Deandre Ayton appreciation post

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
wizenheimer said:
I think Ayton's recent PPG numbers have to be viewed with some important context:

his career FGA/game mark is 12.5; his mark for this season is 13.7, but that's accounting for his recent splurge; before that it was 11.6 FGA. In the last 14 games he's averaged 19.6 FGA; in the last 7 games it's 21.3; in the last 5 games, 23.2 FGA. So, in the last 14 games he's had a 57% increase in shots over his career mark; in the last 7 games a 70% increase; in the last 5 games, an 86% increase. That's a huge jump in usage

there are only 3 C's who average more than 16 shots: Embiid at 21.8; Jokic at 18.0; and Wemby at 16.6. Ayton is using an elite level of possessions over the last part of the season. Simons was shooting a lot when he was playing and his average was 18.2 FGA.

for comparison: Ayton averaging 23.6 points on those 19.6 FGA. If Nurkic had 19.6 FGA/game at his current production, he would average 25.8 points; Wemby 25.2 points; Jokic 28.9 points; Sengun 26.6 points
Click to expand...

Sometime jumper go in, sometime not.
 
Screen Shot 2024-04-12 at 10.01.09 AM.png

Deandre Ayton shoots higher from midrange than he does in the paint. 51% to 47%. That's actually so impressive.
 
wizenheimer said:
I think Ayton's recent PPG numbers have to be viewed with some important context:

his career FGA/game mark is 12.5; his mark for this season is 13.7, but that's accounting for his recent splurge; before that it was 11.6 FGA. In the last 14 games he's averaged 19.6 FGA; in the last 7 games it's 21.3; in the last 5 games, 23.2 FGA. So, in the last 14 games he's had a 57% increase in shots over his career mark; in the last 7 games a 70% increase; in the last 5 games, an 86% increase. That's a huge jump in usage

there are only 3 C's who average more than 16 shots: Embiid at 21.8; Jokic at 18.0; and Wemby at 16.6. Ayton is using an elite level of possessions over the last part of the season. Simons was shooting a lot when he was playing and his average was 18.2 FGA.

for comparison: Ayton averaging 23.6 points on those 19.6 FGA. If Nurkic had 19.6 FGA/game at his current production, he would average 25.8 points; Wemby 25.2 points; Jokic 28.9 points; Sengun 26.6 points
Click to expand...

Increasing Ayton's usage was exactly what I was hoping for and expecting as a result of the trade. The secret to Ayton has always been to get him involved, and the earlier the better. I am sure his percentages will go up when he is surrounded by players that move the ball and hit open shots. In Phoenix he was always a fourth or fifth option. He should be the first option on this bad Portland team UNTIL they develop a first option better at it than him. If Portland commits to the full rebuild, Ayton should average 25/12 next season, Scoot should average 10 assists and hopefully cut down on his turnovers. No idea what to expect from Shaedon and of course we have no idea what Portland will get out of the draft. I am not against Walker getting burn as a starter with Ayton. They seem to work well here at the end of the season. Ideally, he is a roll player in the future, but give him the minutes that nobody else is earning or deserving.
 
the Blazers were 7-27 (.259) without Ayton starting at Center last season.

the only "good team" Portland beat w/out Ayton was 1 victory over Sacramento (the Kings bricked up the farm, 10-42 from deep 23%)

the other 6 victories with no DA:
Utah
San Antonio
Brooklyn ×2
Memphis (in tank mode) ×2

while I'm not an analytics guru, and I don't understand advanced metrics. The eye test showed quite clearly ... the Blazers couldn't get much done without Deandre Ayton in the lineup.
 
Last edited:
Whyachi said:
the Blazers were 7-27 (.259) without Ayton starting at Center last season.

the only "good team" Portland beat w/out Ayton was 1 victory over Sacramento (the Kings bricked up the farm, 10-42 from deep 23%)

the other 6 victories with no DA:
Utah
San Antonio
Brooklyn ×2
Memphis (in tank mode) ×2

while I'm not an analytics guru, and I don't understand advanced metrics. The eye test showed quite clearly ... the Blazers couldn't get much done without Deandre Ayton in the lineup.
Click to expand...
I'm not an analytics guru either and I think Deandre is a solid starting C. That being said your post says that we were at .259 without DA and for the season we were .256. That means as far as wins and losses are concerned we were better without him. Obviously we were better with DA on the floor and a ton of things including the hard tank to end the season skews the numbers. I just don't think you can look at wins and losses last season as an indicator of who our best guys are going forward.
 
