Climate change and wildfire in the Pacific Northwest

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barfo said:
Maybe that's a good place to start, then. CFD is in fact a big part of global climate modeling.

barfo
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Really. Well temperature does effect viscosity, and enough drag can affect temperature. Do you have those projections?
 
People have come out and attributed a lot of things to "climate change" when there is no evidence that it's something that has been trending upward over a long period of time, or related to CO2 levels.

There's no question that humans are causing increased levels of CO2, and that CO2 affects climate. But what would happen if we stopped all co2 emissions tommorow? Does anyone really know? Climate scientists decades ago believed we were heading towards another ice age, based on the former trends. If the Co2 is preventing us from going to an ice age that would actually be a good thing.
 
May I ask what wildfires in "Republican" areas have to do with anything? What is the OP's point?
 
r6oEhvS.jpg
 
I have absolutely no idea whether our emissions are the primary driver of global warming/climate change. However, I do know that there is no amount of reduction of those emissions to which the primary polluters will agree. We could agree to curb ours dramatically and our economy would collapse because neither China nor India would agree to reduce theirs. They would take what manufacturing jobs we have left and keep running their economies on carbon-based fuels.
 
maxiep said:
I have absolutely no idea whether our emissions are the primary driver of global warming/climate change. However, I do know that there is no amount of reduction of those emissions to which the primary polluters will agree. We could agree to curb ours dramatically and our economy would collapse because neither China nor India would agree to reduce theirs. They would take what manufacturing jobs we have left and keep running their economies on carbon-based fuels.
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It's worst than that. If the US stopped all emissions period, it would make very little differnce in the overall emissions. Besides that, the inter glacial cycle would continue on track if every nation ceased all emissions.
 
From MARIS' article:

Fire season in West so far is below expectations

Widespread drought across the West had forecasters expecting an above-average wildfire season this summer, which so far has not lived up to expectations.

(Forecasters got it wrong, as usual).
 
Further said:
Good luck getting through to folks, but it won't work. A few weeks ago there was a similar thread about how May was the warmest one in recorded history globally. But the deniers have too much invested in their beliefs. They say facts aren't facts, research is bogus, and all ivestigators who have findings they don't agree with, are lying cheats. There is no discussion to be had when the other side has the wonderful argument of 'nah ahh, no way'. Good luck, but I'm out of this, they win.
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We had a record cold spell in Oregon last winter. Doesn't that mean that warming doesn't exist?

Go Blazers
 
Denny Crane said:
From MARIS' article:

Fire season in West so far is below expectations

Widespread drought across the West had forecasters expecting an above-average wildfire season this summer, which so far has not lived up to expectations.

(Forecasters got it wrong, as usual).
Click to expand...

Republicans are being targeted by climate change, or something.
 
PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN 6) — With more than three months to go in this year’s fire season, Oregon has already spent $20 million, which has spurred Oregon Senator Ron Wyden to push for hundreds of millions more in national wildfire funding.

Wyden spoke at a briefing in Portland Saturday, in which he offered solutions for how to deal with – and pay for – Oregon’s wildfire crisis.

Wyden said his top priority is to convince lawmakers in Washington, D.C. to approve $615 million for prevention and firefighting efforts.

“I don’t have to tell you these fires are bigger and stronger and more damaging,” said Wyden. He said he expects the bill, which would provide $615 million, to be through the Senate this week.
 
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/26/coolest-summer-on-record-in-the-us/

Coolest Summer On Record In The US
Posted on July 26, 2014 by stevengoddard

The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has been plummeting for 80 years, and 2014 has had the lowest frequency of 90 degree days through July 23 on record. The only other year which came close was 1992, and that was due to dust in the atmosphere from Mt Pinatubo.

screenhunter_1349-jul-26-16-57.gif
 
Am I the only one who supports climate change? Portland is too damn cold.
 
Denny Crane said:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/26/coolest-summer-on-record-in-the-us/

Coolest Summer On Record In The US
Posted on July 26, 2014 by stevengoddard

The frequency of 90 degree days in the US has been plummeting for 80 years, and 2014 has had the lowest frequency of 90 degree days through July 23 on record. The only other year which came close was 1992, and that was due to dust in the atmosphere from Mt Pinatubo.

screenhunter_1349-jul-26-16-57.gif
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That graph looks more like random noise then any sort of trend to me.
 
We are having a bit of a thunderstorm this morning. We rarely have thunderstorms here. Surely it's man made global warming!
 
