CJ McCollum is Jamal Crawford

[wizenheimer]

A guy that can create his own shot at will is more valuable than any stats you can conjure up say to the contrary.

what a surprise, once again it's the "stats-are-useless-if-they-don't-match-my-bias" argument.

the value of one-on-one offense is there if the player can create his own offense at good efficiency, and that explicitly includes an ability to get to the FT line. CJ just doesn't do that. Now, I can't find the Synergy stats at NBA.com that track play types. Of course, that may be because the NBA doesn't use Sportsvue this season

last season, CJ was in the 79th percentile in PnR ball handler and isolation scoring. In other words, more than 20% of the NBA were better at those 'one-on-one' plays

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/4/...all-hog-does-it-matter-portland-trail-blazers

again, that was for last season but I have seen nothing to indicate that he's doing any better this season

he was really weak in off screen plays, and horrible in handoff and transition. If you combine PnR, transition, off-screen, isolation, and hand-off, that was 80% of CJ's shots, shots where arguably he dribbled into them; and he was somewhere around the 70th percentile on that offense. About 30% of the NBA was better. Unfortunately, while he couldn't even crack the 80th percentile in efficiency in any of those potential create-own- offense categories, he was in the 96th percentile in salary

if you draw a line at 400 minutes played, CJ currently ranks 103rd in PER; 182nd in eFG%; 190th in TS%; and 157th in winshares/48. Out of the 187 players in the NBA with a box plus/minus of -1.0 or better CJ ranks 181st. And, he ranks 123rd in real plus/minus

this all adds up to a big problem when somebody tries to insist that CJ has some magical value that transcends his stats. The reality is this: CJ is 19th in the NBA in salary; he's 17th in the NBA in guaranteed contract balance; and he's 18th in the NBA in FGA's. Yet, when you apply an gauges, other than PPG, that actually tries to measure efficiency and impact, CJ can't crack the top-100 in any of them and except for one, can't even climb into the top-120. I guess it's no wonder why anybody trying to cling to the notion that CJ has great value is determined to ignore stats

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

what a surprise, once again it's the "stats-are-useless-if-they-don't-match-my-bias" argument.

the value of one-on-one offense is there if the player can create his own offense at good efficiency, and that explicitly includes an ability to get to the FT line. CJ just doesn't do that. Now, I can't find the Synergy stats at NBA.com that track play types. Of course, that may be because the NBA doesn't use Sportsvue this season

last season, CJ was in the 79th percentile in PnR ball handler and isolation scoring. In other words, more than 20% of the NBA were better at those 'one-on-one' plays

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/4/...all-hog-does-it-matter-portland-trail-blazers

again, that was for last season but I have seen nothing to indicate that he's doing any better this season

he was really weak in off screen plays, and horrible in handoff and transition. If you combine PnR, transition, off-screen, isolation, and hand-off, that was 80% of CJ's shots, shots where arguably he dribbled into them; and he was somewhere around the 70th percentile on that offense. About 30% of the NBA was better. Unfortunately, while he couldn't even crack the 80th percentile in efficiency in any of those potential create-own- offense categories, he was in the 96th percentile in salary

if you draw a line at 400 minutes played, CJ currently ranks 103rd in PER; 182nd in eFG%; 190th in TS%; and 157th in winshares/48. Out of the 187 players in the NBA with a box plus/minus of -1.0 or better CJ ranks 181st. And, he ranks 123rd in real plus/minus

this all adds up to a big problem when somebody tries to insist that CJ has some magical value that transcends his stats. The reality is this: CJ is 19th in the NBA in salary; he's 17th in the NBA in guaranteed contract balance; and he's 18th in the NBA in FGA's. Yet, when you apply an gauges, other than PPG, that actually tries to measure efficiency and impact, CJ can't crack the top-100 in any of them and except for one, can't even climb into the top-120. I guess it's no wonder why anybody trying to cling to the notion that CJ has great value is determined to ignore stats

Not really argueing the stats here, but how did 400 minutes become the arbitrary line? So far on the years he's at 1532. I honestly have no idea how he ranks if you use 1000 minutes as the arbitrary cut off vs 100 just seems like a weird place to draw the line.

