Contrary to Popular Belief...

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

salary dumps usually happen due to expiring contracts or consolidations for youth.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

I for one am starting to ask myself - what single player can we add that would indeed "make a difference" in 09-10?

I think that addion is G. Wallace.


I think the ONLY way to get him will be found through a 3-way deal that involves Utah (Boozer dump); Rights to Claver and 2010 1st Round pick from Portland to Utah; Travis to Cats; Boozer to Bobcats, along with Utah's 2011 1st Round pick; G.Wallace to Portland.

Bobcats get Boozer + Outlaw + Utah's 2011 #1 pick;
Utah dumps Boozer salary and gets Rights to Claver + Portland's 2010 #1 pick;
Portland gets our man = G. Wallace

IF this can happen via "trade" - I might stay put with cap space and begin the season.


Blake/Bayless/Mills
Roy/Rudy
Wallace/Batum/Webs
LMA/Pendergraph
Oden/Pryz

good summer (we moved Travis and said goodbye to Sergio) AND kept serious cap space for 6.30.10 - where we nab our PG if Bayless isn't showing us anything. If Bayless is our pleasant surprise - then we look for a Baner PF for the play-off run.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think those of us, at least me, that keep bashing on Portland not doing anything is affraid of this.......

KP has shown he does not like to make trades during the season, and doesn't want to let "his guys" go in a trade. He tends to shoot too high, like when he didn't want to trade for Devin Harris because they wanted Travis.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I PROMISE you that was not on the table.

Maybe something like Harris + us taking on Carter and/or Simmons' contracts while sending out Outlaw, Bayless, Batum, Picks, cash, RLEC, etc.

Regardless, we're a VERY attractive team to trade with. We have a TON of talent on rookie contracts, an owner w/ deep pockets and cap space. We WILL get good offers.

I would not promise that.

Portland would have had to take back some ugly salary, but only would have needed to give up Travis and Sergio off of their playing rotation.


This ugly salary would have been off of the books a lot sooner than Hedo would have been, and we would have had Harris. KP didn't do it because he thought he was doing someone too big of a favor in saving NJ a bunch of money.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Personally, I think people are too hung up on the notion that we might make the "wrong" move. You can find some risk in almost any deal. Paralysis by analysis.

There is no such thing as making the wrong deal.

Every deal has an equal chance of being successful and of being a total failure. Portland could trade Steve Blake for Lebron James, and in the first game of the year James could go down with a career ending injury. We already know that there are better people in the same possitions as Outlaw, Blake, Joel, Rudy, so why not use those to strengthen a possition of need?

Rudy and Travis for Harris let's say hypothetically. If Harris doesn;t work and Rudy becomes a star does that mean it was the wrong trade? No.

 

[ucatchtrout]

i don't think they need to do something with the space. the space is there and is a good thing to have because it presents a lot of opportunities.

When opportunity knocks......you answer the door.

 

[ucatchtrout]

yes. its a guessing game, which is why I said it was fucking stupid to plan for cap space 2 years from now if you aren't targeting a TOP player and there is some interest there.

And you were right. Hard to believe that two years ago Hedo was the target.

There is no plan.

 

[Mediocre Man]

And you were right. Hard to believe that two years ago Hedo was the target.

There is no plan.

It's more than hard to believe. You simply can't believe it.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The negative is that it's not necessarily worth anything.

When the Randolph trade was made, the "future cap space" argument was used as a reason for why the deal was done. Some of us have never been fans of the trade, and part of it was because of doubt of the present value (at the time) of future cap space. There were too many variables, we argued, to count "future cap space" as a valuable asset.

Time is ticking on the once-future cap space and whether it will bring the Blazers any value.

I'm not as extreme as Eric about the uselessness of future cap space, but I understand why, after a couple of years of hearing about how great it would be, he's feeling slightly (if slightly prematurely) justified in consistently questioning those who lauded it.

Ed O.

Put another way...

Free Agency Cap Space Christmas only comes along every 5 or so years in Blazerville. We've made some questionable moves because we've been told "We're saving $ for a great Christmas!" So, we've waited. Well, Christmas Eve (RLEC) came and went, no presents. "It's early!" we were told. Christmas day came "I tried to buy you an expensive SF, but it didn't work out, and there's nothing left in the mall worth buying. I'll buy you something Christmas night."

So, it's Christmas night and we didn't get anything and Christmas isn't coming for another 5 years. Sure, we could still get something tonight (by training camp) or by new year's eve (midseason trade deadline), but it is most certainly TIME TO FREAK OUT!

 

[LittleAlex]

There is no such thing as making the wrong deal.

