there's no downside to it at all. At the same time, it seems pretty clear that none of those players, except for
maybe Watford & Eubanks, will be in the top-9 in the rotation. Maybe Dunn if Portland brings him back. If any are it would be, IMO, because the Blazers were unsuccessful at building a decent bench
I think that's a little too absolute. Sure, if for example,
the Blazers have a 7th pick and Atlanta would trade Collins for #7 + Bledsoe, that's worth the gamble
but if there's no player above the level of Grant available at the draft (which is when Portland has to decide), then the Blazers have to invest that pick in BPA/fit. If past drafts are the template, there are just about certain to be 2 or 3 players in this draft outside of the top 4 that could come in and be solid starters from day 1, or at least by mid-season or year 2. The trick is for the Blazers to identify them
2016:
7 Jamal Murray
11 Domantas Sabonis
19 Malik Beasley
20 Caris LeVert
27 Pascal Siakam
29 Dejounte Murray
36 Malcolm Brogdon
2017:
7 Lauri Markkanen
12 Luke Kennard
13 Donovan Mitchell
14 Bam Adebayo
19 John Collins
22 Jarrett Allen
23 OG Anunoby
27 Kyle Kuzma
30 Josh Hart
42 Thomas Bryant
45 Dillon Brooks
2018:
7 Wendell Carter Jr.
8 Collin Sexton
10 Mikal Bridges
11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12 Miles Bridges
14 Michael Porter Jr.
19 Kevin Huerter
24 Anfernee Simons
33 Jalen Brunson
34 Devonte' Graham
36 Mitchell Robinson
37 Gary Trent Jr.
2019:
7 Coby White
8 Jaxson Hayes
9 Rui Hachimura
11 Cameron Johnson
12 P.J. Washington
13 Tyler Herro
21 Brandon Clarke
28 Jordan Poole
29 Keldon Johnson
30 Kevin Porter Jr.
46 Talen Horton-Tucker
2020:
12 Tyrese Haliburton
15 Cole Anthony
19 Saddiq Bey
21 Tyrese Maxey
25 Immanuel Quickley
30 Desmond Bane
5 drafts in a row with plenty of gems available at 7 or lower, some of them already all-stars. Yeah, it will take some luck, but that's always a big factor in developing a winner. Memphis generated good luck with Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks. The Suns got real lucky with Booker, Bridges, Ayton and Cam Johnson. Maybe the worm has turned and the Blazers can get real lucky in this draft
besides that, I don't think it's a half season window for that luck to show. Portland appears committed to Dame and he appears committed to Portland so there is a 3-4 year window for some player to develop into a high level one. Simons is well on the way; maybe a 7th pick will have a faster timeline than Ant