Blazers sign Montero?

[BrianFromWA]

While I agree with just about everything in your post, Crawford is the antithesis of "consistent" jump shooter. He might be (no stats for this) the streakiest jump shooter in the league right now. Out of his 64 games last year, only 24 were "average" shooting games of 34-50%. 26x he shot 33% or below ("bad"), and 12 times he shot over 50% ("good"). His bell curve looks like a uphill slope. **Arbitrary alert...yes, I picked those %s. You can pick different ones if you'd like**

LMA, on the other hand, had 21 "good" games, 38 "average" games, and 9 "bad".
Dame had 23 "good", 41 "average" and 18 "bad".

 

[TBpup]

While I agree with just about everything in your post, Crawford is the antithesis of "consistent" jump shooter. He might be (no stats for this) the streakiest jump shooter in the league right now. Out of his 64 games last year, only 24 were "average" shooting games of 34-50%. 26x he shot 33% or below ("bad"), and 12 times he shot over 50% ("good"). His bell curve looks like a uphill slope. **Arbitrary alert...yes, I picked those %s. You can pick different ones if you'd like**

LMA, on the other hand, had 21 "good" games, 38 "average" games, and 9 "bad".
Dame had 23 "good", 41 "average" and 18 "bad".

I'd love to see those stats on Nic. He may have averaged 9 ppg last year but it often seemed to be either 4 or 14. Even when it was an average game, it was due to about a 3 minutes stretch where he got hot, hit a couple of shots and then disappeared for the rest of the game.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I'd love to see those stats on Nic. He may have averaged 9 ppg last year but it often seemed to be either 4 or 14. Even when it was an average game, it was due to about a 3 minutes stretch where he got hot, hit a couple of shots and then disappeared for the rest of the game.

35 bad, 19 average, 17 good. If 50% is moved into the good category, then Batum only had 12 "average" games out of 71.

 

[blue9]

I'd love to see those stats on Nic. He may have averaged 9 ppg last year but it often seemed to be either 4 or 14. Even when it was an average game, it was due to about a 3 minutes stretch where he got hot, hit a couple of shots and then disappeared for the rest of the game.

I ran the FG% a while back. My definitions are different than BFWA's.

Great = 60%+
Good = 50-59%
Average = 40-49%
Bad = 30-39%
Terrible = <30%

Last season Nic's shooting breaks out as follows:
Great = 10 games (14.08%)
Good = 14 games (19.72%)
Average = 5 games (7.04%)
Bad = 21 games (29.58%)
Terrible = 21 games (29.58%)

However, here's the previous season:
Great = 12 games (14.63%)
Good = 26 games (31.71%)
Average = 23 games (28.05%)
Bad = 13 games (15.85%)
Terrible = 8 games (9.76%)

Compared to LMA's last season:
Great = 11 games (15.49%)
Good = 21 games (29.58%)
Average = 18 games (25.35%)
Bad = 18 games (25.35%)
Terrible = 3 games (4.23%)

 

[BrianFromWA]

Strong work. I just put together some basics b/c I didn't want to spend all night doing bell curve analysis and standard deviations--especially for Jamal Crawford But I think the point was proven.

 

[blue9]

Strong work. I just put together some basics b/c I didn't want to spend all night doing bell curve analysis and standard deviations--especially for Jamal Crawford But I think the point was proven.

I did this a while back when I didn't have anything to do at work. It was to be in response to all the summer posts about how inconsistent Nic is, and how awesome LMA is...but that's all been rendered moot.

 

[Schilly]

Not going to hurt our season to have him get garbage minutes. If it pays off people will look bak and say what a genius move, if not, it was only a $650k gamble out of Pauls pocket book, not a big loss.

 

[TBpup]

35 bad, 19 average, 17 good. If 50% is moved into the good category, then Batum only had 12 "average" games out of 71.

I ran the FG% a while back. My definitions are different than BFWA's.

Great = 60%+
Good = 50-59%
Average = 40-49%
Bad = 30-39%
Terrible = <30%

Last season Nic's shooting breaks out as follows:
Great = 10 games (14.08%)
Good = 14 games (19.72%)
Average = 5 games (7.04%)
Bad = 21 games (29.58%)
Terrible = 21 games (29.58%)

Thanks for the down low...good information gentlemen.

