Charlie Rosen calls Oden a "dud"

[mgb]

That had little to do with Oden's conditioning and it certainly didn't have anything to do with some defect in Nate's coaching. Oden picked up three fouls in the first half and had to come out. By the time his rotation started in the second half, the game was a blowout. It would have been stupid to play Oden more in garbage minutes at the risk of injury.

The fact that Oden scored 12 points, grabbed 8 boards, and had 2 blocks in 11 minutes of playing time shows that Rosen's "dud" label is ridiculous. The fact that the numskull doesn't realise that the Blazers have another very good center on the team in Przybilla proves that he's completely out of touch with regard to the Blazers' future.

Yet he did play later. I would think any time he can get mins in to get in better condition and let him work on his shot/D would be worth while. Hell, Roy was playing until the last 3 mins. I was suprise he wasn't pulled earlier.

 

[Minstrel]

but he is not in the same discussion right now with the other rookies if we are talking ROY.

No, because he hasn't played enough minutes to win ROY. He's been a better player than pretty much all the other rookies when on the court, though.

So, he won't and shouldn't win ROY, but I'd rather have Oden going forward than any other of the rookies.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Last game, 11 mins and only 4 fouls. So you are saying he's to out of shape to play more than 11 mins?

I'd bet you a beer his knee is hurting, and that he has to get it scoped as soon as the season is over.

 

[oldmangrouch]

No, because he hasn't played enough minutes to win ROY. He's been a better player than pretty much all the other rookies when on the court, though.

So, he won't and shouldn't win ROY, but I'd rather have Oden going forward than any other of the rookies.

Really? Even over Derrick Rose?

 

[Minstrel]

Really? Even over Derrick Rose?

Yup. Oden's play on the court has been consistent with his hype, for a rookie. If he didn't have trouble with fouls, his per-game stats would be as good or better than Howard's rookie numbers. I'll take a projected dominant big man over a projected great point guard.

 

[TripTango]

Some idiots look as PPG and assume that tells the whole story.

Greg Oden, as a rookie big man coming off microfracture knee surgery has a PER of 18.1. In most years, that's high enough to win ROY.

Kevin Durant won ROY last year with a PER of 15.8, but because he jacked up over 17 FGA per game on a crappy team he managed to average > 20 PPG. Durant has stepped up his game this year and is shooting a much higher FG%. Why don't we give Oden another season and see how much he improves. After all, Durant didn't sit out a year with microfracture knee surgery - and he still showed considerable improvement during his second full season.

Oden came into the season 30 lbs. overweight, and other than two summer league games hadn't played competitive basketball in 19 months. Yet, the lazy journalists chose to ignore this and label him a bust.

Also, anyone who has actually watched him play more than once knows he has a huge impact on the game, whether or not he's scoring. He has an off-the-chart ORB% of 16.1. By comparison, Dwight Howard, this season, is averaging a career best ORB% of 14.1 (12.2 career average). He makes a huge impact on defense and draws double teams on offense.

Yes, he gets in foul trouble (but also draws fouls on opposing big men at a very high rate), and he has not yet regained his pre-surgery explosiveness. Both of those things are correctable. As a rookie, he's also inconsistent. That shouldn't be a huge surprise and is not sufficient reason to call him a bust. If you only look at the extremes Oden is either a total bust or a budding superstar. The truth, right now, lies between these two extremes. We won't know which he will become until a couple years from now. Calling him either at this point is narrow minded, short sighted and just plain stupid.

BNM

Solid post BNM -- nice work. Can we get this as an automatic reply to any post containing the words "Oden" and "dud" or "bust"?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yup. Oden's play on the court has been consistent with his hype, for a rookie. If he didn't have trouble with fouls, his per-game stats would be as good or better than Howard's rookie numbers. I'll take a projected dominant big man over a projected great point guard.

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one. I would rather go to war with a duo of Rose and Joel, than Oden and a mediocre PG. (not least of which because Rose is more likely to REACH his potential than Oden)

 

[mgb]

I'd bet you a beer his knee is hurting, and that he has to get it scoped as soon as the season is over.

Hmmm,,,I'll take that bet.

It'll be hard to prove though that he's hurting now and he might just have it clean up after the season anyway. But if he has the surgery you win.

 

[Minstrel]

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one. I would rather go to war with a duo of Rose and Joel, than Oden and a mediocre PG.

It remains to be seen who ends up as Portland's point guard. I think Bayless will be far more than "mediocre," personally. And Przybilla is a great backup, but he's also "mediocre" as a starter. Having an average center as a backup is a great luxury, though.

