Blazers don't need another "star"

[0-Our!]

... Draymond is a role player. The best one in the league, but still a role player.

I don't mean to diminish... players importance just by calling them role players. They are important too. I'm just saying that they're not the most important part of a team in todays NBA.

I was w/ u until u said ^. Draymond is EASILY THE most important part of the GS; w/o him (even w/ Steph & Klay playing every game; don't get me wrong, these guys r phenomenal BUT they're not as important to GS as Draymond is), GS would have dropped quite a few games & they'd b nowhere near chasing & making history/records. People that watch GS games (I've seen almost all), coaches, GS players, & analysts will tell u Draymond is THE most important Warrior (he's what Wes was for us & a bit more even).

 

[Nikolokolus]

And let's not discount Olshey's ability to identify the right players to draft. Someone posted an article a while back that illustrated that Olshey has a much better track record with drafting than the average GM.

Right. None of this exists in a vacuum. If I thought Neil Olshey was a lousy talent evaluator, then I'd be pretty non-plussed about the lottery. I get why he took a flier on Meyers Lemon, because he has rare size and raw athleticism and picking bigs is always a bit of a crapshoot, but Damian, CJ, and Crabbe all point to the conclusion that he might just have an eye for talent.

No matter which route is chosen (draft, free agency, or trades) all of them are low probability avenues of success. for Portland, the draft just happens to be the least bad.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

An article that discusses the odds of drafting impact players from 2014
http://www.crabdribbles.com/nba-draft-over-the-last-15-years-a-statistical-overview/

You have a better chance of drafting an impact player in the 2nd round of a Good Draft than in the non-lotto first round of a bad draft. As I recall, this summer's draft is a Bad Draft. Do we have a second rounder this summer? If so, we're more likely to find an impact player than if we had a first rounder this year and made the playoffs.

It's an odd bit of half-logic; obviously we're twice as likely to find an impact player in the lotto of next summer's draft than in the rest of the draft. BUT! if we're going to make the playoffs anyway, and have a second rounder, not having a late first rounder is kind of okay because it was a bit useless anyway (yeah it raises your chances of finding an impact player some).

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I was w/ u until u said ^. Draymond is EASILY THE most important part of the GS; w/o him (even w/ Steph & Klay playing every game; don't get me wrong, these guys r phenomenal BUT they're not as important to GS as Draymond is), GS would have dropped quite a few games & they'd b nowhere near chasing & making history/records. People that watch GS games (I've seen almost all), coaches, GS players, & analysts will tell u Draymond is THE most important Warrior (he's what Wes was for us & a bit more even).

Did Green play that one game Curry didn't when the Warriors got their asses handed to them, or did he sit out? I'm inclined to think the guy scoring nearly a point a minute is more important to the final score than Green.

 

[Nikolokolus]

You have a better chance of drafting an impact player in the 2nd round of a Good Draft than in the non-lotto first round of a bad draft. As I recall, this summer's draft is a Bad Draft. Do we have a second rounder this summer? If so, we're more likely to find an impact player than if we had a first rounder this year and made the playoffs.

It's an odd bit of half-logic; obviously we're twice as likely to find an impact player in the lotto of next summer's draft than in the rest of the draft. BUT! if we're going to make the playoffs anyway, and have a second rounder, not having a late first rounder is kind of okay because it was a bit useless anyway (yeah it raises your chances of finding an impact player some).

You're assuming that every GM has equal odds of identifying and drafting an impact player. I'd take my chances with Neil

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Did Green play that one game Curry didn't when the Warriors got their asses handed to them, or did he sit out? I'm inclined to think the guy scoring nearly a point a minute is more important to the final score than Green.

That said, Green IS their second star (20 PER); Klay is the role player (17.8 PER). Maybe we do need a second star if CJ stays at that 18 PER range; that's key role player territory, not Second Star territory. But I'd give CJ a year or two more to grow.

 

[e_blazer]

The Warriors are winning with a top-three that were drafted 7 (Curry), 11 (Thompson), and 35 (Green). Curry was seen by many GMs as too skinny and fragile to be worth a top lottery pick, but the Warriors hit a home run on him. Thompson was a solid mid-range pick and again the Warriors beat the odds. Green was off-the-charts lucky to turn out to be the player he is. To build the killer squad that they have, they've been able to pull together a bunch of key supporting players, some of whom were lottery picks but are now on the back side of their careers.

