Blazer free agency tiers

[Draco]

I’ve organized the leagues free agents into 6 tiers I’d want the Blazers to consider signing if I were GM. With Mo Williams opting out of his contract the Blazers currently only have 2 open roster spots. This lack of roster spots will not allow much flexibility in signing players for the veteran minimum; as the team will first need to focus on using the $5.3 million mid level exemption. Thus some of the veterans options whom I’d consider nice signings for a lower priced contract may have to wait until the Blazers either trade away a guaranteed contract, buy out a guaranteed contract or first utilize the bulk if not all of their mid level exemption.

However the team can carry 16 or more contracts until the regular season starts at the end of October, so the Blazers could sign that extra player now with the hope of finding a trade. If no trade develops a player such as Victor or Crabbe can be cut and the team eats that final guaranteed year of their contract. It’s unlikely the team goes with that route but it is an option if the find a few excellent valued free agents available but are lacking a roster spot.

First on my list are players that are a lock to receive contracts for more than the MLE, I would definitely love to have them on the team but it would have to be through a sign and trade. With the Blazers having such cohesion in their starting five I find it extremely unlikely a mutually beneficial deal could be worked out; but I suppose we never know:

**Starter free agents above the MLE:
PG - Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe
SF – LBJ, Carmello Anthony, Luol Deng, Gordon Hayward
PF - Greg Monroe, Dirk Nowitzki

The next tier of free agents are guys I would offer the full MLE to. The “not ancient” players I would probably offer for the max 4 years which could push the contract to over $20 million but for the older veterans it would need to be shorter term deals. Some of these players may end up signing contracts for significantly more than the MLE, but I would give any of them the option if for some odd reason they really wanted to come to Portland:

**FULL MLE free agents:
PG - Avery Bradley, Mario Chalmers
SF – Andrei Kirilenko, Trevor Ariza, Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce
PF – Pau Gasol
C – Spencer Hawes

In the middle of these two tiers I have the “Meka Oak” tier, its filled with one player for the full MLE if our medical staff believes his health concerns are a thing of the past.

C- Emeka Okafor

The next tier of free agents are not quite full MLE players but are worth more than the veteran minimum. If we strike out on other superior free agents and the below player plays a position of need they may be the type of player who the Blazers or another team decides to overpay for the full MLE on a short term deal. Historically these have often been some of the worst types of contracts when given out to players for too many seasons:

**Not worth min not worth full
PG – Shaun Livingston, Grevis Vasquez, Devin Harris, Darren Collision, Patty Mills, Steve Blake
SG – Rodney Stuckey, Thabo Sefolosha
SF – Marvin Williams, PJ Tucker, Richard Jefferson
PF – Andray Blatche, Ed Davis, Josh McRoberts, Patrick Patterson
C – Jason Smith, Ekpe Udoh, Boris Diaw, Jordan Hill

The next tier I have is vet minimum to ~$2million type of players. For some teams they wouldn’t be in the rotation and thus are probably only worth about the vet minimum, but for teams that have a need at that position these players have played quality rotation minutes in this league. Some such as Udrih are lower upside with little risk, other like Granger probably have significant upside but a high health risk:

PG – Beno Udrih, Kirk Hinrich, Luke Ridnour, Ramon Sessions
SG – Vince Carter
SF – Danny Granger, Mike Miller
PF – Kris Humphries, DeJuan Blair
C – Jermaine Oneal, Elton Brand

The final tier of players are ones I would only consider worthy of a veteran minimum contract but are interesting options:

PG – Aaron Brooks, Chauncy Bilups, Jerryd Bayless
SG – Jodie Meeks, Xavier Henry, Jordan Crawford
SF – James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, CJ Miles, Al Harrington
PF – Aron Baynes
C – Aaron Gray, Matt Bonner, Hasheem Thabeet

These are players I have zero interest in and would not sign for even the minimum:

PG – Nate Robinson, DJ Augustine, Kendall Marshall
SG – Evan Turner
SF – Shane Battier
PF – Michael Beasley, Kenyon Martin
C – Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Greg Steismsma

Hope you liked my writeup! I enjoy making projections about Blazer trades, draft, and free agency. This year is particularly unusual, and very nice, in that we have the luxury of doing absolutely nothing and being still being set with a great starting 5. We also have the excitement of young bench players with potential.

 

[Strenuus]

My list (from this list) In order from the tiers

Bledsoe would be an awesome get!

Ariza I would take, for sure. Hawes would be interesting. Bradley for his defense (Would have to make up the points somewhere else).

Udrih has always been intriguing for me. I think in the right system he could flourish. Vince Carter would be nice for one year to see what we can get out of him.

Al Harrington, IMO, would be nice.

And on your last list. I'd take a look at Nate Robinson and Evan Turner. I think Turner would be good in this system.

 

[Natebishop3]

You wouldn't even sign Evan Turner for the vet minimum? That's harsh.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Thanks for the nice list Draco, though I disagree about who's in what Tier.

1) Personally, I'd be thrilled with Kendall Marshall for vet. min., but I don't think it's going to happen (and you wouldn't sign him at all?).

2) Danny Granger has really fallen off the charts.

3) Quit foolin' with my Luol Deng for the midlevel fantasy

 

[Draco]

I'd be very cautious with Turner. There are reports about him often looking for his own shots being a contributing factor to the mess in Indy. Notice who didn't play in game 1 against Miami, and we coincidentally see the best performance from the Pacers in two months? If he was here I think he'd desperately want to prove he was worth a larger contract, that is not the type of player we need.

He had the opportunity to shoot as much as he wanted in Philly and I think that was bad for his development. He played in a system that was the opposite of San Antonio, highlighting individual stats at the expense of team performance. The 6ers had almost no interest in keeping his restricted free agency rights. Those are some major red flags for me. I'd rather just avoid the risk entirely. The team chemistry on the Blazers was excellent last year and by all accounts a major contributing factor for the success.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

My theory has always been that you can have ONE headcase on a team, but he must be talented enough to warrant it (I call it the Dennis Rodman Rule). Others have called for the signing of Nick Young. If what you suggest is true I'd be OK with Young or Turner, but not both! Certainly If I could get Turner for vet. min. I'd do it, but I'm pretty sure that's not going to work.

I'd be very cautious with Turner. There are reports about him often looking for his own shots being a contributing factor to the mess in Indy. Notice who didn't play in game 1 against Miami, and we coincidentally see the best performance from the Pacers in two months? If he was here I think he'd desperately want to prove he was worth a larger contract, that is not the type of player we need.

He had the opportunity to shoot as much as he wanted in Philly and I think that was bad for his development. He played in a system that was the opposite of San Antonio, highlighting individual stats at the expense of team performance. The 6ers had almost no interest in keeping his restricted free agency rights. Those are some major red flags for me. I'd rather just avoid the risk entirely. The team chemistry on the Blazers was excellent last year and by all accounts a major contributing factor for the success.