Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th seed

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I was at game 1 in the HOU series when we got blown the fuck out. Then at game 3 I think it was in the Phx series when we got blown the fuck out. Not sure if I should go to playoff games anymore.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

People talking about the poor playoff performance are forgetting about the assclown coaching those teams.

As for Dirk and Kobe being late lottery picks that people missed on is sorta my point as well. Every single one of the teams ahead of either Dallas or Charlotte could have drafted them. None of the teams below them could have. It's not the fault of the system that some GM's (I'm looking at you, John Nash) are complete idiots. Luck is also absolutely involved, but it's easier to be lucky, or take luck out of it all together with a higher pick. OKC is a shit team without Durant, and there is no way in hell they get him without having a high lottery pick that year

 

[blue9]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Looking at the three-pronged approach, they've successfully used the draft to add Lillard to go with Aldridge, giving them two excellent players. They used trades, the draft and FA signings this summer to reboot the rest of the roster with a competent center and decent backups at every position. Going forward, Olshey now has far more assets with solid trade value to make future trades. I think every player on the roster would be seen as having good trade value, with the exception of Freeland.

Eh - I think you're really overvaluing our recent acquisitions. The value we gained is in the difference between below-average players and average players - it'll make a tremendous difference in the on-court product, but is only slightly more attractive on the trade market. Of everyone we obtained, the only players who might have semi-significant value are Robinson and Crabbe - and only if they actually show something on the court. Lopez, Wright, and Watson aren't going to bring anything of value back to the team. So we're in the same position of having only LMA, Nic, Lillard, and to a lesser extent Wes and CJ, as valuable trade assets - we now just have better "toss-ins" to add value to trades.

FA signings in the foreseeable future will be limited to the Room MLE (this year) and the Non-Taxpayer MLE going forward, so if the Blazers are to become contenders with this core, it means that existing talent will have to grow and/or be traded for other impact players.

This is exactly right. I say let's keep the good, young players who are still growing (Lillard, CJ, Nic, Robinson), and use our "best" player who has the most trade value to acquire other assets that may have the potential to become impact players or who can be used to make future trades for impact players. Also, depending on the trade, it could potentially open up cap space so that we can utilize the 3-pronged approach rather than be relegated to a 2-pronged approach.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

As for Dirk and Kobe being late lottery picks that people missed on is sorta my point as well. Every single one of the teams ahead of either Dallas or Charlotte could have drafted them. None of the teams below them could have. It's not the fault of the system that some GM's (I'm looking at you, John Nash) are complete idiots. Luck is also absolutely involved, but it's easier to be lucky, or take luck out of it all together with a higher pick. OKC is a shit team without Durant, and there is no way in hell they get him without having a high lottery pick that year

The NBA has all-stars who were picked in the middle of the first round every year. Teams have always made mistakes on when to pick the best players, they are going to continue to do so. Sure its easier to pick an all-star at the top of the draft but the vast majority of players picked in the top of a draft are not all-stars so either way a team needs a combination of luck and skill. All-stars are available every year through trade, the draft is not the be all end all to acquire them.

Can you give a single example of a team that got worse intentionally to improve their draft position, drafted well and won a title? Out of your list of the last 25 years finals teams, which is 50 teams, the only team I see that somewhat meets that criteria is the 2007 Cavs, who lucked out and drafted the second best player of all time, but still fell short in the finals as the roster was totally void of talent at other positions.

 

[blue9]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Can you give a single example of a team that got worse intentionally to improve their draft position, drafted well and won a title?

I really think we need to stop relying on "winning a title" as a metric. It's been widely discussed, and agreed upon, that the NBA is not a level playing field as evidenced by a small number of teams hording the majority of NBA championships. I think it'd be a better conversation to explore which teams significantly improved through the draft, rather than expecting them to beat all odds and win a championship.
Only one team can win a championship, and chances are it's going to be one of about 5 teams and everyone has a pretty good idea which team is going to win the championship before the season even begins.

 

[crandc]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

For the record, neither Paul Pierce nor John Stockton were top 5 picks.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The NBA has all-stars who were picked in the middle of the first round every year. Teams have always made mistakes on when to pick the best players, they are going to continue to do so. Sure its easier to pick an all-star at the top of the draft but the vast majority of players picked in the top of a draft are not all-stars so either way a team needs a combination of luck and skill. All-stars are available every year through trade, the draft is not the be all end all to acquire them.

