An example of one of my previous weekly Rookie EFF Rankings updates:
Here's the up to date rookie efficiency ratings for all games played through 3/25/07.
The big news this time is the BIG week for the two Trailblazer rookies LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. These two continue their stellar March play, and after a couple bad games by Rudy Gay, are the only two left in the running for March Western Conference Rookie of the Month. The question is, which one will get it. Roy has won it the last two months, with an EFF of 17.06 in January and a 15.73 in February. He is actually playing even better this month with an EFF = 19.00 for the month of March – so far. Roy has been incredibly consistent and productive all month. He hasn’t had a single single-digit EFF game all month and has scored at least 14 points in every game in the month of March.
His rookie teammate LaMarcus Aldridge joined him in the starting line-up back on March 1. Initially, Aldridge was starting at center in place of the injured Joel Przyvbilla, but slid over to the starting power forward spot and didn’t miss a beat when Zach Randolph left the team for bereavement leave. Highlighting his versatility, Aldridge has fared equally well at both positions. He hasn’t been as consistent as Brandon Roy, but Aldridge has put up some monster games this month. Aldridge started the week with an huge EFF = 32 game on Tuesday and then topped that with an EFF = 34 game on Friday.
Those two games give Aldridge a total of 4 EFF ≥ 30 games during the month of March. No other rookie has more than one EFF ≥ 30 game for the entire season. It’s been a wildly productive month for LaMarcus Aldridge, and a lack of consistency, including a couple single-digit EFF games, is the only thing keeping Aldridge from running away from teammate Roy for March Western Conference ROM honors.
Aldridge and Roy still have three games left in March, but here’s their numbers for the month so far:
Code:
Brandon Roy: [B]18.42 PPG[/B], 5.58 RPG, [B]4.83 APG[/B], [B]1.25 SPG[/B], 0.17 BPG, 45.5 FG%, EFF = 19.00
LaMarcus Aldridge: 16.08 PPG, [B]8.50 RPG[/B], 0.58 APG, 0.92 SPG, [B]1.83 BPG[/B], [B]52.5 FG%[/B], [B]EFF = 20.08[/B]
With three games to go, I’d say this one is still too close to call. It will be interesting to see if the voters favor the steady, consistent all-around excellence of Brandon Roy, or if their heads are turned by those HUGE games Aldridge has been putting up once or twice a week.
And, no I did not forget about the rest of the top rookies. Several of them had very productive weeks, but their performances were clearly over-shadowed by the week Roy and Aldridge had. The other top news of the week is that Toronto rookie, and No. 1 overall pick, Andrea Bargnani is out indefinitely after an emergency appendectomy. Bummer, I was looking forward to a strong finish by Bargnani. The good news is once the incision heals, there should be no long term ill effects from Bargnani’s surgery. Still no word on when he’ll be back. Hopefully, in time for the play-offs. Here's the latest rookie efficiency ratings for each of the top eight rookies listed by season total, change since last week, current month (March) and most recent week (ending 3/25/07).
Code:
[B]Rank Player Season Change Month Week[/B]
1 Brandon Roy 16.04 +0.41 19.00 20.75
2 Jorge Garbajosa 10.86 +0.16 8.82 16.00
3 LaMarcus Aldridge 10.85 +0.89 20.08 23.25
4 Paul Millsap 10.12 +0.33 9.75 17.33
5 Rudy Gay 9.97 -0.22 12.73 5.00
6 Andrea Bargnani 9.92 +0.00 12.00 NA
7 Randy Foye 8.83 +0.15 9.25 11.25
8 Craig Smith 8.75 +0.24 10.50 12.75
Trends: As mentioned, a huge week for Roy and Aldridge. Roy now has both his scoring average (16.3) and EFF (16.04) up over 16 for the first time. Roy continues to distance himself from everyone else besides Aldridge. At this point, barring some major catastrophe, the ROY is his – by a large margin.
So, everybody else is battling for the 2 – 5 spots and a chance to be 1st team all-rookie. This is way too tight to call at this point. It took a career high of 22 points by Jorge Garbajosa to hold off LaMarcus Aldridge by a scant 0.01 for the second spot in this week’s rookie EFF rankings. After a down couple weeks, Paul Millsap is back to his old productive self, got his EFF back above 10.00 and wrestled the 4th spot back from Rudy Gay. After scoring in double-digits in the first nine games of the month, Rudy Gay scored in single-figures on both Thursday and Saturday. This included a stinker of an EFF = -1 game on Saturday that cost Gay dearly. It bumped him out of running for Western Conference ROM, dropped him into 5th place behind Millsap and barely ahead of the idle Bargnani.