The Blazers are working with a big-2 that were a 6 pick (Dame) and a 10 pick (CJ). I'd say that Olshey hit home runs with both. We could really use one of our other guys to move up to a Green level of impact or find that guy through the draft, trade or free agency. We could still end up with a lottery pick this season, but it's likely to be a late one if we do get it. It will take some major luck for that to turn out to be an impact player. Once the core is established, Olshey can use it to entice some of the vets like Golden State has acquired. I don't think that there's a single formula to getting to a championship contender. I do think that it takes smarts, and Olshey has that in spades, and it takes a ton of luck.

 

[0-Our!]

Did Green play that one game Curry didn't when the Warriors got their asses handed to them, or did he sit out? I'm inclined to think the guy scoring nearly a point a minute is more important to the final score than Green.

Are u talking about the Dal or Mil game? Green played in both. Steph played in the Mil game & it was 1 of his worst of the yr. (still scored 28 though); Steph's unusual # of misses definitely contributed to this loss. I can see how u are "inclined to think the guy scoring nearly a point a minute is more important to the final score than Green," that's what someone would 1st jump to; however, he didn't do that in the Mil game (he scored .8 points per minute this day). W/ Green & GS, you have to watch the games to get the full picture of how important he is to the team; Steph's affect is much more/easier to see in the gaudy stats & Green's impact is partially in the league leading triple-doubles; w/ Green, it's more what doesn't register in the stats. To b clear, I'm not saying Green is the better player/more talented (@ least not in the common metrics way), he IS however more important to GS.

ps the only weakness GS has on any kind of a regular basis is being a little too careless w/ the ball, they play @ a pretty fast pace sometimes & when they turn it over, they keep playing fast & turn it over fast also (their TOs seem to come in bunches); they've acknowledged they need to work on this (u really can't fault them much on this because all teams turn it over like this or in different ways/clips but w/ GS it's more noticeable because most of what they do is so good).

 

[Draco]

Green kind of reminds me of Shawn Marion with the Nash Suns; he gives them the advantages of going small but still the benefits of a big power player. Excellent defensive versatility. Very rare to find a player that can provide those different dimensions.

 

[Draco]

I was w/ u until u said ^. Draymond is EASILY THE most important part of the GS; w/o him (even w/ Steph & Klay playing every game; don't get me wrong, these guys r phenomenal BUT they're not as important to GS as Draymond is), GS would have dropped quite a few games & they'd b nowhere near chasing & making history/records. People that watch GS games (I've seen almost all), coaches, GS players, & analysts will tell u Draymond is THE most important Warrior (he's what Wes was for us & a bit more even).

Without Curry there is no universe where Golden State is winning a title.

Without Draymond could they play with Ezeli at the 5, or more Barnes and Iggy small ball and still win a title? I doubt it; but there is a bit of a chance.

Both are critical to success. Draymond might result in a more unique style of play than we've ever seen. I'd still rate Curry a tad higher because the team would be better with him if you had to choose between the two of them.

 

[0-Our!]

Without Curry there is no universe where Golden State is winning a title.

Without Draymond could they play with Ezeli at the 5, or more Barnes and Iggy small ball and still win a title? I doubt it; but there is a bit of a chance.

Both are critical to success. Draymond might result in a more unique style of play than we've ever seen.

I mostly agree I believe you need both to win a title.

W/ Steph (+ that Klay guy & others) w/o Green, a very good team that makes the playoffs.

W/ Green (+ that Klay guy & others) w/o Steph, a very good team that makes the playoffs that wins a few more games.

W/ both (+ that Klay guy & others)... a practically unstoppable juggernaut that destroys just about everything in it's path

ps Green's existence helps Steph in getting his stats/lets Steph b Steph & a bit vise versa

 

[KingSpeed]

It should be noted that Golden State went from being knocked out in the first round to champs in one year without adding a star. Their roster was basically the same. Maybe we can grow from within like they did.

 

[Draco]

It should be noted that Golden State went from being knocked out in the first round to champs in one year without adding a star. Their roster was basically the same. Maybe we can grow from within like they did.

