hoopsjock
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2018
- Messages
- 16,302
- Likes
- 26,283
- Points
- 113
Let's examine what actually happened in Philly:
Hinkie took over in 2013. The 76ers were coming off a disappointing season in which they missed the playoffs after making it the previous two years. They had the #11 pick. On a side not we are starting with the #24 pick so not as good pick wise but in terms of value in trades I think we probably have a little more in terms of trade power with Dame and CJ. Hinkie traded their All-Star PG Jrue Holiday for the 6th pick in that draft and a top-5 protected pick in the 2014 draft.
2013 pick 6: Nerlens Noel (Bad Pick)
2013 pick 11: Michael Carter-Williams (Even though he sucks now I can't really call the ROY a bad pick and drafting him led to a good trade later)
The rest of that off season and season was spent signing a bunch of scrubs and trading vets for 2nd round picks.
19 wins
2014 pick 3: Joel Embiid (Great pick now)
2014 pick 12 (via New Orleans pick #10 and a trade with Orlando): Dario Saric (Great pick now)
The 2014 draft was the key to this whole thing. Both players have turned out great but without them not playing for two years it wouldn't have led to them being able to tank as well the following years. How do you think this fan base would treat a center drafted that high that didn't play for two years because of injury? The 76ers really wanted a top-2 pick to get Wiggins or Parker and while having the 2nd worst record fell to 3rd. During that summer they traded Thad Young to Minnesota as part of the Wiggins/Love trade for a top-10 protected 1st rounder in 2015. At the deadline they traded their best player (MCW) for what was basically the Lakers pick from Phoenix which was a really good asset. That trade was a great one considering how MCW has played since.
18 wins
2015 pick #3: Jahlil Okafor (Bad Pick)
That summer they made another great trade that you can only do if you have cap space. They took on a bunch of crap from the Kings for 1st round pick swap rights in the 2017 draft (which they used to move up from 5 to 3) and a 2019 unprotected 1st round pick. What a stupid trade for the Kings! The team was awful though that year
10 wins
At the end of that season they forced Hinkie out even though he had set the franchise up so well that even a bad GM could've succeeded. He was there for 3 seasons and his teams were 47-199. There is no doubt that Hinkie would have taken Ben Simmons so I count that as his pick too even though he wasn't there. At that point the tanking hadn't worked at all and Embiid and Saric hadn't even played yet.
Here is the main problem with Portland trying to duplicate it: If you make a good pick and get a game changer too early in the process you risk winning too many games and not getting a high enough pick the next year. So what do you do? Do you draft only projects that will take a couple years to develop but could flame out of the league? Do you take the best player and risk getting too good too fast? The 76ers had the absolute perfect storm of crap happening that turned to gold later on. How on Earth do you duplicate that? They wasted the #6 pick in the first year by taking Noel but by taking Noel they ensured being bad later on. How many players win ROY and then are almost out of the league a few years later but you just happened to trade him while he still had value? How many centers don't play for two years allowing them to tank even further and then all of a sudden when healthy become the next coming of Hakeem Olajuwon? Not to mention the fact that if they would have gotten a top-2 pick that year they wouldn't have Embiid right now they'd have Wiggins or Parker. How many international players wait two years to come over allowing your team to tank more? How many times does making another horrible pick at #3 the following year turn out to not devastate the franchise?
On top of all that they changed the lottery odds so starting in the 2019 draft there isn't as much value in tanking. What if we get the #1 pick and it isn't a year with a stud like Simmons? All of this is why it is way more likely to end up being the Kings or Suns at the end of this than the 76ers. It is also why I think getting lucky with a Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Rudy Gobert, Greek Freak, or Draymond Green outside of the lottery is just as likely if not more so. Despite making the playoffs the last 5 years the Blazers managed to get a lottery pick which they used on Collins. He's gotta become a good player (jury is still out) and Olshey has to hit a home run on a non lottery pick at some point. Last year with the 24th pick the Jazz managed to get up to 13 to get Donovan Mitchell and completely changed the route of their franchise. It is possible to improve still.
