Draft 2009

[B-Roy]

Of course - but that will be a silly move since they think they can contend with Caron+Jamison+Arenas - so it does not apply with that premise.

Caron, Jamison, Arenas has not worked. If they TRULY want to contend, they will keep all three, along with the draft pick, which would likely be top 3, and a good contributor.

First - they have to find someone that can absorb his big contract for expiring, second - this just sets them back. What they would want to do is build on the Sessions+CV+Bogut - they are all young and have potential - but they are stuck with R-Jeff/Redd. Again - if they just want to blow the whole thing over - maybe - but if they are not injured - they can actually go somewhere in the eastern conference as Sessions/CV/Bogut gain experience - so the cheapest and easiest way to do it - would be to get rid of the pick/small bad contract.

Well, you are assuming they want to rebuild. I counted out Milwaukee once Redd went down, but now they are winning even more games and are in the thick of the playoff race. If they do indeed make the playoffs, I can see them not moving anyone at all, and signing Sessions to the MLE, and CV for cheap as well since they aren't many teams in the league that can offer big money. (And none that would want CV anyways) I do think they will try their hardest to move Redd or Jefferson, and if nothing pans out, I think the pick will be used in this situation to make someone take Redd/RJ.

2006 - Boston sending the #7 pick for Bassy and 2 questionable big men were traded for money (The Blazers paid an extra year of salary on Raef).

2004 - PHX sending the #6 pick to Chicago.

Bassy still had a fair amount of potential at that point. He was still a lottery pick, and was incoming talent to offset some of the loss of losing a top pick. I would imagine that we would have to do something similar, like adding Batum/Bayless/Rudy.

PHX is just dumb. They didn't even get good cash relief.

First - I will cite economic times because when your owner loses tons of money in the market it is a big incentive - hiding your head in the sand and pretending it did not happen does not change the fact that it did - all it does is fills your ears with sand...

Yes, but cheap young talent is always the last to go. ALWAYS.

As for angry fans - the fans will be there if the team wins. If they believe that a healthy team with their big 3 + the center that was wounded this year is contending (and it seems that they do given the money they gave them and the public statements they made) - and it seems reasonable to expect that they do not think they will have a problem selling tickets.

The team won't win if you giving up their best assets.

 

[andalusian]

Caron, Jamison, Arenas has not worked. If they TRULY want to contend, they will keep all three, along with the draft pick, which would likely be top 3, and a good contributor.

The only time these 3 were healthy - they were actually very good. It is just that they are not very often all healthy at the same time.

Again - I am just going by what they have done with their money and public statements. I am guessing that if they wanted to save money and move Caron - they had a great chance with the Raef contract/insurance - and did not - so it tells you they are not moving him. Good luck moving Arenas - as close to impossible as there is now - and then there is the question - do they move Jamison somehow, pay the luxury tax (because no-one under the cap will take him - so they have to take similar salary for at least one year) or are they really hurting for money. The indication seems to be that they are hurting for money. The fact that they did not do the Butler for Raef tells you they still think they can go on with that group...

 

[MAS RipCity]

I am on the DeJuan Blair bandwagon as well..trade up with our multiple 2nds and current 1st to get it done!

 

[B-Roy]

The only time these 3 were healthy - they were actually very good. It is just that they are not very often all healthy at the same time.

They were 45-37 and got sweeped in the second round. Hardly "contender" status.

Again - I am just going by what they have done with their money and public statements. I am guessing that if they wanted to save money and move Caron - they had a great chance with the Raef contract/insurance - and did not - so it tells you they are not moving him. Good luck moving Arenas - as close to impossible as there is now - and then there is the question - do they move Jamison somehow, pay the luxury tax (because no-one under the cap will take him - so they have to take similar salary for at least one year) or are they really hurting for money. The indication seems to be that they are hurting for money. The fact that they did not do the Butler for Raef tells you they still think they can go on with that group...

And again, if they want to save money (which the reports are saying they DON'T, they want to keep the core intact, and keep the pick as well, and hope to compete next year), they will move Caron. I would imagine that KP inquired about Butler and the Wiz demanded 2-3 of our young prospects along with Raef and KP said no. So, yeah, moving any of the big 3 makes them non-competitors, but if they want to save money, Butler can easily be moved.

I don't get where this "hurting for money" thing is coming from. Because they didn't accept Raef alone for Caron?

 

[andalusian]

They were 45-37 and got sweeped in the second round. Hardly "contender" status.

Actually - this is not the year I am talking about - the next year or one after they were the 1st or 2nd in the east until around all-star weekend and then Gilbert went down and the rest of the year was a crap. Butler was not there in the 45-37 year.

