Blazers by the Numbers- a series of in-depth looks at this iteration of the Trailblazers

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
yuyuza1 said:
Is it possible that he's facing better competition, protecting the rim against him as a starter vs facing a bench rim protector early in his career? Perhaps the early season success was an anomaly and he's simply regressed to the mean after scouting?
Click to expand...

It's possible, but he's had good shooting nights against good rim protectors this season. Honestly the sample size is kind of small to draw any sort of conclusions on. But based on the eye test (and I don't know if there's any stats to back this up - too lazy to look up), it seems that he's jacking up a lot more bad attempts late in the shot clock. This might be because he's handling the ball a lot more even though other teams faceguard and deny the guards. There seems to be at least one or two possessions a game where he's forced to make a play with 5 seconds left on the shot clock because he couldn't hand it off to a guard in time. That's not his game and he's going to miss most of those shots.
 
KeepOnRollin said:
I would like to see the insight expended on regarding the defensive struggles. We know the O is there from both and that seems to work great between them. However, my eyeballs say that while both suck at D it is CJ who is the one who is sucking less on that end of the court. Dame has been the trainwreck from my vantage point but I would be happy to see the data like you have laid out with Plumlee on this when you get time (down the road). If either/both could get say 25% better on the defensive end then I think you could keep them longterm. The good news is they both seem to know that they need to work on it and are taking steps to get there.
Click to expand...

I've had this conversation with a couple of different people and it really seems to come down to this RE: eye test. CJ "LOOKS" like he cares. By that I mean, if he gets caught on a screen he's scrambling to get back, grabbing, clawing, chasing- anything he can do to recover. Couple that with CJ gambling a bit more and poking a few more steals away and VOILA?! you've got what looks to be solid defense, coupled with effort- what more could you want? Meanwhile, we've all seen Dame get hung on a screen and give the IDAF look and become a bystander the rest of the play. I HATE that, but I can almost understand it. That sounds weird I know, but I'll go more into that later. What I've seen in the past week against some of the most dynamic PGs in the league- and some of the best screen setters, Gasol & Randolph, Jordan, Bogut & Green, Adams & Kanter- Dame has been unbelievably good about not getting caught and not trailing/chasing the play from behind- but instead moving before the pick is there to 1) offset the effectiveness of the pick 2) attempt to draw an offensive foul (which he did 3 times in the course of 4 games- that makes a difference!)

Beyond that- the metrics have Dame improving in the PnR game every year- although his first 2 years were some of the worst defense I've ever seen from a All Star level guard. As for CJ- he has the skills necessary to be at least a net even defender. His issues stem from overextending on rotations, going under screens when he should go over, and getting caught up in off ball action and sealed on the backside of a play.

Does that make sense?
 
Dan Marang said:
. As for CJ- he has the skills necessary to be at least a net even defender. His issues stem from overextending on rotations, going under screens when he should go over, and getting caught up in off ball action and sealed on the backside of a play.

Does that make sense?
Click to expand...
Good call. His length and wingspan compensate a bit for his height issues. And besides, what SGs in the league these days can actually post up anyway? His deficiencies due to size can easily be mitigated with a strong wing defender and rim protector. His issues rather come from gambling and confusion -- things that are easily correctable with more experience and accountability from the coach.
 
Dan Marang said:
I've had this conversation with a couple of different people and it really seems to come down to this RE: eye test. CJ "LOOKS" like he cares. By that I mean, if he gets caught on a screen he's scrambling to get back, grabbing, clawing, chasing- anything he can do to recover. Couple that with CJ gambling a bit more and poking a few more steals away and VOILA?! you've got what looks to be solid defense, coupled with effort- what more could you want? Meanwhile, we've all seen Dame get hung on a screen and give the IDAF look and become a bystander the rest of the play. I HATE that, but I can almost understand it. That sounds weird I know, but I'll go more into that later. What I've seen in the past week against some of the most dynamic PGs in the league- and some of the best screen setters, Gasol & Randolph, Jordan, Bogut & Green, Adams & Kanter- Dame has been unbelievably good about not getting caught and not trailing/chasing the play from behind- but instead moving before the pick is there to 1) offset the effectiveness of the pick 2) attempt to draw an offensive foul (which he did 3 times in the course of 4 games- that makes a difference!)