Can you give a single example of a team that got worse intentionally to improve their draft position, drafted well and won a title? Out of your list of the last 25 years finals teams, which is 50 teams, the only team I see that somewhat meets that criteria is the 2007 Cavs, who lucked out and drafted the second best player of all time, but still fell short in the finals as the roster was totally void of talent at other positions.

4 of 5 2003
3 of 5 2004
2 of 5 2005 (a third was 3rd team all NBA, but not an all star)
2 of 5 2006
2 of 5 2007
3 of 5 2008
2 of 5 2009

So 18 of 35 players picked in the top 5 have been all stars in those years (picked because the previous years were so long ago, and 2010 was too new) Another player, Andrew Bogut, never an all star, but 3rd team all NBA. Not sure how that is the "vast majority" of players picked in the top of the draft weren't all stars, when in reality, the majority of players were or are all stars. Last year, in fact, 16 of 25 players (64%) were top 5 picks


SA
Houston played for a title
OKC played for a title
CLE played for a title
ORL played for two titles

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I really think we need to stop relying on "winning a title" as a metric. It's been widely discussed, and agreed upon, that the NBA is not a level playing field as evidenced by a small number of teams hording the majority of NBA championships. I think it'd be a better conversation to explore which teams significantly improved through the draft, rather than expecting them to beat all odds and win a championship.
Only one team can win a championship, and chances are it's going to be one of about 5 teams and everyone has a pretty good idea which team is going to win the championship before the season even begins.

Well if posters are claiming the ideal way to build a team that has a chance of competing for a title is xxxx strategy they should be able to find ONE single example. There are recent examples of teams that won titles by incremental improvements; Pistons, Celtics, Mavs.

 

[blue9]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Well if posters are claiming the ideal way to build a team that has a chance of competing for a title is xxxx strategy they should be able to find ONE single example. There are recent examples of teams that won titles by incremental improvements; Pistons, Celtics, Mavs.

I don't think anybody is expecting to win a title based on a single lotto pick - all titles are won due to a variety of factors, including "incremental improvements". To try to frame the discussion the way you did (name a team that intentionally got worse, and then won a title) is not representative of what anyone is proposing.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

SA
Houston played for a title
OKC played for a title
CLE played for a title
ORL played for two titles

The Spurs didn’t discard talent to improve draft position, they kept the two best players on a perennial 50 win team. Orlando had McGrady and Grant Hill, they weren’t trying to rebuild through the lottery it just happened the team stunk and was able to get Dwight Howard, lucky them? Except Orlando at that point had a terrible roster, and being lucky enough to get an MVP talent meant they would not be in the bottom of the lottery any more, so they didn’t have any teammates to pair with Dwight and had to watch him team leave the team a few years later. Same scenario with LeBron, in the end their rebuilding failed because he never had good teammates. So being in a position to win two of the best lotteries of the last decade in the end didn’t help them a bit.

Houston acquired Drexler via trade, when did they get Hakeem, 1984? That is probably the best example of tanking working well, but it was 30 years ago and took the team over a decade to finally win a title and then they only got the second from some dumbass team trading away an all-star to rebuild.

I’d rather follow the Mavs, Pistons, and Celtics blueprint who have all won titles in the last decade.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

4 of 5 2003
3 of 5 2004
2 of 5 2005 (a third was 3rd team all NBA, but not an all star)
2 of 5 2006
2 of 5 2007
3 of 5 2008
2 of 5 2009

So 18 of 35 players picked in the top 5 have been all stars in those years (picked because the previous years were so long ago, and 2010 was too new) Another player, Andrew Bogut, never an all star, but 3rd team all NBA. Not sure how that is the "vast majority" of players picked in the top of the draft weren't all stars, when in reality, the majority of players were or are all stars. Last year, in fact, 16 of 25 players (64%) were top 5 picks

Good research, I will take a look at this later. I was thinking of looking at the top10 picks. Perhaps I should’ve said most likely not getting an all-star at the top of the draft, but yes can still get one.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I don't think anybody is expecting to win a title based on a single lotto pick - all titles are won due to a variety of factors, including "incremental improvements". To try to frame the discussion the way you did (name a team that intentionally got worse, and then won a title) is not representative of what anyone is proposing.

Have you been reading this board at all? Someone is calling for the Blazers to follow just that strategy almost every day.

So trading LA (hypothetically) and finishing with a poor enough record to be in the discussion for a top 5 pick and landing a Batman isn't worth a 28 year old Robin?

