Bill Simmons and Steve Kerr Talk Trail Blazers On The BS Report

[PtldPlatypus]

CJ/Leonard to Mil
Ilyasova to HOU
Asik to POR

Get it done. Contend now. Usually, I'm vehemently against trading youth for vets who have reached their ceiling to try to contend in the present, but Asik's contract is very reasonable, and think he would perfectly complement the rest of our team.

IIRC, his $15M contract next year only counts 8.3 to the cap, but the whole thing is considered for luxury tax calculations. If that deal were made (which couldn't happen because the salaries aren't close enough), he could cost upwards of $20M next year. That would probably not qualify as "reasonable".

 

[illmatic99]

Really? I always thought the $8mil figure was what was official everywhere, including lux tax calculations. Nvm. Still potentially worth it if we think he puts us in contention for one of the top spots in the WC.

Look at how many other teams at the top are in lux tax territory. Gotta pay to contend.

Another thing, if we're gonna get Asik, I wanna keep Lopez as a backup. Trading them for each other defeats the purpose of going after Asik in the first place (ie needing C depth).

 

[BrianFromWA]

the 8.3M is the value used for the LT. Not the 15M. It's the same principle for which we're not assessed a cap hit or tax for the 17+M we're paying Roy this year.

 

[Pinwheel1]

That's not fair value. At all.

Two of those people haven't played at all this year, Leonard has played against Howard.

Houston would never do it.

Unless Morey scouted CJ and really likes him. There are many who do. Look how split it is on this board. I am not sure if I would do it either, but I still think it is fair value, hell Houston may be getting a steal for all we know. But like I said it is a bit of a gamble on both parts.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Really? I always thought the $8mil figure was what was official everywhere, including lux tax calculations. Nvm.

Actually, researching a bit more, it looks like you may be right. What I was remembering was the discussion last summer when Asik and Lin were offered their contracts, and the reason that they weren't matched.

The catch is in how the deal is paid out differently by the team making the offer and the team having to match it (the Bulls). For Houston, Asik’s cap hit each year would be the total money evenly split over three seasons. For the Bulls, it would mean having to pay that $14 million in the final year, a figure that would put them way over the luxury tax threshold right when the tax penalties are slated to become even more severe for repeat payers.

So apparently, that balloon payment in year 3 was no longer an issue once the deal was not matched, so I rescind my prior statement about the reasonability of his contract.

 

[mook]

I've got no problem giving up on CJ before we can see what he can do. Just think back to Outlaw, Telfair, Sergio, Rudy and about a dozen other promising looking prospects over the past decade that we had to wait on, because we couldn't trade them and "risk another Jermaine O'Neal." Part of CJ's value is the mystery. Nobody buys a scratched lottery ticket.

I think Asik would be fine with splitting minutes with Lopez, assuming we do a 3 big man rotation of Aldridge/Asik and Lopez on the bench. Lopez is a good center, but Asik is a much better one. We can live with 10 minutes of Lopez/Asik a night at PF/C--just let the three pointers fly.

It's Robin who gets the table scraps, and I think he may not relish that. But he's been a backup for most of his career mostly because there are better options.

Of all the guys, it's Robinson and Freeland who get really fucked. Those guys have shown some nice improvements already this year, and it kind of sucks to put more established vets ahead of them. But Portland has to get better at interior defense, and that isn't happening enough with either of those two.

 

[illmatic99]

So apparently, that balloon payment in year 3 was no longer an issue once the deal was not matched, so I rescind my prior statement about the reasonability of his contract.

Ya I kinda figured that poison pill was only in effect for CHI/NYK.

 

[Natebishop3]

This is the first time in a long time where I would not make a trade. The team is playing so well, and there isn't a glaring hole. We're developing chemistry, we have a really good bench, we have two stars, I just don't see a reason to mess with any of that. Asik is good, but he's not a huge difference maker. Not enough to warrant messing with our chemistry. I like Lopez. I think he's worth every dime we're paying him.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I still believe CJ will be the SGOTF.

Asik is a better player than Lopez but the gap isn't huge.

Lopez is in the right situation and is a legitimate starting caliber center.

Easy pass, especially if they ask for CJ.

 

[Natebishop3]

I still believe CJ will be the SGOTF.

Asik is a better player than Lopez but the gap isn't huge.

Lopez is in the right situation and is a legitimate starting caliber center.

Easy pass, especially if they ask for CJ.

Even if they aren't asking for CJ, I'm not sure the deal is worth it. We're developing some real chemistry. I wouldn't even consider making a trade until later in the season when we have a better idea of how good this team will be.

 

[magnifier661]

I also think Eff DwightMare and the horse he rode into HOU on.

That's the main reason why I don't want to help them. Let them suffer! But alas, some team will want asik and most likely deal a key piece to get him. I would still say no, for the most part.

But, asik for cj, Leonard and claver ain't that bad. We aren't ruining our chemistry because we are trading pieces away that we aren't using right now. I do love me some CJ though, so that's still hard.



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[Natebishop3]

That's the main reason why I don't want to help them. Let them suffer! But alas, some team will want asik and most likely deal a key piece to get him. I would still say no, for the most part.

But, asik for cj, Leonard and claver ain't that bad. We aren't ruining our chemistry because we are trading pieces away that we aren't using right now. I do love me some CJ though, so that's still hard.



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The upgrade of Asik over Lopez isn't enough to warrant trading CJ.

 

[julius]

The upgrade of Asik over Lopez isn't enough to warrant trading CJ.