DA is a keeper in my view...between him and our new rookie big we should be able to really match up with any style of play. He's not even in his prime yet and I think with the right 9 man rotation he's going to win us ball games. This season will say a lot about his leadership on and off the court. I think he seems really happy to be in Blazer culture for a change. I think it speaks volumes that Chauncey and many Blazer front office staff went to see him play for the Bahamas in the Olympics. The guy is really talented. Paired with Clingan in the paint he slides right into Lamarcus Aldridge slot with the elbow jumper but he's a lot more mobile than LTrain was.
 
Whyachi said:
the Blazers were 7-27 (.259) without Ayton starting at Center last season.
Click to expand...

that's not accurate. He missed 27 games, not 34. The Blazers were 7-20 without him. You have the winning percentage without him correct (.259); you just double-counted wins and losses. The Blazers were 14-41 with him. That's a .254 winning percentage with Ayton

without Ayton 7-20 (.259)
without Grant 4-24 (.143)
without Simons 10-26 (.278)
without Brogdon 6-37 (.140)

winning percentages:

with Brogdon .384 (15-24)
with Grant .315 (17-37)
Blazers .256 (21-61)
with Ayton .254 (14-41)
with Simons .240 (11-35)

obviously, there was more going on all the time than just any single player missing a game. But it did look like the best player last season was Brogdon. The team just performed better when he was on the floor. That's not surprising as he was much better at organizing the offense than either Simons or Scoot
 
riverman said:
DA is a keeper in my view...between him and our new rookie big we should be able to really match up with any style of play. He's not even in his prime yet and I think with the right 9 man rotation he's going to win us ball games. This season will say a lot about his leadership on and off the court. I think he seems really happy to be in Blazer culture for a change. I think it speaks volumes that Chauncey and many Blazer front office staff went to see him play for the Bahamas in the Olympics. The guy is really talented. Paired with Clingan in the paint he slides right into Lamarcus Aldridge slot with the elbow jumper but he's a lot more mobile than LTrain was.
Click to expand...
He played a lot of 4 in college so I do expect to see him on the front line with Deni/Grant/Tou & The Block Lobster at various times.
 
Last edited:
wizenheimer said:
that's not accurate. He missed 27 games, not 34. The Blazers were 7-20 without him. You have the winning percentage without him correct (.259); you just double-counted wins and losses. The Blazers were 14-41 with him. That's a .254 winning percentage with Ayton

without Ayton 7-20 (.259)
without Grant 4-24 (.143)
without Simons 10-26 (.278)
without Brogdon 6-37 (.140)

winning percentages:

with Brogdon .384 (15-24)
with Grant .315 (17-37)
Blazers .256 (21-61)
with Ayton .254 (14-41)
with Simons .240 (11-35)

obviously, there was more going on all the time than just any single player missing a game. But it did look like the best player last season was Brogdon. The team just performed better when he was on the floor. That's not surprising as he was much better at organizing the offense than either Simons or Scoot
Click to expand...
Hmm... Interesting stats here.
 
Hoopguru said:
He played a lot of 4 in college so I do expect to see on the front line with Deni/Grant/Tou & The Block Lobster at various times.
Click to expand...

I watched Arizona several times when they had Ayton and Ristic starting. Sean Miller ran double post sets with those two. By formation and floor position it was generally two C's in opposite low-post boxes, not a C and PF. And on the other end the Wildcats went with zone defenses almost all the time. And Ristic floated outside quite a bit to give Ayton room in the paint.

those kinds of offensive sets and zone defenses won't work in the NBA too often. Just saying Ayton was a PF in college 7 years ago, when he really wasn't, doesn't mean he can consistently be one in the NBA, 7 years later. There's too much clutter in that equation
 
wizenheimer said:
I watched Arizona several times when they had Ayton and Ristic starting. Sean Miller ran double post sets with those two. By formation and floor position it was generally two C's in opposite low-post boxes, not a C and PF. And on the other end the Wildcats went with zone defenses almost all the time. And Ristic floated outside quite a bit to give Ayton room in the paint.

those kinds of offensive sets and zone defenses won't work in the NBA too often. Just saying Ayton was a PF in college 7 years ago, when he really wasn't, doesn't mean he can consistently be one in the NBA, 7 years later. There's too much clutter in that equation
Click to expand...
Whatever, I still think you will see him play some at 4, but thats just my opinion.