 

[Chris Craig]

This just in: Blazers printed Montero's contract with invisible ink, it has disappeared

 

[1eyejack]

Montero- kid oozes raw talent. I can see why Blazers are giving him a shot. The kid needs playing time and would probably benefit from a year in d-league but IMO he's definitely got NBA talent. One of those low risk high reward type players you keep around. Watching the Twolves game and his drive and dish in the paint shows he has good feel for the game. Obviously hasn't played this high of talent level but I really like what I see.

 

[BBert]

I agree players need "playing time" to learn the true pace and flow of NBA basketball, but at his stage of development, D-League may do more harm than good. Hell, he may not even be ready for D-League. Better to keep him close to home, train him at his and the team's pace in practice, but don't put the grind and pressure of an 82-game NBA season on him. Maybe send him down to the D-League for a short stint during his second season, but for now, I think he's better off training with the Blazers coaches, who can mold him the way they want, instead of unleashing him to play rat ball in the minors.

 

[LizardKing]

He could be a real nice piece Dow the way. Right now, he's got no left and no heft, but other of those can be worked on. Pretty release and a quick one too, so could be nice eventually. Also, looks like nice handles, especially with the right.

Last night he went left down the baseline and hit Vonleh I think with a sick lefty no look pass for a dunk so, even if it's not his strength, he can still pull off some good shit. I'm digging his game and if he can shoot the 3 off the dribble, which it looks like he can, he could be killer off the bench in a year or two

 

[Schilly]

I don't understand why some people would be upset about a high potential guy on a small contract sitting in street clothes.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I don't understand why some people would be upset about a high potential guy on a small contract sitting in street clothes.

Upset is not the word for me. But he needs organized basketball experience in the worst way

 

[Chris Craig]

I don't understand why some people would be upset about a high potential guy on a small contract sitting in street clothes.

I'm sure he'd look good in a suit

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I agree players need "playing time" to learn the true pace and flow of NBA basketball, but at his stage of development, D-League may do more harm than good. Hell, he may not even be ready for D-League. Better to keep him close to home, train him at his and the team's pace in practice, but don't put the grind and pressure of an 82-game NBA season on him. Maybe send him down to the D-League for a short stint during his second season, but for now, I think he's better off training with the Blazers coaches, who can mold him the way they want, instead of unleashing him to play rat ball in the minors.

Basically a paid training period. No expectations of production yet, with the understanding of expected returns once he hits the floor. I think it would make perfect sense for most teams to take this tack with one or two guys every year.

 

[jlprk]

He can do both and I bet he will. He can benefit from practicing with the Blazers and being around them, and also play in the D league. "Whole seasons" is not necessary.

True but irrelevant. We should do what's best for the team, not him. The team can benefit more by warehousing his Telfair-like probability of becoming usable, and instead picking up a much better substitute from the many who are or will become available...especially on the day before the regular season starts, and at the Midseason Trade Deadline when we need to meet the minimum team salary for the season.

 

[Scalma]

True but irrelevant. We should do what's best for the team, not him. The team can benefit more by warehousing his Telfair-like probability of becoming usable, and instead picking up a much better substitute from the many who are or will become available...especially on the day before the regular season starts, and at the Midseason Trade Deadline when we need to meet the minimum team salary for the season.

Don't need to meet any minimum salary. They just divide it among the players. Also it's borderline insulting that you've already figured what this kid can or can't become based on like 20 minutes of summer league.

 

[BigGameDamian]

I don't understand why some people would be upset about a high potential guy on a small contract sitting in street clothes.

That's such a Bob Whitsitt move!

 

[Reep]

I wonder if Coach has been given any orders by the higher ups to play the young guys as much as possible, even at the expense of some wins. It would seem like this would be the year to do it. If Stotts can do whatever he wants, then I can't see Montero getting much time at all unless he really shows improvement in practice and we have a rash of PG injuries.

 

[jlprk]

Don't need to meet any minimum salary. They just divide it among the players. Also it's borderline insulting that you've already figured what this kid can or can't become based on like 20 minutes of summer league.