It's not entirely apparent that it actually is a significant upgrade over Lopez.

 

[magnifier661]

The upgrade of Asik over Lopez isn't enough to warrant trading CJ.

I want them both.


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[Natebishop3]

It's not entirely apparent that it actually is a significant upgrade over Lopez.

Well, that's like, my point..... dude.

 

[illmatic99]

Don't the defensive stats make Asik a clear cut upgrade over Lopez? And given our primary weakness of defense in the paint, I think adding Asik would make a huge difference.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The upgrade of Asik over Lopez isn't enough to warrant trading CJ.

For me it really isn't the "upgrade" that we are talking about. It is the depth. If an injury to Robin occurs..... I don't want our season to be over.

 

[julius]

Well, that's like, my point..... dude.

I was concurring. Jerkface!

 

[Natebishop3]

For me it really isn't the "upgrade" that we are talking about. It is the depth. If an injury to Robin occurs..... I don't want our season to be over.

Trading for Asik would significantly shake things up. We're 9-2 right now. Is it worth it to mess with team chemistry because we're worried that someone might get hurt?

 

[julius]

For me it really isn't the "upgrade" that we are talking about. It is the depth. If an injury to Robin occurs..... I don't want our season to be over.

Although not sure if you're in favor or against the trade, it brings up a point about the potential trade. The problem is, to trade for Asik, the team would have to trade some of it's depth (due to salary differences).

IF they didn't trade Lopez, theyd have to trade basically CJ, Freeland, Leonar and Claver.

Now yes, 3 of those guys don't play much (or haven't due to injury), but Freeland is the only other big on the team that is an actual big. And yes, Asik/Lopez would be better than Lopez/Freeland, that trade wouldn't happen because A: Houston would probably want more and B: Portland isn't trading CJ, at least for Asik. Not saying that CJ is a bonafide star, but Asik isn't such an improvement over their current situation to justify it.

So if the team takes out CJ, they'd have to include Crabbe and Burton. Sure, neither one plays, but what happens if there is an injury to Wes or Nic?

It's a case of trading 4 or 5 players for 1 + maybe a pick.

Trading for Asik is a New York Knicks kind of trade. It doesn't move the needle.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Reading all the Asik threads over at clutchcity - Asik is more of a man-on-man defender, average (at best) weak-side shotblocker.

Lopez is cut from the same mold.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Trading for Asik would significantly shake things up. We're 9-2 right now. Is it worth it to mess with team chemistry because we're worried that someone might get hurt?

Probably not. At least not right now.

 

[Pinwheel1]

So if the team takes out CJ, they'd have to include Crabbe and Burton. Sure, neither one plays, but what happens if there is an injury to Wes or Nic?

I am not sure if I am in favor or against it either......

But to answer the 4-1 question, if we kept CJ and lost Wes to an injury, we would still have CJ, Mo, Batum and Wright to fill in.

Replacing Nic, we would have Wes and Wright. (With CJ and Mo getting SG minutes)

Of course losing Nic or Wes would hurt us badly, but we would have bodies to fill in as good as Barton and Crabbe. Plus if we made a 4-1 we would have space to add players who may be as good as Barton and Crabbe. At least for this year.

But this is all just hypothetical for discussions purposes. I agree it is not worth disrupting the team chemistry right now.

 

[Eastoff]

Part of CJ's value is the mystery. Nobody buys a scratched lottery ticket.

You'd buy it if you knew it was a winner.

 

[Eastoff]

Just curious, who is on your list that you would disrupt chemistry if the right center was available?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Reading all the Asik threads over at clutchcity - Asik is more of a man-on-man defender, average (at best) weak-side shotblocker.

Lopez is cut from the same mold.

But he's a much better pick and roll defender than Lopez. IIRC

 

[Draco]

Well is Lopez going to make us a title contender? He may be a fan favorite but that does not mean he should be off limits.

I never said anything about trading or not trading Lopez. I’m open to an upgrade, it just depends how much it costs. If the Blazers have a realistic chance at contending this year or next than CJ as the primary piece for Asik makes sense. The three way trade with Milwaukee for Ilyasova is a good idea as Houston would prefer a veteran; there are teams who would want our young assets. But if the Blazers are looking at contending in CJ’s 3rd or 4th season than it would be better to keep CJ and pass on Asik. CJ will be on a cheap rookie contract. In the summer of 2015 the Blazers will have Matthews, Lopez, Aldridge, Wright as free agents. If Asik comes here in a trade and is the center we hope he would command $10 million as well in that summer. There won’t be cap space to keep everyone. But the Blazers could keep CJ along with one of those players as CJ is only on the cap for $2 million. So in essence the Blazers would be trading away CJ and Matthews (or similar free agent) for Asik in that 3rd year.

The Blazers can’t really make a trade until the middle of December so they have that long to decide if they need to add Asik’s interior defense; is the short term improvement of a solid center worth the long term sacrifice of a cheap young player with potential?

 

[illmatic99]

You'd buy it if you knew it was a winner.

You wouldn't sell it if were a winner. This is actually a pretty good analogy.

 

[donkiez]

Why do people like Asik so much? I don't think he is anything other than an above average center and Lopez seems to be doing pretty good right now. Would this really be a significant enough move to risk our chemistry for? Also Lopez really likes it here, which defiantly counts for something.

 

[Eastoff]

You wouldn't sell it if were a winner. This is actually a pretty good analogy.

Right! Although most people don't win, when they play scratch-offs. =\