They were good enough to win a playoff round that first year; had an injury to Bogut and Ezeli; Draymond wasn't in the rotation yet. Yeah they had internal improvement; but they also had better health; and a much better coach. I don't think a coaching change will help as much with us because Stotts is much better than Mark Jackson. We have been very healthy this year on average we will have worse health.

We aren't playing near as well as that Golden State team that lost in the first round. But we might have more room to improve from within with a younger roster than they had. We have more salary flexibility to add a piece. I like our position but of course its so unlikely to follow the historical improvements a once in a decade team was able to make.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

It should be noted that Golden State went from being knocked out in the first round to champs in one year without adding a star. Their roster was basically the same. Maybe we can grow from within like they did.

If Dame becomes an MVP-caliber player like Curry did, then sure.

 

[Draco]

I mostly agree I believe you need both to win a title.

W/ Steph (+ that Klay guy & others) w/o Green, a very good team that makes the playoffs.

W/ Green (+ that Klay guy & others) w/o Steph, a very good team that makes the playoffs that wins a few more games.

W/ both (+ that Klay guy & others)... a practically unstoppable juggernaut that destroys just about everything in it's path

ps Green's existence helps Steph in getting his stats/lets Steph b Steph & a bit vise versa

I think Steph helps Green more than Green helps Steph. Green is so lethal creating offense with the ball because the defense is loading up on Steph. We kind of run similar stuff with Plumlee at the top of the key creating when Dame gets trapped. Its much easier to create offense when its basically 4 on 3. They are also constantly running Curry off baseline screens and the whole defense is watching him taking their eyes off Green. Green would still be productive but nothing like we see now. He'd be a fine player.

Steph is accomplishing feats we've never seen in the history of basketball. Green is unique but we have seen other unique versatile players such as Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion have similar beneficial impacts to title winning teams. Green is better than them; but a somewhat similar role. LeBron is much better than Green and can do everything Green can do on offense, defense, with the ball and without it. You can't find a player to say that about with Steph.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I wonder if the top half of the lottery is that much better seeing that all the top players tend to be home run potential picks. (i.e D'Angelo Russell, Embiid) Most are based on potential and one year of college.

Lets look at the top 5 picks of the last 6 drafts. That is 30 top players. I count about 8 who could be allstars. Not bad, but zero of those 30 are elite enough that it guarantees a bad team to be a contender. Again I get that you need to build through the draft, but it sure does not convince me we would be better off tanking for multiple years, because the only way to assure you are at the top of the draft for numerous years is if you move your best players. (i.e Dame) I think Vonleh has about the same chance of being a potential all star than the top 5 in the last 6 drafts. Which is not really saying much.


2015
Towns,
Russell
Okafor
Porzingis
Hezanja


2014
1. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas Cleveland
2. Jabari Parker, Duke Milwaukee
3. Joel Embiid#, Kansas Philadelphia
4. Aaron Gordon, Arizona Orlando
5. Dante Exum

2013

Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len

2012

1 NOH Anthony Davis University of Kentucky
2 CHA Michael Kidd-Gilchrist University of Kentucky
3 WAS Bradley Beal University of Florida
4 CLE Dion Waiters Syracuse University
5 SAC Thomas Robinson University of Kansas

2011

1 CLE Kyrie Irving Duke
2 MIN Derrick Williams Arizona
3 UTA Enes Kanter Turkey
4 CLE Tristan Thompson Texas
5 TOR Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania

2010
1 WAS John Wall Kentucky
2 PHI Evan Turner Ohio State
3 NJN Derrick Favors Georgia Tech
4 MIN Wesley Johnson Syracuse
5 SAC DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky

 

[Scalma]

Yes we do.

No we dont

 

[BonesJones]

No we dont

To win a championship? Yes we do.

 

[e_blazer]

To win a championship, the Blazers need a front court All-Star. If Vonleh can become that player, then I'd agree that the Blazers are set. He's certainly made strides this year, and his defense was great last night, but he's still got a lot of growing to do.

 

[andalusian]

And this is why you don't build a team around a PF - PFs can't carry teams.

Tim Duncan to the phone. Phone call for Tim Duncan.