Breakout Candidates For 2009-10

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Minstrel

Minstrel

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This was an article of young players who are good candidates to have breakout campaigns this season, from Empty The Bench (linked from Kelly Dwyer's Ball Don't Lie blog).

This was one candidate:

Greg Oden, C, Portland Trailblazers

2008-09: 21 minutes, 9 pts, 7 rebs, 1.1 blocks, 56% FG, 4 fouls

Why He’ll Improve: Oden had 18 double-doubles in 61 games last season, and he was 1 or 2 rebounds away from 7 more. Did I mention he averaged 21 minutes per game and only 23 in his 39 starts? And that he was coming off microfracture surgery? And that he was a rookie?

In case you didn’t read or see anything about the USA Mini-camp last week, Oden was the dominant defensive player most people remember him being at Ohio State. He owned the paint defensively—blocking shots, intimidating opponents into countless bad shots, rebounding well—because he’s A) starting to get his quickness back 22 months after having knee surgery, and B) he’s becoming a lot more aware of where he needs to be in order to stay out of the foul trouble he was consistently in his rookie year.

With Andre Miller (known for attacking the paint in order to set up lobs to big men) controlling the rock this upcoming year in Portland, an improved understanding of positioning in order to block shots and take charges instead of committing silly fouls, and more time on the floor so that he can continue to average 10.5 rebounds per 30 minutes of burn (that would have ranked Oden in the top-5 last year), Oden could be in for a season that gets the “bust” whispers out of the mouths of some Blazer fans.

Prediction: 27 minutes, 12 – 14 pts, 11 rebs, 1.5 – 2 blocks, 58-60% FG
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http://www.emptythebench.com/2009/07/29/improved-nba-players-2010/
 
A very fair analysis and prediction for Oden. The key for him is staying on the court. I think the ppg may be a bit low, but other than that, I'll take that season from Oden and call it a complete success.
 
PapaG said:
A very fair analysis and prediction for Oden. The key for him is staying on the court. I think the ppg may be a bit low, but other than that, I'll take that season from Oden and call it a complete success.
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Yup, same, especially if his defense continues to be excellent when he's avoiding fouls. The block numbers don't necessarily have to be high, but I'd like to see him changing shots in the paint.
 
Minstrel said:
This was an article of young players who are good candidates to have breakout campaigns this season, from Empty The Bench (linked from Kelly Dwyer's Ball Don't Lie blog).

This was one candidate:



http://www.emptythebench.com/2009/07/29/improved-nba-players-2010/
Click to expand...
Finally a reasonable article. Well spotted Minstrel! I think he is about a board and 2 points shy of what I expect but is pretty much right on. I expect about 15.5pts 12 boards 2 Blocks a game with around .600 FG%. I can't wait to see Oden next season.
 
I'm betting 12/10/1.8. I hope he proves me to be aiming low though.
 
Idog1976 said:
Finally a reasonable article. Well spotted Minstrel! I think he is about a board and 2 points shy of what I expect but is pretty much right on. I expect about 15.5pts 12 boards 2 Blocks a game with around .600 FG%. I can't wait to see Oden next season.
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Those are real high expectations. If he does all those things, we're a 60 win team.
 
Tince said:
Those are real high expectations. If he does all those things, we're a 60 win team.
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They're almost identical to his per-36 numbers from last year. So he'd need to improve from last year, but not by a huge amount. The main area of improvement would need to be defending without fouling. From reports about the Team USA mini-camp, it sounds like he had made solid strides in that respect.
 
Minstrel said:
They're almost identical to his per-36 numbers from last year. So he'd need to improve from last year, but not by a huge amount. The main area of improvement would need to be defending without fouling. From reports about the Team USA mini-camp, it sounds like he had made solid strides in that respect.
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Not only do Per-36 often fail to translate for multiple reasons, I don't think he'll play 36mpg. Do you?
 
I thought it had per 30 Minute projections
 
Tince said:
Not only do Per-36 often fail to translate for multiple reasons, I don't think he'll play 36mpg. Do you?
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I'm hoping he plays at least 30+MPG if he isn't that would be worrying in and of itself. I definitely expect him to be playing heavy minutes unless he has foul trouble. I expect him to improve markedly in that area.
 
Idog1976 said:
the PER 36. I wrote it before I saw you reply.
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Cool.

I expect him to play 28-30 minutes a game. I think he'll improve in most areas of his game, but I think part of playing smarter will cause his offensive rebounding totals to drop. In turn, that might reduce a few put-backs he got last season that attributed to that PER-36 being so high.

I honestly think if he has the numbers minstrel listed, we're a 60 win team. I hope that's the case! I love GO!
 
Tince said:
Not only do Per-36 often fail to translate for multiple reasons
Click to expand...

They generally do translate, actually, unless one is extrapolating from tiny minutes, like a 5 MPG player. Oden played about 20 MPG, which is enough minutes that it's unlikely that his per-minute efficiency was a small-minutes fluke.

I don't think he'll play 36mpg. Do you?
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I don't think he'll play 36 minutes, no, but I expect that he'll play closer to 30 minutes per game. In my post I stipulated that he'd need to improve, in order to reach last year's per-36 numbers in around 30 MPG. He just doesn't need to improve massively, so I don't think that line is particularly unlikely.
 
Minstrel said:
They generally do translate, actually, unless one is extrapolating from tiny minutes, like a 5 MPG player. Oden played about 20 MPG, which is enough minutes that it's unlikely that his per-minute efficiency was a small-minutes fluke.

I don't think he'll play 36 minutes, no, but I expect that he'll play closer to 30 minutes per game. In my post I stipulated that he'd need to improve, in order to reach last year's per-36 numbers in around 30 MPG. He just doesn't need to improve massively, so I don't think that line is particularly unlikely.
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Here's to me wanting you to be right! :cheers:
 
Anthony Randolph... :sigh:

Hopefully Greg makes that pain go away

STOMP
 
PapaG said:
A very fair analysis and prediction for Oden. The key for him is staying on the court.
Click to expand...

Pretty nice to have a player so potentially good and that all we really need is for him to stay in the game.

Drown the Lakers! :cheers:
 
With Sacramento's arsenal of shooters and run-n-gun Paul Westphal as coach I expect Sergio to be in the running for MIP this season. Add a decent center and the Kings could be a solid contender.
 
Tyler_Hansbrough said:
I would be happy with 10\11\2.5 and 3 fouls a game.
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uhh your numbers are really confusing... you think he'll only have 10/11/2.5 but only 3 fouls?! 2.5 blocks would be pretty crazy!

NAME........................GP...MPG...BLK...PF...BLKPG...BLKP48M..BLK/PF
1 Dwight Howard, ORL...79...35.7..231...270..2.92.....3.93........0.86
2 Chris Andersen, DEN...71...20.6..175...174..2.46.....5.75........1.01
3 Marcus Camby, LAC....62..31.0...132...129..2.13.....3.29........1.02

Do you think he'll just be missing tons of shots?:dunno:

MIN FGM-A FG% 3PM-A3P% FTM-A FT% OFF DEF TOT STL BLK TO PF AST PTS
21.5 198-351 .564 0-0 .000 144-226 .637 2.8 4.2 7.0 .41 1.13 1.43 3.90 0.5 8.9

I don't see how he gets so many blocks and yet only 3 fouls. I would think that since he's at 9/7/1.2 he would be more likely to get to 12/10/2
 
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