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illmatic99 said:
While he is in his 8th year, he's never had a consistent stretch of play without injuries/trades/etc. I don't think it's THAT unfathomable that he has a career year.
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That would be great if it happened. If I were the blazers, I would not build on it happening if the goal is to make sure dame is happy.
 
andalusian said:
Thanks for this. It gives us numerical analysis that confirms my gut feeling that any idea of Nurkic being misused is unlikely.

The options are:

1. Billups is an offensive genius that will run a scheme that will make Nurkic a much more efficient offensive player (impossible to tell with him being a first year coach)
2. Nurkic takes a giant leap forward going into year 8 in the league (unlikely)
3. Nurkic is the same player we have seen so far, above average defensively, below average offensively, the team's offense takes a dive with more emphasis on Nurkic in the offense until a correction is made and we return to him being option #4/5 on offense as he is now (likely).
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I don't think this will make him the player Chauncey is envisioning but the only thing Nurk has to change to make a huge leap forward in year 8 is his mentality on offense in the paint. If he will just commit to finishing strong every time he's close to the hole and dunking it every time he can (Chauncey can be the catalyst for that change by drilling it into him and holding him accountable when he doesn't) then Nurk becomes a potent scoring option offensively and the pretty good passing big man he's always been... on top of being a great lane clogging big on defense. That's a decent 3rd or 4th best player on a contending team if the parts around him fit that skill set on both ends.
 
julius said:
The team was at it's best when Nurk is engaged, involved and taking an active role in the flow off the offense (with passes, etc).
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I'm not disputing that; I'm also not just accepting it either, especially considering the one time Portland made it out of the 2nd round Nurkic wasn't playing

that assertion seems really subjective and vague, starting with I'm not sure what you mean by Nurkic being "engaged"? Nurkic is not a pick & pop threat. And as the roll man on the PnR, Nurkic was only in the 53rd percentile (for comparison, Gobert was in the 87th percentile).

last year, Nurkic was in the 17th percentile in post-up (Kanter was 68th percentile), which dovetails with the fact he was only 10th on the team in FG% at the rim, tied with CJ. He was in the 15th percentile in put-backs (Kanter 64th percentile; Little 98th percentile). Again, this goes to all the weak shit he throws up around the rim. He also has a relatively low TS% for a big man

then, as a facilitator, among notable facilitating C's he was last in assist/bad pass and 5th on the team assist/turnover. He had an OffBPM of 0.3 last season; Kanter's mark was 2.0. And he was 9th on the team in offensive rating. Portland had an offensive rating of 117.5 when Nurkic was on the floor, and one of 118.6 when he was off the floor

I get that the theory is that Billups will be able to unlock Nurk's offensive genius with different schemes and emphasis. Maybe it's a good theory. But I don't see anything in the numbers to suggest it's a good idea and I'm not buying the simple assertion that Portland is best when Nurkic is a main offensive option. I don't believe that's true until people can show otherwise or Billups shows otherwise. I'm fine with Billups trying it, by the way...just don't have any confidence the theory will work
 
I've been screaming it for years, run the offense through Nurk ala Jokic and watch the Blazers become a much better team. It's already the stats. The team shoots a higher %. We rack up more assists. Nurk feels more involved so he plays better D. I'm excited that Chauncey has put that at the forefront of the offensive philosophy. You're going to have a bunch of naysayers who say Nurk can't do what Jokic does, but he doesn't have to.
 
AmirIcon said:
I've been screaming it for years, run the offense through Nurk ala Jokic and watch the Blazers become a much better team. It's already the stats. The team shoots a higher %. We rack up more assists. Nurk feels more involved so he plays better D. I'm excited that Chauncey has put that at the forefront of the offensive philosophy. You're going to have a bunch of naysayers who say Nurk can't do what Jokic does, but he doesn't have to.
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Would be great, unfortunately, the numbers prove the exact opposite of that as far as offensive production. Sad, but true.
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm not disputing that; I'm also not just accepting it either, especially considering the one time Portland made it out of the 2nd round Nurkic wasn't playing

that assertion seems really subjective and vague, starting with I'm not sure what you mean by Nurkic being "engaged"? Nurkic is not a pick & pop threat. And as the roll man on the PnR, Nurkic was only in the 53rd percentile (for comparison, Gobert was in the 87th percentile).