And again, if they want to save money (which the reports are saying they DON'T, they want to keep the core intact, and keep the pick as well, and hope to compete next year), they will move Caron. I would imagine that KP inquired about Butler and the Wiz demanded 2-3 of our young prospects along with Raef and KP said no. So, yeah, moving any of the big 3 makes them non-competitors, but if they want to save money, Butler can easily be moved.

I don't get where this "hurting for money" thing is coming from. Because they didn't accept Raef alone for Caron?

They will hurt for money if they go over the lux-tax - and that will happen if they are getting a high-price rookie.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090223

The interesting bits from this:

So teams with projected payrolls in the mid-70s -- like Phoenix, New Orleans, Washington and, if they want to keep their young guys, Milwaukee -- were motivated sellers at the trade deadline. This was their last chance to deal for expiring contracts that would put them under the tax line.

The most interesting case by far is Washington. It appears that its best route to getting under the tax would be to trade its first-round pick -- which could be first or second overall -- to a contender along with a handful of bad contracts, and get back a productive player on a good contract.

So something like a pick swap + TE for a small contract and another deal where they get rid of Songalia for example for a Frye + ? would help them immensely.

Milwaukee is in an even tighter spot. The Bucks have two high-quality restricted free agents -- Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions -- that they won't be able to afford unless they can either pay somebody to take Luke Ridnour off their hands or move Richard Jefferson; they almost certainly would need to give up their first-round pick in the former scenario, and might in the latter.

Again - a likely target - and if it does not work - we can always go hard after Sessions - so KP can offer them a deal that includes the pick + Alexander for a TE or he will do his best to make Session bolt or come to them as expensive as possible...

 

[BalancedMan]

Guess I should have made it a poll. Well depending on the talent in the draft and the economy, we may be able to buy ourselves into the lottery at a cheap price. I was just thinking that the backup PF position is something to go after...seems like a lot of people like Blair for that, but we'd certainly have to move up into the mid-lottery to get him, and he is short (though strong) for a PF in the NBA.

To be honest though I don't know how we'll move up. Trading a pick in the 20's plus second rounders doesn't let you move up that much, even if it happened incrementally (move from pick 20 to 16 to 12 to 9...). I don't think it'll happen.

Again, that LAC 2nd rounder will be quite valuable near the beginning of the second round.

 

[Nate Dogg]

I'm just getting sick of college basketball players entering the NBA draft after one season. Its obvious that they get mid draft pickings or get waived within their second year into the League. We need players like Brandon Roy, who stick through college for 4 years and polish up their skills before the NBA. LA at least did two years. Still our quality is more limited when theres less basketball experience when they reach pro.

 

[rocketeer]

I'm just getting sick of college basketball players entering the NBA draft after one season. Its obvious that they get mid draft pickings or get waived within their second year into the League. We need players like Brandon Roy, who stick through college for 4 years and polish up their skills before the NBA. LA at least did two years. Still our quality is more limited when theres less basketball experience when they reach pro.

yep. durant, rose, beasley, oden, mayo, eric gordon, bayless, kevin love, thadeous young, hawes, daequan cook, mike conley. it's just horrible that these kinds of players are allowed to leave college after one year. and it's obvious that none will succeed in the nba and most will be out of the league by their 2nd year.

 

[JE]

I seriously thought this was a MIXUM thread upon opening.

 

[BalancedMan]

I seriously thought this was a MIXUM thread upon opening.

?

I don't think the posts have been indicative of that. Unless you just mean based on the thread title.

 

[JE]

?

I don't think the posts have been indicative of that. Unless you just mean based on the thread title.

Yeah, the title.

 

[Tortimer]

ESPN has Blair going at 19. Currently the Blazers would pick 24 and there is a chance we might even be a little higher maybe 21-24. So, if Blair went somewhere around 19 we wouldn't have any problem trading up to get him IMO. From the small write up about Blair he sounds just what we need. They compare him to Millsap and if he is anything like Millsap I say we draft him. I'm going to watch him play to see what I think of Blair's game.

Here is link: http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

 

[B-Roy]

Actually - this is not the year I am talking about - the next year or one after they were the 1st or 2nd in the east until around all-star weekend and then Gilbert went down and the rest of the year was a crap. Butler was not there in the 45-37 year.

IIRC, they played together in the playoffs in 06-07, and briefly in 07-08. They weren't that great.

They will hurt for money if they go over the lux-tax - and that will happen if they are getting a high-price rookie.

Also won't happen if they trade Caron. If you're going to contend, you have to go all out. If not, DON'T TRY TO CONTEND.

So something like a pick swap + TE for a small contract and another deal where they get rid of Songalia for example for a Frye + ? would help them immensely.

Again, if a team wants to contend, they have to go all out. ESPN is just speculating. Rarely have they ever been right.

Again - a likely target - and if it does not work - we can always go hard after Sessions - so KP can offer them a deal that includes the pick + Alexander for a TE or he will do his best to make Session bolt or come to them as expensive as possible...

