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CupWizier said:
Don't you think it's rather hypocritical to complain about a poster for not showing any links to data when you clearly provided no links for your data? I find it comical.
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"Enthusiasm"?...still trying to figure that one out. Not sure how that could be when Biden is leading by double digits in most NATL polls.
 
magnifier661 said:
You are absolutely right. There were many “conservatives” that held their nose and voted for Trump.

This election is much harder for Democrats than 2016 imo because I believe independent voters had much higher confidence that Hillary would run the country than the current group that doesn’t have that confidence in Biden.

Once we start having debates, I suspect that’s when you will start seeing Trump pull away from Biden. He doesn’t have the mental fortitude to go toe to toe with Trump (again, my opinion).
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Trump is not a debater, he's not a speaker, he's only good at misinformation, lies, and insulting people...none of which are compelling.
 
Some of the shit you hear from Republicans. A cousin of mine on Facebook posted his theory that Bill Gates and Fauci are buddies and colluding to spread the Coronavirus in an elaborate attempt to have people micro chipped.

Uh wtf

He grew up in the south and believes being liberal is a mental illness. Yet both his parents are staunch Democrats

The stupidity that the far right brings out of people is mind boggling
 
Hoopguru said:
Just watched Browns c-19 open up address.
Presented frame work but no specifics other than increase testing and tracking. A lot of generalities and zero timelines or criteria.
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data is incomplete because of a lack of testing, now and earlier

the trends for Oregon are encouraging:

upload_2020-4-14_12-3-6.png

https://public.tableau.com/profile/...origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false

Brown today:

" Brown said efforts made by the state have helped to flatten the curve of the coronavirus spread. She said her framework for restarting public life and business in the state is driven by science and has three prerequisites:


  1. Slowed growth: fewer cases of COVID-19
  2. Adequate PPE to protect health care workers and first responders
  3. A robust public health framework: increased testing, contact tracing and effective isolation
The governor said she couldn't give a specific time frame for when the state will begin to ease COVID-19 restrictions.

"This is going to move much slower than any of us want, but that is the only way to protect the health and safety of Oregonians," Brown tweeted.

so, criteria #1 is looking decent

as for criteria #2, adequate PPE in Oregon, I have no clue where you'd find that info

criteria #3 is the big variable. In a state of 4.2M people, what is an adequate level of testing 10%? 5%?....I don't know. Seems like 5% might be a decent baseline. That would be 200,000 tested and we've only tested a shade over 30,000 so far

maybe she was being purposefully vague, or maybe Oregon, like just about every state is flying blind because of the massive testing failures
 
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yankeesince59 said:
"Enthusiasm"?...still trying to figure that one out. Not sure how that could be when Biden is leading by double digits in most NATL polls.
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we should use the right wingers talking point

iStock-933763038.jpg
 
lol @ the idea that Trump is good in debates.

Well, he lies and talks over people. And he's rude.

That makes him a good debater?
 
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Here’s the actual article directing to that polling data
MickZagger said:
Some of the shit you hear from Republicans. A cousin of mine on Facebook posted his theory that Bill Gates and Fauci are buddies and colluding to spread the Coronavirus in an elaborate attempt to have people micro chipped.

Uh wtf

He grew up in the south and believes being liberal is a mental illness. Yet both his parents are staunch Democrats

The stupidity that the far right brings out of people is mind boggling
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omg, I’ve seen that too. Something about some dude name Qanon from 8-chan
 
magnifier661 said:
You are absolutely right. There were many “conservatives” that held their nose and voted for Trump.

This election is much harder for Democrats than 2016 imo because I believe independent voters had much higher confidence that Hillary would run the country than the current group that doesn’t have that confidence in Biden.

Once we start having debates, I suspect that’s when you will start seeing Trump pull away from Biden. He doesn’t have the mental fortitude to go toe to toe with Trump (again, my opinion).
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Trumps going to get smashed in the debates. Even by a senile old timer like Biden.

Unlike 2016 Trump actually has a record to glean over.

As bad as it is to fathom but the fringe voter who swayed Trump in 2016, thinks he done a fucked up job handling this pandemic, the economy is trash and was heading that way before covid.

I’m sure Trump will be a dick though during the debates and interrupt him a lot spouting off fake news fake news while his sheeple hold onto their boners.
 
magnifier661 said:
It’s the Wapo/NBC actual polling data.
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Tried to find it actually published on wapo/nbc websites,...can't find it and again, the dates seems odd. Also, not sure about the "enthusiasm" stat...how can Trump currently be so far ahead in that stat when most national polls show Biden leading Trump by a good bit ?
 
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yankeesince59 said:
Tried to find it actually publish on wapo/nbc websites,...can't find it and again, the dates seems odd. Also, not sure about the "enthusiasm" stat...how can Trump currently be so far ahead in that stat when most national polls show Biden leading Trump by a good bit ?
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I believe it’s the “hold your nose” voter. They will support Biden, but not too happy about it.
 
MickZagger said:
Trumps going to get smashed in the debates. Even by a senile old timer like Biden.

Unlike 2016 Trump actually has a record to glean over.

As bad as it is to fathom but the fringe voter who swayed Trump in 2016, thinks he done a fucked up job handling this pandemic, the economy is trash and was heading that way before covid.