Right now, with three weeks left, positions 2 – 6 are really too close to call. Some people may want to include Randy Foye in the running for 1st team all-rookie. For me, that depends on which Randy Foye we’re talking about. The one who put up EFF = 28 and EFF = 18 games on Wednesday and Sunday, or the Randy Foye that put up EFF = -3 and EFF = 2 on Tuesday and Friday. I know rookies are supposed to be inconsistent, but Foye takes inconsistency to an extreme. When he’s good, he’s very good. When he’s bad, he stinks. Just to give you an idea of how Foye’s performance wanders all over the map, here are the EFF numbers for the 12 games he’s played in March:
6, -2, 11, 11, 3, 13, 24, 0, -3, 28, 2, 18
That’s about as inconsistent as you can get. Six double-digit EFF games, including two in the 20s, combined with six single-digit EFF games, including one EFF = 0 game and two negative EFF games.
Just for grins, compare that with the steady consistency of Brandon Roy:
26, 17, 23, 18, 23, 11, 12, 15, 20, 19, 22, 22
For the month, not one single-digit EFF game. And while Foye’s performance has been up and down like a yo-yo over the last week, Roy’s EFF has been rock steady between EFF = 19 and EFF = 22 for the past week. The potential is there, but due to the wild inconsistency, if I was voting today, Randy Foye wouldn’t make my all-rookie team. Still there are three weeks left to play and as Foye has shown, there’s no telling what he might do.
By contrast, Foye’s less heralded teammate Craig Smith continues to be the Rock of Gibraltar. Smith had a very solid week and is having a productive, if unspectacular March. He easily holds on to the 8th and final spot in the rookie EFF rankings.
As for the rest, they’re not really worth getting too excited about at this point. If Rajon Rondo ever hits two shots in a row, his EFF should FINALLY creep up over 8.00 and he’ll make my list. He came oh so devilishly close to making it again this week, ending the week at EFF = 7.97. This is the second time Rondo has ended a week within a few hundredths of 8.00. Last time I was lenient and put him on the list. He promptly tanked and ended up with a rule named after him. Fool me once… Sorry, not this time. You want to make the list, get your EFF above 8.00.
Adam Morrison continues to shoot like he’s unconscious – literally. As a result, his EFF continues to sink like the Titanic. Last week, after shooting 28.6% from the field, his EFF dropped below 8.00 and he became a casualty of the Rajon Rondo Rule. Well, the good news for fans of the ‘Stache is he shot the ball better this week (31.7%), but his EFF continues to plummet and is now below 7.50 for the season.
So, with Bargnani out for the last week and a half of the month, just who wants March Eastern Conference ROM. Frankly, nobody else is deserving. Garbajosa has had 3 really good games – and 8 really bad ones. At least Rondo has had 6 good games to go with his 6 bad ones. If they decide not to give it to Bargnani, Rondo is one of the more “deserving” candidates, but does a guy who’s averaging 6.25 PPG while shooting 36.0% from the field and 57.5% from the line REALLY deserve ROM honors?
And then there is Renaldo Balkman who’s had one really huge game and three decent games. It’s pretty sad when that makes you a contender for Eastern Conference ROM, but that’s the reality of the situation. What about Tyrus Thomas? Interesting… He had that one huge game and he’s been scoring a bit and rebounding a bit more. If only we all agree to pretend he doesn’t have almost as many TOs (27) as made field goals (31) for the month, and is only shooting 61% from the line, he’d have a good shot at winning the award.
However, there is one guy who may just swoop in out of nowhere and snatch the award from them all - Walter Hermann. Yes, you read that right. With injuries to Emeka Okafor and Sean May, Hermann is getting some significant PT. After not really accomplishing anything of note over the first 6 games of the month (including a pair of DNPs), Hermann has had a very solid seven game stretch – averaging 15.3 PPG. Which may be enough to make him the odds-on favorite for Eastern Conference ROM. He’s scored in double-figures 7 times this month, and even has a double-double. One of his most impressive stats of the month is his 57% FG%. If Hermann can score in double-digits one more time in his last two games of the month, he may indeed come out of nowhere to win this award.
Poor Adam Morrison. First he can’t hit a basket in a Pier1 store, and now he’s not even the best rookie on his team. Adding insult to injury, the Fabio clone Hermann also has better hair and the ability to grow a decent mustache in about 3 days. Note: emphasis added for the Draft the 'Stache contingent of this forum.
Summary: Brandon Roy continues to lead the pack by a huge margin in scoring and EFF and should win the ROY award in a landslide. His only legitimate challenger for Western Conference ROM is his teammate LaMarcus Aldridge, who continues to rack up huge games at an impressive rate. After scoring in double-digits the first 9 games of the month, Rudy Gay fell flat by scoring in single-digits in the last 2. That pretty much eliminates him from serious Western Conference ROM consideration.
In the East, Andrea Bargnani is out indefinitely after an emergency appendectomy. Thus leaving the Eastern Conference ROM up for grabs. Nobody is really deserving, but I suppose they have to give it to somebody. That somebody might end up being Charlotte he-man Walter Hermann.
With three weeks left in the season, the ROY is pretty much decided. The only real question now is which four other rookies will join Brandon Roy on the all-rookie team. If I was voting today, it would be Aldridge, Bargnani, Millsap and either Garbajosa or Gay. This last spot is up for gabs, and too close to call at this point.
BNM
