Did we really win the Nurkic trade?

[kjironman1]

No Blazer is sacred this year. This place can trash any of them.

 

[wizenheimer]

how about 2018/2019 season when he was having the best season of his career and when he was considered to be the blazers 2nd best player by the majority of the blazers fans and considered by the nba fans to be around top 5 center, behind guys like jokic, embiid, kat, gobert, pretty much those four were undeniably better and then there were a couple of players where it was just a matter of preference, nothing else)

like I said, that 20 game stretch of Nurkic fever in Portland was almost as good as 2018-19

2016-17: pts 15.2....reb 10.4....ast 3.2....blk 1.9....stl 1.3....TS% .545....FTA 4.9....FT% .660....FG% .508
2018-19: pts 15.6....reb 10.4....ast 3.2....blk 1.4....stl 1.0....TS% .570....FTA 5.1....FT% .779....FG% .508

his shooting became a little more efficient, mainly because of his FT%. His winshare/48 and BPM went up quite a bit but most of that is a function of playing for a 54 win team in 2018-19 vs a 41 win team in 2016-17

sure, he was better, but the improvement was incremental and I'd expect a little more from a player aging from 22 to 24. Maybe that's an unreasonable expectation

as far as his stature in 2018-19, I'd add Vucevic to the list ahead of Nurkic. Statistically, Clint Capela was better too

maybe he'll come back after the all-star break better than ever. But he sure was a shell of what he was to start this season; and his fall from what he was in the bubble was pretty drastic

 

[Rastapopoulos]

An alternative (less emo) title for this thread would've been: "nice to see Plumlee playing well - good for him!"

 

[wizenheimer]

An alternative (less emo) title for this thread would've been: "nice to see Plumlee playing well - good for him!"

I have a good friend who grew up in Denver and lived there a few years after college, He's a giant Denver Nuggets (and Broncos) fan

he's convinced that Denver's biggest issue isn't missing Jerami Grant (Porter and Green are filling the role) or Torrey Craig (who only averaged 5 pts & 3 rebs). That Denver is missing Plumlee...a lot. Nobody can fill his role; he gave the Nuggets a lot of quality in 21 minutes a game last year when he averaged, per36, 13 pts, 11 rebs, & 5 asts while playing solid defense. He is one of a few big men in the league who could step into Jokic's role when Jokic rests

 

[julius]

Interesting to note.

Even with the games missed by Nurk, he's scored more points than Plums has, over the same stretch. Same with rebounds.

Plums has more assists, but also has played 80 more games.

 

[wizenheimer]

Interesting to note.

Even with the games missed by Nurk, he's scored more points than Plums has, over the same stretch. Same with rebounds.

Plums has more assists, but also has played 80 more games.

also interesting to note: Nurkic has played in 1 playoff win; Plumlee has played in 20

 

[Mr. Robot]

also interesting to note: Nurkic has played in 1 playoff win; Plumlee has played in 20

damian lillard, some would say superstar, has also won 20 playoff games in his career

im not really sure how this works, is lillard not as good as people think or is plumlee a superstar too

cj mccollum has 15 playoff wins (technically 16, but he only played less than 7 minutes, so i wont count that), 5 less than plumlee, what does that mean...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

also interesting to note: Nurkic has played in 1 playoff win; Plumlee has played in 20

Well, he won't be playing in any more any time soon. I say this as someone who lives in the Pistons catchment area.

 

[wizenheimer]

im not really sure how this works,.

here's how it 'works"....somebody posted a random stat. I replied with another random stat

 

[PDXFonz]

the trade balance is a lot closer than it used to be since Nurkic sure appears to be injury prone

also, Nurkic hasn't seemed to improve a lot during off-seasons. His impact in that "Nurkic Fever" 20 game stretch right after the trade has been as big as any stretch since. You'd expect more progression from a young big. Portland's playoff record when Nurkic has been healthy is only 1-8. But it's unlikely Plumlee would have improved that any considering the opponents and how the Blazers lost those games

still, if the scale is balanced between knowns-at-the-time and hindsight I'd give Portland the edge

a couple of other factors, both laid at the feet of Olshey: 1) Blazers needed to punt Plumlee's RFA status a year down the road because of Olshey's 2016 madness; the trade accomplished that. 2) the trade brought in a first round pick that became about 40% of the trade that allowed Olshey to draft Zach Collins. If that would have resulted in Portland drafting Donovan Mitchell or Bam Adebayo, or just drafting a Jarret Allen or OG Anunoby it would have been a slam dunk win. But we can't have nice things around here...apparently

Dang! that 1-8 is pretty glaring to be honest and I hadn’t realized that... Is that accurate!?!?

