Draft Opportunities?

[glazeduck]

Now that the draft order is set, I'm curious to see where people perceive there to be some opportunities for the Blazers to achieve their goal of "being aggressive" in this draft? Prospects Slipping? Trading Partners? Anything goes.

My list...

-Phoenix @ 13: Historically cheap owner that LOVES to sell picks. Suns are in a predicament, not good enough to compete, not bad enough to get a good lotto pick. Can we buy this pick? Might Nash be available if Sarver decides to blow it up?

-Detroit not jumping up, picking 8th: I've mentioned it here before, but with all the turmoil in Detroit (Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon & others LITERALLY caused a mutiny), they may be desperate to unload their unhappy players (solid veterans btw), and, for an un-guaranteed expiring contract (Miller), perhaps we could convince them that the price of doing business is swapping 1sts this year and chipping in our 1st next year?

-SFs, Batum's 'potential' & having Crash man the 3: Traditionally, the small forward position is the most abundantly talented spot in the league, and therefore the easiest to fill with talent. This draft is no different. If we can get a solid piece - a young PG or C - for Batum, it appears we'd be able to replace him (Nic) with a guy like Chris Singleton or Tobias Harris at our pick or with a small trade-up.

-Next year's draft being a non-necessity for us: While every message board fan (present company being the definition of this) loves the draft, the reality for this team is that our window is now, and - as we saw this year - ineffective rookies don't help that situation. We need guys, veterans or impact rookies, that can make a difference now. Given the perceived weakness of this draft juxtaposed with the insane depth of next years, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see us try to leverage our pick next year for one this year if it'll get a guy we want.

 

[illmatic99]

I wouldn't be so quick in giving up our pick for next year. The 2012 draft should be one of the strongest and deepest drafts in quite a while. Sullinger, Barnes, Perry Jones, and Terrance Jones all could have gone lottery this year, but chose to go back. Add this to the freshman class guys like Austin Rivers and McAdoo, and you've got quite a collection of guys with all star potential.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Now that the draft order is set, I'm curious to see where people perceive there to be some opportunities for the Blazers to achieve their goal of "being aggressive" in this draft? Prospects Slipping? Trading Partners? Anything goes.

My list...

-Phoenix @ 13: Historically cheap owner that LOVES to sell picks. Suns are in a predicament, not good enough to compete, not bad enough to get a good lotto pick. Can we buy this pick? Might Nash be available if Sarver decides to blow it up?

-Detroit not jumping up, picking 8th: I've mentioned it here before, but with all the turmoil in Detroit (Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon & others LITERALLY caused a mutiny), they may be desperate to unload their unhappy players (solid veterans btw), and, for an un-guaranteed expiring contract (Miller), perhaps we could convince them that the price of doing business is swapping 1sts this year and chipping in our 1st next year?

-SFs, Batum's 'potential' & having Crash man the 3: Traditionally, the small forward position is the most abundantly talented spot in the league, and therefore the easiest to fill with talent. This draft is no different. If we can get a solid piece - a young PG or C - for Batum, it appears we'd be able to replace him (Nic) with a guy like Chris Singleton or Tobias Harris at our pick or with a small trade-up.

-Next year's draft being a non-necessity for us: While every message board fan (present company being the definition of this) loves the draft, the reality for this team is that our window is now, and - as we saw this year - ineffective rookies don't help that situation. We need guys, veterans or impact rookies, that can make a difference now. Given the perceived weakness of this draft juxtaposed with the insane depth of next years, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see us try to leverage our pick next year for one this year if it'll get a guy we want.

Our window was 2 years ago. We are in a retooling (rebuilding for those that aren't rose color blind) phase. We have Aldridge and Crash as good NBA players. Miller is on his way out, Camby is on his way out, Oden has proved he can't stay healthy, Roy is barely a shadow of his former allstar self, Batum is a nice role player, Matthews is solid, but inconsistent, Rudy will likely be headed to Spain or elsewhere. Babbitt, Williams, A. Johnson, Mills, C. Johnson, Baron all suck.

Portland must get something in the next drafts. The last few have netted us virtually nothing.

 

[Mediocre Man]

And I think numbers 2 and 4 are available, and anything after 6 should be easy to get in this shitty draft









2
4

 

[Further]

The Blazers might be able to nab a C who is already in the league, but I see no way for the Blazers to get the level of PG they need unless it's through the draft. The Blazers should trade Batum if that is able to get high enough to nab Knight. PA needs to buy every pick offered for 3mil, and then try and turn those picks into some more C's and PG's.

