Blazer in the Playoffs

[TBpup]

Warriors won 2 titles because of injuries to rivals' players (Love, Kyrie in 2015, Kawhi in 2017). You take what you can get.

Yes.....and if we get ANYWHERE near the Finals, I'll take that. But we aren't. We are at #7 with the possibility of moving up a couple of spots due to injuries players on teams just ahead of us....who also aren't contenders.

 

[Shaboid]

For those who are new here, or who may have missed it, last March and April, I ran a Blazers Playoff Odds thread with daily updates. It's still January and too early for that level of detail on a daily basis, but here are the links to the three sites I used:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 83.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 77% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 85.3% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 43.9-38.1, 7th seed.

Keep in mind these forward-looking projections are based on performance to date and do not include the impact of recent injuries, future trades, etc. Things can, and will change, often significantly. I started that thread on Mar 5, 2017, with just 21 regular season games remaining. At that time, the consensus odds were the Blazer had a 24.1% chance of making the playoffs and their projected record was 36-46.

BNM

I really appreciated those treads. Mainly because it meant we had a shot at the playoffs. You never know when that underdog is gonna get his day.

Semi-related note; I remember the seeding rules got updated a couple years ago in regards to division leaders. Has there been any similarly important changes in the off-season to this year playoffs? I have a hard time following all the NBA rule changes.

 

[illmatic99]

Minny just lost in ATL. We're a game in the loss column out of the #4 seed.

 

[Almir]

I think that Blazers will finish between 4-6 seed, even in case of some good run have a good chance to attack 3rd also. The rivals are affected with injuries and will probably have some unexpected defeats. I am sure that PTB will be above: Pelicans, Nuggets, Clipers.
The Rockets and Wariors are untouchable and there will be fight with Wolves, Thunder and Spurs for the position. If i can choose, i would like to see Portland on third seed with Minesota on 6th. But more realistic wish then will be Ptb and Minesota on 4-5 seeds. Even Minesota are a great, great team i will rather to play them in playoff 1st round then both Spurs or Thunder.

Good luck and greetings from Bosnia to all of you

 

[TBpup]

Blazers currently 4.5 games out of 3rd place. That is where they should try to make their run. Doubtful they can climb that high but that would get them HCA and avoid the Warriors in the 2nd round. 33 games to go. The Spurs have played three more games and only have 30 games left. If they continue at their .635 winning percentage, they will finish with 52 wins. Portland would need to go 25-8 to catch them and then somehow get the tie-breaker.

Even though they are only 4.5 games back, that type of run is highly unrealistic but that is where they need to be to make the season worth something. Still not a contender but at least a viable playoff team.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Blazers currently 4.5 games out of 3rd place. That is where they should try to make their run. Doubtful they can climb that high but that would get them HCA and avoid the Warriors in the 2nd round. 33 games to go. The Spurs have played three more games and only have 30 games left. If they continue at their .635 winning percentage, they will finish with 52 wins. Portland would need to go 25-8 to catch them and then somehow get the tie-breaker.

Let's pretend Portland wins every home game the rest of the way with the exception of the three against GSW/HOU . That would be 14-3 at home. That would then require going 11-5 on the road the rest of the way to hit that 25-8 mark. Best I can figure, that would mean wins at LAC, DET, SAC, UTA, PHX, LAL, LAC, NOP, MEM, DAL, SAS (so as to win that necessary tie-breaker) with losses at TOR, BOS, OKC, HOU, & DEN.

that type of run is highly unrealistic but that is where they need to be to make the season worth something

Agreed.

 

[TBpup]

Let's pretend Portland wins every home game the rest of the way with the exception of the three against GSW/HOU . That would be 14-3 at home. That would then require going 11-5 on the road the rest of the way to hit that 25-8 mark. Best I can figure, that would mean wins at LAC, DET, SAC, UTA, PHX, LAL, LAC, NOP, MEM, DAL, SAS (so as to win that necessary tie-breaker) with losses at TOR, BOS, OKC, HOU, & DEN.