last year, Nurkic was in the 17th percentile in post-up (Kanter was 68th percentile), which dovetails with the fact he was only 10th on the team in FG% at the rim, tied with CJ. He was in the 15th percentile in put-backs (Kanter 64th percentile; Little 98th percentile). Again, this goes to all the weak shit he throws up around the rim. He also has a relatively low TS% for a big man

then, as a facilitator, among notable facilitating C's he was last in assist/bad pass and 5th on the team assist/turnover. He had an OffBPM of 0.3 last season; Kanter's mark was 2.0. And he was 9th on the team in offensive rating. Portland had an offensive rating of 117.5 when Nurkic was on the floor, and one of 118.6 when he was off the floor

I get that the theory is that Billups will be able to unlock Nurk's offensive genius with different schemes and emphasis. Maybe it's a good theory. But I don't see anything in the numbers to suggest it's a good idea and I'm not buying the simple assertion that Portland is best when Nurkic is a main offensive option. I don't believe that's true until people can show otherwise or Billups shows otherwise. I'm fine with Billups trying it, by the way...just don't have any confidence the theory will work
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My theory is by changing just a few simple things Chauncey can unlock Nurk... to the point that he is quite a bit better than he's been in the past. Those simple changes are Nurk dunks the ball when at all possible, he always takes the ball strong to the hoop and when he sees a good pass to make he just makes it without getting in the least bit fancy.

That's all it takes IMO and Nurk becomes a much better asset to our team. He ends up near the top of the league as a roll man, he ends up near the top of the league in post ups and he ends up near the top of the league in FG% a TS%. He would also become a more efficient passer and therefore the team would call on him to pass more. That's on offense, on defense he will be a great lane clogging big and it seems he will never be extremely mobile or even mobile enough to cover the perimeter and recover to protect the paint but that's something we can live with. Just like we can live with what seems to be his limited shooting abilities. All by making sure he's surrounded by the right personnel.

If Nurk doesn't change these things in training camp or reverts back to his foolishness once play starts, you don't bench him. Chauncey stays on him about it while Neil quietly shops him because at that point you've got to say "fuck it".
 
AmirIcon said:
I've been screaming it for years, run the offense through Nurk ala Jokic and watch the Blazers become a much better team. It's already the stats. The team shoots a higher %. We rack up more assists. Nurk feels more involved so he plays better D. I'm excited that Chauncey has put that at the forefront of the offensive philosophy. You're going to have a bunch of naysayers who say Nurk can't do what Jokic does, but he doesn't have to.
Click to expand...

again, last season, Portland's offensive on/off rating was -1.1 when Nurkic was on the floor. It was +6.2 when Kanter was on the floor

at the end of the season Nurkic was tied with Powell for 4th on the team in FGA/possession. He was also 4th on the team in usage rate. So, it's not like he didn't have a substantial offensive role. Melo was ahead of him in both and CJ was hogging way too much offense so sure, there's some free space there.
 
blazerkor said:
My theory is by changing just a few simple things Chauncey can unlock Nurk... to the point that he is quite a bit better than he's been in the past. Those simple changes are Nurk dunks the ball when at all possible, he always takes the ball strong to the hoop and when he sees a good pass to make he just makes it without getting in the least bit fancy.

That's all it takes IMO and Nurk becomes a much better asset to our team. He ends up near the top of the league as a roll man, he ends up near the top of the league in post ups and he ends up near the top of the league in FG% a TS%. He would also become a more efficient passer and therefore the team would call on him to pass more. That's on offense, on defense he will be a great lane clogging big and it seems he will never be extremely mobile or even mobile enough to cover the perimeter and recover to protect the paint but that's something we can live with. Just like we can live with what seems to be his limited shooting abilities. All by making sure he's surrounded by the right personnel.

If Nurk doesn't change these things in training camp or reverts back to his foolishness once play starts, you don't bench him. Chauncey stays on him about it while Neil quietly shops him because at that point you've got to say "fuck it".
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Nurk has been playing organized basketball for 15 years. It seems like a tall order to change ingrained habits in just one training camp.
 
wizenheimer said:
Nurk has been playing organized basketball for 15 years. It seems like a tall order to change ingrained habits in just one training camp.
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When it's as simple as "You have to dunk that!" and "That pass wasn't actually there!" I guess the passing is a little more nuanced but if he's not willing to do the right things there are teams out there that have value for the guy and think like I do that the changes are too simple not to be able to be made.
 