This is a crappy draft, which means that trading up should be much easier than normal. The Blazers need to replace the talent that injuries have taken from them, and the draft is the best way to succeed at this.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm kind of rooting for two things.

1. I want to see the Blazers aggressively try to buy a mid first round draft pick (throw in Batum, Rudy, Williams, Miller or whomever if that helps?)
2. Take that newly minted pick and combine it with our 21st pick and trade it for a top ten protected pick in the 2012 draft with one of the middle tier teams that will probably be picking somewhere around 16-11

If Cho really is cut from the Sam Presti Mold then this seems exactly like the type of thing he would do -- trading picks in a mediocre or crappy draft for an opportunity to have a better pick in what is supposed to be a much stronger class the following year. The fact that we traded away our 2012 first round pick to Charlotte (lotto protected I believe) also makes me hope that the team kind of stinks in 2011-2012 so we end up back in the lottery and can have two cracks at better prospects.

I know most everyone around here is going to flat out hate that approach, but if the Blazers are serious about coming out on the other side of the lockout with a chance to be competitive I think this is as realistic of an approach you could hope for with a team that is capped out and doesn't appear to have much left in the way of assets to get better in the short term.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

nik, just so i get this right, you are advocating tanking away next season?

 

[RR7]

we traded away our 2013 pick, not 2012.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

oh ok, dont tank an entire season then lol

 

[Nikolokolus]

nik, just so i get this right, you are advocating tanking away next season?

Look at it this way, the season is going to be a mess because it's likely to be severely shortened (from the sounds of the preliminary talks between the players and the owners it looks like there will be a lot of missed games) Miller's contract is completely done in 2012 (and he'll probably retire anyway) and there's no apparent successor in sight and few assets to go and get one, Oden could walk as an UFA in 2012, Camby will be retired when his contract runs out in 2012 ...

So yeah, "tank" 40 games in what is going to be a short crappy season for 2 picks in a good draft and have a shot at getting real difference makers or tank in 2012-2013 because you won't have a choice and who knows what that draft class is going to look like and have even fewer assets to work with.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Since the Blazers already traded their 2013 pick, under league rules they *can't* trade the 2012 pick.

Even if they could trade the 2012 pick for a pick this season, why would they? By all accounts, the 2012 draft will be much stronger than 2011. So it would make more sense to trade the 2011 pick for a pick in 2012. Heck, buy up some extra picks this season, and package them for one decent pick next season, if that's what it takes.

Next season, what there is of one, will just be an "*" in the record book. If the team is going to tank, now is the time to do it. The team is a mess, and if Stern is determined to create a fiasco, the Blazers might as well take advantage of it.

Edit: I see Nik already beat me to it on the last point.

 

[Nikolokolus]

we traded away our 2013 pick, not 2012.

All the more reason to stink in 2012

 

[Further]

Interesting concept Nik. One more thing that would bolster your strategy is that the new CBA will likely include a way to cut a single large contract (ROY). So, if we trade away middling talent and current picks for future talent, then the Blazers could be in great shape after next season with Aldridge and Crash being the only large contracts left, allowing tons of fresh meat from the draft, and cap space to hit the FA market.

 

[Draco]

Interesting concept Nik. One more thing that would bolster your strategy is that the new CBA will likely include a way to cut a single large contract (ROY). So, if we trade away middling talent and current picks for future talent, then the Blazers could be in great shape after next season with Aldridge and Crash being the only large contracts left, allowing tons of fresh meat from the draft, and cap space to hit the FA market.

Yes, great points. Also, Wesleys contract will be on the books though its only about 7mil. Crash can opt out of the final year of his deal and potentially be getting a small raise or be on another team. So we could possibly have only LMA, Wes, and Batum as a RFA next off-season. That is why I believe hard nose negotiations with Oden are critical.

 

[Further]

Yes, great points. Also, Wesleys contract will be on the books though its only about 7mil. Crash can opt out of the final year of his deal and potentially be getting a small raise or be on another team. So we could possibly have only LMA, Wes, and Batum as a RFA next off-season. That is why I believe hard nose negotiations with Oden are critical.

I was actually thinking that Wes and/or Batum would likely be one of the players traded to bulk up on future picks and help tank the coming season.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Irving is not possible.