 

[wizenheimer]

Not really argueing the stats here, but how did 400 minutes become the arbitrary line? So far on the years he's at 1532. I honestly have no idea how he ranks if you use 1000 minutes as the arbitrary cut off vs 100 just seems like a weird place to draw the line.

ok...I'll double it to 800 min. That 'narrows' if down to 198 players, which is less than 7 players a team

* 85th in PER
* 130th in eFG%
* 138th in TS%
* 107th in assist rate
* 112th in winshares/48

* and, in box plus/minus, 142nd of the 145 players who have a BPM of -1.0 or better

it really doesn't make it look any better, and that would still be the case if it was 1000 minutes....or 1200

the median is 99th, and the only stat CJ cracks the median is the one most influenced by raw production, and since CJ is 18th in the league in FGA's, his PER is going to get a bump compared to the other gauges

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

ok...I'll double it to 800 min. That 'narrows' if down to 198 players, which is less than 7 players a team

* 85th in PER
* 130th in eFG%
* 138th in TS%
* 107th in assist rate
* 112th in winshares/48

* and, in box plus/minus, 142nd of the 145 players who have a BPM of -1.0 or better

it really doesn't make it look any better, and that would still be the case if it was 1000 minutes....or 1200

the median is 99th, and the only stat CJ cracks the median is the one most influenced by raw production, and since CJ is 18th in the league in FGA's, his PER is going to get a bump compared to the other gauges

Like I said I wasnt really making an arguement just wasnt sure what the reasoning was for picking 400 minutes. Thanks for the rest of these numbers though.

 

[jlprk]

And to the cat above that said Jamal had no handles.......MOTHERFUCKER PLEASE! He has one of the deadliest crossovers in the history of the league.

I missed that post. Link?

 

[mook]

I think there are three big takeaways for me in this thread I hadn't considered:
1. CJ is probably worth his contract (per yuyuza's stats) for a team that can use him in a Dame role, but it's a very non-obvious move that will get second guessed by everyone for any GM that goes for him BECAUSE....
2. His current overall stats make him really overpaid by wizenheimer's numbers.
3. It's a valid point that CJ isn't really Crawford in terms of skillset (beyond handles and one-on-one shot creation.) But I stand by my point that in the player arch of where they are in their careers at age 27, they seem to be in a similar space.

One other thing I'd add is that our core offense has rapidly changed from "two guards chucking" to "PG/C pick-and-roll." As Nurk's offensive game continues to improve, it's only going to be more of the team identity. We had that other identity for so long that I have a hard time believing we'll ever fully embrace the new model with CJ still around.

I have to admit I've wanted to trade CJ for several years now, so I'm not really coming into any new conclusions here. But I do think the argument for trading him only improves as the team evolves (and we use up more of Dame's prime years).

 

[illmatic99]

In a CJ trade, I want what OKC got out of Oladipo. Everyone was going a bit mad about how Kevin Pritchard got yet another Pritchslap last year when he landed both Oladipo and Sabonis but now that the the dust has settled, Paul George has shown to be the far superior talent. He has a legitimate shot at first team all NBA this year amongst competition like Lebron/KD/Kawhi/Giannis.

If we were to trade CJ, this is my baseline. Use Collins as our Sabonis analog.

What disgruntled superstar (who has hinted at possibly leaving in free agency) can we get for CJ+Collins? Anthony Davis is screaming out to me, but he's probably too good.

 

[TBpup]

Seemingly obvious question, what are CJ's stats when Dame doesn't play?

 

[illmatic99]

Seemingly obvious question, what are CJ's stats when Dame doesn't play?

Scroll up!

Alright here it is: I found 20 games in which CJ has played without Dame over the past three years.

CJ is averaging 26.9 pts, 4.9 rebs, 5.3 asts, 2.8 TO in 36.4 mpg.

For good measure: I found a TS% calculator. CJ is at 57%.

That's no Jamal Crawford.

 

[hoopsjock]

In a CJ trade, I want what OKC got out of Oladipo. Everyone was going a bit mad about how Kevin Pritchard got yet another Pritchslap last year when he landed both Oladipo and Sabonis but now that the the dust has settled, Paul George has shown to be the far superior talent. He has a legitimate shot at first team all NBA this year amongst competition like Lebron/KD/Kawhi/Giannis.

If we were to trade CJ, this is my baseline. Use Collins as our Sabonis analog.

What disgruntled superstar (who has hinted at possibly leaving in free agency) can we get for CJ+Collins? Anthony Davis is screaming out to me, but he's probably too good.

Or that player could turn out to be Jimmy Butler and tear the team apart.

 

[illmatic99]

Lowe suggested it last week, but even if there's a sniff of validity to the idea that Ben Simmons won't last in Philly, I'd be on a call with Elton Brand.