AmirIcon said:
I've been screaming it for years, run the offense through Nurk ala Jokic and watch the Blazers become a much better team. It's already the stats. The team shoots a higher %. We rack up more assists. Nurk feels more involved so he plays better D. I'm excited that Chauncey has put that at the forefront of the offensive philosophy. You're going to have a bunch of naysayers who say Nurk can't do what Jokic does, but he doesn't have to.
Click to expand...

Only once has Nurk gotten more than 30 minutes and 12 shots per game; in the bubble.

In those 8 games:

17.6 PPG
10.3 RPG
4.0 APG
2.0 BPG
1.4 SPG
2.4 TO

Jokic meanwhile has averaged 13 shots and 30 minutes per game for his CAREER.

18.5 PPG
9.8 RPG
6.0 APG
0.7 BPG
1.1 SPG
2.6 TO

The point isn't really even to compare Nurk to Jokic, but to prove that the more he’s involved, the better he is. Big brain Terry never embraced that simple concept. I realize fouls might’ve influenced minutes, but our whole defensive scheme was pretty much the same as our offensive scheme, except instead of Dame save us, it was Nurk save us. Hopefully the new system is a little bit more creative than that and everything isn’t dumped on one guys shoulders.

Billups seems like he has a lot more faith and trust though, so I’m fully expecting a career year for Nurk. He’s definitely got the skill set to be an All-star caliber player.
 
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wizenheimer said:
Nurk has been playing organized basketball for 15 years. It seems like a tall order to change ingrained habits in just one training camp.
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Scalma said:
Only once has Nurk gotten more than 30 minutes and 12 shots per game; in the bubble.

In those 8 games:

17.6 PPG
10.3 RPG
4.0 APG
2.0 BPG
1.4 SPG
2.4 TO

Jokic meanwhile has averaged 13 shots and 30 minutes per game for his CAREER.

18.5 PPG
9.8 RPG
6.0 APG
0.7 BPG
1.1 SPG
2.6 TO

The point isn't really even to compare Nurk to Jokic, but to prove that the more he’s involved, the better he is. Big brain Terry never embraced that simple concept. I realize fouls might’ve influenced minutes, but our whole defensive scheme was pretty much the same as our offensive scheme, except instead of Dame save us, it was Nurk save us. Hopefully the new system is a little bit more creative than that and everything isn’t dumped on one guys shoulders.

Billups seems like he has a lot more faith and trust though, so I’m fully expecting a career year for Nurk. He’s definitely got the skill set to be an All-star caliber player.
Click to expand...
thank+gif.gif
 
wizenheimer said:
again, last season, Portland's offensive on/off rating was -1.1 when Nurkic was on the floor. It was +6.2 when Kanter was on the floor

at the end of the season Nurkic was tied with Powell for 4th on the team in FGA/possession. He was also 4th on the team in usage rate. So, it's not like he didn't have a substantial offensive role. Melo was ahead of him in both and CJ was hogging way too much offense so sure, there's some free space there.
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Good thing we have more seasons to use as a sample size besides just the last. I feel like his usage last season was probably his lowest since in Portland. I could be wrong however. The stats show us that our field goal % as well as our 3 point % goes up when Nurk is given ample opportunity to create.
 
AmirIcon said:
Maybe you're reading them upside down?
Click to expand...

Nope. When the Blazers ran the offense through Nurk and tried to force feed him on the block they were #15 in offensive efficiency. Last year they were #2 in offensive efficiency. There is no doubt that Nurk's poor TS% and poor assist/bad-assist ratios are not indicators of efficient offense.

There is a lot to love about Nurk, but anyone that believes he can be the fulcrum of the offense without massive changes is deluding themselves. These changes might come from new Billups offensive schemes or Nurk's improvements - but they might not.
 
andalusian said:
Nope. When the Blazers ran the offense through Nurk and tried to force feed him on the block they were #15 in offensive efficiency. Last year they were #2 in offensive efficiency. There is no doubt that Nurk's poor TS% and poor assist/bad-assist ratios are not indicators of efficient offense.