Hinkie took over in 2013. The 76ers were coming off a disappointing season in which they missed the playoffs after making it the previous two years. They had the #11 pick. On a side not we are starting with the #24 pick so not as good pick wise but in terms of value in trades I think we probably have a little more in terms of trade power with Dame and CJ. Hinkie traded their All-Star PG Jrue Holiday for the 6th pick in that draft and a top-5 protected pick in the 2014 draft.
2013 pick 6: Nerlens Noel (Bad Pick)
2013 pick 11: Michael Carter-Williams (Even though he sucks now I can't really call the ROY a bad pick and drafting him led to a good trade later)
The rest of that off season and season was spent signing a bunch of scrubs and trading vets for 2nd round picks.
19 wins
2014 pick 3: Joel Embiid (Great pick now)
2014 pick 12 (via New Orleans pick #10 and a trade with Orlando): Dario Saric (Great pick now)
The 2014 draft was the key to this whole thing. Both players have turned out great but without them not playing for two years it wouldn't have led to them being able to tank as well the following years. How do you think this fan base would treat a center drafted that high that didn't play for two years because of injury? The 76ers really wanted a top-2 pick to get Wiggins or Parker and while having the 2nd worst record fell to 3rd. During that summer they traded Thad Young to Minnesota as part of the Wiggins/Love trade for a top-10 protected 1st rounder in 2015. At the deadline they traded their best player (MCW) for what was basically the Lakers pick from Phoenix which was a really good asset. That trade was a great one considering how MCW has played since.
18 wins
2015 pick #3: Jahlil Okafor (Bad Pick)
That summer they made another great trade that you can only do if you have cap space. They took on a bunch of crap from the Kings for 1st round pick swap rights in the 2017 draft (which they used to move up from 5 to 3) and a 2019 unprotected 1st round pick. What a stupid trade for the Kings! The team was awful though that year
10 wins
At the end of that season they forced Hinkie out even though he had set the franchise up so well that even a bad GM could've succeeded. He was there for 3 seasons and his teams were 47-199. There is no doubt that Hinkie would have taken Ben Simmons so I count that as his pick too even though he wasn't there. At that point the tanking hadn't worked at all and Embiid and Saric hadn't even played yet.
Here is the main problem with Portland trying to duplicate it: If you make a good pick and get a game changer too early in the process you risk winning too many games and not getting a high enough pick the next year. So what do you do? Do you draft only projects that will take a couple years to develop but could flame out of the league? Do you take the best player and risk getting too good too fast? The 76ers had the absolute perfect storm of crap happening that turned to gold later on. How on Earth do you duplicate that? They wasted the #6 pick in the first year by taking Noel but by taking Noel they ensured being bad later on. How many players win ROY and then are almost out of the league a few years later but you just happened to trade him while he still had value? How many centers don't play for two years allowing them to tank even further and then all of a sudden when healthy become the next coming of Hakeem Olajuwon? Not to mention the fact that if they would have gotten a top-2 pick that year they wouldn't have Embiid right now they'd have Wiggins or Parker. How many international players wait two years to come over allowing your team to tank more? How many times does making another horrible pick at #3 the following year turn out to not devastate the franchise?
On top of all that they changed the lottery odds so starting in the 2019 draft there isn't as much value in tanking. What if we get the #1 pick and it isn't a year with a stud like Simmons? All of this is why it is way more likely to end up being the Kings or Suns at the end of this than the 76ers. It is also why I think getting lucky with a Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Rudy Gobert, Greek Freak, or Draymond Green outside of the lottery is just as likely if not more so. Despite making the playoffs the last 5 years the Blazers managed to get a lottery pick which they used on Collins. He's gotta become a good player (jury is still out) and Olshey has to hit a home run on a non lottery pick at some point. Last year with the 24th pick the Jazz managed to get up to 13 to get Donovan Mitchell and completely changed the route of their franchise. It is possible to improve still.
