Draft time: Gut feeling

[Entity]

I'm going with: He trades out of the first round.

 

[Cake]

Bayless is a carbon copy of Jarrett Jack, only more athletic.

Bayless is almost, but not quite, completely unlike Jarrett Jack.

Horrid, horrid assessment.

I predict we end up with Ty Lawson.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I'm hoping for Flynn or Lawson, but predicting we wind up with nobody. I'm also hoping to add a good vet, but I am not betting on that either.

 

[oldmangrouch]

True. But is there really that much risk? I mean, 50 wins would still make most fans happy. Especially if Rubio were throwing a couple of crazy-good passes every game to remind us why we did it. It's half a step back to take two steps forward.

To get Rubio, we would probably have to give up LMA. That is more like 2 steps back and pray we eventually take 2 forward.

I guess it would have one advantage - the team would have an excuse besides Oden's knee to hide behind!

 

[Natebishop3]

If KP feels that Flynn is like Chris Paul, I could totally see him trading up to acquire Flynn. KP wanted Paul, but he lost out to Nash on that one.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If KP feels that Flynn is like Chris Paul, I could totally see him trading up to acquire Flynn. KP wanted Paul, but he lost out to Nash on that one.

I really hope you are right.

 

[RickyRubio]

We're trading Outlaw, Fernandez and Bayless to Memphis for Rubio and filler (Marco Jaric--he's got two years and $13 mil owed). Nate McMillan will go nuts and everybody will be scratching their heads. But it makes a ton of sense as a consolidation trade for us, and it gives Memphis a ton of options down the road.

I just made this trade up, but it's the kind of WTF thing Pritchard would do. He goes hard after the guys he wants, and I think he sees Rubio as the answer at PG for a decade (the way he saw Roy, Aldridge and Oden as the answers at three other spots). Thunder likely take Rubio at #3, so he'll do what it takes to get the man he wants at #2. It's a massive consolidation trade that nets us the best prospect, giving up a lot of quantity for quality.

We then make a run at Ron Artest. With luck and some good salesmanship on Artest we start the season with:

PG: Blake/Rubio
SG: Roy/Webster
SF: Artest/Batum
PF: Aldridge/Artest
C: Oden/Przybilla

That is a fucking kick ass team. We'd probably want to find a better backup than Webster for Roy. I expect Blake to lose the starting job by midseason, so maybe he plays a Steve Kerr role as a backup combo guard.

It'd suck to lose Fernandez and Bayless. Between them, they may combine for more all-star appearances over their careers than Rubio. But Rubio is the better fit, and the better talent. If you have the choice between a young Jason Kidd talent (Rubio), or a young duo of Stephon Marbury talent (Bayless) and Rip Hamilton talent (Fernandez), I think you have to take Kidd. Especially if you already have Brandon Roy.

(The one thing that might throw a monkeywrench into this idea is that we worked so hard to convince Fernandez to come here. Rubio will kind of be in the same boat, where he could opt to stay in Spain. Hopefully the way we handle Fernandez wouldn't impact his decision to come.)

Of course, if Webster never really recovers, we can't get Artest and Rubio takes a few years to get his footing, we're going to be kind of desperate. Maybe only get 50 wins. But if it comes together.....

I would like this deal. Hard as it would to see Rudy go. But this seems cool with me.

 

[Shooter]

Sergio to NY for TPE

Huh?

 

[mook]

To get Rubio, we would probably have to give up LMA. That is more like 2 steps back and pray we eventually take 2 forward.

If Rudy and Bayless were in this year's draft, they'd probably each be somewhere between #3 and #8. Considering Rubio doesn't want to play for Memphis (and this seems to be an increasing problem for that team) doesn't it make sense for them to add a couple of talented prospects to fill out the team?

I think Rubio may actually be worth a guy like Aldridge in 2021 when you look back over their respective careers, but given how much work he still needs, his contract issues, and the ever-available option he has to just not come to the NBA if he doesn't want to, I don't think Memphis can hope for that kind of a deal in a trade.

The problem with my idea is that Memphis already has Conley and Mayo, so where do Rudy and Bayless fit? At that point I think they do a consolidation trade themselves and package a couple of guys for an upgrade at PF or C.

 

[blue32]

my gut feeling is that Bayless is no where near a carbon copy of Jack.

secondly, he's going to be our PG for next year, or at least our 20+ minute back-up. Frye, Shav, RLF, Ruffin, are all gone.

