Blazers 2025-26 West predictions (1 Viewer)

[SharpeScooterShooter]

.
that's not true....I said:



notice I mentioned Simons, Walker, Banton, Jrue, Thybulle, Sharpe, and Avdija. Are all 7 of those guys C's?

I was simply replying to the question of why most posters have predicted 9th seed, or lower for next season using winshares last season as an explanation.

enough with you asking me to justify my prediction. How about you justifying why you have the most homerific prediction of anybody: 6th seed. Last season it would have taken 49-50 wins to reach 6th seed

using last season and winshares again, Blazers had 36 wins and 10 of those, according to winshares were from the 4 departing Blazers. So, a rough starting point of 26 wins meaning new additions and exiting player improvement have to generate 23-24 wins to reach 6th seed. That's an extremely tall order

or, put it another way using last season:

View attachment 74441

which 3 of those 8 teams will the Blazers be better than this year?

Sorry your response to my question only referenced centers.
But the loss of those seven guys, half are moving on.

Im not trying to get you to justify anything. Im just trying to better understand your stance compared to mine. No need to get defensive.
Im just asking if you think Scoot/ Sharpe/Clingan and even Camara will improve next year and if they do as expected, im asking, wouldnt that alter the winshares to the point we might possibly be better than last year?

The reason i ask is not due to your prediction of 9th as much as you referencing going from 36 wins to 24 or whatever it was.
With the roster as it is now, do you really think we are 10-12 games worse then last year, even with the predicted youth development?

its not an argument, just a conversation.

Regarding the conference, I think we have an outside chance of getting to the 6th seed. But we need the youth to pop. I think we can be better than memphis, Denver, LAC, GSW.
Not sure about Minni or the others.

 

[Strenuus]

As of this writing, 12 people have the correct answer.

Lottery team is the correct answer.

 

[Cugel]

UTA is tanking. Who knows what SAC and NOP are doing. That leaves POR and probably MEM both trying to win. SAS will likely be better than those mentioned. GSW and DAL is a tough read.

 

[riverman]

I’m the homer vote. 54 wins. 3rd seed in the west. Scoot, Murray, Matisse’, Grant and Duop are all capable of popping. Grant will benefit from Jrue running the offense. Deni and Tou already popped. Two young promising centers. It’s time those older vets in the west take a step back. Our youth and defense is going to be an advantage. I can’t imagine wasting another season on an imaginary draft pick

 

[blazerkor]

I’m the homer vote. 54 wins. 3rd seed in the west. Scoot, Murray, Matisse’, Grant and Duop are all capable of popping. Grant will benefit from Jrue running the offense. Deni and Tou already popped. Two young promising centers. It’s time those older vets in the west take a step back. Our youth and defense is going to be an advantage

No love for Shaedon and his ability to pop?

 

[riverman]

As of this writing, 12 people have the correct answer.

Lottery team is the correct answer.

Bah humbug!!!

 

[riverman]

No love for Shaedon and his ability to pop?

I stand corrected. I think he’s the perfect 6 man on the team now that we have a real alpha combo guard in Holiday..Shaedon or Deni could fit that role perfectly. Deni is actually paid like a 6 man

 

[riverman]

I want one of our big 3 to be the 6 man like Ginobli was. A deep bench will win games. We’ve got a lot of bench depth..

 

[KingSpeed]

1. Portland
2. Denver
3. OKC
4. Memphis
5. Lakers
6. Warriors
7. Mavericks
8. Clippers
9. Spurs
10. Timberwolves
11. Pelicans
12. Rockets
13. Kings
14. Suns
15. Jazz

 

[SharpesTriumph]

ESPN has us in the 9th-11th tier

OKC - Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite

Tier 2: Ready to deny a repeat champ
HOU
DEN
MIN

Tier 3: The old guard
LAC
LAL
GSW
DAL

Tier 4: Young and hungry
MEM
SAS
PDX - BLAZERS
Last season, the Trail Blazers went 13-28 in the first half of their schedule, then 23-18 in the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as two-way contributors. And by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a starting role -- a move that included buying out Ayton -- Portland affirmed and strengthened its defensive identity this summer.
It's unclear whether the Simons-less Blazers have enough offensive juice to rise into the play-in ranks, and they'll be counting on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to show more growth in the backcourt. But for the team with the West's second-longest playoff drought -- only the Spurs' is longer -- things are looking up in Portland.