I'd look next to MN and the #2 pick to select Enes Kanter or Brandon Knight.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm going to add one more note to my strategy above. A lot of people around here seem pretty convinced that we really need Oden here for the long-term. If he takes his QO this off-season with the intent of playing out his contract and becoming a unrestricted, the Blazers are going to need to demontrate to him that they have a plan for keeping/making the team competitive. If they can come away from the 2012 draft with a couple of highly regarded prospects (let's say a point guard and a big man prospect for the sake of argument) they accomplish two things. 1st they show that they are serious about surrounding Greg, LMA (and whomever else is still around) with guys who can play which could improve their odds of retaining him and 2nd if Greg does leave to play somewhere elese, they partially indemnify themselves against his departure by acquiring a big man to hopefully pair up with LMA.

Potentially going into the 2012-2013 season with an expiring Gerald Wallace, no Andre Miller, no Greg, no Camby and no pick in 2013 creates another uncomfortable situation for the 2013-2014 season. It means that the countdown is on to surround LaMarcus with enough talent to convince him to stay when his contract expires in 2015 -- basically we want to "suck" earlier rather than later if we're talking about a long term strategy for roster management.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

well, i guess im just gonna keep on rooting for my fav team to you know WIN lol, and it doesnt matter if i have to do that all by myself, surrounded by a bunch of crazy drum beaters waiting to strap me into a bee mask and put me into a giant burning mans head to be roasted alive

 

[RR7]

Yeah, we can suck earlier or.....just not suck at all?

I think, if nothing else, seeing Dallas on a role in the playoffs so far has me convinced that where we currently are, it is stupid to tank again. They could have attempted that many times, and tried ot quickly build back up around Dirk. Instead, they just kept on adding talent, adding talent, adding talent. Trying to find ways to turn, say, a C- player into a C+. Then C+ to B. Then B to B+. I think that's our strategy. Find a way to move a C-(Joel) for a B/B+(Wallace). Now, move a B-(Batum) for a B+/A-, etc. Or, not necessarily Batum, but you get the drift. Consistently increasing the talent level, staying competitive, and finding that right combination. Around LMA. Tanking for a season, and then, with two young players, most likely tanking for a second season, not having a pick that season, and then an expiring LMA who will now be annoyed you wasted two of his prime years on that strategy seems like an incredibly stupid way to run a franchise, IMO.

 

[Blaze01]

I think you go after MIN @ #2 and go for Brandon Knight....

UTA will take Knight @ #3 if he is there, so I think if POR wants a PG (and they should) then this is the year to go for broke and make a deal.....

The question I have for everyone is: If Batum were in this draft, knowing what you know\have seen about him right now...would he be a top 5 pick? 23 years old, improving each year, highly skilled player, good defender, good size\length, will be a RFA (which could be a negative)....I have a tough time puting 5 players from this draft ahead of him...Irving, Knight, maybe Williams? who else? Kanter? Who hasn't really even proved himself? After that I mean I think it is a real reach...Heck, I think Kanter is a reach...

A team like MIN who has an abundance of PG, probably Rubio coming over, can Cho entice Kahn with enough on a deal cnetered around Batum? Rudy? #21? Claver? E.Williams? or Miller or Camby, 2 vets for a young team who happen to have nice expiring deals next year? I mean, I would think anyone outside of Aldridge, Oden & Wallace could be on the table....

I think if you are going to take a risk, then now seems like as good a time as any to go and get that (hopefully) elite level PG in a few years....Brandon Knight could be that player in a few years...and in a league dominated by elite PG's, I think POR has to make a move to acquire a good young PG...and in the draft you give yourself a chance to get an elite PG...trading for one of those is much harder....

 

[RR7]

Minnesota has no bad contracts, and Wes Johnson and Michael Beasley at the 3. Why they would move #2 for batum, when they have two guys at his position is beyond me. Especially when they'd likely get better offers from other teams. Rudy? 21? That doesn't help matters.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

minny has

crap/crap
crap/crap
crap/crap
love/crap
crap/crap

unless im missing something....they need to keep that pick and try and get a player who isnt crap

 

[illmatic99]

Minnesota has no bad contracts, and Wes Johnson and Michael Beasley at the 3. Why they would move #2 for batum, when they have two guys at his position is beyond me. Especially when they'd likely get better offers from other teams. Rudy? 21? That doesn't help matters.

And Marty.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

i would like to molest golden state somehow, and receive monta and their #11

 

[Nikolokolus]

Yeah, we can suck earlier or.....just not suck at all?

