Blazers Roster / Salary Cap 2018-19

[42N8Bounce]

With 14 of the 15 roster spots accounted for this season, it's about time we look ahead to see how next year's roster might fit together.

Being over the tax level this year, and most likely next year, the Blazers will only have a few options:
- Match our restricted FAs
- Bird rights to re-sign unrestricted FAs
- Use our mid-level exception ('mini'-mid level if we're $6M over Tax level/Apron ~$5,291,918)
x Use bi-annual exception (not available if we're $6M over Tax level/Apron)
- add players on the rookie scale
- sign min-salary players.
- $12.9M player trade exception from Crabbe trade (cannot be used to sign players).

Here's a look at our 2018-19 Salaries:

Guaranteed:
Dame, $27,977,689
CJ, $25,759,766
Turner, $17,868,852
Harkless, $10,837,079
Leonard, $10,595,506
Aminu, $6,957,105
Collins, $3,628,920
Swanigan, $1,740,000
Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005
Ezeli (stretched), $333,333
Nicholson (stretched), $2,844,430
Total Guaranteed: $110,526,685
(estimated CAP=$101,000,000)

Qualifying Offers (restricted Free Agents):
Vonleh, $4,749,591
Nurk, $4,140,964 (max salary approximately $23,673,679)
Napier, $3,452,308
Connaughton, $1,839,228
Briscoe, $1,551,118 (contingent on making the 2017-18 roster)

Non-Guaranteed:
Layman, $1,544,951

Free-Agents (unrestricted):
Davis (Blazers hold Bird rights - can go over the CAP to re-sign up to player max salary.)
Morrow (If he makes the roster in 2017-18, Blazers will hold his Non-Bird exception allowing them to re-sign him up to 120% of his previous salary).
Goodwin (If he makes the roster in 2017-18, Blazers will hold his Non-Bird exception allowing them to re-sign him up to 120% of his previous salary).

8 spots are guaranteed + 1 additional spot is a lock - Nurk. That leave 6 roster spots open. One will probably be used on our First round draft choice (Blazers currently do not have a 2nd round 2018 draft choice.).

How will the 5 remaining roster spots be filled? Resign Davis? Offer QO to Vonleh? Will Nurk get the max? Keep in mind that if Nurk get the max, the Blazers will be approximately $42M over the CAP (filling out the roster with minimum salaries), and $21M over the Luxury tax level, resulting in a tax bill of approximately $50M. Wow! That would be unheard of. Will Paul Allen be willing to pay that bill to keep this core together?

 

[THE HCP]

Great work on this man. I get so lost when it comes to all this. You should meet Joe Cronin.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Hard to predict the future when the GM is constantly looking for a consolidation trade.
Here's my take:

Core (won't be moved):
Big 3, Collins, Swanigan

Main Guys (will be moved in right deal):
Harkless
Aminu
Napier

Secondary Guys (Would be happy to move):
Turner
Vonleh
Davis

Throwins:
Pat C.
Layman

Others (would be thrilled to move):
Leonard

If they can't make a trade...
Lowball Davis, QO Vonleh, Sign Nurk for $20 mil.

You didn't mention using our exception from the Crabbe trade, which will be around for a while.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Hard to predict the future when the GM is constantly looking for a consolidation trade.
Here's my take:

Core (won't be moved):
Big 3, Collins, Swanigan

Main Guys (will be moved in right deal):
Harkless
Aminu
Napier

Secondary Guys (Would be happy to move):
Turner
Vonleh
Davis

Throwins:
Pat C.
Layman

Others (would be thrilled to move):
Leonard

If they can't make a trade...
Lowball Davis, QO Vonleh, Sign Nurk for $20 mil.

You didn't mention using our exception from the Crabbe trade, which will be around for a while.

Great point. The Blazers have that $12.9M trade exception that can be used to bring in salary without sending out salary. It's good for up to a year. I'll edit the main post to include that exception.