Looks like it going to be a rough year for wildfires in the NW. State of Emergency declared in Washington and Oregon
 
Treaty_of_Batum said:
Looks like it going to be a rough year for wildfires in the NW. State of Emergency declared in Washington and Oregon
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I wonder how much of that is a problem created by poor forest management, and how much is because of warming of the earth? (Not being snarky....I don't know, and don't know how one would figure it out conclusively.)

Go Blazers
 
oldguy said:
I wonder how much of that is a problem created by poor forest management, and how much is because of warming of the earth? (Not being snarky....I don't know, and don't know how one would figure it out conclusively.)

Go Blazers
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Harvesting forestry is a deterrent to massive wildfires. In 1988, most of the southern half of Yellowstone Park burned because that's what happens in nature, cyclically.

Speaking of models...

Park service policy since 1972 had been to allow naturally caused fires to burn out on their own. Officials had grown to trust computer models constructed from years of data that guided them on when to let natural fires go and when to put them out.

But by mid-July of that dry summer, parks officials realized the fires would not burn out as the formulas had predicted and indeed were spreading at an astonishing rate.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/booming/lessons-from-the-yellowstone-fires-of-1988.html?_r=0
 
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oldguy said:
I wonder how much of that is a problem created by poor forest management, and how much is because of warming of the earth? (Not being snarky....I don't know, and don't know how one would figure it out conclusively.)

Go Blazers
Click to expand...


I don't know which either. In fact in the debate of global warming, I don't think this year's wildfires is going to be proof of global warming (there is so much other reliable data to show there is global warming but understand many debate that evidence). So I'll go with poor forest management or maybe lack of funds. But apparently it is a bad yr in NW for forest fires with lots of damage. I guess it's just a start of wildfires season so hopefully it doesn't continue. So far, lots of homes destroyed . . . costly yr for NW

This year's fire season started early, due to unusual heat and drought conditions, he said. It has already far outstripped the number of acres burned in an average year. In 2013, wildfires in Washington burned over 152,603 acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). On Sunday, Washington's Carlton Complex Fire alone grew to nearly 300,000 acres.

"It's a really rough start," Goldmark said.



http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...fires-incinerates-homes-in-pacific-northwest/
 
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It's hard to make sense out of the claims about the 'worst'. In 2002, the Biscuit Fire alone burned 500,000 acres.

Go Blazers
 
oldguy said:
It's hard to make sense out of the claims about the 'worst'. In 2002, the Biscuit Fire alone burned 500,000 acres.

Go Blazers
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"Above average" = panic mode and try to blame it on humans. If AGW were to blame, wouldn't there be a progression of these events steadily increasing each year?
 
NewsSource said:
"Above average" = panic mode and try to blame it on humans. If AGW were to blame, wouldn't there be a progression of these events steadily increasing each year?
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That's why I'm not convinced that man has anything to do with it. It would seem to me that if their theory were correct, ever increasing levels of CO2 would result in ever increasing warming. From what I've seen/heard, temps have held pretty steady for over 10 years.

I'm open to man playing a part, but I'm having a hard time buying in. The scientists have hidden data, and corrupted the initial data....leaves me shaking my head.

Go Blazers
 
oldguy said:
That's why I'm not convinced that man has anything to do with it. It would seem to me that if their theory were correct, ever increasing levels of CO2 would result in ever increasing warming. From what I've seen/heard, temps have held pretty steady for over 10 years.

I'm open to man playing a part, but I'm having a hard time buying in. The scientists have hidden data, and corrupted the initial data....leaves me shaking my head.

Go Blazers
Click to expand...

Humans obviously are adding CO2 to the atmosphere. What that means in terms of climate is unknown. CO2 0.04% of the atmosphere. I find it hard to believe that the fractional increase of CO2 by humans to the overall atmosphere is having devastating effects on the Earth. It defies credulity. If anything, it should mean plants are thriving, since extra precipitation has been blamed on AGW, too, along with droughts.
 
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From that same article I posted before:

This level of fire activity is consistent with what the Pacific Northwest may have to contend with more as climate change intensifies. The National Climate Assessment, released this year, stated that warmer and drier conditions have already increased the frequency and intensity of fires in Western forests since the 1970s.

Under a scenario where emissions increase through 2050 and gradually decrease afterward, the assessment predicts that the median area burned each year in the Northwest could quadruple, reaching 2 million acres annually by the 2080s. However, this figure is expected to vary significantly depending on fuel conditions, it said.

Severe fire conditions are also being felt in other regions of North America. Unusually warm and dry weather, also consistent with climate change, has spurred wildfires in well over 2 million acres of Canada's Northwest Territories
 
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