Tier 5: What's the plan?
SAC
PHX
NOP
UTH

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...e-thunder-lakers-warriors-land-new-west-tiers

 

[inconceivable]

ESPN has us in the 9th-11th tier

OKC - Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite

Tier 2: Ready to deny a repeat champ
HOU
DEN
MIN

Tier 3: The old guard
LAC
LAL
GSW
DAL

Tier 4: Young and hungry
MEM
SAS
PDX - BLAZERS
Last season, the Trail Blazers went 13-28 in the first half of their schedule, then 23-18 in the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as two-way contributors. And by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a starting role -- a move that included buying out Ayton -- Portland affirmed and strengthened its defensive identity this summer.
It's unclear whether the Simons-less Blazers have enough offensive juice to rise into the play-in ranks, and they'll be counting on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to show more growth in the backcourt. But for the team with the West's second-longest playoff drought -- only the Spurs' is longer -- things are looking up in Portland.

Tier 5: What's the plan?
SAC
PHX
NOP
UTH

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...e-thunder-lakers-warriors-land-new-west-tiers

I don't know about OK being the Clear Cut favourite, they're adding Topic and a near lottery pick to a championship team, but Denver gave them a pretty good challenge and now have Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr, Cam Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Add those to Braun Gordon Murray Jokic and you have a team on the same level at least as OKC

 

[Mediocre Man]

The Blazers are good enough to make the playoffs, but at the same time they are bad enough to get a top 5 pick

 

[SharpesTriumph]

The Blazers are good enough to make the playoffs, but at the same time they are bad enough to get a top 5 pick

No, I don't see top5 pick unless the team has multiple unlikely injuries, or very unlikely lottery luck.

Certainly could fall short of the playin. But they're some horrific rosters at the bottom of the NBA standings.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

The Blazers are good enough to make the playoffs, but at the same time they are bad enough to get a top 5 pick

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I don't know about OK being the Clear Cut favourite, they're adding Topic and a near lottery pick to a championship team, but Denver gave them a pretty good challenge and now have Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr, Cam Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Add those to Braun Gordon Murray Jokic and you have a team on the same level at least as OKC

OKC should in theory have far more improvements from their core too. Chet has only played 2 seasons. Jalen was drafted with Sharpe. SGA at 26 yes was MVP but players often improve even more at that age. Cason Wallace is 21, Jaylin Williams got a multi-year extension and is 22. Caruso is basically the only guy past his prime yet he is only 31.

Denver doesn't have much upside beyond Braun or their unproven 3rd string. Gordon and Murray have had significant injuries in multiple seasons.

Really that entire top4 is elite so I wouldnt be surprised if any team there won the west. If healthy I might push OKC to that group.

Cleveland is the only comparable east team. All 6 of those teams are better than next east tier with NY/ATL/etc.

 

[wizenheimer]

ESPN has us in the 9th-11th tier

OKC - Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite

Tier 2: Ready to deny a repeat champ
HOU
DEN
MIN

Tier 3: The old guard
LAC
LAL
GSW
DAL

Tier 4: Young and hungry
MEM
SAS
PDX - BLAZERS
Last season, the Trail Blazers went 13-28 in the first half of their schedule, then 23-18 in the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as two-way contributors. And by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a starting role -- a move that included buying out Ayton -- Portland affirmed and strengthened its defensive identity this summer.
It's unclear whether the Simons-less Blazers have enough offensive juice to rise into the play-in ranks, and they'll be counting on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe to show more growth in the backcourt. But for the team with the West's second-longest playoff drought -- only the Spurs' is longer -- things are looking up in Portland.

Tier 5: What's the plan?
SAC
PHX
NOP
UTH

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...e-thunder-lakers-warriors-land-new-west-tiers

Memphis is too low. They won 48 games last season and essentially have replaced Bane with KCP, Cole Antony, and Ty Jerome. If they stay healthy they could win 50 games

I kind of wished the Blazers would have chased Jerome

 

[SharpesTriumph]

replaced Bane with KCP, Cole Antony, and Ty Jerome.

Thats a major downgrade

 

[wizenheimer]

Thats a major downgrade

Bane isn't really an all-star level player; at least not yet and he's already 27. Bane will fit well in Orlando, no doubt

last season, Winshares: Bane = 6.5; KCP+Anthony+Jerome = 12.5. I understand it doesn't work like that, straight across. But it does show that the Griz upgraded their perimeter depth. They lose some of the playmaking of Bane, at least in terms of him creating his own offense; but again, that depth is important in the regular season

they did lose Kennard

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Bane isn't really an all-star level player; at least not yet and he's already 27. Bane will fit well in Orlando, no doubt

last season, Winshares: Bane = 6.5; KCP+Anthony+Jerome = 12.5. I understand it doesn't work like that, straight across. But it does show that the Griz upgraded their perimeter depth. They lose some of the playmaking of Bane, at least in terms of him creating his own offense; but again, that depth is important in the regular season

they did lose Kennard

KCP played like shit last season - he was a negative contract and effectively the Magic had to give some of the draft equity just to dump him. I'm not sure he is better than the 3rd string guys on Memphis. Bane is a major upgrade.