 

[AFully22]

I know this might not be the sexiest of topics but I’ve been trying to find a way to either A. Get rid of enough salary to be able to sign a difference making SF or B. Use some of the players on our roster to trade for a difference making SF and I just don’t see how it could be done before the 2020 season without sending out a shit ton of first rd picks and losing almost all of our depth.

What’s the answer here? This team is good as constructed but still probably AT LEAST one proven player at the 3 away from true contention, even with a promising Collins and Swanigan.

Do we have to hope we can get lucky and/or move up in the draft? Does moving ET, Meyers, and Aminu clear enough space to be able to make a real offer to, say, KCP or Covington? Would that even be worth it? I’m finding it hard to see a way to obtain that missing piece given our salary situation going forward and the pieces we have to use in trades.

 

[BonesJones]

I know this might not be the sexiest of topics but I’ve been trying to find a way to either A. Get rid of enough salary to be able to sign a difference making SF or B. Use some of the players on our roster to trade for a difference making SF and I just don’t see how it could be done before the 2020 season without sending out a shit ton of first rd picks and losing almost all of our depth.

What’s the answer here? This team is good as constructed but still probably AT LEAST one proven player at the 3 away from true contention, even with a promising Collins and Swanigan.

Do we have to hope we can get lucky and/or move up in the draft? Does moving ET, Meyers, and Aminu clear enough space to be able to make a real offer to, say, KCP or Covington? Would that even be worth it? I’m finding it hard to see a way to obtain that missing piece given our salary situation going forward and the pieces we have to use in trades.

The answer is Jae Crowder (If Lebron leaves, maybe even if he stays).

 

[AFully22]

The answer is Jae Crowder (If Lebron leaves, maybe even if he stays).

I like Crowder, but you’re saying that a starting 5 of Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk is a contender?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I like Crowder, but you’re saying that a starting 5 of Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk is a contender?

Probably. How would you compare
Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk
to
Porter, Drexler, Kersey, Buck, Duck?

 

[AFully22]

Probably. How would you compare
Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk
to
Porter, Drexler, Kersey, Buck, Duck?

I would take that Drexler led Blazer team 10 out of 10 times.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I would take that Drexler led Blazer team 10 out of 10 times.

Can you break down why you think so positionally?

 

[BrunoSOC]

leonard will not make the roster for 18-19

 

[BonesJones]

I like Crowder, but you’re saying that a starting 5 of Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk is a contender?

If our frontcourt fulfills its vast potential and we have the right bench, we could contend for a 2 seed.

 

[AFully22]

Can you break down why you think so positionally?

Drexler was a top 5 player in the league and the rest of the roster was a much better fit around him then what we have with a Dame and C.J. led team. Just my opinion though.

I see Crowder as a great 5th piece to a team with 4 legit all star level talents, not the 4th piece to a team with 2.5 all star level talents.

 

[42N8Bounce]

leonard will not make the roster for 18-19

Unfortunately, at least at this point, Leonard is signed thru the 2019-20 season.

What does Stotts think about that?

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

Hard to speculate that far out since you never know which GM covets the players we have. Also do not know PA's willingness to pay the tax on a mediocre team. Only thing I see that is almost assured is that Vonleh will not be here. With Swanigan in the mix, we cannot afford to give him much. Napier has been ok as a third PG but do not see us paying much for that roster spot. Also doubt project Pat lasts the rest of the year.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm not sure how the cap holds figure into the LT calculations.

I think the salary data here are reputable:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/por/



We've been going under the assumption we're just ~$3.5M over the Tax, but Yahoo! says we're $21M over.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I'm not sure how the cap holds figure into the LT calculations.

I think the salary data here are reputable:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/por/

View attachment 16811

We've been going under the assumption we're just ~$3.5M over the Tax, but Yahoo! says we're $21M over.