 

[magnifier661]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The Spurs didn’t discard talent to improve draft position, they kept the two best players on a perennial 50 win team. Orlando had McGrady and Grant Hill, they weren’t trying to rebuild through the lottery it just happened the team stunk and was able to get Dwight Howard, lucky them? Except Orlando at that point had a terrible roster, and being lucky enough to get an MVP talent meant they would not be in the bottom of the lottery any more, so they didn’t have any teammates to pair with Dwight and had to watch him team leave the team a few years later. Same scenario with LeBron, in the end their rebuilding failed because he never had good teammates. So being in a position to win two of the best lotteries of the last decade in the end didn’t help them a bit.

Houston acquired Drexler via trade, when did they get Hakeem, 1984? That is probably the best example of tanking working well, but it was 30 years ago and took the team over a decade to finally win a title and then they only got the second from some dumbass team trading away an all-star to rebuild.

I’d rather follow the Mavs, Pistons, and Celtics blueprint who have all won titles in the last decade.

I thought Houston was pretty good when they got Hakeem? Didn't they have Sampson? I seem to remember they were in contention a lot of years. I could be wrong though.

 

[magnifier661]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Have you been reading this board at all? Someone is calling for the Blazers to follow just that strategy almost every day.

It's blue9 man. He has trouble knowing what a tree is, let alone finding the forest.

 

[blue9]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Have you been reading this board at all? Someone is calling for the Blazers to follow just that strategy almost every day.

Honestly, not a ton. In the past I have noticed a few people suggest we should tank this season away. Though I don't know if they expect a title to be born from the tank-job - but they certainly have a strong case for being a better team 3 years down the line with that strategy. And I think that's what it's all about. You're trying to make it out to be all or nothing - win a title or you failed. I believe in an earlier post in this thread you suggested that the Cavs failed by drafting LBJ. That's just silly - they may not have won it all, but they GREATLY improved their team. That's all you can ask for in the draft.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Have you been reading this board at all? Someone is calling for the Blazers to follow just that strategy almost every day.

You are trying to lump together 2 different scenarios - the team *wanting* to trade LMA (ie intentionally tanking) vs LMA forcing his way out (ie what is the best form of damage control).

Most of those advocating tanking are convinced LMA is gone anyway, and they would rather tank for a high pick than trade him for non-impact players. Very few, if any, want to dump him just for the joy of going through a total rebuild.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

You are trying to lump together 2 different scenarios - the team *wanting* to trade LMA (ie intentionally tanking) vs LMA forcing his way out (ie what is the best form of damage control).

Most of those advocating tanking are convinced LMA is gone anyway, and they would rather tank for a high pick than trade him for non-impact players. Very few, if any, want to dump him just for the joy of going through a total rebuild.

So well said, damn you.

I know I am definitely in the first group. I think he will be gone anyway, so why not do it now and take advantage of the best draft class in the least decade

 

[e_blazer]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

You are trying to lump together 2 different scenarios - the team *wanting* to trade LMA (ie intentionally tanking) vs LMA forcing his way out (ie what is the best form of damage control).

Most of those advocating tanking are convinced LMA is gone anyway, and they would rather tank for a high pick than trade him for non-impact players. Very few, if any, want to dump him just for the joy of going through a total rebuild.

First, I disagree with the notion that LMA is gone anyway...as I've said before, there just isn't much likelihood that there's going to be a team that he'd want to go to that will have the cap room to sign him. But, for the sake of discussion, let's say that you're right, Olshey agrees, and he trades LMA for a total stiff or two in order to maximize the tanking plan. Now, if he were to totally squander LMA in such a way, you're competing with teams like the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Bobcats, Suns, Jazz, Kings, and Bucks for maximum suckitude in order to get the chance at a high pick that could, possibly, someday, become a player of LMA's caliber. Given what's left on the Blazers roster, you can't tank hard enough to where that "strategy" is very likely to work out.

 

[blue9]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Given what's left on the Blazers roster, you can't tank hard enough to where that "strategy" is very likely to work out.

Now THIS I agree with. Trading LMA will not make us "Top-5 Bad". But I still think trading LMA (by the deadline) is the best long-term strategy.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

First, I disagree with the notion that LMA is gone anyway...as I've said before, there just isn't much likelihood that there's going to be a team that he'd want to go to that will have the cap room to sign him. But, for the sake of discussion, let's say that you're right, Olshey agrees, and he trades LMA for a total stiff or two in order to maximize the tanking plan. Now, if he were to totally squander LMA in such a way, you're competing with teams like the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Bobcats, Suns, Jazz, Kings, and Bucks for maximum suckitude in order to get the chance at a high pick that could, possibly, someday, become a player of LMA's caliber. Given what's left on the Blazers roster, you can't tank hard enough to where that "strategy" is very likely to work out.

