Chad Ford unveils mock scenarios (spoiler: Poythress, Cauley-Stein to POR)

[TowelBoy]

Ford released a column today analyzing whom each team would draft were they fortunate enough to win the lottery. While most of the ESPN.com audience is interested in juicy questions like McLemore vs. Nerlens, I was far more interested in what was going at the bottom of the mock.

This morning, there was a bug in the system in that it failed to account for our pick going to CHA if it was 13 or 14 (they later fixed it and, properly, POR only shows up in the mock if we draw a top-3 pick). I ran the simulation a bunch of times and Poythress and Cauley-Stein were the two names that we kept getting (C-S only if Poythress was off the board).

Anyone who knows me knows I watch 0.00 CBB, but after getting up to speed on Ford's stuff in recent weeks, both prospects fit with what I'm hoping for out of this draft (assuming we can tank enough for the 10-12 range and don't trade the pick, which I'm not opposed to either): young players with sky-high ceilings who "slip" due to inconsistency and lack of polish.

Anyone with opinions on these dudes? Time to start looking forward to something....

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm not married to this, but I'd imagine that at this point I'd rather take the chance on lower-athleticism guys who can really play (as long as they have NBA-decent athleticism) than high-upside projects who can jump out of the gym but don't know where to jump to. I'm sure someone can come up with other comparisons that totally refute this (Jeff Green over Noah might be one), but I'd much rather have (for this team), say Jimmer than Elliot Williams or JJ Redick over Webster (or for that matter, Lillard over Drummond or Henson). Unless it's MKG. I just like that guy.

In this draft, in this range, that might mean someone like Zeller or Olynyk than Gobert, or Shabazz or Saric (sleeper?) over Poythress.

 

[BrianFromWA]

On another note, assuming we did get, say, a top 3 pick by some miracle. Is Noel the pick? Or someone like Oladipo or McLemore? Smart if you think he's BPA, even though we have Dame?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

On another note, assuming we did get, say, a top 3 pick by some miracle. Is Noel the pick? Or someone like Oladipo or McLemore? Smart if you think he's BPA, even though we have Dame?

At top 3, I'd like one of the shooting guards--of which I believe Smart actually is one. Any one of Smart, McLemore or Oladipo would be great, IMO. Possibly Porter too, although I haven't watched him, just going off what I've heard. At 12, I'd probably go Poythress too, although (based on what Ford would have available) there's an argument to be made for Isaiah Austin--if you like raw, skinny centers with tons of "upside". Also, I'm on record a few months ago with a prediction that Cauley-Stein may well end up a better player than Noel, so I wouldn't be totally averse to him either (although sometimes he seems a tad stiff to me).

 

[Mediocre Man]

I find it hard to believe either of those guys will fall to the second round where the Blazers will be picking

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I find it hard to believe either of those guys will fall to the second round where the Blazers will be picking

You don't think we keep our pick?

I count 6 wins left when looking at the rest of this season. Very tough schedule.

So that is a 6 and 19 finish.

 

[Mediocre Man]

You don't think we keep our pick?

I count 6 wins left when looking at the rest of this season. Very tough schedule.

So that is a 6 and 19 finish.

As it stands right now I don't. Things may change if we are officially eliminated from the playoffs with a few games to play and we clear the bench though. I think Portland wins just enough to stay in the 13-15 slot. Not quite good enough to make the playoffs, not quite bad enough to get into the top 12. NBA purgatory at it's finest

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm losing hope that we keep the pick.

 

[blue9]

I'm losing hope that we keep the pick.

I'll be shocked if we don't. We'll win the next two, but after that we're going to lose A LOT.

 

[BBert]

I would be so stoked if we got Poythress.

 

[magnifier661]

As it stands right now I don't. Things may change if we are officially eliminated from the playoffs with a few games to play and we clear the bench though. I think Portland wins just enough to stay in the 13-15 slot. Not quite good enough to make the playoffs, not quite bad enough to get into the top 12. NBA purgatory at it's finest

But 13-15 really gonna give you talent we need? I would rather lose the cap hold and make some waves this summer. Any extra cap could really help big time.

 

[Hobbesarable]

But 13-15 really gonna give you talent we need? I would rather lose the cap hold and make some waves this summer. Any extra cap could really help big time.

I believe MM was referring to the top 12 protected pick. Good morning, Mags!

