Blazer in the Playoffs

[Almir]

You sir have nothing to apologize about. We are just glad to have you aboard here on our little fan forum. I should warn you, there are a few here who might give you a hard time and treat you like a “rookie” just because you are new, if you can believe that. Well don’t you let their sophomoric behavior keep you from posting your opinions of our beloved Blazers.
If there are any questions, or if you just want to chat, feel free to contact me. Welcome to you my amigo-The HCP

See Sly!

Thank you very much!

 

[Sarni]

I would much prefer to be 6th seed than 5th seed. If we finish 6th, we most likely play Spurs in the first round which is difficult but possible if Leonard is out, and then the winner of Houston against whoever ends up 7th - which is still much easier than playing Warriors.

Warriors would likely face Timberwolves or Thunder in the second round then which could be slightly tough for them. They will progress but they might lose a game or two.

 

[SIeepwalker]

Thank you very much!

Don't trust him !

 

[Boob-No-More]

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 83.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 77% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 85.3% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 43.9-38.1, 7th seed.

After last night's action:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 89.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 6th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 86% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 91.8% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44.5-37.5, 6th seed.

BNM

 

[tester551]

After last night's action:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 89.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 6th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 86% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 91.8% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44.5-37.5, 6th seed.

BNM

Surprising to me that there's that big of separation predicted between the 3, 4, 5 spots (all 49-50 wins) and the #6 spot (44-46 wins).
Currently Portland sits 2 games out of the 4th spot.

 

[TBpup]

3 losses behind the Spurs. That is who I want to catch.

 

[illmatic99]

Surprising to me that there's that big of separation predicted between the 3, 4, 5 spots (all 49-50 wins) and the #6 spot (44-46 wins).
Currently Portland sits 2 games out of the 4th spot.

Our schedule is about to get really tough. We needed to feast on an easy Nov/Dec but we blew games to teams like BK/SAC/ATL. And not to mention the number of games we've lost to better teams missing their best players.

On the other side, what games have we won that we should have probably lost? @ OKC without Dame is prolly the only one I can count.

We'd be at 30-20 and in the fourth seed if things went to plan.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Surprising to me that there's that big of separation predicted between the 3, 4, 5 spots (all 49-50 wins) and the #6 spot (44-46 wins).
Currently Portland sits 2 games out of the 4th spot.

Right now, we're winning the games the simulations expect us to win. So, we're not gaining much ground on the teams ahead of us in the projections. Start winning the games the simulations expect us to lose and we'll start gaining on OKC and MIN.

If we beat CHI at home tonight, don't expect much movement. Beat TOR and/or BOS on the road, watch what happens then!

Same thing in reverse: if MIN and OKC start losing games they should win, we will gain ground on them both in the standings and in the projections.

As long as the actual results closely track the predicted results, there won't be much change to the trajectory. Start beating some of the better teams and the trajectory will change.

BNM

 

[dviss1]

You sir have nothing to apologize about. We are just glad to have you aboard here on our little fan forum. I should warn you, there are a few here who might give you a hard time and treat you like a “rookie” just because you are new, if you can believe that. Well don’t you let their sophomoric behavior keep you from posting your opinions of our beloved Blazers.
If there are any questions, or if you just want to chat, feel free to contact me. Welcome to you my amigo-The HCP

See Sly!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Our schedule is about to get really tough.

I'm expecting a 3-game losing streak to start February.

 

[Almir]

Let's see what will happen in February. I mean for the comparation with Spurs. They have almost same difficult fixtures as well (Warriors, Rockets, Cavaliers, Nuggets x2,) maybe the difference could be lower for at least one win. We need to break somewhere especcialy in firts three matches. Tor, Bos, Det. 2-1 in our favour and we can have very realistic hope to catch them ( i assume they will lost vs above mentioned teams, and at least once vs Nuggets). But let's see...i cant wait for these matches.

 

[TBpup]

Spurs next 10 games: Maybe 3, possibly 4 losses in there? Going to be tough to catch them but that's what I hope they are shooting for.