By my current calculations (2017/18) -
Dame, $26,153,057
CJ, $23,962,573
Turner, $17,131,148
Harkless, $10,162,922
Leonard, $9,904,494
Aminu, $7,319,035
Collins, $3057,240
Swanigan, $1,465,920
Davis, $6,352,531
Vonleh, $3,505,233
Nurk, $2,947,305
Napier, $3,361,360
Pat, $1,471,382
Layman, $1,312,611
Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005
Ezeli (stretched), $333,333
Nichols (stretched), $2,844,430
Total = $122,268,579

CAP = $99,093,000 (The Blazers are approximately $23,175,579 over the CAP.)
Tax Level = $119,266,000 (The Blazers are approximately $3,002,579 over the Tax Level.)

 

[42N8Bounce]

I'm not sure how the cap holds figure into the LT calculations.

I think the salary data here are reputable:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/por/

View attachment 16811

We've been going under the assumption we're just ~$3.5M over the Tax, but Yahoo! says we're $21M over.

To answer your question about how cap holds figure in (they don't):

When determining the amount of tax a team owes, the league uses its team salary (see question number 13) on the date of its last regular season game (i.e., if a player is traded away before the end of the season, then none of his salary is taxed), with the following adjustments:

• Cap holds and exceptions are ignored.
• Any "unlikely bonuses" (see question number 74) that were actually earned are added to the team salary.
• Any "likely bonuses" (see question number 74) that were not earned are subtracted from the team salary.
• Any trade bonuses (see question number 99) for players received in trade after the last regular season game are added to the team salary. This amount may be pro-rated -- see question number 100 for details.
• Any amounts from settlements of grievances are added to the team salary.
• For players who signed as free agents (i.e., not draft picks) under the current CBA, and make less than the two-year minimum salary, the minimum salary for a two-year veteran is used in place of their actual salary.2
• For minimum salary players whose salary is partially paid by the league (see question number 22) only the amount paid by the team (the two-year minimum salary) is taxed.

 

[Denny Crane]

FWIW, I think the Yahoo! salary data is from Woj.

 

[Mediocre Man]

2018 will be average team, early playoff departure, all over again

 

[Optimistic Bob]

I think they should keep Aminu, Davis and Swanigan. Moving Leonard, Harkless and Napier seems to me the best way to drop the salary total.

Changed my mind. I think Napier is pretty valuable and should stay

 

[42N8Bounce]

I just posted this in another thread, but thought it fit better here -

Just for fun, I calculated the dollars per minute the Blazers are paying each player. With players like Dame and CJ getting the max, I assumed they'd be at the top of the list. Meyers couldn't be 'that' over paid.....



Well, yes. Meyers is 'that' over paid. Wow.

The best 'value' is no surprise - Connaughton, followed closely by Nurk.

 

[Mediocre Man]

While I don't hate Collins, I find it funny the top two are both WABC

 

[42N8Bounce]

While I don't hate Collins, I find it funny the top two are both WABC

Here's an update to the $/Minute calculation -



With his surge in playing time, Collins has moved to the 'bargain' level.

Connaughton, Nurkic, and Napier are all excellent values. Unfortunately, they're all free agents this summer. Since they're all restricted free-agents, Olshey has the option to bring them all back if he chooses. I say bring them all back. Let's hope we can get them at a good value.

 

[kjironman1]

Actually this whole thing should maybe be updated to exclude Vonleh?

 

[tykendo]

I just posted this in another thread, but thought it fit better here -

Just for fun, I calculated the dollars per minute the Blazers are paying each player. With players like Dame and CJ getting the max, I assumed they'd be at the top of the list. Meyers couldn't be 'that' over paid.....

View attachment 17189

Well, yes. Meyers is 'that' over paid. Wow.

The best 'value' is no surprise - Connaughton, followed closely by Nurk.

And Dame still is a bargain at that number compared to some of the other great players in the league.

 

[Lanny]

leonard will not make the roster for 18-19

That would be a dream come true.

 

[Storyteller2]

Here's what I've got for next year:

 

[lawai'a]

Here's what I've got for next year:

that #-----$279,000,000 in committed salaries...... over 1/4 billion $'s...... mind boggling considering its only a game to me. they could roll out the washigton generals in the blazers' pinwheel and i would still be a fan though.

 

[Storyteller2]

Updated with the most recent signings.