Outlaw most likely will be packaged up for a vet pg, possibly w/blake IF the deal is right, otherwise we're going into the season with the same starting line-up as last year, but w/some different back-ups, maybe a bigger PF to replace Frye/shav.

 

[mook]

Rubio is the one guy in this draft that I want, so I wasn't referring to him per se.

The "risk" factor... I was considering that you were trading away Rudy and acquiring Artest.

Rudy mostly operated as a spot up three point shooter and finisher at the rim last year. Those are the only two things Ron Artest does well on offense. So really it's not that much of a downgrade. You could argue that we'd also be losing some basketball IQ, but with Rubio and Roy in the back court basketball IQ should never be a problem.

On the defensive end it's obviously a massive upgrade.

The only big, "Holy crap we're now not even in the playoffs!" risks I foresee is that Artest has a major meltdown and takes his team down with him (a la The Pacers Episode). This team is a lot less fragile than the Pacers were, though.

There's also the risk, I suppose, that Bayless and/or Fernandez just wind up being much better players than Rubio. Most people don't see that happening, but "most people" are sometimes wrong. But that's always a risk when you trade quantity for quality.

So the risks on the court are reasonably low, and the rewards could be amazing. Sounds like a Pritchard deal to me.

 

[LittleAlex]

KP is going to do nothing.

Yes, this.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I guess I disagree with the premise of the Smokescreen.

The player the blazers said they liked before a draft is Roy - and they took him - no smokescreen.

The blazers are said to have liked a player or two last year, but those players weren't available when Indy picked for us.

So, can you give me some examples of when KP or Nate has said they really liked a player right before the draft and then passed on that player?

 

[chris_in_pdx]

KP's gonna do nothing. Bake It!

 

[MrJayremmie]

I don't think he will do anything in the draft, but would love to be pleasantly surprised.

Don't forget about our TE though.

 

[Reep]

If Mook's scenario opens up, KP would do it. I would doubt it could happen, but who would have thought we'd get Roy and LMA?

If KP does have his eye on a free agent, then I think the pick is deferred (traded) for cap space.

My guess is that they Blazer keep their picks and take Lawson with the first, and Brockman with the first second rounder. Lawson replaces Sergio (who leaves somehow) and Brockman battles other options for the backup tough-guy spot.

 

[andalusian]

So, can you give me some examples of when KP or Nate has said they really liked a player right before the draft and then passed on that player?

Ramon Sessions.

 

[number 10]

Ramon Sessions.

do you have a link for this?

 

[andalusian]

do you have a link for this?

Not from the top of my head - but it was posted recently on the forum - it was an interview with KP (which surprised me, my memory was that Nate was very complimentary of him, and apparently it was KP).

Can't remember who posted it - but it really was within the lat month or so...

The only thing I could find with a quick Google search was:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2007/06/new_workout_schedule.html

The Blazers, I'm told, are very high on Sessions, the 6-foot-3, 190 pounder who left Nevada after his junior season. He is regarded as a pure point guard, meaning he looks to run the offense and set up teammates.

But - as I said - I read a much more detailed one about him...

 

[number 10]

I've heard the same story plenty of times, but never with a source. I'm starting to wonder if it's just some myth based on KP's mystique as a killer talent evaluator, with Nate being the easy scapegoat. Maybe it's true though. Thanks for looking.

 

[andalusian]

I've heard the same story plenty of times, but never with a source. I'm starting to wonder if it's just some myth based on KP's mystique as a killer talent evaluator, with Nate being the easy scapegoat. Maybe it's true though. Thanks for looking.

I did read something - and pretty recently, too. If memory serves - it was on the Blazer's draft_2007 site - but all that is now on there are video interviews.

 

[illmatic99]

BUMP.

KP will trade #24, and most of our 2nd round picks for a 2010 1st round pick to open up cap space this summer. He might also pick some Euros to stash. That should be the extent of the draft day activity.

The real fun begins July 1.

Told 'ya.

 

[Tince]

BUMP.



Told 'ya.

How is that "Told ya"?

Or was that a joke?

 

[illmatic99]

Or was that a joke?

Kinda. I did call the Euros thing, but my intent to bump this thread was to see how other Blazers fans fared with their predictions.

 

[TehChad]

I told ya too!

My gut feeling is that, just like last year w/Bayless, KP will trade up in the draft and get a guy that hasn't been talked about as much as others.