Milwaukee can match any offer for Sessions, so Milwaukee will be able to keep him no matter what. It's true that you could offer a HUGE contract, but would KP take the risk? If Milwaukee doesn't call our bluff, we'd end up paying a ridiculous amount for Sessions.

Also, is it legal to do this?

IDK, anyways, if they want to cut costs, they'll package the pick/Alexander to entice a team to take Redd/Jefferson. They don't have to go through our ridiculous bullshit.

 

[Minstrel]

Milwaukee can match any offer for Sessions, so Milwaukee will be able to keep him no matter what.

As has been pointed out recently, they can't match any offer. While another team can only offer the MLE for the first two seasons, that team can offer a steep raise in year 3. That would push the average value of the contract above the MLE. Milwaukee has to match the average value, not the first year's salary, in order to retain him. Being over the cap and only holding his Early Bird rights, they can match only up to the MLE. Ergo, they couldn't match.

 

[rocketeer]

As has been pointed out recently, they can't match any offer. While another team can only offer the MLE for the first two seasons, that team can offer a steep raise in year 3. That would push the average value of the contract above the MLE. Milwaukee has to match the average value, not the first year's salary, in order to retain him. Being over the cap and only holding his Early Bird rights, they can match only up to the MLE. Ergo, they couldn't match.

are you sure that is true? from the explanation i read about it, i came away feeling like they were able to match every offer(as the rule makes all offer matchable) just that it counts against their cap differently than the contract would count against the team offering it.

 

[Da_O]

ESPN has Blair going at 19. Currently the Blazers would pick 24 and there is a chance we might even be a little higher maybe 21-24. So, if Blair went somewhere around 19 we wouldn't have any problem trading up to get him IMO. From the small write up about Blair he sounds just what we need. They compare him to Millsap and if he is anything like Millsap I say we draft him. I'm going to watch him play to see what I think of Blair's game.

Here is link: http://hoopshype.com/draft.htm

Blair=Barkley

 

[SodaPopinski]

Personally, I hope we just tank the season and shoot for the best lottery pick we can get at this point!

Draft talk when we are one game out of the #3 seed in the Western Conference FTW!!!



















Now that I've gotten the sarcasm out of the way, I've gotta say I dream about the days when Blazer fans don't so readily accept failure that they prefer to talk draft over playoffs.

I'm so over the "adding unproven talent." You show me the last 20 NBA champs and I'll show you a group of fans who didn't blow their load over the latest mock draft back in February. Lame.

-Pop

 

[BalancedMan]

Personally, I hope we just tank the season and shoot for the best lottery pick we can get at this point!

Draft talk when we are one game out of the #3 seed in the Western Conference FTW!!!


Now that I've gotten the sarcasm out of the way, I've gotta say I dream about the days when Blazer fans don't so readily accept failure that they prefer to talk draft over playoffs.

I'm so over the "adding unproven talent." You show me the last 20 NBA champs and I'll show you a group of fans who didn't blow their load over the latest mock draft back in February. Lame.

-Pop

You clearly must not read my posts then. I don't suggest that the Blazers are a failure. Quite the contrary, I think that depending on the matchup and health issues, the Blazers could go deep in the playoffs, even win it all if the cards all fall right.

But at the same time, I like the draft a lot. It's fun and exciting adding new talent, especially since KP tends to make about half a dozen trades. It's sort of like recruiting or auditioning a new person to be part of your group. Also, given the fallout that many people were disappointed after the trade deadline, I thought it would be okay to look ahead to the next time a personnel movement can happen.

 

[BalancedMan]

As has been pointed out recently, they can't match any offer. While another team can only offer the MLE for the first two seasons, that team can offer a steep raise in year 3. That would push the average value of the contract above the MLE. Milwaukee has to match the average value, not the first year's salary, in order to retain him. Being over the cap and only holding his Early Bird rights, they can match only up to the MLE. Ergo, they couldn't match.

Were did you see that? I must have missed that as well. That makes Atlanta and PDX players in the Sessions sweepstakes then. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Atlanta with Johnson, Smith and co. But I hope not.


FWIW Sessions in Feb so far: 21.5 pts, 7.9 assts, 4.6 rebs, 1.9 stls, 49% FG%, over 10 FT attempts a game. Those are pretty darn good numbers...all-star level honestly, although he is playing on a bad team.

 

[andalusian]

As has been pointed out recently, they can't match any offer. While another team can only offer the MLE for the first two seasons, that team can offer a steep raise in year 3. That would push the average value of the contract above the MLE. Milwaukee has to match the average value, not the first year's salary, in order to retain him. Being over the cap and only holding his Early Bird rights, they can match only up to the MLE. Ergo, they couldn't match.

