badly to Bias being called a "bust" are imputing a blame element to the label...and blaming a guy who died seems cold. If you simply define busts in terms of value received by the team, it's not cold at all. It's just reality.

I don't think it's cold to label someone a bust when they basically took their own life. This guy wasn't killed crossing a street or choking on a piece of steak... the guy died from a drug overdose. I'm sorry if I don't have any sympathy for someone that dumb. I think it's tragic that the guy died so young, and that his family had to endure his death, but people who are too dumb to stay away from dangerous substances deserve to be called a bust. I think the label fits him just fine.

 

[jlprk]

You could classify busts by whom to blame.

Scouts: Overrated LaRue Martin. Drafted many others too high.

Trainers and doctors: Ruined Bill Walton and didn't anticipated injuries of many players.

The evil system: Killed Len Bias. Keeps drug dosages unregulated and thus unpredictable.

 

[Minstrel]

I don't think it's cold to label someone a bust when they basically took their own life. This guy wasn't killed crossing a street or choking on a piece of steak... the guy died from a drug overdose. I'm sorry if I don't have any sympathy for someone that dumb. I think it's tragic that the guy died so young, and that his family had to endure his death, but people who are too dumb to stay away from dangerous substances deserve to be called a bust. I think the label fits him just fine.

I don't think it's stupid, but he obviously has to absorb some of the responsibility. I can understand a kid pushed into that culture and lifestyle not understanding what an immense risk he's taking. People routinely take risks that they don't realize the enormity of, not because they're stupid but because the human mind is often a pretty poor risk calculator. If you see lots of people doing it around you with no ill effects, it's pretty natural for your instinctive sense of the risk involved to go way down, even if that doesn't match the real risk.

So, no, I don't think he's stupid and I think it might be a little cold to say "Fuck him, he blew his chance so he deserves no sympathy" (not that you are necessarily saying that), but I'm okay with labeling him a bust from a drafting standpoint.