Beyond that- the metrics have Dame improving in the PnR game every year- although his first 2 years were some of the worst defense I've ever seen from a All Star level guard. As for CJ- he has the skills necessary to be at least a net even defender. His issues stem from overextending on rotations, going under screens when he should go over, and getting caught up in off ball action and sealed on the backside of a play.

Does that make sense?
Click to expand...

I don't know... I agree with most of what you said. However, from (again) the eye test... I see Dame fighting harder through screens this year. I do see some of the IDGAF at times, but less than years past.
 
B-Roy said:
One thing about Mason's shooting though. I'm wondering if he's just going through an abnormal slump finishing at the rim. He was quite good earlier in the year but has taken a nosedive since.

He's shooting 50.8% on the year. Acceptable, but kind of confusing as he shot 57% and 66% the two years prior on roughly the same usage and shots/36. Naturally, you wouldn't want to extrapolate P/36 shooting numbers as taking more shots usually tanks your efficiency, but he only took .7 less actual shots per game last year while shooting 57%.

We know his shot chart is pretty much the same since he's been in the league. That is, he shoots at the rim and finishes putbacks. He's getting the same kind of shots, I'm more inclined to believe he's just going through a slump or is having an extended period of terrible luck at the rim.
Click to expand...

Plumlee's Usage rate is down nearly 2 points from last year- if anything one would expect his % to actually go up. He's shooting a 0.7 shots more per game in 5+ additional mins. One thing to consider here that isn't exactly in Plumlee's favor- he's currently Top 10 in FBP for guys 6'10" and taller. So he's getting points on the break unopposed on a fairly decent rate - (a full quarter of his PITP are from the FB!) -yet his fg% is suffering. (CHART)

I would be inclined to say that he's constantly matching up w/front line centers as opposed to the back ups around the league play an integral part in his efficiency falling. Which is why I lean towards him being a bench player beyond this season.
 
B-Roy said:
It's possible, but he's had good shooting nights against good rim protectors this season. Honestly the sample size is kind of small to draw any sort of conclusions on. But based on the eye test (and I don't know if there's any stats to back this up - too lazy to look up), it seems that he's jacking up a lot more bad attempts late in the shot clock. This might be because he's handling the ball a lot more even though other teams faceguard and deny the guards. There seems to be at least one or two possessions a game where he's forced to make a play with 5 seconds left on the shot clock because he couldn't hand it off to a guard in time. That's not his game and he's going to miss most of those shots.
Click to expand...

You know- you gave me something to look at a bit further. I've made a note to look at late clock situations to see who's getting the bulk of the "here- YOU shoot it!" looks... that can definitely skew some percentages if there's enough of them out there.
 
Dear Mr. Marang -

Your posts are outstanding and we are definitely glad to have you here!!! However, we've all heard the phrase lies, damn lies, and statistics. As an analyst you should know this better than anyone. We all want to see the analysis and statistics that say we're going to win the championship. Please do those next!

:cheers:
 
Dan Marang said:
This is something I'm taking my sweet time on. The Lillard/McCollum dynamic is hard to examine from any kind of historical perspective b/c there's really not a lot to point to. The first thing I think of off hand is Steph Curry/Monta Ellis- however Ellis' game is so vastly different from CJ's that the parallels are hard to draw.

I will say this- on the offensive side of the floor- they overlap with the ability to create off the bounce but in different ways; Dame hesitation/step back, CJ crossover/hesitation/fade- and they can both knock down 3s- however CJ is MUCH better in the midrange. Not only knocking down the shot but his ability to square up while putting his defender off balance- much like Westbrook does- and that's incredibly valuable b/c the Blazers don't have many guys who can hit that on this roster. This however is countered by CJ's terrible finishing ability inside. Much of the differences between CJ/Dame lie inside- Lillard goes to the hole more often and finishes better (although still struggles) and thus draws more free throws. CJ's drive to the rim rate is much lower, he finishes at an even lower rate, and draws even less free throws. All of those need to start trending upwards otherwise teams will start pushing him off his spots in the midrange.

