Tier 1: Franchise Players
1. Lebron James- The best player in the world, and also the most important domino in terms of the possibility of a free agent Pied Piper. My best guess is that his effect on other players would be much more dramatic if he chooses to go to a larger media market (Knicks, Nets), which also coincides with more desirable cities to live in. If he stays in the Cleve, the status quo there should continue, but I’d put it at over 50-50 that he would have another Max-quality free agent to play with if he went to NYC.
2. Dwyane Wade- Possibly the most interesting player in terms of 2010 ramifications because of his insane skill and the variety of places he could end up. I see him going in one of three directions: First (and most likely), he says in South Beach with Beasley and the rest. Miami is a great place to live, the “fans” love him, and they have a decent core with management that is happy to build around him. The next most likely possibility is that he moves to a new city with a star, probably LeBron. D-Wade is a winner and I could see him wanting to play with another top shelf guy, which also seems to fit his personality on the court. Finally, the sleeper option for Dwyane is Chicago. Chi-Town is home for him, and Derrick Rose is exactly the type of player I could see Wade saying “Man, I want to play with him.” Something to keep a sharp eye on is any interaction between Rose and Wade at the 2010 All-Star Game, since both should be on the floor for the same team at some point. Like Lebron, Wade will probably be one of the first dominoes to fall in the 2010 offseason, considering the salary offers won’t really vary (other than Miami and everyone else), so D-Wade can think about his decision long before it needs to be made.
3. Brandon Roy (Restricted Free Agent)- I fully expect that Brandon will either sign an extension sooner rather than later or Paul Allen will match any deal he could sign as an RFA, but he’s on here in the interests of full inclusion.
4. Chris Bosh- His choices are nearly identical to D-Wade’s, but I think he is less likely to choose Door #1 than Wade (despite admittedly no direct knowledge on the thought process). In short, he will either stay in Toronto, join forces with another All-Star (probably LeBron or Wade), or go home, which for him is Texas, and Houston should have sufficient cap space in 2010 (as could his hometown Mavericks if Dirk leaves…)