Canzano: whispers about 4 years, 40 mil extn. for Oden?

[KevinJBonn]

I don't live in PDX, and I don't read the O. But from what I've read around here, I've just got to ask.

Has JC ever been right about anything like this?

Go Blazers

Almost never. Take a few stabs in the dark with some well based assumptions and you're bound to get something right, though.

 

[tiredhunter]

If they implement a hard cap without a phase in period, or some form of agreed upon means of renegotiating contracts nearly every NBA franchise is fucked. (And I wager even the likes of Sterling and the Clippers will be screwed too, as the wage floor for players will probably be increased by either market conditions or concession to the players)

Edit: To be on topic. 4years/40 mil seems about right. Expires with some of the other big contracts, hedges the bet fairly well, but is nowhere near a max deal. Bet that 10 of that 40 mil ends up being heavy in incentives too.

 

[Nikolokolus]

This kind of feels like going all in with pocket dueces.

 

[Minstrel]

I have no idea whether Canzano actually knows anything of substance on this issue, but I'd be pretty pleased if the Blazers and Oden agreed to that deal.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

This kind of feels like going all in with pocket dueces.

I've won a lot of money with ducks,

 

[BrianFromWA]

This kind of feels like going all in with pocket dueces.

Nah, more like calling all-in with 4 hearts. Only a 30% chance your card's coming up, but if it does you're winning the pot. And if you fold, you're kind of hosed.

 

[STOMP]

I have no idea whether Canzano actually knows anything of substance on this issue, but I'd be pretty pleased if the Blazers and Oden agreed to that deal.

me too. As someone else mentioned, 4 years would align him with Roy's deal (among others). Portland almost certainly will be the proud owner of that contract at least until the final year of it (2014) when he becomes 20.5M BREC. Of the two scenarios, cap flexibility just isn't there if they say see-ya to Greg while certainly he's shown potential for inside dominance when he's healthy.

it's not my money, but if I were in PA's shoes this seems like a no brainer on which path I'd rather go down

STOMP

 

[Boise Blazer]

I cant help but wonder if the "whispered rumors" of 4yrs $40mil are true, doesnt that somewhat seem to indicate that the organization feels that Oden is on track in his rehab? That seems like a good sign to me. Either way though, if we werent to offer him that kind of deal then we would probably go after someone in the 6-8 million dollar range or a few players at center that total at least 10 mil so I am willing to gamble the difference between the two scenarios on the potential of a even somewhat healthy Oden. Its not like if we dont sign Oden then we just dont sign anyone and that potential 10 mil just goes away.

 

[THE HCP]

The only thing worse than Oden being an injury plagued player for the Blazers is Oden being a star for someone else.

Ugh.

DING DING DING! This is why I'd be happy with this signing.

 

[BBert]

Then, I asked Oden about the June qualifying offer that the Blazers will almost certainly make to him. And I wondered if Portland might have watched the Mavericks excuse them in the first round of the playoffs and thought about what a healthy Oden might have meant.

"The way I look at it," he said, "is that it's not their move. It's my move. Everyone says it's their move. I think it's my move."

I don't know what the sentence in the middle has to do with the other two. But Greg's comment doesn't seem very hopeful that he wants to be here. Don't players usually say they want to play for "team x" for life, right up until the moment they sign with "team y"?

We need you back, Greg. And yes, you do owe us something for the support and the millions you've been paid.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Ahhhhh, I try to avoid clownzano stuff, but you got me to read it..

I think if the clown has anything, its a bargin at four and fourty.

Who knows what the new CBA will bring, I have to think that non guaranteed contracts and more pay for play type of structured deals will be the rage, but that is beside the point.

sets head back on the desk and dreams of Oden stuffing over a crying Dirk......

 

[magnifier661]

If there is ever a hard cap, there would be some arrangements for contracts already made. You can't go back to a player and say "oops just kidding, we can't pay you 10 mil, it's 4 mil. Just doesn't work like that. Maybe the best time to sign Oden is before the CBa expires.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Great move IMO. Assuming Greg becomes a servicable center (12/9/2) that can play 60+ games a year, 10 million is a good number.

 

[Minstrel]

Great move IMO. Assuming Greg becomes a servicable center (12/9/2) that can play 60+ games a year, 10 million is a good number.

I sincerely doubt that anyone thinks that Oden is going to settle in as a consistently healthy mediocre center and therefore trying to put a value on that. The two likeliest scenarios are probably completely lost seasons and healthy, dominant seasons. One is worth $0 per year and the other is worth closer to $20 million per year, so the two parties would come to an agreement somewhere in between.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I sincerely doubt that anyone thinks that Oden is going to settle in as a consistently healthy mediocre center and therefore trying to put a value on that. The two likeliest scenarios are probably completely lost seasons and healthy, dominant seasons. One is worth $0 per year and the other is worth closer to $20 million per year, so the two parties would come to an agreement somewhere in between.

Likeliest in your mind. Got it.

 

[Minstrel]

Likeliest in your mind. Got it.

Likeliest by the evidence provided so far.

