Devil's advocate

[Fez Hammersticks]

Say Greg loses a significant amount of his athletic ability could you live with the fact that he could be a Dale Davis-tier center rather than that "key to a title" prospect?

 

[Minstrel]

Say Greg loses a significant amount of his athletic ability could you live with the fact that he could be a Dale Davis-tier center rather than that "key to a title" prospect?

Sure. I mean, he could never be healthy or play another game, in which case Portland gets even less. All you can do is accept what happens.

 

[STOMP]

Say Greg loses a significant amount of his athletic ability could you live with the fact that he could be a Dale Davis-tier center rather than that "key to a title" prospect?

I'd be belly flopping off the Golden Gate bridge within the hour

STOMP

 

[MARIS61]

I'll just be happy for him if he leads a reasonably pain-free life.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I'd be happy with him being similar a version of a hobbled Bill Walton when he was 6th man for the Celtics.

He does have the ability to be a good passer like Bill was.

 

[BrianFromWA]

it's funny, through all of this I've been wondering if this was the sentiment around Walton in the late-70's/early-80's, or if it wasn't covered like this, or what. He was basically crippled in 86, and still was 6th-man of the year and got a ring

 

[BGrantFan]

I'd be happy with him being similar a version of a hobbled Bill Walton when he was 6th man for the Celtics.

He does have the ability to be a good passer like Bill was.

Walton may have been the best passing big man in the history of basketball.

"Good passer"?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Walton may have been the best passing big man in the history of basketball.

"Good passer"?

Bill was a great passer when he was with the Blazers, good when he was with the Celtics.

Since I was talking about Oden being similar to Walton when he was with the Celts my good passer comparison is valid.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

A surgeon from the Vail clinic that did Greg Oden's microfracture knee surgery estimates he will "be out probably at least a year or so."

B-Edge

 

[RoyToy]

Considering there will be a lockout next year the only real damaging part is he won't play the rest of this year. By the time the next NBA season is ready to go I would assume Greg will be ready to play assuming rehab goes smoothly, which it did last time with his MF surgery.

 

[jlprk]

Przybilla has never been known as a passer. Walton is the greatest passer for a center in history. His real talent was defense, but no one mentions that anymore. Anyway, Joel is not Walton, even Bill's last full season in 1985-86, when Walton was the best center on an NBA champion.

On the greatest Celtic team of all time, could Joel really keep up with a broken down Walton? Compare the hobbling Walton to a healthy Parish, per 36 minutes.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=w1Ivt

And Walton's stats were held down learning his teammates and coach. This was Parish's 6th season on the Celtics, but Walton's 1st.

Despite Walton's per minute stats being better, Parish's PER was a little higher in the regular season, proving that PER isn't really per minute. By the playoffs, Walton had learned the system and his PER easily beat Parish, despite fewer minutes.

As the chart shows, Przybilla is pretty bad at assists per 36 minutes. Sly, I think you meant that Joel will need to focus upon talents requiring less mobility, like passing.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I was listening to John Lund the other day and he brought up an interesting point. Let's say we extend the qualifying offer this coming year and let's say he's even able to play 40 or 50 games (if his prior rehab timelines are any indication of when he might be ready) everybody realizes that he becomes a completely unrestricted free agent at that point right? So what makes people think that he's even going to want to stay in Portland? His entire stint here has been filled with disappointment and setbacks; he's made comments that he hears people "whispering" about him when he's on the street, he implies at times that he thinks Portland is a bit of a confining fishbowl ... I mean if you were in Greg's shoes and you had a chance at a fresh start somewhere else, wouldn't you maybe want a change of scenery?

In the end we could end up paying this guy 9 million dollars* for half a season's work at a likely diminished level after two full years away from basketball and there's decent chance he walks at the end anyway. Who knows, maybe his 9 million dollar expiring contract will be useful as a trade asset by then.





*prorated for the lockout and the luxury tax

 

[e_blazer]

IMO, the least likely event is that Greg passes on other offers he's going to receive next summer, accepts the one-year qualifying offer and plays that one year in order to become a UFA. Even a low-ball offer of $3 million per year guaranteed over 5 years is going to amount to a lot more sure dollars in Greg's pocket than the one-year deal with no guarantee of more money if his knees don't hold up enough to get a contract the following year. I'd say that the risk of making the qualifying offer is pretty low.

 

[Nikolokolus]

IMO, the least likely event is that Greg passes on other offers he's going to receive next summer, accepts the one-year qualifying offer and plays that one year in order to become a UFA. Even a low-ball offer of $3 million per year guaranteed over 5 years is going to amount to a lot more sure dollars in Greg's pocket than the one-year deal with no guarantee of more money if his knees don't hold up enough to get a contract the following year. I'd say that the risk of making the qualifying offer is pretty low.

Well, the Blazers have to at least offer the QO to retain their rights to match, so that will always be on the table if Larry Miller is telling the truth that they intend to go that route. But as for other teams offering him a smallish deal, wouldn't that play right into the Blazers' hands, allowing them to match? As an RFA a team that wants him is going to have to gamble that their offer sheet is too rich for Portland's blood, and if it gets too rich they'll be staring at the fairly unattractive possibility that they could "win" and end up with a grossly overpaid, ininsurable player ... depending on the rules of the next CBA.

I guess I'm just saying I think teams aren't exactly going to be lining up to overpay Greg because of his injury history and possible RFA status, and usually the only way to get restricted free agents is to overpay. I have a feeling other teams want to see if he can even come back this time and then try to negotiate with him when he's completely unrestricted.

 

[e_blazer]

Even if no other team offers Greg a reasonable deal, which I think is unlikely, the Blazers can make a multi-year offer of their own that would exceed the qualifying offer in total money. They almost certainly would do so rather than put themselves in jeopardy of Greg being left with only the qualifying offer as an option. I guess if Greg is determined to get out of here he could take the qualifying offer deal, but he'd be putting himself at risk of never getting another deal if his knees don't hold up.

 

[huevonkiller]

I don't see anything wrong with being upset about Oden's future. One doesn't have to settle for anything, I wouldn't want to be stuck in limbo like the Jazz or Hawks.

If it doesn't get me a championship I'm not content.