Blazers sans Batum

[Denny Crane]

Batum takes up cap space before he's signed. They have the cap hold rules to prevent teams from being able to defer signing their own RFA to have the cap space his contract would otherwise consume.

 

[craigehlo]

I don't care if he gets paid 10 million, it's not like his bump in salary is going to keep the blazers from signing deron williams.

There are WAY too many needs on this team to tie up so much salary on Batum. This team needs a new backcourt in the worst way and the money would be better spent gong after Dragic and Eric Gordon IMHO.

On the plus side, I think Batum's stock dropped a bit in the last couple of months as the Blazers tanked.

 

[e_blazer]

Batum takes up cap space before he's signed. They have the cap hold rules to prevent teams from being able to defer signing their own RFA to have the cap space his contract would otherwise consume.

True, but Nic's cap hold is about $5.4M and, since he'll likely command a new salary in the $8-$10M range, the Blazers still have more money to spend on UFAs by deferring signing him than they would if they signed him first.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I think that would be incredible, but I doubt TOR would give up their #8 for Batum. But even getting Kleiza in a Batum S&T deal would be pretty decent.

Well, if they valued him so highly that we didn't want to match, maybe they would. i guess one problem with a S&T would be that Batum would have to agree... (But they do speak a lot of French in Canada!)

 

[BBert]

The worst thing about matching a $10mil offer to Batum would be that he would immediately become this board's new whipping boy. The bitching and sniping would be unbearable.

 

[alex42083]

It's crazy to think Nicolas was once rumored as the centerpiece for CP3 and now we'd be willing to give him up for a difference for $2-2.5 mil. Maybe a new coach and new style will finally see him blossom. I'd hate to lose him.

 

[BBert]

If we can wait until after our other pieces are in place, I would match any offer. No one is going to give him anything close to the max, for crying out loud. No need to worry about it now. My guess is we'll get him for the $8-9mil per year he supposedly wanted in the first place. Although it's possible his value may have dropped.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

That said, the Blazers would be fools to pay him several million dollars over his "real" value (measured in his ability to generate wins, not what the market will bear).

this article at business insider places the value of a winshare at 1.47 million dollars, and last year batum accrued 4.8 winshares in 59 games. that extrapolated over 82 games would be 6.67 winshares (oddly enough, batum accrued 6.6 winshares in 2010/11 in 80 games)

soooo..... it stands to reason then that batum has already been worth roughly 10 million dollars production wise over each of the last two seasons (6.6 winshares *1.47 million per winshare = 9.7 million)...then on top of that you are also likely paying a premium for his potential due to his age, so 11 or 12 million a year seems like a reasonable offer sabermetrically speaking

if he gets that offer remains to be seen

 

[PtldPlatypus]

this article at business insider places the value of a winshare at 1.47 million dollars

So a 50-win team is supposed to cost $73.5M, despite a $58M salary cap?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

umm, yes?

what people make hardly ever coincides with their actual worth

i didnt do the math, if you have a better figure im all ears

 

[jlprk]

this article at business insider

From that:

Given how unlikely it is to pick up a grossly overpaid first-round pick -- Hasheem Thabeet was the most overpaid player on a rookie deal outside of inactive players like Greg Oden; Thabeet was overpaid by $4.3 million -- the lesson of this data is that it typically makes no sense to trade a draft pick.

 

[jlprk]

That article is a reprint of this October article, based on 2010-11 salaries and cap before the new CBA.

http://www.sbnation.com/2011/10/17/2495288/nba-superstars-underpaid-rookie-scale-hook

 

[Pinwheel1]

Batum isn't a star and doesn't deserve more than the contract Arron Afflalo got from Denver ($7.5 mil). If the Raptors want to offer more so they can build a team around overpaid role players, then I'd let him walk. I would target a SF via trade or draft since free agent options stink for the SF spot this summer.