Well postulated. That seems at least a little more doable when you outline it like that but from a shear numbers standpoint, we agree it is will highly unlikely.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Blazers currently 4.5 games out of 3rd place. That is where they should try to make their run. Doubtful they can climb that high but that would get them HCA and avoid the Warriors in the 2nd round. 33 games to go. The Spurs have played three more games and only have 30 games left. If they continue at their .635 winning percentage, they will finish with 52 wins. Portland would need to go 25-8 to catch them and then somehow get the tie-breaker.

Even though they are only 4.5 games back, that type of run is highly unrealistic but that is where they need to be to make the season worth something. Still not a contender but at least a viable playoff team.

Last year, POR went 7-6 over they last 23 games. And that was with Nurk fever and an easy schedule. On March 1, POR was 11 games under .500, tied with DAL for the 11th seed and 2.5 games behind DEN for the 8th seed. The Blazers ended up finishing in 8th, 1 game ahead of DEN. So, they basically closed out the season 17-6 and made up 3.5 games on DEN.

Not saying going 25-8 and making up 4.5 games on SAS is impossible, but the odds are slim. We'd have to finish the season even better than we did last year, with a tougher schedule. And, we're chasing the Spurs, not the Nuggets.

BNM

 

[dviss1]

Or maybe both? They aren't mutually exclusive. It's not like we Gilloolyed Boogie or Roberson.

BNM

Love how you used that as a verb!!

 

[Mediocre Man]

Is it over yet?

 

[Almir]

Blazers currently 4.5 games out of 3rd place. That is where they should try to make their run. Doubtful they can climb that high but that would get them HCA and avoid the Warriors in the 2nd round. 33 games to go. The Spurs have played three more games and only have 30 games left. If they continue at their .635 winning percentage, they will finish with 52 wins. Portland would need to go 25-8 to catch them and then somehow get the tie-breaker.

Even though they are only 4.5 games back, that type of run is highly unrealistic but that is where they need to be to make the season worth something. Still not a contender but at least a viable playoff team.

Yeah i am aware of the fact that will be a very hard task to catch the Spurs on 3rd seed, and it is unlikely - that's why i more think about that 4-5 seed at least to be competitive in 1st round. But somewhere in the head and now i can say in the hart (i really started to like this team not just and only because of Nurk) i am thinking about that fight for the third, go through first tound and avoid only Warriors (do not care for Houston). If some good run happen and in the same time the oponents have some bad luck. When i say good run, of course it is hard, this is nba, but while i am watching this club i can say one thing - on the night when the players or at least main players are in good mood and playing just exactly how they know to play Portland can beat anyone in one match. Maybe i am wrong maybe not, but that's how i feel it. I will watch and hope for 4-5 seed, but untill the mathematics say it is not possibile, i will follow Spurs and hope for each their defeat

 

[Almir]

Excuse me if something is wrong written on English, i am trying hard

 

[e_blazer]

Excuse me if something is wrong written on English, i am trying hard

Welcome to the forum. We're always glad to have new members, especially ones from around the globe. Your English is fine. Nothing like a little practice in order to get better at it.

 

[TBpup]

Welcome to the forum. We're always glad to have new members, especially ones from around the globe. Your English is fine. Nothing like a little practice in order to get better at it.

Yes, don't worry.....even when the post police ridicule the heck out of you for some misspelling or something not quite in context. They haven't been out of their mom's basement for a while and have little else to do.

 

[Almir]

Welcome to the forum. We're always glad to have new members, especially ones from around the globe. Your English is fine. Nothing like a little practice in order to get better at it.

Thanks!

 

[Almir]

Yes, don't worry.....even when the post police ridicule the heck out of you for some misspelling or something not quite in context. They haven't been out of their mom's basement for a while and have little else to do.

cheers!

 

[kjironman1]

For those who are new here, or who may have missed it, last March and April, I ran a Blazers Playoff Odds thread with daily updates. It's still January and too early for that level of detail on a daily basis, but here are the links to the three sites I used:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 83.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 77% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 85.3% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 43.9-38.1, 7th seed.

Keep in mind these forward-looking projections are based on performance to date and do not include the impact of recent injuries, future trades, etc. Things can, and will change, often significantly. I started that thread on Mar 5, 2017, with just 21 regular season games remaining. At that time, the consensus odds were the Blazer had a 24.1% chance of making the playoffs and their projected record was 36-46.

