Think you need to sell how Brunson would help Portland specifically as opposed to his overall talent as a prospect. How would he play with Lillard or in a three guard lineup? And if he can’t, then why draft him?
1. Let's remember we're picking at 24 here. In any draft there's probably max 3 stars, max 12ish rotation players. You're lucky to get a contributor at 24. Almost certainly he will be a bench player.
2. Why 3 guard? Why not think in terms of "somebody who'd actually HELP US IN THE PLAYOFFS" (unlike Shabazz "not played at all" Napier). How about like Shaun Livingston for Golden State? Or better yet, how about Terry Rozier for the Celtics? Did they think they'd made a mistake with drafting him when they had first Thomas and then Irving?
3. I take Brunson to be a possible Derek Fisher. His worth exceeds his apparent skills. Derek Fisher ended up being a more important BBall player than (and it pains me to say this) Andre Miller. Miller was undeniably more talented, but also not a leader. Brunson oozes leadership. Beware of flashy players whose teams don't win. Brunson is nonpareil as a winner.
We’re not talking about passing on an elite talent here.
I think it's crazy to say that. This guy has been decorated all the way - McDonald's All-American, Mr. Basketball of Illinois (not like being Mr. Basketball of North Dakota, say), and PLAYER OF THE YEAR. Players like that USED to get drafted top 10. Can he score? Absolutely - he's a rock-solid shooter and he can score at the rim at a high % AND defend. And he's won state championships in high school and 2 NCAA championships in 3 years! And he's not even a Senior!
There’s a reason he’s not projected to be a high pick. Big school guys usually don’t get overlooked, especially ones with Brunsons pedigree. Draymond is almost an outlier because I can’t think of other similar examples.
That's both true and not true. There's also a "familiarity breeds contempt" factor. It's VERY common to have a guy be an exciting freshman and be projected first round, decide to go back to school, have a BETTER sophomore, and slip all the way to the second, because he's old news.
And there are a million examples:
Carlos Boozer is an example of a star, but there are a ton of players for big schools who were passed over. A lot of them are backup PGs: Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet were an all-American backcourt at Wichita State and both are now contributing NBA players, and BOTH went undrafted. Look at Quinn Cook. Also undrafted, has DEFINITELY earned himself a solid contract this year.
And neither VanVleet nor Cook has the pedigree of Brunson.
See here for a comparison. Others include TJ McConnell, Yogi Ferrell and Frank Mason III. (There's so many, in fact, that you might use this list to argue against drafting Brunson because we'll be able to get a good guard without drafting him. But we tried that with Shabazz.)