I wasn't aware that we evaluate players by trying to avoid insulting them. Sure, Paul Allen can split up the salary of the productive player who would have filled the undrafted high schooler's spot, just as I could burn all of my money in a fire instead of buying something with it, but most people prefer to spend money productively on economic resources with any probability of ever contributing. The 181-pound 6-8 22-year-old undrafted high schooler has about a 1% chance, but I'll generously grant him 2% so I'm not "borderline rude" to him.

 

[Pinwheel1]

True but irrelevant. We should do what's best for the team, not him. The team can benefit more by warehousing his Telfair-like probability of becoming usable, and instead picking up a much better substitute from the many who are or will become available...especially on the day before the regular season starts, and at the Midseason Trade Deadline when we need to meet the minimum team salary for the season.

We still have 2 roster spots open. And know one says we have to meet the minimum team salary. Plus it is only Mid July. Lot of things can happen.

 

[jlprk]

We still have 2 roster spots open. And know one says we have to meet the minimum team salary. Plus it is only Mid July. Lot of things can happen.

I count 14 players, including Kaman and Frazier (or substitute a new bench PG for him). No one says I have to avoid being stupid and splitting my bank account among the stores from which I already bought all my belongings, either. As for your 3rd & 4th sentences, that's my point. To make lots of possibilities (including taking advantage of all that spare cap, which you guys keep telling me that we don't HAVE to do...well duh), we had 2 openings, now we have 1. Decreasing the "lots of things can happen" by wasting a valuable roster spot on a 5-year project, more like a forever project, is my whole point.

 

[tester551]

I count 14 players, including Kaman and Frazier (or substitute a new bench PG for him). No one says I have to avoid being stupid and splitting my bank account among the stores from which I already bought all my belongings, either. As for your 3rd & 4th sentences, that's my point. To make lots of possibilities (including taking advantage of all that spare cap, which you guys keep telling me that we don't HAVE to do...well duh), we had 2 openings, now we have 1. Decreasing the "lots of things can happen" by wasting a valuable roster spot on a 5-year project, more like a forever project, is my whole point.

What other options are legitimately out there?

Having Montero on the roster does not prevent them from doing anything. If the Blazers find something, they cut Montero to get the roster spot they need... But the market is pretty barren right now. In the absence of other options, rolling the dice on Montero is not a bad choice.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I count 14 players, including Kaman and Frazier (or substitute a new bench PG for him). .

Hoopshype must be behind. they have 13. Either way...who gives a shit about the 15th spot?

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland_trail_blazers/

 

[Schilly]

Hoopshype missing Pat.

 

[Schilly]

Personally I'm not one to tell Paul Allen he can't spend $650k on a project.

 

[jlprk]

Hoopshype must be behind. they have 13.

Yes, they missed Connaughton. I still count 14. So Montero takes one of our two openings, leaving one.

What other options are legitimately out there?

...But the market is pretty barren right now. In the absence of other options...

No other players want to play? Watch Summer league. Then look at a Free Agent list. Someone always says, "We can't get rid of McMillan/Pritchard/Aldridge/you name it because, can you name anyone on Earth who could replace him?" You seriously want me to list who could replace the illustrious Luis Montero on our roster?

 

[Schilly]

True but do any of the other guys have a higher ceiling than Montero? Clearly we don't know but most the guys have played college ball, some NBA, International, NBDL etc...etc... Montero has played far less and perhaps the coaches see a guy able to at least somewhat hang with absolutely no refinement or experience....

Bigger yet, are we fucking really arguing over a minimum contract guy? I mean in reality where we don't bitch about everything that happens, does it really matter to the scope of this team this season, especially when he can be waived at any point?

 

[jlprk]

Bigger yet, are we fucking really arguing over a minimum contract guy?

We're arguing over the player or two whom we could have gotten at Midseason, worth on the order of $20 million per year.

Or we're arguing about the $1-6M guy who will be salary dumped by another team on the last day before the regular season.

Or we're arguing over the extra options we would have had in some big name trades that Olshey will now have to sit out, in order to develop a guy whose pedigree is nowhere the 5-year projects called Outlaw, Webster, and Leonard. Montero is 5 years away from being 5 years away.