 

[wizenheimer]

Dang! that 1-8 is pretty glaring to be honest and I hadn’t realized that... Is that accurate!?!?

technically, it's not accurate...Portland is actually 1-9 in the playoffs when Nurkic plays. They were 1-4 last season against the Lakers and Nurkic was healthy when the Pelicans swept Portland. But Nurkic did play 17 minutes in a game the year before that when he tried to come back from a late season injury, but couldn't perform

I've paid attention to that because inevitably, when a good playoff team traps, doubles, and triples Dame all over the floor in the playoffs, and the Blazers wilt badly because of it, some people will inevitably excuse the failure by saying if Nurkic had been healthy, the result would have been different

but it hasn't made any difference when Nurkic was healthy. Still the same failures. The other side of that is the only time Portland had any real success in the playoff since the Aldridge era is when Kanter was the starting C

I like Nurkic, but his health is not dependable and big men just don't impact games like they used to unless it's some once in a decade unicorn like Embiid or Gobert

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

To revisit this, here is the comparison for Nurk vs Eubanks

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm...urce=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=eubandr01

Eubanks makes the minimum.

Not sure why he was given the contract he got. Nurk is what his numbers have been over his career. It is insanity to think differently.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

To revisit this, here is the comparison for Nurk vs Eubanks

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm...urce=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=eubandr01

Eubanks makes the minimum.

Not sure why he was given the contract he got. Nurk is what his numbers have been over his career. It is insanity to think differently.

Thought this thread was more about Nurk vs Plumlee? with Will Barton?

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

Thought this thread was more about Nurk vs Plumlee? with Will Barton?

Barton was given up for scraps in the horrible Afflalo deal and has nothing to do with this.

Plumlee is now sitting with about double the WS for his career over Nurk so hopefully that argument is put to bed.

 

[Cugel]

Lost the Nurk trade. And to sign him to that deal slashed the achilles of the team. He is un-tradable unless you throw in sharp and/or take back even an even worse contract of John Wall magnitude. I would rather have given them Ant and Nurk for Westbrook and FRPs.

 

[tykendo]

I disagree that we lost the Nurk trade. I think the reason most of us, me included, get so frustrated with Nurk, is that the talent is there to be dominant. We've seen it. Ability to put up stats in 5 key areas. It's the lack of concentration finishing at the hoop, and the lack of availability with the injuries that's most maddening. But the skillset is there, and i believe, if, he can stay healthy (big if right now), he can be a key contributor going forward. Because when Nurkic is dominant, the Blazers are a very hard team to defeat.

 

[Idog1976]

We will find out once he returns and how he performs in helping us to the playoffs.

Why in GOD’S NAME would we want to fo anything but tank from here?!?!?! Shut him down for the season. Heck I’d love to see Dame shut down. Id be ecstatic if we lost every single game from here on out.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yeah Nurk vs. Drew is a joke. Defensive win shares is 16 to 4.

 

[tykendo]

Why in GOD’S NAME would we want to fo anything but tank from here?!?!?! Shut him down for the season. Heck I’d love to see Dame shut down. Id be ecstatic if we lost every single game from here on out.

And it still wouldn't guaranty anything. All that losing last year didn't get the Blazers the rights to land Banchero. Sharpe may, or may not turn into the next big thing. He is a very exciting player who i want to see take the next step next year. He has too. As for this year, the Blazers are in the developing business of the current young assets, and a big part of that is trying to make the playoffs. Instilling winning qualities by not mailing it in by Tanking. Houston has got tanking down to a T. They have the inside track to landing Wemby, along with the Pistons and Spurs. But they are instilling a lot of bad habits by doing this. The best thing for our youngsters is to play along side Dame and see, what devotion to your craft is all about. It's about putting in the work, and bringing the desire to succeed every day. Not mailing it in, in hopes of a great savior . The Blazers may, or may not make the playoffs. But working hard to try, is better than giving up, any day, any way, any time, EVER!

 

[Labinot41]

a guy who is afraid to dunk and takes flip shots instead will never be dominant, period.

 

[illmatic99]

Yeah Nurk vs. Drew is a joke. Defensive win shares is 16 to 4.

Just don't even bother explaining. It's gonna fall on deaf ears.

 

[andalusian]

Yeah Nurk vs. Drew is a joke. Defensive win shares is 16 to 4.

Career? Sure.

This year, it's very close...

Nurk is a better defender, there is no doubt about it. But between his availability, how he is misused and his offensive struggles his production is not worth his salary, where Drew is a great value for the money.

 

[Idog1976]

And it still wouldn't guaranty anything. All that losing last year didn't get the Blazers the rights to land Banchero. Sharpe may, or may not turn into the next big thing. He is a very exciting player who i want to see take the next step next year. He has too. As for this year, the Blazers are in the developing business of the current young assets, and a big part of that is trying to make the playoffs. Instilling winning qualities by not mailing it in by Tanking. Houston has got tanking down to a T. They have the inside track to landing Wemby, along with the Pistons and Spurs. But they are instilling a lot of bad habits by doing this. The best thing for our youngsters is to play along side Dame and see, what devotion to your craft is all about. It's about putting in the work, and bringing the desire to succeed every day. Not mailing it in, in hopes of a great savior . The Blazers may, or may not make the playoffs. But working hard to try, is better than giving up, any day, any way, any time, EVER!