Every deal has an equal chance of being successful and of being a total failure. Portland could trade Steve Blake for Lebron James, and in the first game of the year James could go down with a career ending injury. We already know that there are better people in the same possitions as Outlaw, Blake, Joel, Rudy, so why not use those to strengthen a possition of need?

Rudy and Travis for Harris let's say hypothetically. If Harris doesn;t work and Rudy becomes a star does that mean it was the wrong trade? No.

This really isn't true.

The Pau deal WAS the wrong deal for Memphis. It really didn't have any upside, other then Memphis turning Pau Gasol into cap space which they then used on Z-Bo.

Pau for Z-Bo? That IS making the wrong deal.

 

[RickyRubio]

I'd have bought your story based on KPs reputation until the Turkoglu fiasco. Now I'm not so sure about him.

huh? You think that it is KPs fault we didn't get Turk? Turk used us to get a better deal out of Toronto. Get a clue man.

 

[KingSpeed]

So YES!!!!!! ABSOLUTELY we need to make a move to continue to improve this team. NOBODY ANYWHERE is saying we DON'T. But KP WILL wait until the right offer comes along.

Just keep this in mind. Cleveland, LA, San Antonio, Toronto, Orlando, Dallas, Detroit... they've ALL made moves because their championship is closing and they're making one last stab at things. We on the other hand were [essentially] the youngest team in the league, and last season we won home-court advantage playing THE MOST DIFFICULT NBA SCHEDULE IN HISTORY!

A) When was Toronto's window open?

B) How was our schedule the most difficult? We played the same schedule as every team in the West. 3-4 games against West teams. 2 games against East teams.

 

[KingSpeed]

Oh and Cleveland's window will be wide open for as long as LeBron is there. L.A.'s window isn't closing any time soon. Nor is Orlando's. Howard's only what? 22? 23?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Oh and Cleveland's window will be wide open for as long as LeBron is there. L.A.'s window isn't closing any time soon. Nor is Orlando's. Howard's only what? 22? 23?

I absolutely hate PhilJax, but it's not clear that when he leaves LAL will still be on top.

 

[hasoos]

are you serious?

He is very serious. If you actually look at KP's record, he had the one good year where he drafted Roy and Aldridge, who are really the horses that carry this team. You can interswitch most of the pieces around them, it is up to them to get the W most of the time. Now go to the next year. What did KP do? He lucked out and got the #1 pick and took Oden. I still think it was a good move, but time will tell. He picked up Rudy with a late pick bought from Phoenix.

That was over 2 years ago.

Exactly what has KP done since then?

Right now, unless Bayless turns into a special player, he hasn't really done a whole hell of a lot. He doesn't have one trade to his name that brought back veteran talent, ever. All of his trades have been for draft pick.


I think the problem I have with it right now, is that he is running the team like San Antonio, when SA has a distinct advantage of having a winning basketball program to lure free agents into their fold. The difference being, San Antonio is negotiating from a position of strength when attracting vets, and the Blazers, are not.

 

[RickyRubio]

So, it's Christmas night and we didn't get anything and Christmas isn't coming for another 5 years. Sure, we could still get something tonight (by training camp) or by new year's eve (midseason trade deadline), but it is most certainly TIME TO FREAK OUT!

Time to freak out? *edited*

There is never an appropriate time to 'freak out' ... if you *edited*

 

[Mediocre Man]

This really isn't true.

The Pau deal WAS the wrong deal for Memphis. It really didn't have any upside, other then Memphis turning Pau Gasol into cap space which they then used on Z-Bo.

Pau for Z-Bo? That IS making the wrong deal.

But they didn't have to use it on Stat-Bo. So in a sense, if their plan was to add cap space for a player and use it on someone like Milsap or Lee then I think that is a good trade for them. Marc Gasol and David Lee is a really good return for Pau Gasol.

 

[RickyRubio]

But they didn't have to use it on Stat-Bo. So in a sense, if their plan was to add cap space for a player and use it on someone like Milsap or Lee then I think that is a good trade for them. Marc Gasol and David Lee is a really good return for Pau Gasol.

Some of you guys are so naive, its comical.

Jerry West HANDED Pau over to the Lakers, so they would be good again. Not to clear space up for the Grizz. He did it for the Lakers, not his team. You really think Jerry West, or anyone else in the league (Stern, or fans) wants to see the Grizz win? No. They would all rather see the Lakers.

 

[hasoos]

Some of you guys are so naive, its comical.

Jerry West HANDED Pau over to the Lakers, so they would be good again. Not to clear space up for the Grizz. He did it for the Lakers, not his team. You really think Jerry West, or anyone else in the league (Stern, or fans) wants to see the Grizz win? No. They would all rather see the Lakers.

Jerry West wasn't in charge then man.

 

[ucatchtrout]

Time to freak out? *edited*

There is never an appropriate time to 'freak out' ... if you *edited*

Actually that quote came from Wizard Mentor not me dude.

