OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting (1 Viewer)

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Orion Bailey said:
The only counter argument I get is trafficking. Okay we open up our state. Does that mean we still shouldn't leave it, lets say if WA remains in a lockdown? vice versa? How will that work and affect those living on borders like us and Vancouver. KC, NYC area, etc. Seems ion this regard, there needs to be more clarity on what can be done from state to state before any state opens anything, so the nation as a whole knows what is to be expected of them as we lift in increments.

With that said, this isn't going away and the longer we remain in lock down and increase the unemployment line and business shut downs the more deaths we will see due to poverty stricken homes. (suicides, unmaintained health issues, etc.)
When does the crossing point hit and we see that we may be costing more lives than not being in lock down?

I'm not saying this is the case, but numbers are numbers and the longer we stay in lockdown the closer we will be to that crossing point. If we haven't already hit it, we will eventually. It will eventually be inevitibe
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Reward versus risk has to be in play. Its the American way as many generations before us had to risk much along the way. This is terrible and the effect has been very sad, but we have to also affect a positive outcome for people to get back to some sort of normalcy and productivity. My hope is we improve and learn from this catastrophe that we can be better prepared down the road.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Considering "the curve" that needs to be flattened is hospitalizations, and you have no data thereupon, I would suggest that your assertion is baseless.

Also, if you read the article you linked, you'll note that the increase in confirmed cases "coincides with an increase in testing across the state. Since April 21, the state’s total tests have increased an average of nearly 7,800 tests each day." A larger number of tests will naturally lead to a larger number of confirmed cases, but that doesn't necessarily indicate increased spread. The claim that they're "not even close to 'flattening the curve' " is not supported by the evidence you've provided.
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if you're interested this website has a lot of data in sort-able categories, including hospitalizations:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

here is Tenn. in terms of the Covid positive per 1 million curve:

upload_2020-4-27_17-43-19.png

compared to Oregon:

upload_2020-4-27_17-44-32.png

now, that is only part of the puzzle, and you can get more data, by states, here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

when you go there you see that Tenn, has tested 23,531 people per 1 million compared to Oregon at 12,543 per million. Advantage Tenn. except that Oregon has tested 21.7 people for every positive compared to Tenn. at 15.6. I'm not really sure which is a better gauge

going back to the 1st site, you can sort for hospitalizations. Tenn, has 121 people hospitalized per million. Oregon has 129.5. That seems to give Tenn, an advantage except that I read, somewhere, in the last couple of days that Oregon counts covid patients in nursing homes while Tenn. doesn't. If that's true I don't know
 
wizenheimer said:
if you're interested this website has a lot of data in sort-able categories, including hospitalizations:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

here is Tenn. in terms of the Covid positive per 1 million curve:

View attachment 31130

compared to Oregon:

View attachment 31131

now, that is only part of the puzzle, and you can get more data, by states, here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

when you go there you see that Tenn, has tested 23,531 people per 1 million compared to Oregon at 12,543 per million. Advantage Tenn. except that Oregon has tested 21.7 people for every positive compared to Tenn. at 15.6. I'm not really sure which is a better gauge

going back to the 1st site, you can sort for hospitalizations. Tenn, has 121 people hospitalized per million. Oregon has 129.5. That seems to give Tenn, an advantage except that I read, somewhere, in the last couple of days that Oregon counts covid patients in nursing homes while Tenn. doesn't. If that's true I don't know
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What about hospitalizations and ICU beds need?
 
magnifier661 said:
What about hospitalizations and ICU beds need?
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well, I don't collect data, and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn (aren't they closed)

one problem is it is so hard to add relevant context because either the data is scattered all over the place, or simple not available

all these states opening early are flying blind. I think small population/large area states like Montana and Alaska probably have decent context behind the decisions to relax restrictions, but they are still taking a little bit of risk

states like Georgia and Texas are taking much bigger risks, and I think they are taking dumb risks because of politics

at the same time, the credibility of of experts has taken a bit of a hit because only a month or so ago, they were all saying there was going to be a massive ventilator shortage...that never materialized. They pretty obviously didn't account for the cooperation of people to stay at home orders, maybe overestimated the severity of covid and the resultant need for ventilators, and didn't anticipate plenty of hospitals determining that intubation was not always the best treatment. But that's the nature of an evolving crisis
 