Who do we have that we can trade for a SF? I agree 8 mill is about the max he deserves, but if we don't intend to match then that becomes the 4th position we need to draft for. Sounds like we need to match and move him next year. I see no other option unless our pick ends up 3.

 

[jlprk]

Yes, sign and trade is better than losing him for nothing unless...1) we have to take on another overpaid player just to get rid of Batum or...2) the couple of mill we overpay him is the difference in preventing us from signing somebody we otherwise would have signed this summer. I mean if we come within a small margin of getting someone just because we overpay Batum by that much, THEN we should have let Batum go for nothing.

 

[magnifier661]

Let him go, and draft Quincy Miller or Terrance Jones. Although, when Deron Williams re-signs with Brooklyn, Portland would be able to match anything Toronto throws out there.

Deron Williams is a pipe dream, IMO, and that opens up bringing back Hickson, Batum, and signing a Goran Dragic, plus hopefully two lottery picks.

Portland still can match anything Toronto has to offer because they hold his "Bird Rights". Doesn't mean they will though.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Blazers will match any offer out there.

I don't get this OK to sign him for 8-9 but not 10. What is an extra 2 million in luxury (as long as PA doesn't care). Either way Batum will take a big chunk of the salary cap which Portland should be over after all the wheeling and dealing this off season. So who cares if Batum is over paid a couple million a year, how does that hurt a team over the cap?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Blazers will match any offer out there.

I don't get this OK to sign him for 8-9 but not 10. What is an extra 2 million in luxury (as long as PA doesn't care). Either way Batum will take a big chunk of the salary cap which Portland should be over after all the wheeling and dealing this off season. So who cares if Batum is over paid a couple million a year, how does that hurt a team over the cap?

PA seems pretty hell bent on not going into the luxury tax again, especially since it is worse on those teams in the luxury tax area. It wouldn't surprise me to see some team overpay for Batum and see a sign and trade scenario though

 

[magnifier661]

Blazers will match any offer out there.

I don't get this OK to sign him for 8-9 but not 10. What is an extra 2 million in luxury (as long as PA doesn't care). Either way Batum will take a big chunk of the salary cap which Portland should be over after all the wheeling and dealing this off season. So who cares if Batum is over paid a couple million a year, how does that hurt a team over the cap?

10 mil isn't the problem. I'm talking 12 mil per. That's obviously way too much to sign him for, especially with the new CBA kicking in the season after. If Toronto is stupid enough to offer a contract like that, then we can let them be in cap hell.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

PA seems pretty hell bent on not going into the luxury tax again, especially since it is worse on those teams in the luxury tax area. It wouldn't surprise me to see some team overpay for Batum and see a sign and trade scenario though

If this is true, then we have lost the one huge advantage PA brings to the Blazer organization.

I don't beleive Allen can resist spending money if he thinks it will bring a championship, and luckily his passion and rose colored glasses often make their way into his decision making process.

 

[Eastoff]

this article at business insider places the value of a winshare at 1.47 million dollars, and last year batum accrued 4.8 winshares in 59 games. that extrapolated over 82 games would be 6.67 winshares (oddly enough, batum accrued 6.6 winshares in 2010/11 in 80 games)

soooo..... it stands to reason then that batum has already been worth roughly 10 million dollars production wise over each of the last two seasons (6.6 winshares *1.47 million per winshare = 9.7 million)...then on top of that you are also likely paying a premium for his potential due to his age, so 11 or 12 million a year seems like a reasonable offer sabermetrically speaking

if he gets that offer remains to be seen

Just curious, what is LMA winshare, and thus his value?

 

[magnifier661]

If this is true, then we have lost the one huge advantage PA brings to the Blazer organization.

I don't beleive Allen can resist spending money if he thinks it will bring a championship, and luckily his passion and rose colored glasses often make their way into his decision making process.