CJ/Collins/Simons/ unprotected 2019 1st for Simmons/ Fultz/ Chandler

Given their pitiful offensive spacing, I think CJ would be tremendous in a duo with Embiid. And this gets them out of the Fultz contract, who is on the hook for 3 more seasons and at this point is probably just a salary dump. A Simmons/Dame/Nurk trio is a pipedream but fun to think about.

 

[tlongII]

Do NOT deal CJ just for the sake of dealing CJ. He's an excellent player. I think we can make this team work with the right coaching strategies.

 

[TBpup]

"20 games in which CJ has played without Dame over the past three years.

CJ is averaging 26.9 pts, 4.9 rebs, 5.3 asts, 2.8 TO in 36.4 mpg.

For good measure: I found a TS% calculator. CJ is at 57%."

@yuyuza1 ....perfect, thank you. Just what I was looking for and as suspected. CJ would be better as 'The Man'. He does not have that opportunity here and as a #2, his unique ability is limited and by trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, you get some of the issues that many have taken umbrage with.

Now, can you get someone back that won't have CJ's scoring ability but that still can score but makes the team better in other ways in terms of ball movement, defense etc?

 

[Pinwheel1]

lol...the reason Simmons had him that high is because he doesn't watch him every game.

The irony in that is we all do the same thing with players we want to trade....for.
We see the highlights for certain players and not the whole 48 minutes.

 

[hoopsjock]

Lowe suggested it last week, but even if there's a sniff of validity to the idea that Ben Simmons won't last in Philly, I'd be on a call with Elton Brand.

CJ/Collins/Simons/ unprotected 2019 1st for Simmons/ Fultz/ Chandler

Given their pitiful offensive spacing, I think CJ would be tremendous in a duo with Embiid. And this gets them out of the Fultz contract, who is on the hook for 3 more seasons and at this point is probably just a salary dump. A Simmons/Dame/Nurk trio is a pipedream but fun to think about.

If we had a chance at Ben Simmons I'd flip him to New Orleans for AD.

 

[illmatic99]

If we had a chance at Ben Simmons I'd flip him to New Orleans for AD.

Am I crazy for valuing Simmons higher than AD?

 

[hoopsjock]

Am I crazy for valuing Simmons higher than AD?

Probably, but I get why someone would.

I just think AD is a 1000 times better fit with Dame than Simmons is.

 

[illmatic99]

Probably, but I get why someone would.

I just think AD is a 1000 times better fit with Dame than Simmons is.

Simmons is like Magic redux in my mind. Their rookie year stats are identical.

League is trending towards big lead guards/forwards. Big men like Davis are getting marginalized in the new NBA -- he's putting up massive numbers, but still isn't really winning.

I feel like 5 yrs from now, Giannis/Luka/Ben will be destroying everyone and become mainstays in the finals every year. He has no jumper outside of 12 feet right now and he's putting up a near triple double nightly on ridiculous efficiency. I still don't get why Philly is building around Embiid and not Simmons. You have to work so hard to get Embiid the ball in crunch time while Simmons can get a board and go. Annnnd, we'd have him on contract for at least 6 more years while AD can still up and leave in 2.

 

[handiman]

In a CJ trade, I want what OKC got out of Oladipo. Everyone was going a bit mad about how Kevin Pritchard got yet another Pritchslap last year when he landed both Oladipo and Sabonis but now that the the dust has settled, Paul George has shown to be the far superior talent.

Problem is, the people here who want Carmelo, are probably the same ones who didn't see that Carmelo is the reason the PG trade didn't look great for OKC last year. PG was never the problem, and Oladipo was never the better player. OKC gave up too much depth for a poor fitting piece in Carmelo. The lynching would be immediate here.

 

[wizenheimer]

In a CJ trade, I want what OKC got out of Oladipo. .

it's not going to happen though with Olshey at the helm, but it sure looks like Portland could have at least been competitive when Indiana was shopping PG13. They had CJ and they had three 1st round picks. But of course, Olshey came out and said the Blazers were trying to get PG13 without giving up CJ which is the same thing as saying "we think CJ is as valuable as PG13", which is the same thing as not trying. It was ridiculous then and it's even more ridiculous now

certainly, we don't know what value the Pacer front office would have put on CJ + picks vs Oladipo + Sabonis. But it's worth keeping in mind all this was taking place right after CJ had his career year, which is really looking like an aberration. But that was when CJ was at the apex of his trade value.