We will probably need to trade away Lillard too.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Honestly, not a ton. In the past I have noticed a few people suggest we should tank this season away. Though I don't know if they expect a title to be born from the tank-job - but they certainly have a strong case for being a better team 3 years down the line with that strategy. And I think that's what it's all about. You're trying to make it out to be all or nothing - win a title or you failed. I believe in an earlier post in this thread you suggested that the Cavs failed by drafting LBJ. That's just silly - they may not have won it all, but they GREATLY improved their team. That's all you can ask for in the draft.

The Cavs getting LeBron is the shining example of the absolute best case scenario of a team tanking. Drafting the second best player in the history of the game. The Clippers never were close to as lucky with decades of high draft picks. Even for a team that got so lucky, once in multiple decades lucky as the Cavs, they didn’t get a title out of it. So I do think it shows that a strategy primarily based on making a team far worse to eventually be better is not good.

Yes the draft is a component of team building, yes higher draft picks are better, but it should not be the sole end all be all of team building. To provide value to a roster at the draft a team is not required to have a top pick, great players pop up all the time in the middle and end of the draft. Making smart trades is important. Signing free agents on reasonable deals is important. Avoiding free agents that will be overpaid is important. The problem with having a team in the position of getting a top3 picks is they have to be so absolutely terrible with all other aspects of their roster they won’t be able to surround even a hall of famer with talent to win.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I’d rather follow the Mavs, Pistons, and Celtics blueprint who have all won titles in the last decade.

Me too.

So well said, damn you.

I know I am definitely in the first group. I think he will be gone anyway, so why not do it now and take advantage of the best draft class in the least decade

But MM...

A) The chances of drafting a player who will one day be as good as Aldridge is slim. Aldridge is that good.

and

B) If Aldridge doesn't want to say, why will the new guy want to stay?

It's a cycle. You assume the guy we're tanking for will want to stay and play here in his prime. Let's do everything we can to hold on to the All Star player we HAVE. Trading Aldridge so he can win a championship elsewhere is ridiculous.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Also- enough about this wanting to merely "play" for the title. All I'm interested in is WINNING a title. Losing in the Finals is painful just as the 2000 WCF was.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Me too.


But MM...

A) The chances of drafting a player who will one day be as good as Aldridge is slim. Aldridge is that good.

and

B) If Aldridge doesn't want to say, why will the new guy want to stay?

It's a cycle. You assume the guy we're tanking for will want to stay and play here in his prime. Let's do everything we can to hold on to the All Star player we HAVE. Trading Aldridge so he can win a championship elsewhere is ridiculous.

A) Maybe. Neither of us can say either way

B) Because people are different. I mean just because I'm straight doesn't mean you are, right? Also, why does everyone keep using the term tank? Trading a player whos "people" have asked the Blazers to trade their guy is just good business.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Also- enough about this wanting to merely "play" for the title. All I'm interested in is WINNING a title. Losing in the Finals is painful just as the 2000 WCF was.

How realistic is it for a small market team to win a title though?

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Most of those advocating tanking are convinced LMA is gone anyway, and they would rather tank for a high pick than trade him for non-impact players. Very few, if any, want to dump him just for the joy of going through a total rebuild.

He can’t leave anytime soon so why settle for .30 cent return on the dollar when you have a shot at a higher return and maybe even money down the road.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

He can’t leave anytime soon so why settle for .30 cent return on the dollar when you have a shot at a higher return and maybe even money down the road.

Why is it exactly that you think Portland will get more as time goes by?

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

MM- it is highly likely the new star will want to leave us. Look at history. Most of the star players in recent times don't stay with the team that drafted them. So we have to end the cycle. Let's fight to keep Aldridge. We have a star player now. Let's not let him go.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

MM- it is highly likely the new star will want to leave us. Look at history. Most of the star players in recent times don't stay with the team that drafted them. So we have to end the cycle. Let's fight to keep Aldridge. We have a star player now. Let's not let him go.

Why is it highly likely? Almost 100% of players re-up with their current teams the first time, unless the franchise is a complete cluster fuck. LA has played 7 seasons here, and if Roy and Oden were healthy, would probably be happy as a clam here.

 

[magnifier661]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Why is it exactly that you think Portland will get more as time goes by?

After we make it to the wcf this season