wizenheimer said:
well, I don't collect data, and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn (aren't they closed)

one problem is it is so hard to add relevant context because either the data is scattered all over the place, or simple not available

all these states opening early are flying blind. I think small population/large area states like Montana and Alaska probably have decent context behind the decisions to relax restrictions, but they are still taking a little bit of risk

states like Georgia and Texas are taking much bigger risks, and I think they are taking dumb risks because of politics

at the same time, the credibility of of experts has taken a bit of a hit because only a month or so ago, they were all saying there was going to be a massive ventilator shortage...that never materialized. They pretty obviously didn't account for the cooperation of people to stay at home orders, maybe overestimated the severity of covid and the resultant need for ventilators, and didn't anticipate plenty of hospitals determining that intubation was not always the best treatment. But that's the nature of an evolving crisis
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There were a lot of mistakes early on. I think the ventilator settings in the beginning weren’t set right, causing more harm than good.
 
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...-morrison-s-coronavirus-probe-20200423-p54mpl

China consumer backlash looms over Morrison's coronavirus probe
77c9959d881628b332d4171c8cde03187f290f40

Andrew TillettPolitical correspondent
Apr 26, 2020 – 8.07pm
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Beijing's ambassador has warned the Morrison government that its pursuit of an independent inquiry into the coronavirus pandemic could spark a Chinese consumer boycott of students and tourists visiting Australia, as well as sales of popular agricultural exports like beef and wine.
 
Hoopguru said:
Reward versus risk has to be in play. Its the American way as many generations before us had to risk much along the way. This is terrible and the effect has been very sad, but we have to also affect a positive outcome for people to get back to some sort of normalcy and productivity. My hope is we improve and learn from this catastrophe that we can be better prepared down the road.
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The sad part is we DID have preparetions.

Trump just didn't care and fired them.
 
wizenheimer said:
if you're interested this website has a lot of data in sort-able categories, including hospitalizations:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

here is Tenn. in terms of the Covid positive per 1 million curve:

View attachment 31130

compared to Oregon:

View attachment 31131

now, that is only part of the puzzle, and you can get more data, by states, here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

when you go there you see that Tenn, has tested 23,531 people per 1 million compared to Oregon at 12,543 per million. Advantage Tenn. except that Oregon has tested 21.7 people for every positive compared to Tenn. at 15.6. I'm not really sure which is a better gauge

going back to the 1st site, you can sort for hospitalizations. Tenn, has 121 people hospitalized per million. Oregon has 129.5. That seems to give Tenn, an advantage except that I read, somewhere, in the last couple of days that Oregon counts covid patients in nursing homes while Tenn. doesn't. If that's true I don't know
Click to expand...
Excellent data/graphs. I would hesitate to compare virtually any state to Oregon, because our numbers have been some of the best in the country. But the graph shows pretty clearly that Tennesse has--contrary to yankee's assertions--done a pretty decent job themselves of flattening their curve.

Again, to reiterate my initial post, not saying that I agree with their decision to open up restaurants, but their numbers don't at all indicate incompetence.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Excellent data/graphs. I would hesitate to compare virtually any state to Oregon, because our numbers have been some of the best in the country. But the graph shows pretty clearly that Tennesse has--contrary to yankee's assertions--done a pretty decent job themselves of flattening their curve.

Again, to reiterate my initial post, not saying that I agree with their decision to open up restaurants, but their numbers don't at all indicate incompetence.
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Flattening the curve isn't the requirement to start opening a state up. It's suppose to be 14 days of the curve declining.
 
CupWizier said:
Flattening the curve isn't the requirement to start opening a state up. It's suppose to be 14 days of the curve declining.
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Again, to reiterate my initial post, not saying that I agree with their decision to open up restaurants, but their numbers don't at all indicate incompetence.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Again, to reiterate my initial post, not saying that I agree with their decision to open up restaurants, but their numbers don't at all indicate incompetence.
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Looks like they have decent capacity also.
 
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