There is a lot to love about Nurk, but anyone that believes he can be the fulcrum of the offense without massive changes is deluding themselves. These changes might come from new Billups offensive schemes or Nurk's improvements - but they might not.
Click to expand...

damn, better let Chauncey Billups know someone says he’s deluding himself.
 
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AmirIcon said:
The stats show us that our field goal % as well as our 3 point % goes up when Nurk is given ample opportunity to create.
Click to expand...

you're drawing an unproven correlation though. The shooting percentages were up when he was on the floor, but that does not mean they were up because he was creating offense. It could have been him simply being on the floor a lot with Dame

you're correct that his usage and FGA/possession were lower than his recent norms though. I think part of that was Melo taking possessions, and the addition of Powell. Maybe also due to missed games and trying to reintegrate into the offense after coming back
 
We were consistently among the leaders in the league in attempting contested shots the past five years. Drove me insane how rudimentary our offense was and how much Dame bailed us out. He has admitted a bunch of times how difficult his attempts are and contribute to his mediocre 3pt%.

I can't wait to see what Chauncey can do to help this and implement a system to get easier shots.

Even Powell's corner 3% went downhill after the trade here. It's not just a coincidence.
 
illmatic99 said:
We were consistently among the leaders in the league in attempting contested shots the past five years. Drove me insane how rudimentary our offense was and how much Dame bailed us out. He has admitted a bunch of times how difficult his attempts are and contribute to his mediocre 3pt%.

I can't wait to see what Chauncey can do to help this and implement a system to get easier shots.

Even Powell's corner 3% went downhill after the trade here. It's not just a coincidence.
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I'd imagine Dame's shot are always going to be high contested. Teams just won't lose track of him too often
 
Scalma said:
damn, better let Chauncey Billups know someone says he’s deluding himself.
Click to expand...

If he is going to do the same and expect different results, he certainly is.

But, maybe he is not. Maybe he has a scheme to unlock him - or the psychological ability to do so. Time will certainly tell.
 
Scalma said:
Fentress is an idiot but his stock is up. For whatever reason I trust his reporting when it’s based on sources. It’s when he gives his own takes where I’m out.
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Helps his credibility when he gets actual quotes.

I like this:

Billups believes he could help Lillard become better on the defensive end and install an offensive system that both maximizes his abilities while easing some of the burdens he carries as a scorer.

Billups said he’s had conversations with Lillard along those lines, as well as about his feelings moving forward, but chose to keep the specifics confidential. However, Billups said that the greatest players still want to be coached and that Lillard still wants to be coached.

“I think that’s one of the reasons why he wanted a former player and a point guard was to have somebody who could maybe understand where he’s … has been in his shoes and can help him advance,” Billups said. “So, that was probably part of the reason why he was on board with me being here.”
 
Scalma said:
Only once has Nurk gotten more than 30 minutes and 12 shots per game; in the bubble.

In those 8 games:

17.6 PPG
10.3 RPG
4.0 APG
2.0 BPG
1.4 SPG
2.4 TO

Jokic meanwhile has averaged 13 shots and 30 minutes per game for his CAREER.

18.5 PPG
9.8 RPG
6.0 APG
0.7 BPG
1.1 SPG
2.6 TO

The point isn't really even to compare Nurk to Jokic, but to prove that the more he’s involved, the better he is. Big brain Terry never embraced that simple concept. I realize fouls might’ve influenced minutes, but our whole defensive scheme was pretty much the same as our offensive scheme, except instead of Dame save us, it was Nurk save us. Hopefully the new system is a little bit more creative than that and everything isn’t dumped on one guys shoulders.

Billups seems like he has a lot more faith and trust though, so I’m fully expecting a career year for Nurk. He’s definitely got the skill set to be an All-star caliber player.
Click to expand...

The only reason he didn't play over 30 mins in 2021 playoffs was that he couldn't stay out of foul trouble. His fga were lower due to how we run the offense, but i'm pretty sure Stotts wanted to play him even 35-40 minutes if that was possible as he didn't trust Kanter at all during playoffs.

In my opinion Nurk is as much to blame as Stotts. he hasn't proven to be reliable for whatever reason. He has been unlucky too, but certainly not reliable.
 
remember that this is the same S5 who let a backcourt of Austin Rivers coming of the streets and Campazzo beat them
 
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