Doesn't make sense to compare multiple players as the Grizzlies can only play one guy in a role. They have Coward who might be great eventually but will have a learning curve. Jackson had foot surgery and will be out for months so won't be in game shape or working on his game as would be ideal.

Ja is a major wild card - he hasn't played 7 consecutive games since Feb 2023 (9 games). Yes the Grizzlies won 48 last year. They won 27 the year prior.

Ultimately there will be a number of teams in the west that fall way short of expectations. Grizzlies very well could be one, or another couple teams have major injuries and fall short.

 

[wizenheimer]

Ultimately there will be a number of teams in the west that fall way short of expectations. Grizzlies very well could be one, or another couple teams have major injuries and fall short.

I think you're overstating the "number" of teams that fall short. It won't be 5 or 6; more like 1 or 2. Blazers may be one of them too. Just like they may be one of the teams that overachieves.

I just happen to think that Memphis will probably be in a higher tier than Portland. I wouldn't just assume the Kings will suck either. It's entirely possible they give up and try to tank. It's also possible they match or exceed their 40 wins last year. Sabonis-LaVine-Derozan could will some games if they are healthy

depending on Wemby's health, the Spurs may be the biggest riser

 

[kjironman1]

Blazers coming in a 33.5 wins just makes me want to SMH.
My prediction is slightly higher unfortunately. I wish I could feel they were either lotto bound again or in the playoffs hunt. Instead they are in no man's land.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Us coming in underrated is the only reason the Conductor has a job

 

[julius]

Just like the experts last year predicted 23 wins

 

[blazerfan11]

I don't know about OK being the Clear Cut favourite, they're adding Topic and a near lottery pick to a championship team, but Denver gave them a pretty good challenge and now have Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr, Cam Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Add those to Braun Gordon Murray Jokic and you have a team on the same level at least as OKC

I was shocked that Indiana took them to 7 games. That would have been my least likely prediction in which OKC wins the series.
1: 4-1
2: 4-0
3 : 4-2
4: 4-3

 

[GoZers]

Predictions for the Blazers at this point are impossible for me to make. So far they have

- added Lillard (I like it)
- added Yang (good so far even if taken a bit early)
- lost Ayton
- lost Simons
- added Jrue (I don’t understand this still…at all)
Cronin I guess has had a good offseason, but I’m still confused on direction. We have a handful of win-now guys and a handful of puppies. We also switched out some assistant coaches who I like.

 

[Hoopguru]

I still think Sharpe is the key. He needs to stay healthy and take a leap in scoring and defense. If he does we will be in the hunt for playoffs/playin

 

[PCmor7]

Cronin I guess has had a good offseason, but I’m still confused on direction.

It's a camouflaged tank.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't know about OK being the Clear Cut favourite, they're adding Topic and a near lottery pick to a championship team, but Denver gave them a pretty good challenge and now have Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr, Cam Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Add those to Braun Gordon Murray Jokic and you have a team on the same level at least as OKC

it was only OKC's 2nd season in playoffs and their 4th playoff series. Denver won the championship a couple of years before and had 14 playoff series worth of experience. And the Nuggets won game 1 on a miracle shot by Gordon, taking away HCA. OKC had to overcome that against Denver's experience. And OKC won game 7 by 32 points. The Nuggets may be better next season, but OKC will be an even tougher out than last season, when nobody could put them out

 

[Phatguysrule]

It really doesn't matter. We're not going to get a good draft pick unless we get incredibly lucky.

And we're not winning a series with this roster unless we get incredibly lucky.

 

[PDXFonz]

Predictions for the Blazers at this point are impossible for me to make. So far they have

- added Lillard (I like it)
- added Yang (good so far even if taken a bit early)
- lost Ayton
- lost Simons
- added Jrue (I don’t understand this still…at all)
Cronin I guess has had a good offseason, but I’m still confused on direction. We have a handful of win-now guys and a handful of puppies. We also switched out some assistant coaches who I like.

Addition by subtraction with Ant and Ayton imo