Blazer in the Playoffs

[TBpup]

As of this morning, the Blazers are the #7 seed, 1/2 game behind the Pelicans. But Boogie Cousins ruptured his Achilles last night so they will start falling down the ranks.

There are only 9 teams in competition for the 8 Playoff spots. At #10 is Utah and they are already 7 games under .500 and going no where fast. The Clippers are at #9 but have fought injuries and now it looks like they may trade DeAndre Jordan. They aren't likely to go on a winning streak any time soon either.

That leaves Denver at #8, the Blazers at #7 and the Pelicans who will begin their descent from #6. Pelicans will likely fall out of the Playoffs and even if they don't, both they and the Clips aren't making it....so the Blazers are in.

Throw a parade!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Basketball-reference currently has us with an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs. They project us to be the 7th seed with 43.9 wins. They currently have NOP at 6th with 44.6 projected wins and DEN at 8th with 41.7 wins.

538 currently gives us a 76% chance to make the playoffs. They are projecting us to finish 7th with 44 wins. They have NOP projected as 6th with 46 wins and DEN at 8th with 42 wins.

These are mathematical models based strictly on performance of all teams to date and do not comprehend the impact of any recent injuries or future trades.

BNM

 

[TBpup]

@Boob-No-More ...We were very likely to make it before just because there are only 9 teams in an 8 horse race. Now with Boogie out it makes it almost a certainty. Now to avoid being 1st round cannon fodder.

 

[BrianFromWA]

4 games behind the 3-seed Spurs, who we just beat.
3 games behind the 4-seed Wolves, who we just beat.
1.5 games behind the 5-seed Thunder, who we just beat.

Offense starting to heat up... I'm excited.

 

[BrianFromWA]

@Boob-No-More ...We were very likely to make it before just because there are only 9 teams in an 8 horse race. Now with Boogie out it makes it almost a certainty. Now to avoid being 1st round cannon fodder.

Honestly, though, is 2nd-round fodder for the W's or Rockets that much better?

(I think so, and I give us a puncher's chance against HOU. The more playoff games our guys get while they're young, the better.)

 

[BrianFromWA]

I feel like any thread like this has to have the obligatory, "we're still 33 games away"...

 

[Nikolokolus]

If ever there was a jinx thread.

Major injury for Damian, CJ and/or Nurkic coming in 3 ... 2 ...

 

[tester551]

@Boob-No-More ...We were very likely to make it before just because there are only 9 teams in an 8 horse race. Now with Boogie out it makes it almost a certainty. Now to avoid being 1st round cannon fodder.

Just need to be 6 or higher. I think Portland would give Spurs, Minny, or OKC a run for their money.

Just need to avoid Warriors & Rockets

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Just need to be 6 or higher. I think Portland would give Spurs, Minny, or OKC a run for their money.

Just need to avoid Warriors & Rockets

Exactly my thought as well.

 

[KingSpeed]

Don't count out Jazz yet. We were way below .500 last year too.

 

[blue9]

Just need to be 6 or higher. I think Portland would give Spurs, Minny, or OKC a run for their money.

Just need to avoid Warriors & Rockets

Yup - those are the three teams I want to match up with in the 1st.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Don't count out Jazz yet. We were way below .500 last year too.

At this point in the season last year, the Blazers were 7 games below 500. This year they're 5 games over. Over the past 2 years, they've definitely started off slow and ramped up.



Let's hope we see that strong finish again this year!

 

[TBpup]

Their 2nd half schedule was easier the last two years than this years 2nd half.

 

[KingSpeed]

Their 2nd half schedule was easier the last two years than this years 2nd half.

That is true

 

[Strenuus]

Yay?

 

[THE HCP]

Basketball-reference currently has us with an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs. They project us to be the 7th seed with 43.9 wins. They currently have NOP at 6th with 44.6 projected wins and DEN at 8th with 41.7 wins.

538 currently gives us a 76% chance to make the playoffs. They are projecting us to finish 7th with 44 wins. They have NOP projected as 6th with 46 wins and DEN at 8th with 42 wins.