Sure, it doesn't guarantee anything. Do you believe there is a more than 0.0000000000000000000000000000001% chance we win a ring this year? If not, it only makes sense to accumulate assets whether or not we do the drafting is irrelevant, increasing our pick chances/rank is simply the ONLY move that makes sense. I'm not talking about Wemby, this is a stacked draft especially at **drum roll** the wing position. Therefore, NOT tanking is downright idiotic at this point. I disagree wholeheartedly with the tanking is a bad idea logic. Tell that to the SAS when they mega tanked for Duncan, Celtics trading their big-3 when the writing was on the wall, Sixers now in the top 4 in the East via tanking, Phoenix parlaying Bridges (tanky tank!) into KD along with what? draft picks. If tanking was a bad idea why have so many teams done it and had it yield success? It's beyond foolish to risk injuries and worsen our asset base by attempting to get smoked by Denver/Memphis or whoever comes out on top in the first round for what? For jack, that's what. We aren't winning the first round if we even get there, that ship sailed months ago when our record got so bad we locked in non-HCA. Tanking last year was absolutely the right move, and it's even more so this year with the loaded draft.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

if, he can stay healthy (big if right now), he can be a key contributor going forward

Every year we say this about Nurk. Every single year. He always gets hurt.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Yeah Nurk vs. Drew is a joke. Defensive win shares is 16 to 4.

No question there. At least Drew stays healthy but you cannot compare the talent.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

Yeah Nurk vs. Drew is a joke. Defensive win shares is 16 to 4.

That is with Nurk playing twice as many games and at a salary that takes up over 10% of the cap. Drew is at the minimum.

 

[riverman]

Nurk is low mileage so far....he's been parked for half his Blazer career....we didn't lose the Nurk trade in my view...Plumlee didn't light up Charlotte by any stretch although I like the guy. I'm not big on backtracking comparisons when random injuries happen to players regardless of talent. Nurk can play better than he was before he got hurt this season. When he's on he's a double double machine and he's an anchor in the paint. Unless you get Embiid or Jokic, you're going to find him hard to replace given the alternatives. Nurk's contract is not bad given what the market will dictate with the new TV money. We'll see how he looks with the new guys but he looked good with Winslow next to him early on.
'

 

[wizenheimer]

Nurkic is 28 years old in his 9th NBA season. He really has only established a few things over his career: he has major trouble staying healthy; for a C he's bad at offense around the rim; his mental approach is flawed; and his only consistency is wild inconsistency

"Bosnian beast mode" was something to see but it sure seems that creature is a shell of itself because of accumulated injuries and leg fractures. Nurkic appears to be much more floor-bound now than he used to be. He's not a rim protector anymore. Still, with his size, being more floor-bound wouldn't be much of an issue if Nurk possessed good BBIQ, but that quality is rarely seen thru the inconsistency and emotional roller-coaster that Nurk seems trapped on

Nurkic does make a big difference for Portland's defense but much of that, IMO, is due to a major deficit of defensive length and size on the rest of the roster.

 

[riverman]

That is with Nurk playing twice as many games and at a salary that takes up over 10% of the cap. Drew is at the minimum.

Drew is not a starter....he's barely holding onto a roster spot in the league. I don't think you can compare the two given the circumstances...a healthy engaged Nurk is way better than Drew and if they want to put a contender around Dame they have to pay some tax.....Golden State is paying just under half a billion in luxury tax to "maybe" contend this season. We need another 7 ft back up behind Nurk besides Drew...Drew is a tweener who's blocked shots or tip outs almost always go to the other team.. Nurk can get 20 rebounds...Drew never will. Nurk played his best ball next to Aminu and Winslow.....put a defender next to him and he looks alot better..before he got sidelined Nurk was playing hurt according to Casey so his last small stretch wasn't a good sample size of who he is as a player. I'm hoping he's beasting come playoff time.

 

[wizenheimer]

That is with Nurk playing twice as many games and at a salary that takes up over 10% of the cap. Drew is at the minimum.

winshares is a cumulative stat; more minutes = more winshares. Nurkic has played 3 times the minutes of Eubanks so a 4-1 winshare advantage has to be gauged against a 3-1 minutes advantage

so, if you're sticking with a winshare gauge:

minutes: Nurkic 3-1 over Eubanks
Def. Winshares: Nurkic 4.1-1 over Eubanks
Off. Winshares: Nurkic 1.47-1 over Eubanks
Winshares: Nurkic 2.46-1 over Nurkic
Winshares/48: Eubanks .139 over Nurkic .114

the only category Nurk eclipses his minutes advantage is in defensive winshares. Eubanks wins the other categories

and of course there's what you are pointing at:

Nurkic is paid 8.5 times as much as Eubanks