Where I'm a bit worried about the two of them going forward is on defense. On offense they're different enough that they can not only co-exist but thrive. However, the reverse is true on the other end of the court. Lillard has made some pretty sizable growth this year- even more so to the eye test the past week- on the defensive end. CJ, is a complete train wreck in the PnR. In isolation. And in the post. He shows up in a negative light just as bad or worse than Plumlee. Unless the Blazers some how manage to sign AD or draft a Gobert- there's no amount of backline defense to cover that much ineptitude from the guards.

I've kind of given away how I feel about them both here- but I'm putting together a much deeper, numbers based argument to support/deny any claims or ideas I may currently have about them today and going forward. I think there's lots of room for hope and optimism, however I feel that there's some serious gaps that need to be addressed otherwise this experiment will be over with rather quickly.
Click to expand...

That is completely 100% true. Ellis and CJ's game are so different that imo they're not even comparable players. The big thing that stands out to me is Ellis is a Career 31% 3point shooter. With the offense Golden State runs that just wasn't going to cut it. Also especially early in his career Ellis needed the ball to be effective. I'd argue that's the biggest reason why the Warriors didn't believe Ellis was a good pairing with Curry more than the defensive issues Ellis had.
With CJ's ability to shoot the basketball at a 39% clip from deep so far, means he can play off the ball much easier than Ellis ever could.
I just don't believe Curry/Ellis and Lillard/CJ are comparable at all.
 
One question...would you consider adding the G to the end of the first name....I like Dang Marang better..just a thought
 
BBert said:
Blazers fans love visible hustle and visible heart more than results.
(Example: Batum)
Click to expand...

Batum is an odd example to use. Most people here complained that he DIDN'T put in the effort, because he's so smooth in the way he does things.
 
I'd be interested to see how RoLo compares. I said all along that we'd be worse on D with Plumlee instead of Lopez, it would be nice if the numbers confirmed that.

(I think we're worse as a team on O as well - while I love Plumlee's passing, he can't shoot worth a damn.
 
Also remember that we gave up Rondae Hollis-Jefferson for Plumlee, and RHJ shows the potential to be one of the very best wing defenders in the league. I've never had the impression that defense figures much in Olshey's player selection criteria (RoLo excepted).
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Batum is an odd example to use. Most people here complained that he DIDN'T put in the effort, because he's so smooth in the way he does things.
Click to expand...
I think he was using a negative example. People hated Nic because he didn't give the appearance of putting forth a great deal of effort, despite numbers to the contrary (distance traveled) and actual results. Many of those same people love Aminu because he looks like he's trying hard, even though he's barely average at anything. And many of those same people want to sign Barnes to a MAX contract even though "Bad Nic" produced better than Barnes ever has.
BBert's statement is pretty spot on - image is everything! Once a reputation is created it doesn't matter whether it's actually true or not - it is GOSPEL.
 
blue9 said:
I think he was using a negative example. People hated Nic because he didn't give the appearance of putting forth a great deal of effort, despite numbers to the contrary (distance traveled) and actual results. Many of those same people love Aminu because he looks like he's trying hard, even though he's barely average at anything. And many of those same people want to sign Barnes to a MAX contract even though "Bad Nic" produced better than Barnes ever has.
BBert's statement is pretty spot on - image is everything! Once a reputation is created it doesn't matter whether it's actually true or not - it is GOSPEL.
Click to expand...

I bet if we were to go through many of the game threads last season you were one of the loudest complaining about Batum.
 
riverman said:
I don't think Plumlee has even come close to his ceiling which is a good thing. He's gotten better at the line already. Shooting coach?
Click to expand...
Always interesting on how we fans view things, my personal opinion is that Mason is at or very near his ceiling
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Batum is an odd example to use. Most people here complained that he DIDN'T put in the effort, because he's so smooth in the way he does things.
Click to expand...
That's actually what I meant. Many people tended to not appreciate his effectiveness because of his controlled and smooth demeanor. Meanwhile the average mindless bull in a china shop is revered for giving the impression they are doing something.
 