These are mathematical models based strictly on performance of all teams to date and do not comprehend the impact of any recent injuries or future trades.

BNM

So my 40-42 prediction wasn't that far off.

 

[Boob-No-More]

So my 40-42 prediction wasn't that far off.

You are currently trending 10% low, but they still have to play the games. The last two years the team has had a much better record during the second half of the season.

Last year they were 11 games under .500 on February 28. They made up those 11 games and finished at .500.

They probably won't finish that strong this year. But I'd be surprised if they only win 13 more games between now and the end of the season.

BNM

 

[ripcityboy]

If we can play anybody other than GS it would be like a breath of fresh air. Even if it's San Antonio and we can pull a couple of games out. Another 4 and out and it will affect everybody from the Paul Allen on down.

 

[TBpup]

If we can play anybody other than GS it would be like a breath of fresh air. Even if it's San Antonio and we can pull a couple of games out. Another 4 and it and it will affect everybody from the Paul Allen on down.

Blazers need to win at least 2 games for it even to be worth showing up. 1 win can happen just because the other team beating the crap out of you gets bored.

 

[Eastoff]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...hunder-injures-left-leg-taken-court-stretcher

This too helps our chances

 

[TBpup]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...hunder-injures-left-leg-taken-court-stretcher

This too helps our chances

It probably does a little but wouldn't it be nice if our chances were helped by improved play and not season ending injuries to rival's players.

 

[Lukee]

Against Spurs in 1st round, calling it already.

 

[Minstrel]

Against Spurs in 1st round, calling it already.

Wouldn't be too bad a match-up, especially if Kawhi Leonard is out.

 

[Boob-No-More]

For those who are new here, or who may have missed it, last March and April, I ran a Blazers Playoff Odds thread with daily updates. It's still January and too early for that level of detail on a daily basis, but here are the links to the three sites I used:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 83.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 77% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 85.3% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 43.9-38.1, 7th seed.

Keep in mind these forward-looking projections are based on performance to date and do not include the impact of recent injuries, future trades, etc. Things can, and will change, often significantly. I started that thread on Mar 5, 2017, with just 21 regular season games remaining. At that time, the consensus odds were the Blazer had a 24.1% chance of making the playoffs and their projected record was 36-46.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

With Cousins and Roberson injured, I'd peg the Blazers' chances 'round 'bout 100%.

I don't think it's certain that the Blazers catch the Thunder, but the chance that they do more than drowns out the small chance that the Pelicans remain in the race.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It probably does a little but wouldn't it be nice if our chances were helped by improved play and not season ending injuries to rival's players.

Roy/LMA/Oden dynasty on Line 1.
Dame/LMA/Wes run on Line 2.

 

[Boob-No-More]

It probably does a little but wouldn't it be nice if our chances were helped by improved play and not season ending injuries to rival's players.

Or maybe both? They aren't mutually exclusive. It's not like we Gilloolyed Boogie or Roberson.

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

It probably does a little but wouldn't it be nice if our chances were helped by improved play and not season ending injuries to rival's players.

Warriors won 2 titles because of injuries to rivals' players (Love, Kyrie in 2015, Kawhi in 2017). You take what you can get.

 

[stampedehero]

As of this morning, the Blazers are the #7 seed, 1/2 game behind the Pelicans. But Boogie Cousins ruptured his Achilles last night so they will start falling down the ranks.

There are only 9 teams in competition for the 8 Playoff spots. At #10 is Utah and they are already 7 games under .500 and going no where fast. The Clippers are at #9 but have fought injuries and now it looks like they may trade DeAndre Jordan. They aren't likely to go on a winning streak any time soon either.

That leaves Denver at #8, the Blazers at #7 and the Pelicans who will begin their descent from #6. Pelicans will likely fall out of the Playoffs and even if they don't, both they and the Clips aren't making it....so the Blazers are in.

Throw a parade!

I'll believe it when the playoff berths are official.

 

[Chris Craig]

Against Spurs in 1st round, calling it already.

I think we will be playing the Timberwolves