BNM

Seems like pretty clearly the Griffin trade changed things a bit for Portland. They are pretty solid 6th seed now on two of those polls with marginally higher win%.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Seems like pretty clearly the Griffin trade changed things a bit for Portland. They are pretty solid 6th seed now on two of those polls with marginally higher win%.

The small changes have nothing to do with the trades, or the recent injuries. These are mathematical models based entirely on performance of all teams to date.

The small changes are due to MIN and DEN losing last night.

BNM

 

[kjironman1]

The small changes have nothing to do with the trades, or the recent injuries. These are mathematical models based entirely on performance of all teams to date.

The small changes are due to MIN and DEN losing last night.

BNM

Ahh. I see. So with a win tonight they could possibly nudge a little higher also?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ahh. I see. So with a win tonight they could possibly nudge a little higher also?

Definitely. All of these projections are based on simulations that run every night after all games are completed. They basically look at where everyone is (current record), simulate all remaining games something like 50,000 times, take the average results for each team (projected results), add them everyone's current record and them come up with a final projected record for each team and then rank the teams in order by conference.

Whether we win or lose, has a direct impact on our projected won-loss record. If the other teams near us in the standings win or lose, it also impacts our odds of making the playoffs. On a much smaller level, how all of our future opponents do has a tiny impact on our future SoS. Which is one of the factors used in the nightly simulations.

BNM

 

[BBert]

Excuse me if something is wrong written on English, i am trying hard

Having myself sometimes struggled to properly express myself in a foreign language, I appreciate your effort and your courage, along with your contributions to the board. Post more

 

[Boob-No-More]

Excuse me if something is wrong written on English, i am trying hard

You're doing fine. I appreciate your enthusiasm. Thanks for participating. Don't worry about the language thing. We all speak Trail Blazer here!

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

I think that Blazers will finish between 4-6 seed, even in case of some good run have a good chance to attack 3rd also. The rivals are affected with injuries and will probably have some unexpected defeats. I am sure that PTB will be above: Pelicans, Nuggets, Clipers.
The Rockets and Wariors are untouchable and there will be fight with Wolves, Thunder and Spurs for the position. If i can choose, i would like to see Portland on third seed with Minesota on 6th. But more realistic wish then will be Ptb and Minesota on 4-5 seeds. Even Minesota are a great, great team i will rather to play them in playoff 1st round then both Spurs or Thunder.

Good luck and greetings from Bosnia to all of you

Excuse me if something is wrong written on English, i am trying hard

You are doing just fine.

Welcome to the forum. We're always glad to have new members, especially ones from around the globe. Your English is fine. Nothing like a little practice in order to get better at it.

Welcome Almir,
Love more members and I echo the above sentiments.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You're doing fine. I appreciate your enthusiasm. Thanks for participating. Don't worry about the language thing. We all speak Trail Blazer here!

BNM

Some of us speak Trail Blazer with a L*ker accent, though...

 

[Almir]

Having myself sometimes struggled to properly express myself in a foreign language, I appreciate your effort and your courage, along with your contributions to the board. Post more

Thank you! Cheeers

 

[Almir]

You're doing fine. I appreciate your enthusiasm. Thanks for participating. Don't worry about the language thing. We all speak Trail Blazer here!

BNM

Thanks as well!

 

[Almir]

You are doing just fine.



Welcome Almir,
Love more members and I echo the above sentiments.

Thank you very much!

 

[42N8Bounce]

Why has Aminu shot 7 3 pointers this game? Take it to the rim!

 

[THE HCP]

Excuse me if something is wrong written on English, i am trying hard

You sir have nothing to apologize about. We are just glad to have you aboard here on our little fan forum. I should warn you, there are a few here who might give you a hard time and treat you like a “rookie” just because you are new, if you can believe that. Well don’t you let their sophomoric behavior keep you from posting your opinions of our beloved Blazers.
If there are any questions, or if you just want to chat, feel free to contact me. Welcome to you my amigo-The HCP

See Sly!

 

[THE HCP]

Some of us speak Trail Blazer with a L*ker accent, though...

You rang FAMS?