DeAndre Ayton to Arizona: Wildcats Land 5-Star PF ProspectBleacher Reporthttps://bleacherreport.com › College Basketball
 
wizenheimer said:
that's not accurate. He missed 27 games, not 34. The Blazers were 7-20 without him. You have the winning percentage without him correct (.259); you just double-counted wins and losses. The Blazers were 14-41 with him. That's a .254 winning percentage with Ayton

without Ayton 7-20 (.259)
without Grant 4-24 (.143)
without Simons 10-26 (.278)
without Brogdon 6-37 (.140)

winning percentages:

with Brogdon .384 (15-24)
with Grant .315 (17-37)
Blazers .256 (21-61)
with Ayton .254 (14-41)
with Simons .240 (11-35)

obviously, there was more going on all the time than just any single player missing a game. But it did look like the best player last season was Brogdon. The team just performed better when he was on the floor. That's not surprising as he was much better at organizing the offense than either Simons or Scoot
Click to expand...

correct, I was using win percentage.
7W 20L without Ayton.

my point was the much heralded "Blazers can beat playoff teams!" moments happened with Ayton roaming the paint.

Games with Reath & Walker at Center showed some interior defensive anomalies. Opponent chippies seemed to become more prevalent.

DA stats don't show a gazillion blocks per game. But i could tell Ayton's defensive presence was absent while flipping through some highlights.

It will be exciting to see Ayton & Clingan covering the paint. I think the Blazers defense really needed a boost in rim protection.
 
What would people be comfortable paying Ayton for his next extension?

I love the idea of having Ayton/Clingon as our frontcourt combo.
 
Natebishop3 said:
What would people be comfortable paying Ayton for his next extension?

I love the idea of having Ayton/Clingon as our frontcourt combo.
Click to expand...
fork it over Jody.

The Front Office says "we're focused on bringing a championship to Portland". If that's true, then 1st apron luxury tax can't be used as some type of imaginary torture chamber.
 
Whyachi said:
fork it over Jody.

The Front Office says "we're focused on bringing a championship to Portland". If that's true, then 1st apron luxury tax can't be used as some type of imaginary torture chamber.
Click to expand...

We still don't have a star. I'm not comfortable paying him star money at this point.
 
Hoopguru said:
Whatever, I still think you will see him play some at 4, but thats just my opinion.

DeAndre Ayton to Arizona: Wildcats Land 5-Star PF ProspectBleacher Reporthttps://bleacherreport.com › College Basketball
Click to expand...

I'm not saying the Blazers won't try it sometimes. Against certain teams running certain lineups it might work. But, most teams have very mobile PF's. The Clippers had PG13 and Kawhi; the Lakers had Lebron; Nuggets had Gordon; Mavs had PJ Washington and Derrick Jones; Pels had Zion; Celts had Tatum; Bucks had Giannis; Suns had Durant; Miami went with Butler

Ayton will be at a huge disadvantage on the perimeter against those guys. They will drag him out 20' from the rim because of their 3-pt threat, then dribble-drive around him like he's stuck in mud. And teams aren't stupid, they will scheme against Ayton and Clingan and make mismatches all over the floor. How about Lebron and AD in a 2 man game against Ayton and Clingan when both Blazers big men have ingrained drop-coverage instincts? Tatum & Porzingis? Butler & Adebayo?

on the offensive end, Ayton simply doesn't have the skills of modern NBA PF's. he doesn't have good handles and can't dribble-drive; he can't hit three's, or at least never has. His comfort zone is the low-box on the edge of the paint; Clingan's comfort zone is the paint. They will clog the paint and make it next impossible;e for Blazers drivers to penetrate. It's a poor mesh for a twin towers
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm not saying the Blazers won't try it sometimes. Against certain teams running certain lineups it might work. But, most teams have very mobile PF's. The Clippers had PG13 and Kawhi; the Lakers had Lebron; Nuggets had Gordon; Mavs had PJ Washington and Derrick Jones; Pels had Zion; Celts had Tatum; Bucks had Giannis; Suns had Durant; Miami went with Butler

Ayton will be at a huge disadvantage on the perimeter against those guys. They will drag him out 20' from the rim because of their 3-pt threat, then dribble-drive around him like he's stuck in mud. And teams aren't stupid, they will scheme against Ayton and Clingan and make mismatches all over the floor. How about Lebron and AD in a 2 man game against Ayton and Clingan when both Blazers big men have ingrained drop-coverage instincts? Tatum & Porzingis? Butler & Adebayo?

on the offensive end, Ayton simply doesn't have the skills of modern NBA PF's. he doesn't have good handles and can't dribble-drive; he can't hit three's, or at least never has. His comfort zone is the low-box on the edge of the paint; Clingan's comfort zone is the paint. They will clog the paint and make it next impossible;e for Blazers drivers to penetrate. It's a poor mesh for a twin towers
Click to expand...
Match ups are key in any game.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top