I’m sure Trump will be a dick though during the debates and interrupt him a lot spouting off fake news fake news while his sheeple hold onto their boners.
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I seem to remember you saying this same thing when Trump was debating Hillary and she was a way better debater than Joe could ever dream to be.

here we are, Trump being your president.
 
wizenheimer said:
data is incomplete because of a lack of testing, now and earlier

the trends for Oregon are encouraging:

View attachment 30738

https://public.tableau.com/profile/...origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false

Brown today:

" Brown said efforts made by the state have helped to flatten the curve of the coronavirus spread. She said her framework for restarting public life and business in the state is driven by science and has three prerequisites:


  1. Slowed growth: fewer cases of COVID-19
  2. Adequate PPE to protect health care workers and first responders
  3. A robust public health framework: increased testing, contact tracing and effective isolation
The governor said she couldn't give a specific time frame for when the state will begin to ease COVID-19 restrictions.

"This is going to move much slower than any of us want, but that is the only way to protect the health and safety of Oregonians," Brown tweeted.

so, criteria #1 is looking decent

as for criteria #2, adequate PPE in Oregon, I have no clue where you'd find that info

criteria #3 is the big variable. In a state of 4.2M people, what is an adequate level of testing 10%? 5%?....I don't know. Seems like 5% might be a decent baseline. That would be 200,000 tested and we've only tested a shade over 30,000 so far

maybe she was being purposefully vague, or maybe Oregon, like just about every state is flying blind because of the massive testing failures
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I know that they were tracking cases in the beginning but stopped as they couldn't keep up?
They have been sitting on test kits since the numbers started falling.
Both of these area's are now part of the three state plan.
 
magnifier661 said:
I seem to remember you saying this same thing when Trump was debating Hillary and she was a way better debater than Joe could ever dream to be.

here we are, Trump being your president.
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not even a talking point. At that point in time we hadn’t had 4 years of Trump turning the presidency into a mockery.

The Democratic Party was also disenfranchised at the time because of Bernie basically getting frauded out of it by Wasserman-Schultz.

Now there’s actually a record to go off of and a large number of people who hate Trump.

The rust belt got nothing Trump promised and like any election they make or break it for a President. Farmers are pissed at Trump too. But they make up such a small % of the voting block.

Biden has always been good at relating to the middle class. Blue collar workers.

So many differences between then and now
 
Meanwhile on Corona virus, from Florida:

The governor, same one who invited young folks to pack hotel rooms and bars for spring break, declared wrestling an essential function.

Cops in Miami handcuffed black doctor who tests and treats homeless was cuffed by cops in front of his house for no reason
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241922706.html

Well, there was a reason, of course, just not a crime, at least not by him.
 
MickZagger said:
not even a talking point. At that point in time we hadn’t had 4 years of Trump turning the presidency into a mockery.
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Sensationalism

The Democratic Party was also disenfranchised at the time because of Bernie basically getting frauded out of it by Wasserman-Schultz.
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I can pull all sorts of videos from Bernie supporters that still believe they were disenfranchised. There is division today from the AOC group to Pelosi.

Now there’s actually a record to go off of and a large number of people who hate Trump.
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There is also record that Trump actually accomplished what the Republican voters worried about. Tax laws, deregulation, trade deals, building the border wall (even with major resistance from the Democrats), Judges and rebuilding of the military. There was still a large number of people that hated Trump back in 2016. His unfavorables were much higher than they are currently.

The rust belt got nothing Trump promised and like any election they make or break it for a President. Farmers are pissed at Trump too. But they make up such a small % of the voting block.
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Seems his polling has been quite good in the rust belt states, but there hasn't been current polling on this matter.
https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3656

Biden has always been good at relating to the middle class. Blue collar workers.
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This is probably the one thing I can agree on. Biden does have that "Regular Joe" persona. Is it enough?
 
magnifier661 said:
I believe it’s the “hold your nose” voter. They will support Biden, but not too happy about it.
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That's makes no sense either, I mean how can you logically conduct a poll with those parameters ? And how can it therefore be logically used to make Trump to look more preferable than Biden?
 
illmatic99 said:
lol @ the idea that Trump is good in debates.

Well, he lies and talks over people. And he's rude.

That makes him a good debater?
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And he sniffles
 
yankeesince59 said:
That's makes no sense either, I mean how can you logically conduct a poll with those parameters ? And how can it therefore be logically used to make Trump to look more preferable than Biden?
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How doesn't it make sense. Trump's unfavorables were much higher than they were today in Nov. 2016 yet he won the Presidency.

Enthusiasm is a marker for supporters to go out of their way to volunteer, donate, get friends out to vote and spread the word. I think the polling is the feeling of not wanting Trump in office, but not excited enough to do the work to get him out.
 
magnifier661 said:
How doesn't it make sense. Trump's unfavorables were much higher than they were today in Nov. 2016 yet he won the Presidency.

Enthusiasm is a marker for supporters to go out of their way to volunteer, donate, get friends out to vote and spread the word. I think the polling is the feeling of not wanting Trump in office, but not excited enough to do the work to get him out.
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He won the presidency only because he was the only one on the ballot not namedHillary fucking Clinton.

And I'll answer your first question as did in my previous post; " how can you logically conduct a poll with those parameters ?"



 
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yankeesince59 said:
He won the presidency only because he was the only one on the ballot not name Hillary fucking Clinton.

And I'll answer your first as did in my previous post; " how can you logically conduct a poll with those parameters ?"
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So he won because they hated Hillary more?
 
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