and thinking about which would be better, a Dame-CJ-Nurkic trio or a Dame-PG-Nurkic trio, it's a no-brainer choice, even if it would have cost Zach. And the same it true for Dame-Kawhi-Nurkic, assuming the Spurs had any interest in CJ when Derozan was available; or Dame-Butler-Nurkic

but now, expecting the same return that OKC got from Oladipo is loopy....sorry. CJ does not have the value now that Oladipo + Sabonis did then. It's not close. And CJ is pretty obviously overpaid compared to Oladipo. In other words, if that's what you expect and that reflects the thinking in the Blazer FO, then we will have 2 more years of the Dame/CJ pairing, and two more years of Dame's prime will be invested in a back court experiment that pretty obviously isn't working well enough to matter, and likely never will

 

[Propagandist]

Everyone must have me on ignore for harping on the fact before it was a popular topic... I've been saying for like 4 years, CJ and Dame are redundant players that will keep the franchise from succeeding to the level their individual talents would suggest.

Is this the place to point out that "I told you so" is akin to "please validate me"? Who gives a shite. Furthermore, the CJ/Dame pairing has been perplexing the fan base since draft day 2013; you ain't alone...

Maybe I'm being too rude. Sorry. Let me rephrase: Neat-o.

 

[wizenheimer]

Is this the place to point out that "I told you so" is akin to "please validate me"? Who gives a shite. Furthermore, the CJ/Dame pairing has been perplexing the fan base since draft day 2013; you ain't alone...

Maybe I'm being too rude. Sorry. Let me rephrase: Neat-o.

one man's rude is another man's truth? 'Rude' seems like an eye of the beholder thing...kind of a coin toss

for instance, 50% of my household thinks my wife is rude; the other 50% thinks I need adult supervision...apparently

 

[Lanny]

The comparisons have never been more obvious.

Shorter, not as good a passer, but otherwise the exact same player. After Crawford turned 29, he was never a starter ever again. Think the Knicks wished they'd traded him when he was a few years younger?

Much like Crawford, CJ will have a role in the league for another decade. But not as a starter on a good team. You sub him in early in the first quarter, and if he's hot you roll with him, and if he's not you move on to the next option.

We can't do that with CJ now that he's been a starter for so long. So you have to trade him somewhere where he'll be forced to accept that role. The problem we have is that while there will be options, the trade returns on a 28 year old Crawford who is owed $53m over the next two years aren't going to be fantastic.

No way. Like Felton, Crawford was a quitter. He didn't like the coach and therefor quit on the team. You could tell he went into games wanting us to lose. He was part of that epic blowout by New York in a game against us. He was also much taller than CJ.

I couldn't compare Crawford to CJ in a million years.

 

[hoopsjock]

it's not going to happen though with Olshey at the helm, but it sure looks like Portland could have at least been competitive when Indiana was shopping PG13. They had CJ and they had three 1st round picks. But of course, Olshey came out and said the Blazers were trying to get PG13 without giving up CJ which is the same thing as saying "we think CJ is as valuable as PG13", which is the same thing as not trying. It was ridiculous then and it's even more ridiculous now

certainly, we don't know what value the Pacer front office would have put on CJ + picks vs Oladipo + Sabonis. But it's worth keeping in mind all this was taking place right after CJ had his career year, which is really looking like an aberration. But that was when CJ was at the apex of his trade value.

and thinking about which would be better, a Dame-CJ-Nurkic trio or a Dame-PG-Nurkic trio, it's a no-brainer choice, even if it would have cost Zach. And the same it true for Dame-Kawhi-Nurkic, assuming the Spurs had any interest in CJ when Derozan was available; or Dame-Butler-Nurkic

but now, expecting the same return that OKC got from Oladipo is loopy....sorry. CJ does not have the value now that Oladipo + Sabonis did then. It's not close. And CJ is pretty obviously overpaid compared to Oladipo. In other words, if that's what you expect and that reflects the thinking in the Blazer FO, then we will have 2 more years of the Dame/CJ pairing, and two more years of Dame's prime will be invested in a back court experiment that pretty obviously isn't working well enough to matter, and likely never will

There is a little bit of hindsight at play here. Oladipo had a pretty sub-par year for OKC. He had signed a big extension on his rookie deal (not quite as much as CJ but close). He hadn't done much with his opportunity to lead a team when with Orlando. During that summer Oladipo was thought of as about to be overpaid and about on the level CJ is now. Sabonis was pretty bad his rookie year. He played in 81 games at just over 20 minutes a game (so not a small sample size) and he shot under 40% from the field (which is awful for a PF/C) and had a TS% of 46.9%. His TRB% was awful too. Some (most?) of that for both players you can attribute to the stat chasing of Westbrook but c'mon man you can't honestly sit here and pretend like Oladipo and Sabonis had that much value that summer.