However it is appropriate to point out that Paul Allen directed KP to "upgrade the roster THIS offseason" just a couple of weeks ago. I posted the quote in the other thread.

Obviously its not an impossible task. Other teams have been able to do this.

We haven't.

 

[Ed O]

Jerry West wasn't in charge then man.

Don't be naive. Jerry West is in charge of everything.

Always.

Ed O.

 

[maxiep]

It's my hope we're going to wait for the cap holds to clear off our cap calculation before we make a deal. We'll have a little over $10MM at that point and can make a seriously lopsided deal. I then hope we make a 2-1 or 3-1 bench-clearing deal.

It's apparent that KP doesn't like to make in-season deals, but we don't really have a choice. Even if it means fewer wins this year as the team has to figure out the new chemistry, it will be worth it in the long run.

 

[ucatchtrout]

Some of you guys are so naive, its comical.

Jerry West HANDED Pau over to the Lakers, so they would be good again. Not to clear space up for the Grizz. He did it for the Lakers, not his team. You really think Jerry West, or anyone else in the league (Stern, or fans) wants to see the Grizz win? No. They would all rather see the Lakers.

The Grizz didn't give Pau to the Lakers as a favor to them. They did it because they have a cheap owner, who has worked hard to figure out how to make money in a small market. Making money is his goal. Not winning. Making money is number one on his business plan. Not winning. Unlike other owners who are in it for publicity, or because they can afford an expensive toy the bottom line is what he cares about most.

I always gave Michael Heisley credit for being the first guy to figure out that the prevailing NBA economic model of the last quarter century died around 2005-2006, even though he figured it out in haphazard fashion. The old model was to buy a franchise in an underperforming city with an old arena, sustain annual operating losses, move to a new city and get a new arena built, sell lots of tickets to the new arena in the new city having spent money on some decent players – and then leverage the new arena into a sale of the team for more than it was actually worth on operational basis cranking out a nice profit over and above the acquistion cost and the intervening operating losses.



Heisley followed that traditional playbook only to find out that no one with actual financial wherewithal would pay him more than the team’s actual worth – which meant that Heisley would not make a substantial (if any) profit by selling the team given the acquisition cost and significant operating losses incurred through 2005-2006. So Heisley got out in front of the rest of the League (which realized this in the past 12 months) and started slashing payroll, so the Grizzlies would operate like a normal business whereby revenues needed to exceed expenses each year.



In the course of operating in that manner, Heisley became a master of profiting off of the Salary Cap and Luxury Tax woes of other teams by capitalizing on the Grizzlies’ available capspace.



I am deeply sympathetic to the notion of running the team at a profit and believe that maneuvering around the Cap & Tax rules to do so was deft business – particularly when accumulating young talent in accordance with Heisley’s self-proclaimed 3-Year Plan. But as a fan you get savvy to the maneuvering too.



The pressure was starting to build on Heisley to spend the necessary dollars to sign a desperately needed Power Forward to help accelerate the Grizz on court success (off the court they were profitable this past year). And the Randolph trade is going to portrayed as Heisley’s commitment to spending money in order to win (or in this case lose).



It’s a ruse. Don’t believe it. When the Grizzlies flipped Darko’s $7.5 million contract for QRichardson’s $9.35 million contract, the Knicks gave them “Cash Considerations” – presumably the roughly $1.85 million difference between their contracts (but possibly up to $3 million). By trading Richardson without ever paying him, that cash is on hand and offsets Randolph’s salary. Presumably now the Grizzlies will rescind Hakim Warrick’s $3.02 million qualifying offer now that Randolph is added to Darrell Arthur and DeMarre Carroll. So Darko’s contract plus the Richardson cash plus the rescinded Warrick contract equals $12.37 million – only $3.63 million less than Randolph’s $16 million contract.


But in case you are thinking that $3.63 million is nothing to sneeze at – the Grizz are still well below the Salary Cap and it is quite possible that the Grizz need those additional Randolph dollars to be paid in order to make sure they exceed the NBA minimum salary requirements (particularly since Greg Buckner is going to be bought out or traded too).
The same holds true for 2010-2011 where Heisley is actually absorbing all $17.3 million of Randolph’s salary. The current cumulative salaries of the Grizz players (all but Jaric and Randolph are on rookie or small contracts) require that somebody get paid big dollars in 2010-2011 in order to be in compliance with the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

So Heisley isn’t spending big money. He is spending the minimum money he is required to spend and rather than pursue a Free Agent for a 4 or 5 year deal, he traded for a 2-year red herring under the guise of getting a 20&10 guy – but really just fulfilling his minimum economic requirements with only short term exposure and no regard for the impact on the basketball court (or the impact on the fanbase).