 

[drexlersdad]

I'm losing hope that we keep the pick.

if dallas passes the blazers (and i think they will), blazers are locked into at least #12 more or less

i know doom and gloom is so fun to participate in and all, but...why??

 

[KeepOnRollin]

This team fights until the end so they could prove me wrong but as I said guys, after looking at our schedule, I don't see how we can not drop a few places in the standings. Seriously, look at our remaining games. I know you can't pick wins and losses and expect them to stick but after our next two games you could make a case that we lose every other one (I don't think that will happen and I don't want it to but you could make a case for it).

 

[magnifier661]

I believe MM was referring to the top 12 protected pick. Good morning, Mags!

Good morning Hobbs!!!!

 

[Mediocre Man]

But 13-15 really gonna give you talent we need? I would rather lose the cap hold and make some waves this summer. Any extra cap could really help big time.

Hobbes was correct, but that pick would be a valuable asset to a team possibly looking to shed salary *couch* Phoenix *cough* or a team looking to avoid luxury tax

 

[Mediocre Man]

if dallas passes the blazers (and i think they will), blazers are locked into at least #12 more or less

i know doom and gloom is so fun to participate in and all, but...why??

I think that's the rub, DD. Dallas has been less than good this year, and portland seems to be a team that wins many games they shouldn't. A lot of people seem to think 6-7 more wins, but I can easily see 10 more

 

[drexlersdad]

I think that's the rub, DD. Dallas has been less than good this year, and portland seems to be a team that wins many games they shouldn't. A lot of people seem to think 6-7 more wins, but I can easily see 10 more

even then, all dallas would need is 11 or 12 wins out of 25...

toronto is playing alot better, all they would need to do is play .500 ball the rest of the way, same goes for philly and detroit more or less...

 

[magnifier661]

even then, all dallas would need is 11 or 12 wins out of 25...

toronto is playing alot better, all they would need to do is play .500 ball the rest of the way, same goes for philly and detroit more or less...

Dallas hasn't been that consistent though. And it's quite possible lakers start losing too. There are a bunch of "what ifs".

 

[blue9]

And it's quite possible lakers start losing too.

The league won't let that happen.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Toronto has lost two in a row now

Dallas has
12 home games left

17 out of their remaining 25 games vs current playoff teams

2 of the other games are at Portland and at LAL

Portland's schedule is pretty tough, but so is Dallas'

 

[drexlersdad]

Dallas hasn't been that consistent though. And it's quite possible lakers start losing too. There are a bunch of "what ifs".

well of course there are. the difference is i am taking a reasoned approach to the odds, while others insist on worse case scenario and finding ways to make that true

pythagorean expectation says dallas/toronto/detroit should have a better record than the blazers right now and going forward...whether that happens is a "what if"

 

[drexlersdad]

just my interpretation of the odds

anyone want to make a bet on it?

 

[Mediocre Man]

just my interpretation of the odds

anyone want to make a bet on it?

I would, but I used to have an "issue" with gambling, so I will look on

 

[drexlersdad]

I would, but I used to have an "issue" with gambling, so I will look on

haha not money man, a friendly sig bet or something

optimist vs pessimist we can call it

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm losing hope that we keep the pick.

Keep the faith brother!

 

[Mediocre Man]

haha not money man, a friendly sig bet or something

optimist vs pessimist we can call it

Hmm, let me get back to you on the friendly wager. I need to run it by someone first

 

[magnifier661]

Hmm, let me get back to you on the friendly wager. I need to run it by someone first

Tell your guy I want a large pepperoni with olives and Canadian bacon.

 

[santeesioux]

It seems too early to be learning the names of the players in the draft, lol.

 

[glazeduck]

Serious question for those who are more up on college BBall...

Wouldn't James McAdoo be a name worth considering if we're able to hold onto our lottery pick? While I'm certainly short on details, I know he hasn't lived up to the huge amount of hype surrounding him at UNC, yet a quick look at his stats suggest that he's still putting up good numbers. Scouting reports suggest he's an athletic stretch 4/big 3 (potentially providing some roster and rotation flexibility) who's a good rebounder, shooter and defender. Seems like a guy with huge upside and a very high floor. Possibly a bit of a Claver duplication, but if we're stuck looking at projects or stiffs (as this thread is beginning to suggest), seems like McAdoo might be a very attractive alternative?

Again, I watch almost zero college ball so please fill me in if I'm missing something!