I think, if nothing else, seeing Dallas on a role in the playoffs so far has me convinced that where we currently are, it is stupid to tank again. They could have attempted that many times, and tried ot quickly build back up around Dirk. Instead, they just kept on adding talent, adding talent, adding talent. Trying to find ways to turn, say, a C- player into a C+. Then C+ to B. Then B to B+. I think that's our strategy. Find a way to move a C-(Joel) for a B/B+(Wallace). Now, move a B-(Batum) for a B+/A-, etc. Or, not necessarily Batum, but you get the drift. Consistently increasing the talent level, staying competitive, and finding that right combination. Around LMA. Tanking for a season, and then, with two young players, most likely tanking for a second season, not having a pick that season, and then an expiring LMA who will now be annoyed you wasted two of his prime years on that strategy seems like an incredibly stupid way to run a franchise, IMO.

I see two major differences. 1. Dallas is a destination for free agents and players wishing to be traded. 2. The Mavs have a true superstar to build around. While I think LMA is a very, very good player I'm still not 100% certain he's the kind of player you focus your build around.

The Mavs also have another advantage in that they haven't had the injuries that have completely devalued their roster; the Blazers assets have mostly been devalued with time, not enhanced.

 

[RR7]

I see two major differences. 1. Dallas is a destination for free agents and players wishing to be traded. 2. The Mavs have a true superstar to build around. While I think LMA is a very, very good player I'm still not 100% certain he's the kind of player you focus your build around.

The Mavs also have another advantage in that they haven't had the injuries that have completely devalued their roster; the Blazers assets have mostly been devalued with time, not enhanced.

What major free agents is dallas pulling in? Who has demanded, and then been, traded to Dallas? Who has signed there recently that wasn't already there? Marion the only real one? And he was paid more than he would have gotten elsewhere. What other major player has signed there? They made trades, increasing value on players. Traded for Kidd. Traded for Terry. Butler and Haywood. Chandler. I don't see a single major signing, or player who demanded his way there.

Dirk is better than LMA. Definitely. I still think you can build around and win with LMA. Not as good as Dirk, for sure. But he is getting better, and is a top PF in the league.

As for the devaluing assets, they traded a worthless contract for Chandler. They traded a young player and picks for their starting PG. They traded a bunch of scrubs for Marion in a S&T. They traded an injured Josh Howard, and junk/expirings for Butler and Haywood. Again, looking at the construction of their team, I don't see huge assets they have used to parlay them into better pieces. They upgrade incremently. Howard to Butler. Dampier to Chandler. With expirings, and small assets. The only deal they gave up "significant" pieces would be the Harris for Kidd deal. And that could be our Batum deal. I see no reason why we can't do the same thing. And I think the wallace deal is/was the beginning. Expirings and late picks for Wallace. Maybe Wallace for someone else? Maybe he stays. Blake and Outlaw for Camby. Then, Camby for....Signing Miller. Then, Miller's unguaranteed deal for....
Etc. I don't see an advantage they used that we have not had at our disposal. They lured nobody with their city or superstar.

 

[cdub503]

dunno if this would work for minnesota let alone if they would deal with us since they think we dealt a bad martell but do this and swap 21 and the 2#?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=66dp8pj

why they do it?
-Vet in Miller
-Rudy for the Spain and rubio connection

why we do it?
-we get a PG in ridnour to start
-we get a pick
-and a back up Center???

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

To get value you have to give up value.

Miller, outside being an exp. deal, doesn't make sense for MN at all.

Rudy's value now is at an all-time low. You maybe could get a second rounder for him.

...Maybe

The #21 pick in this years draft is equivalent to a mid-second rounder in most drafts.

 

[Blaze01]

Minnesota has no bad contracts, and Wes Johnson and Michael Beasley at the 3. Why they would move #2 for batum, when they have two guys at his position is beyond me. Especially when they'd likely get better offers from other teams. Rudy? 21? That doesn't help matters.

One could ask why they (MIN) would draft 2 PG BACK TO BACK (#5 & #6) in the same draft?

Wes Johnson was HORRIBLE last year and played more SG than SF if I recall....Martell was a bust for MIN, injured and didn't play very well for them.....Beasley is a talent but also has a history of being a head case and is an RFA next year (same year as Kevin Love), not sure they have him in thier long term plans.

Kahn wanted Rudy last year instead of Martell, but Rudy said he wouldn't go...IF Rubio was coming over would he change his mind? I don't know....

I never said there was a high probability, but a package of Batum, Rudy, #21 and change might have a chance to entice MIN...

Kahn had a high interest in Batum last year...

 

[Mediocre Man]

Dallas will become much more attractive to FA's now that they have In N Out Burger