And that is the dirty little secret of the NBA that Heisley figured out this year. If you keep your salaries between the NBA minimum and $50 million (and the Grizz will not go over $50 million this year or next), keep your front office expense low and do a good job of renting out your CapSpace and available roster spots to Capped Out and Taxed Out teams, then you can be profitable on annual basis even in a small market and even without fans and even with only making a pretense of caring about winning. And that is a safer economic approach than investing in long term talent and hoping to increase revenues by generating wins and ticket sales.
http://www.3sob.com/archives/40-july-2009/547-randolph-reaction-con

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The Grizz didn't give Pau to the Lakers as a favor to them. They did it because they have a cheap owner, who has worked hard to figure out how to make money in a small market. Making money is his goal. Not winning. Making money is number one on his business plan. Not winning. Unlike other owners who are in it for publicity, or because they can afford an expensive toy the bottom line is what he cares about most.

Interesting quote, thanks. It sounds like the old San Diego Padres model.

However, you don't answer the question "Why the Lakers?" Surely at least 10 other teams would have taken Pau for Small. There weren't even rumors at the time. It's not like they put Pau on the block and waited for the highest bidder - my recollection (which could be faulty, admittedly) was that the deal caught EVERYONE by surprise. Under those conditions, it is not difficult to be a Conspiracy Theorist.

 

[Ghost Pepper]

For what it's worth..... Turk was looking for money and a place to make his wife happy! He's a paycheck player, not a winner. He did us a huge favor!!!!!

Yes the Spurs and Lakers all got better, but the Blazers weren't going to win the west next year anyway! The Spurs, Suns, and Mavs only have one year left. They are done after this coming season and eveyone can see that. This is a throw it for the endzone pass for he Spurs and that team will be sold off for scrap the year after next.... Don't be surprised if we don't end up with Parker and Pop the following year! The Mavs and Suns are going to limp through this year, and the only real fun will be watching Kobe and Artest not kill each other on the court. HAHA

So I think it's conservative to say that we could be a 3rd or 4th seed this year depending on the Nuggs, know matter who we trade for or not.


Anybody think that D Wade could be the person KP is waiting on...... Wade is not happy in what he sees in Miami and he'd take a hell of alot of pressure of Brandon. Just a thought!

 

[RickyRubio]

Jerry West wasn't in charge then man.

Really? Because he has been the GM for Memphis since 2002 till 2007. Pau was traded in the 2007-08 season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_West

 

[RickyRubio]

The Grizz didn't give Pau to the Lakers as a favor to them. They did it because they have a cheap owner, who has worked hard to figure out how to make money in a small market. Making money is his goal. Not winning. Making money is number one on his business plan. Not winning. Unlike other owners who are in it for publicity, or because they can afford an expensive toy the bottom line is what he cares about most.

I don't care what the article says. 90% of shit you read about sports is not true.

 

[Minstrel]

KP has shown he does not like to make trades during the season, and doesn't want to let "his guys" go in a trade. He tends to shoot too high, like when he didn't want to trade for Devin Harris because they wanted Travis.

Citing a rumour as a fact isn't compelling.

There is no such thing as making the wrong deal.

Every deal has an equal chance of being successful and of being a total failure. Portland could trade Steve Blake for Lebron James, and in the first game of the year James could go down with a career ending injury.

You have an odd definition of the word "equal." There isn't an equal chance of a James for Blake swap being successful for Portland or a total failure. There's a chance that it could work out badly for Portland, but a very tiny one. The overwhelming likelihood is that it would be an amazing win for Portland.

I agree that process is the issue, not results (when judging any single decision), but that's not the same thing as "there is no such thing as making the wrong deal." There absolutely are wrong/bad deals.

 

[glazeduck]

It's amazing how quickly threads spiral out of control anymore...

I just want to say one thing, then I'm done, I think w/ this entire board for awhile...

I started this thread to talk about how people were over-reacting to a minor bump in the Blazers plan and how we still have plenty of options left at our disposal before before we freak out. OBVIOUSLY it was disappointing to not have a better offseason, but one offseason doesn't define a franchise, and it won't make or break this dynasty that we're continuing to build. I've come to the conclusion that some people just WANT to be miserable, angry and frustrated. Fine, be that way. Why make any effort to look at potential positives when it's so easy to blame everyone in charge for things that didn't happen - whether those were in your head, or rumors on the internet. CLEARLY you all have a perfect concept of the options out there and would have ALL made better moves than KP, it's SO OBVIOUS TO ME NOW that you could do a better job than Pritchard!

Jesus. No fucking wonder Oregon has the highest suicide rate in the country.

 

[alex42083]

Jesus. No fucking wonder Oregon has the highest suicide rate in the country.

This board ain't that bad, is it?