ROCKETS
JAZZ
@Suns
@Warriors
@Jazz
@nuggets
@nuggets (10 days later after All-Star break)
@Cavaliers
PELICANS
LAKERS

 

[Boob-No-More]

After last night's action:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 89.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 6th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 86% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 91.8% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44.5-37.5, 6th seed.

BNM

After last night's action:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 91.5% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45-37, 6th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 89% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 93.4% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45.0-37.0, 6th seed.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Spurs next 10 games: Maybe 3, possibly 4 losses in there? Going to be tough to catch them but that's what I hope they are shooting for.

ROCKETS
JAZZ
@Suns
@Warriors
@Jazz
@nuggets
@nuggets (10 days later after All-Star break)
@Cavaliers
PELICANS
LAKERS

Projected final standings:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds:

1 - GSW = 65-17
2 - HOU = 59-23
3 - SAS = 50-32
4 - MIN = 49-33
5 - OKC = 49-33
6 - POR = 45-37
7 - NOP = 42-40
8 - DEN = 41-41

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions:

1 - GSW = 63-19
2 - HOU = 58-24
3 - SAS = 50-32
4 - OKC = 50-32
5 - MIN = 49-33
6 - POR = 46-36
7 - NOP = 43-39
8 - LAC = 41-41

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report:

1 - GSW = 62.5-19.5
2 - HOU = 58.0-24.0
3 - SAS = 49.8-32.2
4 - OKC = 48.4-33.6
5 - MIN = 48.3-33.7
6 - POR = 45.0-37.0
7 - NOP = 42.7-39.3
8 - DEN = 41.3-40.7

BNM

 

[BrianFromWA]

Boob, do those have a rolling weighted average, or take season-into-account up to this point? I'm pretty sure they don't do predictive (like NOP without Biggie going forward...), but I'm intrigued by if our rotation getting a bit tighter and the offense starting to come back without corresponding defensive tanking is being adjusted for (or not)

 

[TBpup]

@Boob-No-More ....so they have the Blazers LOSING ground to the teams in front of them. Well,.....

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Projected final standings:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds:

1 - GSW = 65-17
2 - HOU = 59-23
3 - SAS = 50-32
4 - MIN = 49-33
5 - OKC = 49-33
6 - POR = 45-37
7 - NOP = 42-40
8 - DEN = 41-41

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions:

1 - GSW = 63-19
2 - HOU = 58-24
3 - SAS = 50-32
4 - OKC = 50-32
5 - MIN = 49-33
6 - POR = 46-36
7 - NOP = 43-39
8 - LAC = 41-41

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report:

1 - GSW = 62.5-19.5
2 - HOU = 58.0-24.0
3 - SAS = 49.8-32.2
4 - OKC = 48.4-33.6
5 - MIN = 48.3-33.7
6 - POR = 45.0-37.0
7 - NOP = 42.7-39.3
8 - DEN = 41.3-40.7

BNM

So per these models, 50 wins potentially gets us into conversation for the 3 seed? That would require 21-10 from this point forward. Sounds daunting, but...

Looking at the schedule, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that we might actually be favored in 21 of our final 31 games.
Should be underdogs @TOR, @BOS, @DET, vGSW (2x), vHOU, vBOS, @OKC, @HOU, @SAS. Should be favored in the rest (debatable for games @UTA, @LAC, @NOP, @DEN).

50 wins is not only not out of reach, but is also actually not unreasonable.

 

[Boob-No-More]

@Boob-No-More ....so they have the Blazers LOSING ground to the teams in front of them. Well,.....

Of course they do. All these projections are based on performance to date. The teams ahead of the Blazers have performed better to date and are expected to continue to do so. If you forget all the fancy simulations and just use everyone's current winning percentage you get:

3 - SAS = 52.6-29.4
4 - MIN = 48.6-33.4
5 - OKC = 48.2-33.8
6 - POR = 46.6-35.4

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Boob, do those have a rolling weighted average, or take season-into-account up to this point? I'm pretty sure they don't do predictive (like NOP without Biggie going forward...), but I'm intrigued by if our rotation getting a bit tighter and the offense starting to come back without corresponding defensive tanking is being adjusted for (or not)

They just use performance to date. They look at overall record, margin of victory, strength of schedule, home and road records, etc., but it's all forward looking projections based on performance to date. So, recent injuries and trades haven't yet had an impact (they eventually will, but only after several post-injury/post-trade games have been played).