(not least of which because Rose is more likely to REACH his potential than Oden)

I think Oden has a higher ceiling. I think he's likely to at least be as good as Rose. He's currently better when on the floor (significantly higher PER and much more impactful defense) and he's still recovering from microfracture surgery, while Rose isn't. I don't see any reason to believe Oden will fall behind in development, unless you believe he'll never figure out how not to foul.

As for injuries, I know you take the viewpoint that Oden's career is more likely than not going to be derailed by them. I don't. If he continues having injury problems next year, I'd be quite concerned. Right now, since none are chronic, I think it's way too early to assume he'll always pick up random injuries. It could be that he will, but I don't think that should be the default opinion already.

 

[Nikolokolus]

For perspective here's a couple of previous Rosen gems:

Question: I really appreciate your work, Charley, but I have to ask if you're willing to reassess your opinion of Brandon Roy. A few weeks back, you labeled Roy "a bust." Please take another look at this amazing kid. On a related issue, have you ever admitted in your column or mailbag when you've been wrong or too harsh in your judgment of a player or a team? Thanks. — Nick, Portland


Response: The 6th pick in last year's draft, Brandon Roy, is supposed to represent the Blazers future. For sure, he's got a lively body, good hands, and can find makeable shots in the lane where the big men live. He's also an okay passer, and is more comfortable driving left than right. Like most rookies, Roy has difficulty playing anybody straight-up. But he does play help-defense like a veteran. What he can't do is shoot. And that's a huge problem.

I also indicated that Roy's handle didn't measure up to the standard required to play the point in the NBA. Moreover, I felt that his best position might be small forward. So, when I subsequently called him "a bust, I was primarily referring to his obvious inability to play either of the positions the Blazers drafted him to play — point and/or shooting guard."

http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/2007/02/rosen_thistle.html

Quote:So, then, which of the Blazers have bright futures in Portland?

Randolph, for sure. As long as he does everything that McMillian asks of him. And as long as his partner in crime, Darius Miles, is permanently banished from the Rose Garden. Aldridge is another keeper. As long as he makes an off-season commitment to improve his skills.

Dixon is a good guy to have around. So is Dickau.

Udoka is raw but earnest, and could conceivably develop into a valuable role player. Most rookies require three seasons to either make it or forsake it, and both Roy and Rodriguez deserve to continue their apprenticeship for at least that long.

Przybilla is over-paid and under-played. He should be a goner.

Magloire and Webster should also be exiled ASAP.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=313&f=2178&t=11495

Pretty much sums up everything you need to know about Rosen's ability to scout and evaluate talent. Frankly I take his "dud" comment as an almost guarantee of success.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Come on, he totally called Miles's case.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Three comments.

First, Rosen has always been a Phil Jackson "nuthugger", so that clearly influences some of his opinions.

Second, Rosen was the first person I know of who called out Carlisimo as a fraud and a rotten coach. (and this was when he was still with the Blazers)

Third, I seem to recall Rosen correctly predicting that Sheed would be a much better player in Detroit, when he was no longer surrounded by "knuckleheads." I think it safe to say, he knows vets much better than young players. As a scout of young talent, he pretty much stinks!

 

[Deebag]

Anyone could predicted Sheed would play better elsewhere. The man HATED Portland.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Come on, he totally called Miles's case.

Had he called the sun coming up in the morning would it have been any more impressive a prediction?

 

[Boob-No-More]

He'd also have fouled out.

Did you, or did you not read the part where I said the two things currently limiting his PT, fouls and conditioning, are both correctable?

Just wanted to make sure you saw it that time.

BNM

 

[mgb]

Anyone could predicted Sheed would play better elsewhere. The man HATED Portland.

Anyone could predict he'd play better on a good team. He wouldn't have done shit where we traded him to.

 

[Masbee]

Good find on that Simmons quote.

Response: The 6th pick in last year's draft, Brandon Roy, is supposed to represent the Blazers future. For sure, he's got a lively body, good hands, and can find makeable shots in the lane where the big men live. He's also an okay passer, and is more comfortable driving left than right. Like most rookies, Roy has difficulty playing anybody straight-up. But he does play help-defense like a veteran. What he can't do is shoot. And that's a huge problem.

I also indicated that Roy's handle didn't measure up to the standard required to play the point in the NBA. Moreover, I felt that his best position might be small forward. So, when I subsequently called him "a bust, I was primarily referring to his obvious inability to play either of the positions the Blazers drafted him to play — point and/or shooting guard."

So, all the while I was giddy with delight at the terrific rookie season Brandon was having for our previously hapless franchise, I was fooling myself?

Wow. Was I a fool. And here I thought Brandon was great for a rookie, never worried about his shot or handles. Never for a second thought his true position was Small Forward. And what an idiot I was to think how great he was going to be once officials started giving him some calls.

Wow. I stand corrected. Thank you Charlie for your insight, wisdom and.....genius.