Things change when you start winning. I think Allen doesn't want to go to Luxury cap if we are just one and done in the playoffs, let alone not making the playoffs. If we can make it to the WCFs, then I suspect his pocket book would open up.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Portland still can match anything Toronto has to offer because they hold his "Bird Rights". Doesn't mean they will though.

Actually they hold right of first refusal in that scenario. Bird rights really on come into play when it comes to max contracts (1 more year and higher year over year raises).

 

[Nikolokolus]

If this is true, then we have lost the one huge advantage PA brings to the Blazer organization.

I don't beleive Allen can resist spending money if he thinks it will bring a championship, and luckily his passion and rose colored glasses often make their way into his decision making process.

I don't think this team is anywhere near competing for a championship, so if Allen is going to spend his way to one, it probably won't be until they look like they're on the cusp. In the meantime, I expect he's going to be pretty damned frugal (rightfully so) -- and there's the rub, now would be the perfect time for him to sell because of the way the team's financial commitments are structured and the fluidity in the personnel and coaching positions.

 

[e_blazer]

This may have been linked somewhere before, but there's a good analysis of the Blazers' cap situation relative to Batum over on Blazersedge:

http://www.blazersedge.com/

 

[Mediocre Man]

This may have been linked somewhere before, but there's a good analysis of the Blazers' cap situation relative to Batum over on Blazersedge:

http://www.blazersedge.com/

That is a great write up. It shows the stupidity of not getting him signed earlier, and the stupidity of thinking we have major cap space this summer.

 

[e_blazer]

That is a great write up. It shows the stupidity of not getting him signed earlier, and the stupidity of thinking we have major cap space this summer.

Uhmm, no. They have $5-$7M more in cap space now than if they had signed Nic. The amount of cap space is impacted by what other teams may offer Nic and what he does in response, but it's better to have the cap space. If they work with Nic and his agent behind the scene, they can give him the money he wants and still make use of the greater cap space to sign a better UFA. They need to work quickly, but it should be possible to pull off.

 

[Nikolokolus]

That is a great write up. It shows the stupidity of not getting him signed earlier, and the stupidity of thinking we have major cap space this summer.

I'm guessing a team does front-load the hell out of an offer to Nic and then dare the Blazers to match. In Dave's scenario Batum could represent a 12 million dollar caphold within a couple of days of the start of free agency ... Not to be a Debbie Downer (Oh what the hell, why stop now) but I'd put the odds of this happening at 99%.

 

[magnifier661]

I'm guessing a team does front-load the hell out of an offer to Nic and then dare the Blazers to match. In Dave's scenario Batum could represent a 12 million dollar caphold within a couple of days of the start of free agency ... Not to be a Debbie Downer (Oh what the hell, why stop now) but I'd put the odds of this happening at 99%.

But Batum must accept the offer right? The 3 day offer to match is only when Batum accepts the offer. If Batum wants to still play in Portland, all he has to do is accept offer sheets after we did our major free agent signing. Then we can match regardless.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Uhmm, no. They have $5-$7M more in cap space now than if they had signed Nic. The amount of cap space is impacted by what other teams may offer Nic and what he does in response, but it's better to have the cap space. If they work with Nic and his agent behind the scene, they can give him the money he wants and still make use of the greater cap space to sign a better UFA. They need to work quickly, but it should be possible to pull off.

With no GM in place and god knows who behind the scenes pulling the levers? Ummm ... maybe, but something tells me there are several competing agendas behind the scenes in upper management and being nimble seems a little unlikely.

 

[Nikolokolus]

But Batum must accept the offer right? The 3 day offer to match is only when Batum accepts the offer. If Batum wants to still play in Portland, all he has to do is accept offer sheets after we did our major free agent signing. Then we can match regardless.

Why wouldn't Nic accept a huge front-loaded offer? He doesn't owe the Blazers anything especially after they failed to come to terms on an extension last fall. I'm guessing he's going to look out for numero uno (as he should) and take the best offer he can get.