BNM

 

[TBpup]

Looking at the schedule, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that we might actually be favored in 21 of our final 31 games.
Should be underdogs @TOR, @BOS, @DET, vGSW (2x), vHOU, vBOS, @OKC, @HOU, @SAS. Should be favored in the rest (debatable for games @UTA, @LAC, @NOP, @DEN).

If they can't win 3-4 of those underdog games, they don't deserve HCA anyway. Those are good to very good teams for the most part but if the Blazers are truly making a run, you have to beat those teams once in a while.

 

[TBpup]

The Rockets helped out the Blazers by beating the Spurs in San Antonio. Blazers now only 2 back in the loss column (5 back in the win column) from the Spurs. A road win against the Raptors tonight would be huge!

 

[Hoopguru]

As of this morning, the Blazers are the #7 seed, 1/2 game behind the Pelicans. But Boogie Cousins ruptured his Achilles last night so they will start falling down the ranks.

There are only 9 teams in competition for the 8 Playoff spots. At #10 is Utah and they are already 7 games under .500 and going no where fast. The Clippers are at #9 but have fought injuries and now it looks like they may trade DeAndre Jordan. They aren't likely to go on a winning streak any time soon either.

That leaves Denver at #8, the Blazers at #7 and the Pelicans who will begin their descent from #6. Pelicans will likely fall out of the Playoffs and even if they don't, both they and the Clips aren't making it....so the Blazers are in.

Throw a parade!

Yep....going to be a dog fight maybe 3-8!
Trying to figure this site out. Im ancient and not to good at figuring this forum out.
Seems very busy to me with to many options, oh well, I need a challenge and this will work!
Lets beat us some Raptors today!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yep....going to be a dog fight maybe 3-8!
Trying to figure this site out. Im ancient and not to good at figuring this forum out.
Seems very busy to me with to many options, oh well, I need a challenge and this will work!
Lets beat us some Raptors today!

I have faith in your ability. If nothing else, you got this to post.

 

[Almir]

The Rockets helped out the Blazers by beating the Spurs in San Antonio. Blazers now only 2 back in the loss column (5 back in the win column) from the Spurs. A road win against the Raptors tonight would be huge!

Nice results last night, Spurs lost, and Thunder as well. This will be huge win if we manage it vs Raptors. They lost vs Wizards and i really have good, positive feeling for this match. I think Blazers are now full of confidence and no reason to not attack them with all weapons. Can't wait for the match, will try to not sleep and watch it ( very hard to watch it in our time zone but worth it).. Go Blazers!

 

[Boob-No-More]

After last night's action:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 91.5% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45-37, 6th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 89% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 93.4% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45.0-37.0, 6th seed.

BNM

After last night's action:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 90.6% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 45-37, 6th seed.

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 87% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 46-36, 6th seed.

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 92.3% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44.9-37.1, 6th seed.

Projected final standings:

ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds:

1 - GSW = 64-18
2 - HOU = 59-23
3 - MIN = 50-32
4 - SAS = 50-32
5 - OKC = 48-34
6 - POR = 45-37
7 - NOP = 42-40
8 - DEN = 42-40

FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions:

1 - GSW = 63-19
2 - HOU = 59-23
3 - MIN = 50-32
4 - OKC = 49-33
5 - SAS = 49-33
6 - POR = 46-36
7 - NOP = 43-39
8 - DEN = 42-40

Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report:

1 - GSW = 62.5-19.5
2 - HOU = 58.6-23.4
3 - SAS = 49.2-32.8
4 - MIN = 48.8-33.2
5 - OKC = 47.8-34.2
6 - POR = 44.9-37.1
7 - NOP = 42.7-39.3
8 - DEN = 41.9-40.1

BNM

 

[Almir]

Spurs lost vs Jazz. Not bad, not bad

Nuggets defeat Warriors. Not expected.