 

[JDC]

Signing Greg semi-long term and hoping he gets and stays healthy is the Blazers only opportunity to seriously compete in the next 5-7 years. No brainer for me.

 

[illmatic99]

Here are most of the centers around the league:

-Darko- 4 years, $20mil
-Gortat- 5 years, $34mil--- steal of the bunch
-Blatche- 5 years, $36mil
-Haywood- 5 years, 40mil
-Varejao- 6 years, 48 mil
-Perkins- 4 years, $35mil
-Camby- 2 years, $18mil
-Bargnani- 5 years, $50mil
-Nene- 6 years, $60mil
-Chandler- 6 years, $63mil
-Kaman- 5 years, $53mil
-Dalembert- 6 years, $64mil
-Bogut- 5 years, $60mil
-Horford- 5 years, $60mil
-Noah- 5 years, $60mil
-Okafor- 6 years, $72mi
-Okafor- 6 years, $72mil
-Jefferson- 5 years, $65mil
-Bynum- 4 years, $58 mil
-David Lee- 6 years, $80mil--- damn

And for good measure: Aldridge- 5 years, $63 mil.

Yao and Dwight both got max deals.

Looking through these numbers, even if GO plays only around 60 games a season with the sort of production he was putting up last year, that 4 year, $40 mil deal seems very reasonable.

 

[KingSpeed]

My thoughts exactly. I do not think I could survive him becoming a star elsewhere.

Me either. I wouldn't be able to handle that. It would possibly kill my interest in basketball.

 

[Chuck Taylor]

Signing Greg semi-long term and hoping he gets and stays healthy is the Blazers only opportunity to seriously compete in the next 5-7 years. No brainer for me.

this!

 

[STOMP]

Here are most of the centers around the league:

-Darko- 4 years, $20mil
-Gortat- 5 years, $34mil--- steal of the bunch
-Blatche- 5 years, $36mil
-Haywood- 5 years, 40mil
-Varejao- 6 years, 48 mil
-Perkins- 4 years, $35mil
-Camby- 2 years, $18mil
-Bargnani- 5 years, $50mil
-Nene- 6 years, $60mil
-Chandler- 6 years, $63mil
-Kaman- 5 years, $53mil
-Dalembert- 6 years, $64mil
-Bogut- 5 years, $60mil
-Horford- 5 years, $60mil
-Noah- 5 years, $60mil
-Okafor- 6 years, $72mi
-Okafor- 6 years, $72mil
-Jefferson- 5 years, $65mil
-Bynum- 4 years, $58 mil
-David Lee- 6 years, $80mil--- damn

And for good measure: Aldridge- 5 years, $63 mil.

Yao and Dwight both got max deals.

Nene's 20.4 PER and solid D at 10M is a pretty sugar sweet deal as well. Since his cancer scare 4 years ago he's averaged 78 games a season so his durability is also a plus

and to add one to your list, Amare- 5 years 97.5M

STOMP

 

[illmatic99]

He gives us exactly what we're lacking.

[video=youtube;IE2G4E16L3Y]

 

[julius]

He gives us exactly what we're lacking.

[video=youtube;IE2G4E16L3Y]

Solid outside shooting?

 

[illmatic99]

Nah, but like on a few of those plays, he could get offensive rebounds off threes and bang on fools down low.

 

[Shooter]

I just wish I had Oden's career. He's going to make $40 million for sitting on the bench another 4 years. And he'll get to watch every Blazer game from courtside for free!!!

 

[magnifier661]

I am just hoping for Oden to come back healthy, or even 80% healthy with Miller running point. I just couldn't imagine the amount of lops we would have.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

If it were any other writer I wouldn't care, but he needs to source that shit.

If he didn't just drop his pants and reach around back to get that figure, I think it's a risk worth taking.

Which is how Crapzano gets 95% of his stuff.
'

 

[BBert]

Thanks yuyuza. Now I won't be able to sleep.

 

[Minstrel]

I just wish I had Oden's career. He's going to make $40 million for sitting on the bench another 4 years. And he'll get to watch every Blazer game from courtside for free!!!

Any player you express derision for tends to do very well so, in a funny way, you're giving me greater optimism about Oden's future.

(Of course, a couple of those players--like Rasheed Wallace and Zach Randolph--went on to greater glories with other teams. Hopefully that isn't what your magical powers of being very wrong are going to cause.)

 

[Rhal]

I don't see how you can not attempt to keep him. We don't have capspace to go sign a good center nor do we have the pics and the pieces we can afford to lose to try and get one. Were in a win now mode because Roy's contract pretty much screws us from rebuilding effectively and we have the talent (but maybe not the toughness) to win now. Oden would add some huge toughness and a big body at a position were lacking. Of course if he gets injured again. Signing him to a contract doesn't effect our capspace because well... we don't have any capspace and will not have any for the next few years.
A hard cap I don't think is going to happen in the NBA. To many top teams (the teams that bring in the majority of the money) have HUGE HUGE payrolls. Only way a hardcap makes sense is if you bring down how much a max contract is and have a way to transition it into place so it really isnt' into full effect until 5 years from now when all the contracts signed under the old CBA have run there course.