I have a question - isn't he a UFA and not a RFA? This means he can take whatever offer he wants, no?

 

[AgentDrazenPetrovic]

Want Psycho-T on this team. backup PF baby!

 

[bluefrog]

Another thought is that people have been saying we need a solid backup PF...a banger who is ready to do the work. With that in mind, and where we'll be drafting, what do you think about drafting Tyler "Psycho T" Hansbrough from UNC.

Psycho T would be a great addition to this team.

 

[BalancedMan]

I have a question - isn't he a UFA and not a RFA? This means he can take whatever offer he wants, no?

No, he is an RFA with early-bird rights.

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q19

 

[Minstrel]

are you sure that is true? from the explanation i read about it, i came away feeling like they were able to match every offer(as the rule makes all offer matchable) just that it counts against their cap differently than the contract would count against the team offering it.

From Larry Coon's FAQ:

For the team making this offer, this contract would count for $11.0 million (i.e., the average salary in the contract) of team salary in each of the five seasons if they sign the player. If the player's prior team matches the offer and keeps the player, then the actual salary in each season counts as team salary. The player's original team is allowed to use any available exception (e.g., the Mid-Level or the Early-Bird) to match the offer.

It's actually a bit uncertain, I guess. I read it to mean that the offer is counted as the average salary, which the player's prior team would need to match. IF that prior team matches, then the cap number each year is that year's actual salary.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'm surprised you guys haven't seen KPs master plan. Every year he trades a 2nd rounder for 2 second rounders. The basic plan is to own the entire 2nd round in 2015 - he's well on his way!!

 

[LittleAlex]

I'm amazed that people are in agreement with me on this. I thought I'd get torched for proposing we package some of our picks and bring back a proven NBA player.

-Pop

No, Portland has built just about as much as is needed via the draft. That plus the over-all lack of talent in the draft pool makes trading all of the picks for a proven player a great idea.

For the record, I kind of wanted Portland to do this last draft. I just figure Portland is young enough already.

 

[LittleAlex]

Psycho T would be a great addition to this team.

I think he would be a great pick in the late first, early 2nd round if we don't trade those picks away.

 

[LameR]

Want Psycho-T on this team. backup PF baby!

That's who I wanted a while back as well, but didn't think it was realistic given his level of play. I think his stock has dropped a bit, and he seems a lot more likely to be around when we pick, or at least closer to it.

 

[BalancedMan]

From Larry Coon's FAQ:

For the team making this offer, this contract would count for $11.0 million (i.e., the average salary in the contract) of team salary in each of the five seasons if they sign the player. If the player's prior team matches the offer and keeps the player, then the actual salary in each season counts as team salary. The player's original team is allowed to use any available exception (e.g., the Mid-Level or the Early-Bird) to match the offer.

It's actually a bit uncertain, I guess. I read it to mean that the offer is counted as the average salary, which the player's prior team would need to match. IF that prior team matches, then the cap number each year is that year's actual salary.

Here's how I think it works.

Let's say we end up $8 million under the cap. We can offer a 4-year $32 million deal (because the average is $8) even though it will get paid out at something like: 1st year=MLE, 2nd year = MLE + small increase, 3rd + 4th year= whatever is left on the contract.

So for us, it would use up all $8 million in cap space that is available. However, for the Bucks, so that they aren't powerless to match, can sign him and his actually yearly salary (not the average salary) will count against the cap. So if they are above the cap, they can still use their MLE to sign him and retain him for the first year. I've read something about using the Early Bird Exception, but I don't know if that is an allowance they can spend or rather just the rights they hold on Sessions.

So in essence, he is an RFA. There is no way to get him (or CV3, who has full bird-rights) out of Milwaukee unless the Bucks simply decide not to match. We're restricted in what we can offer him, and his team can match it regardless...with the very least using their MLE space.

So yeah, I think the Sessions idea was a nice dream. I doubt it'll happen now...the kid is blowing up yet again. I hold out hope, but I think it's very unlikely, as he is essentially a RFA. Damn you Gilbert Arenas for coming along and causing the loophole to be closed!


So to summarize. Let's say we offer him that $8-million 4-year contract. Assume an MLE of $5. His contract salary would be structured:

Year 1: $5 Million --------> Value Bucks have to match (with MLE if they are over the cap) to re-sign
Year 2: $5.4 Million (8% Raise)
Year 3: $10.4 Million (Jump)
Year 4: $11.15 Million (6.9% Raise)

Total = $32 Million / 4 Years = $8 Million Average Salary --------> Amount it counts against Blazers (or ATL) cap to sign.

 

[PapaG]

I'm surprised you guys haven't seen KPs master plan. Every year he trades a 2nd rounder for 2 second rounders. The basic plan is to own the entire 2nd round in 2015 - he's well on his way!!

Ha! Repped.