 

[wizenheimer]

There is a little bit of hindsight at play here. Oladipo had a pretty sub-par year for OKC. He had signed a big extension on his rookie deal (not quite as much as CJ but close). He hadn't done much with his opportunity to lead a team when with Orlando. During that summer Oladipo was thought of as about to be overpaid and about on the level CJ is now. Sabonis was pretty bad his rookie year. He played in 81 games at just over 20 minutes a game (so not a small sample size) and he shot under 40% from the field (which is awful for a PF/C) and had a TS% of 46.9%. His TRB% was awful too. Some (most?) of that for both players you can attribute to the stat chasing of Westbrook but c'mon man you can't honestly sit here and pretend like Oladipo and Sabonis had that much value that summer.

I didn't argue that. I did say I didn't really know what value Indiana placed on Oladipo and Sabonis

maybe CJ would have had better value than Oladipo, but I do know that Indiana's front office really seems to value defense but who knows if CJ's recent season would have trumped that. It wasn't going to trump the inclusion of Sabonis who was the 11th pick a year before and still had 3 years left on his rookie deal

but I'm not sure what it is you are arguing here?

my main point was that it's entirely possible that Olshey's man-love for CJ cost Portland a chance at PG13; and maybe Butler and Kawhi. Can't know for sure obviously but there are plenty of tea leaves floating in open sight. My other point was that if Portland is holding out on trading CJ until they get offered a player like PG13 they will be waiting a damn long time

 

[handiman]

Is this the place to point out that "I told you so" is akin to "please validate me"?

Like I would be pining for validation from someone with your attitude? Feel free to browse through my posting history and analyze my track record on player and fit evaluation... I don't feel the need for external approval. So no, your equivalency is false.

Who gives a shite. Furthermore, the CJ/Dame pairing has been perplexing the fan base since draft day 2013; you ain't alone...

Really, that's a new one to me? I remember most people loving the pairing, especially with CJ in the combo guard role off the bench behind Wes.

 

[hoopsjock]

I didn't argue that. I did say I didn't really know what value Indiana placed on Oladipo and Sabonis

maybe CJ would have had better value than Oladipo, but I do know that Indiana's front office really seems to value defense but who knows if CJ's recent season would have trumped that. It wasn't going to trump the inclusion of Sabonis who was the 11th pick a year before and still had 3 years left on his rookie deal

but I'm not sure what it is you are arguing here?

my main point was that it's entirely possible that Olshey's man-love for CJ cost Portland a chance at PG13; and maybe Butler and Kawhi. Can't know for sure obviously but there are plenty of tea leaves floating in open sight. My other point was that if Portland is holding out on trading CJ until they get offered a player like PG13 they will be waiting a damn long time

Collins was the 10th pick and has 2.5 years left on his deal. CJ still has Oladipo pre-Indiana value. That is my point and the point of the post you were responding to.

 

[tlongII]

I can tell you unequivocally that CJ McCollum is NOT Jamal Crawford. They are separate distinct individuals.

 

[illmatic99]

There is a little bit of hindsight at play here. Oladipo had a pretty sub-par year for OKC. He had signed a big extension on his rookie deal (not quite as much as CJ but close). He hadn't done much with his opportunity to lead a team when with Orlando. During that summer Oladipo was thought of as about to be overpaid and about on the level CJ is now. Sabonis was pretty bad his rookie year. He played in 81 games at just over 20 minutes a game (so not a small sample size) and he shot under 40% from the field (which is awful for a PF/C) and had a TS% of 46.9%. His TRB% was awful too. Some (most?) of that for both players you can attribute to the stat chasing of Westbrook but c'mon man you can't honestly sit here and pretend like Oladipo and Sabonis had that much value that summer.

Exactly.

Pritchard was universally berated for making that trade. Revisionist history to think otherwise.

 

[illmatic99]

Look at this thread: http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/paul-george-to-okc.316690/

People were considering Oladipo and his contract worse than Allen Crabbe and his. VO was awful and generally considered to have a shit contract before going to Indy.



Rumored to be a deal surrounding Harkless.