Wow, I had to read that twice and...
Im gonna read it a third time and let it sink in before I draw a conclusion and offer a thought.

Great mind fuck there Dan.. err.. I mean post!!!
 
BBert said:
That's actually what I meant. Many people tended to not appreciate his effectiveness because of his controlled and smooth demeanor. Meanwhile the average mindless bull in a china shop is revered for giving the impression they are doing something.
Click to expand...

I dunno... Aminu is wearing out a welcome fairly quickly.
 
Dan Marang said:
Plumlee's Usage rate is down nearly 2 points from last year- if anything one would expect his % to actually go up. He's shooting a 0.7 shots more per game in 5+ additional mins. One thing to consider here that isn't exactly in Plumlee's favor- he's currently Top 10 in FBP for guys 6'10" and taller. So he's getting points on the break unopposed on a fairly decent rate - (a full quarter of his PITP are from the FB!) -yet his fg% is suffering. (CHART)

I would be inclined to say that he's constantly matching up w/front line centers as opposed to the back ups around the league play an integral part in his efficiency falling. Which is why I lean towards him being a bench player beyond this season.
Click to expand...

I like Plumlee. He's got good knees so far. Better than Robin Lopez, but not a starting caliber C in this league.

He's got little range beyond 4' and his FT shooting is atrocious. Free throw, nobody guarding him. If he were Dwight Howard on O and D, the range isn't so much an issue.

I like him as a backup just fine. Hopefully we can build leads big enough that he can rest our Cotf.
 
I agree with you on Plumlee....Portland fans love these lunch-pail boy next door type players, but he's really over-rated by Portland fans.

Some are calling him the 3rd best player on the team, or a part of our future core. I think he's a good reserve, but he's not a quality starter.

I was just looking yesterday at his scoring efficiency inside. It's fallen every year he's been in the league. For shots at the rim, he went from 76% his rookie year, to 65% his 2nd, down to 60% this year, which is really bad for a big man. Especially for a guy like Mason who doesn't have an offensive game away from the hoop.

He's an undersized center, who's not really that effective being used like Lopez. Anyway, hopefully RHJ doesn't become a defensive star and make us regret this move, and I hope Olshey doesn't give Mason a stupid contract.

I'm not sure why Ed Davis isn't getting more minutes over Mason. Davis is a much better finisher and rebounder. And when you look at those pick and roll defense stats, look who is one of the best (Ed Davis).
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Also remember that we gave up Rondae Hollis-Jefferson for Plumlee, and RHJ shows the potential to be one of the very best wing defenders in the league. I've never had the impression that defense figures much in Olshey's player selection criteria (RoLo excepted).
Click to expand...

He was actually #1 in DRPM for all SG's before his injury.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
First game thread I went to from last season,
Click to expand...
Oh the ironing! That was a tongue-in-cheek post about dumb people who thought that our 4th/5th option on offense was the reason for our losses rather than the 1st option who often shot just as poorly as our 4th/5th option.

I liked Nic quite a lot - 2nd or 3rd favorite player, depending on the day. I don't know that I ever complained about him, unless you count being able to admit his weaknesses as complaining. Dame, Wes, and Nic were probably the only players I didn't complain about.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Dan Marang
Beyond Blazers Podcast/Profile: Meyers Leonard - Week 2 discussion topic
2
Replies
54
Views
6K
riverman
riverman
Dan Marang
Beyond Blazers Podcast- w/620 AM's Bunker & Danforth
2
Replies
30
Views
6K
Strenuus
Strenuus
SlyPokerDog
MASON PLUMLEE WOULD PREFER THAT YOU NOT SPRAY PAINT HIS CAR
Replies
18
Views
3K
rasheedfan2005
rasheedfan2005
Natebishop3
By Ben Golliver (Nurkic Edition)
2
Replies
40
Views
2K
Elton
Elton
KeepOnRollin
Forum Game Over/Under Playoffs #5 Clippers
Replies
19
Views
4K
SlyPokerDog
SlyPokerDog

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top